- 3 months ago
The US and Iran have agreed to a draft framework aimed at ending the ongoing West Asia conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
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00:01So, let's raise the big question that I've been asked across the world tonight.
00:05Has Iran emerged stronger from this West Asia crisis?
00:08Has the U.S. under Donald Trump buckled under pressure?
00:12Will Israel honor the U.S.-Iran pact?
00:15Who really has gained the upper hand in the U.S.-Iran deal?
00:18Can Donald Trump claim victory of sorts?
00:21Those are some of the questions I will ask.
00:24And we've got guests from all the stakeholders.
00:26Ali Salehan is senior researcher in Tehran.
00:29Brigadier General Yossi Kuperwasser is chief Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security in Tel Aviv.
00:35Richard Painter is author, U.S. Presidency, power, responsibility and accountability,
00:40former White House ethics lawyer.
00:42Navdeep Singh Suri, former ambassador of India to the United Arab Emirates.
00:47Let me ask all of you that first big question that we pose.
00:51Who really has benefited from this deal being struck at this moment?
00:55Richard Painter, since America is the one which is seen to have Donald Trump is already claiming some kind of
01:02a victory.
01:03Do you believe it is that or is it, as critics are suggesting,
01:06America finally capitulating, not achieving any of its objectives?
01:12Well, first of all, we should emphasize that the entire world benefits from an end to this war.
01:21The price of oil has skyrocketed.
01:24Many countries in Asia are dependent on oil coming through the Straits of Hormuz.
01:29The skyrocketing price of oil and gasoline in the United States is having a severe impact on our economy,
01:37even though the United States does not import a lot of its oil through the Straits of Hormuz.
01:43Ending this war should be a priority for all nations involved.
01:55And I think, in the long run, the United States is going to insist on that, and so is Israel.
02:05Iran should not be developing a nuclear weapons program.
02:08Iran needs to live peacefully with its neighbors, and that includes Israel, which, even though it's not neighboring, bordering on
02:16Iran,
02:17is an important country in the Middle East.
02:19But ending this war right now is the priority for the United States, should be.
02:25The war is deeply unpopular in the United States and for good reason.
02:29So let's hope this peace deal sticks and that we're able to move toward a final resolution of the issues
02:37surrounding the sanctions against Iran
02:40and Iran committing itself to peaceful relations with countries in the region, including Israel, and not pursuing nuclear weapons.
02:49But may I still push you for a moment?
02:51I know you're saying that you don't want to look at winners and losers at this stage.
02:54The world benefits from the end to the war. I think the world agrees with that, including us here in
03:00India.
03:00But do you believe that Donald Trump has actually gained in any of his strategic objectives?
03:05If you recall, the war started with reports that Trump wanted regime change.
03:11He thought there would be a quick war. He would dismantle the Iranian leadership and effect a regime change.
03:15That's not happened. He expected that Iran would fully dismantle its nuclear program.
03:20We still don't know whether that's going to happen.
03:22And what we've seen instead over the last 107 days is chaos.
03:26So I'm just trying to understand.
03:28Do you believe that Donald Trump has achieved any of his strategic objectives?
03:33Well, first of all, the United States has no business calling for regime change in another country.
03:38And so that rhetoric calling for regime change in Iran was setting a goal that's unobtainable.
03:45That's where the Iranian people decide what the government is there.
03:48So the United States has failed if the United States sought to change the government in Iran.
03:53And I think everybody knew that was going to fail from day one.
03:57We have yet to see what happens with the nuclear program in Iran.
04:01But it's going to be absolutely critical in the long run, if we want peace in the region, that Iran
04:07abandon the goal of obtaining nuclear weapons.
04:12Absolutely critical.
04:14And we'll see what happens there.
04:16But it's not, again, about whether we're a winner or a loser.
04:21In war, they're almost always come out of a war with everybody being the loser in the vast majority of
04:28wars that we thought in this century and in the last.
04:31And ending this war is the way for us and Iran and the other countries in the region to at
04:38least do something to salvage our economic situation as well as our diplomatic relations around the world.
04:46Let me bring in Ali Salehan to get the view from Tehran.
04:49How does Tehran see this?
04:51107 days, your supreme leader was assassinated, Ali Khamenei, at the start of the war.
04:58You've lost a number of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders.
05:01The country has suffered economically, financially.
05:05Can you really say at the end of the war that Iran has won in any way?
05:10Or as Mr. Painter put it, there are no winners here?
05:16I think if you want to answer this question, we should ask that.
05:20Why actually?
05:21What was the main goal of the United States and Israel to initiate this kind of attack?
05:28If we check out all sources about it, we can find out.
05:33For example, one of the things that's more related to your program is that Prime Minister Moody,
05:39to its latest and recent travel to Israel received some information and then it was public that Western,
05:50especially Israel and America, felt that if they start any kind of military action,
05:56they can wrap up the whole story of the Islamic Republic in less than four days.
06:01The current situation, if you just list the goals of, you know, United States and Israel,
06:08from regime change to eliminating the enriched uranium, to eliminating the military capability of Iran,
06:15to, you know, opening of Serata Pormos, all of them, if you consider the list of the strategic goals of
06:23United States,
06:24all of them are not achieved by the military. Do you know why?
06:29Because actually we think it's not America's first policy.
06:33America don't have any national interest in doing so.
06:36This is why, for example, as the American colleague mentioned,
06:40that it's not a popular war in America.
06:43But it's more Israel issue that we can see that how...
06:48So you believe that it was Israel that was prosecuting this war?
06:51Israel, which was the one which was driving this war.
06:55And you believe those objectives have not been achieved.
06:58What started off as regime changes ended up with a desperate need to open the Strait of Hormuz.
07:02Am I correct?
07:04Yeah, it's obvious, you know, it's crystal clear.
07:08The military capability of Iran is alive.
07:11This is why, for example, it can actually close the Strait of Hormuz.
07:15The old, you know, slogans and, you know, something like that.
07:19We are illuminating the navels of Iran.
07:22If any experts around the world knew that the whole power, military power of Iran is not a symmetric one.
07:29It's more emphasized an asymmetric one.
07:32This is why, for example, they invested in a military, in a ballistic missile, in a, you know, fast boats,
07:37in drones.
07:38And they actually don't have any powerful...
07:42But you've taken, you know, but I know that there was asymmetric power, but you've taken a huge hit as
07:47well.
07:48Do you concede that Iran has taken a huge hit in these 107 days or not?
07:53That your military machine has been significantly undermined?
07:59You know, this is a war.
08:00We know that when you are actually imposed an unprovoked war against you, there is a hit and teeth for
08:07theft.
08:08We know that.
08:08But the things that, you know, the first one, it means the goals of the invaders and the person who
08:15actually tried to find another Venezuelan Middle East is totally failure.
08:20The second one is the resilience side.
08:22We know that this war is the war of endurance.
08:24Each party that can resist more can achieve more goals in its political and in the diplomatic, you know.
08:32Okay.
08:34I take your point in a way from an Iranian perspective.
08:37But Brigadier General Yossi Kuperwasser, you just heard.
08:40Tehran and a large part of the Middle East believe that this war was prosecuted by Benjamin Netanyahu.
08:46America went along with it for whatever reason and that's not clear even now why Donald Trump agreed to go
08:53the whole hog.
08:53But the truth of the matter is, even today, as we speak, Israel is occupying a large part of Lebanon.
09:01The Iranians are insisting that Lebanon is not part, that Lebanon is part of a peace deal, that Israel cannot
09:09target Lebanon or occupied territory in Lebanon.
09:12How do you see it?
09:13From an Israeli perspective, has this war achieved any of the strategic objectives that were set off in late February?
09:22Well, I think that we have to distinguish between goals that are achievable and all kinds of hopes and wishes.
09:31Not everything that you hope or wish for can be achieved, but the goals that were achievable were achieved.
09:37We managed to cause a lot of damage to the Iranian leadership.
09:40We managed to cause a lot of damage to the nuclear facilities of Iran.
09:44We managed to cause a lot of damage to the production facilities of ballistic missiles in Iran.
09:49And we hit Hezbollah in a very impressive way.
09:55That said, the wishes of making sure that Iran has a regime change is a wish that cannot be fulfilled
10:05through the use of air power.
10:09But didn't Benjamin Netanyahu know that, sir?
10:13When Benjamin Netanyahu said at the start of the war that he expected Iran to capitulate and that he expected
10:20regime change?
10:22No, I don't think he expected regime change done directly by the attack.
10:27He expected that the Iranian people will have the opportunity to bring about a regime change.
10:31And this didn't happen.
10:33And that's definitely something that still can happen if the Iranian people will decide to take their fate in their
10:39hands.
10:40But during the war as a result, now you've got Israel targeting Lebanon, Beirut every day, claiming that they're targeting
10:47Hezbollah as a right to self-defense.
10:50Do you believe as a result of the peace deal, will Israel abandon that?
10:54Will Israel now retreat back into Israeli territory or will you retain the parts of Lebanon as a buffer zone?
11:01No, I think we should retain the 10 kilometers inside Lebanon as a buffer zone until we see that Hezbollah
11:07is disarmed or redeployed in a way that is keeping away from the southern part of Lebanon.
11:14That's the way it's going to happen.
11:18And so the bombings will continue?
11:20Will the bombings of Hezbollah targets continue?
11:24If there is a necessity for that, if they are going to threaten us, we are going to keep taking
11:28action against them.
11:29I think even today there was an attack.
11:32And whenever we see a threat from Hezbollah, we shall do what's necessary in order to protect ourselves.
11:36It's our right of self-defense and we shall continue to practice it.
11:40And this is according to the ceasefire agreement we have with the government of Lebanon under the auspices of the
11:46United States itself.
11:47So we are not going to breach any agreement we have concluded with our partners and we are going to
11:54continue to abide by it.
11:55I hope that Hezbollah is going to keep away from southern Lebanon.
11:58There's not going to be any need for us to take action against Hezbollah.
12:02But let me say one word about the nuclear project.
12:05This is still to be seen.
12:06The jury is still out.
12:08We don't know what's going to happen with the nuclear issue.
12:10President Trump keeps saying, and this was the main reason, not Netanyahu, but the main reason President Trump went to
12:15this war was in order to make sure that Iran doesn't have the capability to produce nuclear weapons ever in
12:21the future.
12:22That is the purpose. And this is why it's so important to see the details of what's going to be
12:26signed on Friday and the outcome of ongoing negotiations that are expected for the next 60 days.
12:38Because the draft mentioned the suspension of sanctions on oil sales, the reaching a final agreement on nuclear issues within
12:4760 days of signing the deal and the release of $24 billion in frozen assets during this 60 day negotiation
12:55period.
12:56Therefore, in a way, there's still no clarity on what exactly happens to Iran's nuclear program.
13:04Nadeep Suri, given that, do you believe there are winners and losers at all in this war?
13:10How do you see the state of play at the end of a 107 day war?
13:16You know, I said it in the beginning, Rajdeep, that this was an illegal and pointless war.
13:23If you are today saying that nuclear issue was the key issue for Israel and for the United States, then
13:30why wasn't Oman given a chance when it was so close to a breakthrough?
13:34You know, the Omani foreign minister went public to plead, give diplomacy a chance.
13:39And after all of this wanton destruction that has been unleashed on the global economy, on India itself, on the
13:47Indian economy, let us not speak of others, you are still going back to diplomacy.
13:54So, to that extent, you know, this was really an aggression that was uncalled for.
14:02And it has left, ironically, Israel in the worst position.
14:06So, in a relative way…
14:08How do you say it's left Israel in a worst position?
14:11I will come to that.
14:12And I was going to say that I agree with Richard that in a war, everybody loses, but some are
14:18losing more than others.
14:19Israel certainly today, if you look at the debates taken within Israel itself, Prime Minister Netanyahu is being roundly critiqued
14:28for having let the country's security down, for flaunting his relationship with President Trump and then not getting the deal
14:36he wanted.
14:37Israel is being dragged into this kicking and screaming.
14:40The United States has come out poorly because it has lost the notion that a superpower could impose its will
14:48on a smaller, weaker country by sheer force of military arms.
14:53That has not worked.
14:54And so, in a relative scale, Iran has probably come out better than Israel and the United States.
15:03But, you know, it's interesting the way you're putting it.
15:07I just want to put one graphic, though, as to why the world is celebrating at the moment.
15:11Oil prices have already tumbled, Mr. Suri, after the Iran-US deal.
15:15Brent crude price, dollar per barrel, has gone down.
15:19It's come down to $83.1.
15:22Remember, it had gone up at one stage to $120 during the war.
15:26That's to the benefit of countries like India.
15:29Did this war somewhere turn, according to you, Mr. Suri, once Iran leveraged the Strait of Hormuz?
15:35That's really where this war turned.
15:38In the early days of the war, with Ali Khamenei being assassinated,
15:41a number of other Iranian leaders being taken out,
15:44it appeared that the United States was prosecuting this war with great aggression.
15:49The moment Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, the world reacted in shock.
15:54And that's where the asymmetry of power suggests that Iran has got a weapon,
15:58has weaponized the Strait of Hormuz.
16:00Would you agree with that?
16:02Yes, and it is a serious development because the Strait of Hormuz is not the only international waterway
16:09that is subject to a chokehold or a stranglehold.
16:12Tomorrow, if Morocco decides to do the same with the Strait of Gibraltar,
16:16Turkey decides to do something similar with the Bosphorus.
16:20Indonesia vaguely floated the idea of doing something like that in Malacca.
16:24You will bring global commerce to a grinding halt.
16:28You know, you do not want a lawless international regime.
16:32It is unfortunate that countries like America are the first ones to break the law when it suits them.
16:36But I think we will eventually have to come to a UN-driven arrangement
16:43and not one that is unilaterally imposed by Iran or Iran in coordination with Oman
16:49because that is completely in violation of international law.
16:53So we still don't know that.
16:54Just to press that, we still don't know, Mr. Suri,
16:57whether Iran will open up the Strait of Hormuz right away,
17:01although the US president says so,
17:03and whether they will do it under certain conditions.
17:05Am I correct?
17:08Right.
17:09The worry, I think, is the statements that are coming out of Tehran
17:13that post the 60-day period, they will have the right to impose fees,
17:20which runs counter to the notion that it is an international waterway
17:25and there is free passage for commerce.
17:28You know, given what you've just said,
17:30Mr. Benta, you see, all of this seems to suggest that,
17:33many of our guests suggest that the United States went into this war,
17:37as Mr. Suri says, unprovoked act of aggression or needless.
17:41It was not necessary when diplomacy was winning out.
17:45In that sense, and as you rightly said,
17:47in America there has been growing pressure to end this war.
17:51Do you believe that Donald Trump has undermined US power as a result of prosecuting this war?
17:58Is this going to be seen as the moment that Donald Trump got his aggressive policies badly wrong?
18:07It may have worked in Venezuela.
18:09It didn't work in Iran.
18:12Well, President Trump had no right to start this war under United States law and our Constitution
18:20without consulting with Congress first.
18:23Congress has the power to declare war, not the President of the United States.
18:27It's right there in our Constitution.
18:29The President can act defensively if we are attacked.
18:32But we were not attacked in this situation.
18:35He needed to go to Congress.
18:36The reason he did not go to Congress is he would not have received support in Congress
18:40because the vast majority of Americans did not, do not support this war.
18:47That's the problem here.
18:50So, in hindsight, his policy of unilateralism, Mr. Bainter, has it taken a big hit?
18:56Will it now make him a little bit more circumspect?
19:00Because there was talk in the middle, he will now go into Cuba.
19:02He will look at other countries where he wants to establish US dominance.
19:07Would he be more cautious now?
19:09I have no idea whether President Trump will be cautious or not.
19:13Caution is generally not his trademark.
19:16And that's for him to decide, but he's getting himself in some serious political trouble.
19:21His poll numbers are way down.
19:23And, again, the vast majority of the American people do not support this war,
19:27do not support the United States getting dragged into conflict in the Middle East.
19:32And we're tired of extremists on all sides, the extremists who say that Israel has no right
19:36to exist within its 1967 borders, the extremists who insist that we ought to try to impose regime
19:43change on Iran somehow, and that we need more military deployment by the United States getting involved
19:50in the military in the conflict in the Middle East.
19:54And, you know, we are an ally of Israel.
19:56We will help Israel defend itself.
19:59But we do not need to get involved in wars where we are bombing other countries.
20:05This was not a decision by the prime minister of Israel for the United States.
20:10This was a decision by the president of the United States acting on his own accord
20:15without the consent of the United States Congress, probably in violation of international law as well.
20:21It's not ending well.
20:22Now, that being said, the government of Iran needs to understand,
20:25they need to recognize Israel's right to exist within its 1967 borders
20:30if they want to have peace in the region.
20:32And if they don't and they continue to pursue a plan to develop nuclear weapons,
20:36they're going to end up in a very catastrophic conflict with Israel.
20:41But the United States needs to stay out of this situation.
20:44We don't rule the world that we can't reestablish the British Empire or something like it
20:49where the United States is trying to figure out who is on the right side,
20:54who is on the wrong side of the Middle East, and then we deploy our troops.
20:57And we only make matters worse when we do that.
21:00And that's the view of the vast majority of the American people and the United States Congress.
21:04Okay. Interestingly put, Ali Salehan, is there going to be at least some introspection also on the part of Tehran
21:12that just as America may have to introspect, so does Tehran.
21:16You have exported terror.
21:18Groups like Hezbollah, groups like Hamas have exported.
21:21The Houthis have exported terror.
21:23Is there a recognition that you cannot pursue this policy anymore that Israel doesn't have the right to exist?
21:29The moment you do and speak the language of extremism,
21:32you will also find yourself increasingly isolated even within the Muslim world.
21:40First of all, to the comments to, you know, American colleagues.
21:44If you start a war, unless and, you know, despite the assessment of your security official,
21:53just a person like Tursi Govard mentioned explicitly in Sonat's, you know, hearing that there is no any sign of,
22:01you know, militarization of nuclear program of Iran, and you are starting to war unless and despite,
22:09you know, based on the approval rating of your people, despite the slogans just of...
22:16Forget the Americans. Forget the Americans for a moment. Give me an Iran. Give me...
22:21Will there be introspection in Iran? Will anything change?
22:26Will you abandon the nuclear...
22:28Will there be a recognition that your nuclear program is seen by many countries as a threat?
22:34Okay. Just give me a moment. If you frame this kind of truth as an ally, it's more just like
22:40a puppet.
22:41You can change, you must change it if you want to achieve a kind of sustainable peace in a region.
22:46To your question, you know, it's my... I've tried to send it to multiple colleagues in the region
22:52and in the Western world, that the main idea of resistance is actually not created by Islamic Republic of Iran.
23:00It's actually created by the oppression. If oppression, you know, halted in a different part of the world,
23:09especially Palestine, the whole meaning of resistance would stop any kind of action.
23:14We know that the resistance in Palestine is actually started much here before even the,
23:19you know, Islamic Republic of Iran. If they have any concern about Islamic movements
23:25or the, you know, resistance movement, they have only one of them. Just start the oppression.
23:32We know that actually this operation captured more territory in southern port of the Loblan.
23:38It's captured Golan Heights. It's captured Syria. It's captured even Gaza.
23:42It's based on this, you know, based on, you know, something like that.
23:48So you're saying it's...
23:50You're saying it's Israel which has been capturing territory and that's resulted in what you're calling a resistance movement, not
23:56terrorism.
23:58Brigitte Cooper Wasser, you want to respond to that?
24:01I'm asking you, will there be introspection in Israel as well?
24:05Will there be a recognition that maybe Netanyahu has also pushed too hard and tried in some way or the
24:11other?
24:11We've seen what there, what has happened in Gaza, the kind of destruction that's taken place there.
24:16We're seeing what's happening in Lebanon. Will Israel pull back or not?
24:21Well, I'm sure that there's going to be some soul searching in Israel because all these wishes were not fulfilled
24:26and there's going to be a soul searching to see what went wrong and why did it go wrong so
24:33much.
24:35That's our second nature.
24:39Will Israel realize that if you bomb civilian populations in Gaza, if you do that in Lebanon, Israel will also
24:48lose sympathy?
24:49We don't bomb civilian populations neither in Gaza nor in Lebanon nor anywhere else.
24:55Sir, look at the thousands who've died in Gaza. Thousands of civilians.
25:00Many, many of them were terrorists and the others were, many of the others, there were some mistakes, but many
25:05of the others...
25:05Thousands of women and children said they were not terrorists.
25:10We killed in Gaza something like 25,000 terrorists, so it's quite a lot out of the total number of
25:18casualties.
25:19And many of the others were killed because they were next to the terrorists that were hiding amongst them.
25:26But that put aside, I think that the issue of oppression that our colleague from Iran was speaking about
25:32Israel is the mere existence of Israel. For him, this is oppression.
25:37So if he's ready to accept that Israel has the right to exist as a Jewish state, then we don't
25:43have any problems.
25:44Then we can argue with what are the exact...
25:47Okay, so you're saying there should be a recognition of Israel's right to exist at the very least.
25:52Your point is taken to that extent.
25:54But I want to give Nadeep Suri, therefore, a final word.
25:58Give me a final word from an Indian perspective.
26:00There's a belief that India has aligned itself during this war way too closely to the American-Israeli axis in
26:08a way.
26:09And only later on we tried to play a more balanced role.
26:13In the meanwhile, Pakistan is the one that's going to be on the high table.
26:17It was Shabazz Sharif who announced that this deal had been struck and he's reportedly also going to be playing
26:24a major role in Geneva.
26:25Do you believe that that is something that should concern us?
26:28The fact that maybe we were aligned too closely to one side and Pakistan turns out to play the role
26:34of peacemaker?
26:35A quick response.
26:37I agree that we have compromised our traditional position of neutrality when it comes to conflicts in West Asia.
26:46We've always taken pride in our ability to maintain close relations with different parties even if those parties are in
26:55conflict with each other.
26:56We've had great relations with Iran and the Gulf and with Israel.
27:00And I don't think there was any need for us to take sides the way we have.
27:06And in the process of choosing sides, we have taken our eyes off the ball.
27:15We've ceded space to Pakistan and others.
27:17And, you know, I would just point out that there is a reality of Iran.
27:22We may or may not like the government in place, but there's a reality of Iran as a near neighbor
27:28with which we have civilizational ties.
27:30It ain't going away anywhere.
27:32There are imperatives of geography that have been brought home by this conflict.
27:36And it's important to respect that geography of our neighborhood.
27:41Okay. I'm going to leave it there.
27:44I've listened to all these voices. As I said, it's perhaps at the end, hopefully at the end of this
27:50conflict, a time for introspection.
27:52And maybe all sides have reasons to introspect.
27:55The last thing the world needs is more conflicts.
27:58I appreciate my guests joining me from different parts of the world.
28:02We've asked you, the viewers, and this is something we're going to ask every day.
28:05We want to get viewer responses to our big question.
28:07Who gained the upper hand in the U.S.-Iran deal?
28:11Maninder Purewal writes,
28:13If the original objective was to fundamentally weaken Iran, this deal suggests the U.S. blinked first.
28:19Iran endured military pressure, remained politically intact, and returned to negotiations without appearing to surrender.
28:25In geopolitics, survival itself can be victory.
28:28Parag Hede says,
28:29Iran has lost most of its top leadership, but as a nation, it is intact with the same government in
28:34par.
28:35U.S.'s objective of finishing Iran's leadership, taking over the nation like Venezuela, hasn't succeeded.
28:41Iran gets a slight upper hand in the war, but Friday is quite far by Trump's standard.
28:46Who knows what happens between now and then?
28:48Venkatesh writes,
28:50Iran strengthened its position through sheer resilience and survived under extraordinary pressure.
28:55Tehran undoubtedly gained the upper hand.
28:58And remember, we'll carry three best responses that we get every day.
29:02This is your say on the news today.
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