- 3 months ago
In this episode of Statecraft, the focus is on the final negotiations of the India-US trade deal. While both nations have reached the last stages of the agreement, crucial differences remain over agricultural imports and industrial goods.
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00:07Hello and welcome, you're watching Statecraft with me Geeta Mohan.
00:10Now, can the final 1% of a trade deal become the hardest part of the entire negotiation?
00:16And can the global fight against terror financing remain free from geopolitical calculations?
00:21Tonight, two stories about power, strategy and leverage.
00:25India and the United States are closer than ever to sealing a landmark trade deal
00:29but the toughest compromises still lie ahead.
00:33And at the world global stage, India defends the FATF
00:37while raising fresh questions about whether global standards are being shaped by evidence or politics.
00:44One story of tough bargaining, the other of global accountability.
00:48All this and more, but first up, the headlines.
00:50In a major setback for US President Donald Trump,
00:53the US Supreme Court on Tuesday rejected his administration's bid to restrict birthright citizenship,
00:58preserving the constitutional guarantee of citizenship for nearly everyone born on American soil.
01:04In a 6-3 decision issued on the final day of its term,
01:07the court ruled against Trump's attempt to end automatic citizenship for children born in the United States
01:13to parents who are in the country illegally or on temporary visas.
01:20Anti-government protests have intensified in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
01:23Protesters are challenging Islamabad's authority,
01:26declaring that the POK region is not a part of Pakistan.
01:29Protests started amid food supply shortages, rising inflation and governance issues.
01:35Protesters accused the Pakistani government of deliberately restricting the movement of ration
01:39and other basic necessities.
01:41Protesters are warning that if Islamabad will not resolve the issue,
01:44then they would seek other roads.
01:48Bangladesh is witnessing an unprecedented measles outbreak with more than 100,000 reported cases
01:53and the number of suspected deaths rising to 623, according to Dhaka Tribune.
01:59The number of laboratory-confirmed measles deaths remains unchanged at 83.
02:04The country has been grappling with a sharp surge in measles cases since January 2026.
02:10U.S. Ambassador to India Sergio Gaur said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to visit
02:15the United States of America in December to attend the G20 summit.
02:19Gaur added that Washington would be delighted to welcome Prime Minister Modi for another visit.
02:31And there's some breaking news coming in at this point in time.
02:34Prime Minister Narendra Modi has spoken to President of Iran, President Masood Pazashkian,
02:40this at a time when West Asia is seeing yet another escalation in tensions between Iran and the United States
02:49of America.
02:50Prime Minister Modi in a tweet has mentioned that he has welcomed the understanding
02:57that has been reached between Iran and U.S.
02:59He also reiterated the need for continued efforts to ensure lasting peace and stability in the region
03:04and for safeguarding freedom of navigation and commerce.
03:08This does come at a time when talks are not moving forward between Iran and the United States of America.
03:14Teams and delegations from both the countries are reaching Qatar, Doha,
03:18but they're meeting Doha and officials over there, mediators over there separately.
03:23So conversations on moving forward and the peace talks between U.S. and Iran seems to have hit a roadblock.
03:31This also comes at a time when Iran is preparing for the funeral ceremony and services for late Supreme Leader
03:39Khamenei.
03:40India is going to be represented by two leaders.
03:42One is Sayyid Atta Hasnain, Governor of Bihar and Minister of State for External Affairs, Pabitra Margherita.
03:50So at a time when the funeral services are going to be held and Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself was
03:56invited,
03:56instead of going over there, he's sending a delegation, but he's spoken with the President of Iran.
04:09Iranian and U.S. negotiating teams were due to meet in Doha amid the ongoing war.
04:13However, the talks once again appear to be in doubt after Iran denied that any meeting had been scheduled.
04:19On Monday, that's June 29th, Iran issued a statement saying that no meeting with the U.S. had been arranged
04:26as renewed missile exchanges from both sides over the weekend tested the interim ceasefire aimed at ending the war.
04:34Although Iran is sending a technical delegation to Doha later this week, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ismail Bagai said the visit
04:41was unrelated to the American's trip and that no talks between the two sides had been scheduled so far.
04:46On the other hand, White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt confirmed on Monday that a high-level meeting on Iran
04:53would be held in Doha on Tuesday with President Donald Trump's top envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner attending.
05:00The disagreement over whether the two sides would even meet underscored the fragility of the June 17th accord to pause
05:08a conflict that has disrupted global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
05:13Iran has requested a meeting this week, so Special Envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner will be flying to Doha for
05:19high-level meetings this week as we continue to discuss the memorandum of understanding.
05:24On the sidelines of those high-level talks will be the technical talks.
05:28So as far as we're concerned, we're holding up our end of the ceasefire.
05:31The big story that's upcoming next week, the state funeral of Iran's second supreme leader, which is expected to take
05:38place over a six-day period in cities including Tehran, Qom and Mashhad and Iraq, Karbala, Najaf.
05:46Four months after his assassination, Ali Khamenei will be laid to rest on the 9th of July near the shrine
05:52of Imam Reza in the holy city of Mashhad.
05:55The official mourning ceremonies are scheduled to begin on the 4th of July.
05:59Prime Minister Narendra Modi will not be attending the funeral, although there was an invitation that was extended to him.
06:04Iranian President Masood Pazashkian had personally invited PM Modi to attend the funeral ceremony.
06:10According to sources, former Bihar Governor Sayyed Atta Hasnen and Minister of State for External Affairs Pabitra Margarita will represent
06:17India at the funeral of the Iranian leader.
06:19The multi-day funeral is expected to draw world leaders and other international dignitaries.
06:25However, one question remains unanswered.
06:28Will Mojitabak Khamenei, the current supreme leader, attend his father's funeral?
06:32The physical absence of the new supreme leader has raised questions about his whereabouts.
06:38He may answer those questions by attending his father's funeral.
06:41After 18 months of bargaining, countless meetings and enough paperwork to fill a warehouse, India and the United States have
06:49reached the final step of one of their biggest trade negotiations.
06:52Only 1 or 2% of the deal remains.
06:55Prime Minister Narendra Modi is said to travel to the United States for the G20 summit later this year.
07:00And both sides would prefer to arrive with a trade breakthrough rather than another unfinished negotiations.
07:07Sounds easy?
07:08Not even close.
07:09In trade diplomacy, the last 1% is where everyone stops smiling.
07:14President Trump wants a victory.
07:15Prime Minister Modi wants a fair deal.
07:17Businesses want certainty, but nobody wants to give away the final inch.
07:22So why is this tiny gap proving so stubborn?
07:25What exactly are both sides fighting over?
07:28And what does this reveal about India-US relations under Trump's second presidency?
07:33The first reason is simple.
07:35This isn't just about selling more products.
07:37Both governments see this as something much bigger.
07:40Officials from both countries describe the deal as the foundation for cooperation in technology, defense, energy, manufacturing, artificial intelligence, biotechnology
07:51and semiconductors.
07:53In other words, tariffs may start the conversation, but they definitely don't end it.
07:58American ambassador to India, Sergio Gore, says the agreement sits in its final steps.
08:03According to him, almost everything is done.
08:06The U.S. trade representative even spent two full days in New Delhi trying to wrap things up.
08:11His message is straightforward.
08:13The finish line is right there.
08:15So what's actually stopping the deal, not the big picture?
08:19Both governments already agree that they need each other.
08:22The fight is over the details.
08:24And in trade negotiations, details always hurt the most.
08:29Take agriculture.
08:30The United States wants wider access for products like corn, soybeans, wheat, ethanol, dairy, alcohol and several farm exports.
08:38India refuses to throw the doors open.
08:41Why?
08:41Because millions of Indian farmers depend on those sectors.
08:45Cheap imports can hit domestic producers hard.
08:48And no government wants to explain to farmers why foreign products suddenly flood the market.
08:54Then comes industrial goods.
08:56Washington wants lower barriers on products like automobiles and auto parts, pharmaceuticals and medical equipment.
09:03India wants to protect key domestic industries while still expanding trade.
09:07Both sides want access to each other's markets.
09:11Neither side wants to give away too much.
09:14And then there's Trump's negotiating style.
09:17Trump doesn't treat tariffs as just taxes.
09:20He treats them like poker chips.
09:22Market access comes with conditions.
09:24Concessions come first.
09:26Rewards come later.
09:27That makes every trading partner cautious, including India.
09:32New Delhi knows that today's agreement has to survive tomorrow's politics.
09:35Nobody wants to sign a deal only to discover the rules changed six months later.
09:41That's why officials keep saying only one or two percent remains.
09:44On paper, that sounds tiny.
09:47In reality, that last one percent contains the most politically explosive issues.
09:53The framework is almost done.
09:55The toughest compromises aren't.
09:57That tells India something important.
09:59Even close partners don't get free passes.
10:02Friendship helps.
10:03It doesn't replace negotiation.
10:05Yet India hasn't walked away.
10:07Why?
10:07Because America remains India's largest market.
10:11Trade between the two countries has exploded from roughly $20 billion two decades ago to nearly $250 billion today.
10:19Both governments now aim for $500 billion before the decade ends.
10:24Walking away from that opportunity makes little sense.
10:28There's another reason this deal matters.
10:30China.
10:31Nobody at the summit tried to hide it.
10:33American officials openly spoke about diversifying supply chains beyond China.
10:38They described India as a critical partner.
10:40Companies also see the same trend.
10:43They want alternatives.
10:45India wants investment.
10:47America wants resilient supply chains.
10:49Suddenly, both countries find themselves chasing the same objective from different directions.
10:55That's why officials keep repeating that trade doesn't move alone.
10:59Trade grows when supply chains improve, investment increases, innovation expands, manufacturing rises, and skilled workers move more freely.
11:08Lower tariffs help, but they don't build an entire economic relationship by themselves.
11:13So what does all this reveal about Trump's second presidency?
11:17The relationship looks stronger, but it also looks far more transactional.
11:21Personal chemistry between Trump and Modi still matters.
11:24Sergio Gorr even pointed to that relationship as an important driver.
11:28But personal rapport only opens the door.
11:31The actual negotiations happen across the table.
11:35America wants strategic gains.
11:37India wants economic gains.
11:39Both want closer cooperation.
11:40Both also protect their own interests first.
11:43That isn't hostility.
11:45That's business.
11:46So is this becoming a stronger partnership or merely a more transactional one?
11:51The answer is both.
11:53The partnership grows because both countries need each other more than before.
11:57Technology, manufacturing, energy, defense, and supply chains all push them closer together.
12:03But every step comes with a calculator.
12:06Every concession has a price.
12:08Every handshake comes after hard bargaining.
12:12And judging by the final 1%, neither side plans to give it away for free.
12:17A new Japanese Prime Minister are changing Indo-Pacific and a partnership entering a critical new phase.
12:24As Sanaita Kaichi begins her first official visit to India, both nations are looking to strengthen ties on energy, technology,
12:31infrastructure,
12:32and regional security at a time of growing geopolitical uncertainty.
12:36Will this summit redefine the future of the India-Japan relationship?
12:41Harish Mishra with this report.
12:50A new Japanese Prime Minister, a first visit to India, and a lot riding on it.
12:56Sanaita Kaichi will travel to New Delhi from July 1st to 3rd.
13:00She'll attend the 16th India-Japan annual summit.
13:04It's her first official visit to India since taking office.
13:07She'll meet Prime Minister Modi.
13:09The two leaders will discuss defense, trade, technology, clean energy, and regional security.
13:16So why does this visit matter so much right now?
13:19Because the world around both countries has changed.
13:22The US-Israel-Iran war triggered a global energy crisis.
13:26The Strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point, has seen selective closures.
13:31That route carries nearly a fifth of the world's oil and gas.
13:34Asia takes the biggest hit.
13:37India, China, Japan, and South Korea together account for almost 70% of crude flowing through that strait.
13:44Japan imports 80% of its energy.
13:47So this crisis hit Tokyo hard too.
13:50In response, Japan launched something called Power Asia.
13:53It's a new initiative.
13:55$10 billion pledged to help Asian nations facing fuel shortages.
13:59Japan also released 80 million barrels from its own reserves as part of a global effort to stabilize markets.
14:06This is the backdrop to Takaichi's visit.
14:09Energy security will be front and center.
14:11But it's not just energy.
14:13Japan has committed to investing 10 trillion yen into India.
14:17That's roughly $70 billion.
14:20Over the next decade, it's part of something called the Joint Vision 2035.
14:25Semiconductors, artificial intelligence, hydrogen, green ammonia, all on the table.
14:31Now, here's a part of this story that often gets missed.
14:34Japan's quiet but serious investment in India's Northeast.
14:38Why the Northeast?
14:40Because Tokyo sees it as a bridge.
14:42A bridge connecting South Asia to Southeast Asia.
14:46It fits perfectly into Japan's vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific.
14:50Japan has signed skilling agreements with Meghalaya, with Assam, with Nagaland.
14:55Chief ministers from across the Northeast have visited Japan.
14:59JICA, Japan's development agency, has funded roads, bridges, even disaster resilience projects across the region.
15:06And then there's a strategic angle too.
15:09A stronger, more connected Northeast India is also a quiet counterbalance.
15:13A counterbalance to China's growing footprint in the wider neighborhood.
15:17Neither India nor Japan frames this as an alliance against Beijing.
15:22But let's be honest, China's assertiveness in the East China Sea, in the Indo-Pacific,
15:27is absolutely a factor driving India and Japan closer together.
15:31So what's the bigger picture here?
15:33India and Japan aren't just deepening trade ties.
15:36They're building a long-term multi-layered partnership.
15:40One that spans energy, technology, infrastructure.
15:43And yes, strategic positioning against an uncertain regional order.
15:48The Kaiji's visit isn't just diplomatic protocol.
15:51It's a signal.
15:52A signal that both nations see each other as indispensable at a moment when the Indo-Pacific is changing fast.
16:00With Harsh Mishra, Bureau Report, India Today Global.
16:03Can a country that once pushed for the toughest global scrutiny of Pakistan now become its biggest diplomatic obstacle?
16:11That question is at the heart of a growing debate after India mounted a robust defense of the Financial Action
16:18Task Force, or FATF, at the United Nations.
16:21Without naming Pakistan, New Delhi delivered a sharp message.
16:25Those who question FATF's credibility, India said, are often those who fear its scrutiny.
16:31But behind that statement lies a much bigger geopolitical story.
16:35A story of Pakistan's years on the FATF grey list.
16:39America's crucial role in keeping it there.
16:41And why the same U.S. is now increasingly seen as the biggest hurdle to putting Pakistan back under global
16:48financial watch.
16:49Speaking at a UN Counterterrorism Week side event, India's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, P. Harish,
16:56described FATF as an indispensable pillar in the global fight against terror financing.
17:02He said, the body's work is technical, evidence-based, and rooted in internationally accepted standards.
17:09Harish added that attempts to undermine FATF's credibility often reflect fear of scrutiny rather than genuine concerns about process.
17:17It was a thinly veiled reference to Pakistan, a country India's long accused of allowing terrorist groups and their financial
17:25networks to operate from its territory.
17:28India's message did not stop there.
17:30It argued that countries facing FATF scrutiny should stop questioning the watchdog and start complying with its standards.
17:38In other words, the answer is not political rhetoric.
17:41It is credible action.
17:42That statement carries weight because Pakistan knows exactly what FATF's scrutiny can mean.
17:48For years, from 2018 to 2022, Islamabad remained on the organization's grey list,
17:54a designation that placed it under increased international monitoring over deficiencies in tackling money, money laundering, and terror financing.
18:03Being placed on the FATF grey list does not trigger sanctions, but it comes at a heavy cost.
18:09It raises concerns among global investors, complicates access to international finance,
18:15and increases pressure from institutions such as the IMF or International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
18:21Pakistan remained under enhanced monitoring until FATF concluded in 2022 that it had substantially completed its action plans.
18:30Only then was Islamabad's remove from the grey list after on-site verification of the reforms it had committed to
18:37implement.
18:37But there is another dimension often overlooked.
18:41Pakistan did not remain on the grey list simply because India wanted it there.
18:45FATF decisions are taken collectively by member jurisdictions,
18:49and during those critical years, one of the strongest supporters of keeping pressure on Pakistan was the United States of
18:56America.
18:57At the time, Washington was deeply concerned about terrorist financing, safe havens for extremist groups,
19:03and Pakistan's role in the wider security landscape surrounding Afghanistan.
19:08The American position during that period aligned with broader international demands for verifiable action against terrorist financing networks.
19:16Successive FATF reviews required Pakistan to investigate, prosecute, and dismantle financing channels linked to UN-designated terrorist organizations.
19:25Until those benchmarks were met, the pressure continued.
19:29Today, however, geopolitical landscape has shifted.
19:33The U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan marked a turning point in Washington's regional priorities.
19:38As strategic calculations evolved, Pakistan gradually regained relevance for the U.S.
19:43From discussions around access to critical minerals in Balochistan and regional connectivity to its potential role in easing tensions during
19:52the Iran crisis,
19:53Islamabad is once again being viewed through a broader strategic lens, particularly under the Trump administration.
20:01That has fueled questions over whether Washington would support any future attempt to return Pakistan to the grey list with
20:08the same determination it displayed just a few years ago.
20:11India, meanwhile, is signalling that the issue should never become a matter of geopolitics.
20:17At the United Nations, Ambassador Harish warned that new technologies, social media platforms, and crowdfunding mechanisms are making terror financing
20:26more sophisticated.
20:27He also pointed to the role of certain state actors in enabling these networks, another unmistakable reference to Pakistan.
20:36For India, terrorists and those who finance them are part of the same ecosystem, and global standards, New Delhi argues,
20:45must apply equally to everyone.
20:47India's growing influence within FATF also comes at a significant moment.
20:51For the first time, India has secured the vice presidency of the organization, with Union Culture Secretary Vivek Agarwal set
20:58to serve from July 2026 to June 2027.
21:02The development comes amid reports that India may seek renewed international scrutiny of Pakistan if evidence warrants such a move.
21:11FATF's grey list currently includes jurisdictions under increased monitoring, requiring them to address strategic deficiencies within agreed timelines.
21:21So India's latest intervention is about more than one statement at the United Nations.
21:26It is a reminder that FATF was created to judge evidence, not political narratives.
21:31It is also a reminder that global positions can change.
21:35The United States once stood among the strongest voices demanding sustained pressure on Pakistan through FATF.
21:42Whether that result still exists is now a question shaped as much by geopolitics as by counterterrorism.
21:49But India's position remains unchanged.
21:52If a country wants to escape scrutiny, New Delhi says the solution is not to attack the watchdog.
21:57The solution is to stop giving the world reasons to investigate in the first place.
22:03That's all in this edition of Statecraft.
22:05But before we go, Tasmania's most famous annual visitor is back.
22:10Neil the Seal, a 2,200-pound southern elephant seal, has once again wandered into populated areas,
22:16something he seems to do every year, stopping traffic and delighting crowds along the way.
22:21The internet's famous marine giant has also developed a rather unusual rivalry.
22:26Traffic cones appear to be his mortal enemy, with videos often showing him shoving them aside.
22:32Take a look at the visuals, enjoy, goodnight and take care.
23:05Music