- 11 minutes ago
John Collins and John McKinnon examine why high-control religious movements often grow stronger after prophetic failure instead of collapsing. Using William Branham as a central case study, they explore how failed predictions, group conditioning, and public commitment can keep followers loyal even when the facts no longer support the claims.
The discussion also connects Branham's movement to a wider pattern seen in Adventism, Jehovah's Witnesses, Mormonism, and other prophecy-driven groups. Along the way, John and John trace how cognitive dissonance, fear, social bonds, and reinterpretation of failed predictions can preserve unhealthy systems long after their central claims have been disproven.
00:00 Introduction
01:24 Why Groups Survive Failure
05:10 How Cults Form Around Charismatic Leaders
09:13 Why Failed Prophecy Does Not End Belief
11:21 Historic Examples Of Prophetic Failure
13:27 John Collins On His First Encounter With Contradictions
16:54 Modern Deflection And Prophetic Language
18:14 Family Pressure, Loyalty, And Integrity
20:17 Cognitive Dissonance And Why People Stay
23:15 Studying Beyond Branham
27:02 Festinger And When Prophecy Fails
29:16 How Believers Reinterpret Failure
33:13 Sacrifice, Isolation, And Group Commitment
36:12 How Failed Predictions Get Reframed
42:46 The Los Angeles Prophecy Example
47:40 Five Conditions That Keep Believers In Place
51:43 Family Tradition Vs High-Control Religion
______________________
Weaponized Religion: From Christian Identity to the NAR:
Paperback: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1735160962
Kindle: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DCGGZX3K
______________________
– Support the channel: https://www.patreon.com/branham
– Subscribe to the channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCBSpezVG15TVG-lOYMRXuyQ
– Visit the website: https://william-branham.org
– Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/WilliamBranhamOrg
– Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@william.m.branham
– Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/wmbhr
– Buy the books: https://william-branham.org/site/books
The discussion also connects Branham's movement to a wider pattern seen in Adventism, Jehovah's Witnesses, Mormonism, and other prophecy-driven groups. Along the way, John and John trace how cognitive dissonance, fear, social bonds, and reinterpretation of failed predictions can preserve unhealthy systems long after their central claims have been disproven.
00:00 Introduction
01:24 Why Groups Survive Failure
05:10 How Cults Form Around Charismatic Leaders
09:13 Why Failed Prophecy Does Not End Belief
11:21 Historic Examples Of Prophetic Failure
13:27 John Collins On His First Encounter With Contradictions
16:54 Modern Deflection And Prophetic Language
18:14 Family Pressure, Loyalty, And Integrity
20:17 Cognitive Dissonance And Why People Stay
23:15 Studying Beyond Branham
27:02 Festinger And When Prophecy Fails
29:16 How Believers Reinterpret Failure
33:13 Sacrifice, Isolation, And Group Commitment
36:12 How Failed Predictions Get Reframed
42:46 The Los Angeles Prophecy Example
47:40 Five Conditions That Keep Believers In Place
51:43 Family Tradition Vs High-Control Religion
______________________
Weaponized Religion: From Christian Identity to the NAR:
Paperback: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1735160962
Kindle: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0DCGGZX3K
______________________
– Support the channel: https://www.patreon.com/branham
– Subscribe to the channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCBSpezVG15TVG-lOYMRXuyQ
– Visit the website: https://william-branham.org
– Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/WilliamBranhamOrg
– Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@william.m.branham
– Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/wmbhr
– Buy the books: https://william-branham.org/site/books
Category
📚
LearningTranscript
00:31Hello, and welcome to another episode of the William Branham Historical Research Podcast.
00:36I'm your host, John Collins, the author and founder of William Branham Historical Research
00:40at william-branham.org, and with me I have my co-host, researcher, and friend, John McKinnon,
00:46author of The Persuasive Preacher, The Gifted Prophet, and The Noble Politician.
00:51John, it's good to be back and to talk about all things failure.
00:56I'll admit, this is probably going to be one of the more difficult podcasts that we have done.
01:01At some point, there has to come some self-reflection.
01:05Whenever you believe something that you thought was true, you told other people was true, and
01:13you would have actually died to defend the truth of what you believed, and then you find out
01:20that it wasn't quite true, what do you do with this?
01:24And for many people, this is, really, this is the struggle.
01:27This is why groups survive.
01:30And today we're getting into how a group handles failure, because that's really, that's really
01:38what the deciding factor should be on whether a group is healthy or a group is not healthy.
01:44If a group can handle failure correctly and move forward correctly, it shows that they
01:50have some, you know, at least they have some method in which they can refine and correct
01:59the things that are incorrect and move forward in a good way, move forward in a truthful way.
02:04But whenever a group does not move forward in a healthy way after a failure, it really shows
02:10the internal makeup and integrity of the group.
02:14And for me, this came to be a huge problem as I was starting to unravel the things that
02:21I believed.
02:23Whenever I first began this journey, it was in September, I believe it was, of 2011.
02:29I would have actually died to defend this movement that we came out of.
02:35And it was very difficult for me.
02:38I would never forget the first time I came across any critical information about William
02:43Branham.
02:43It was 2011.
02:44I'd never even, I never even knew there could be anything that was negative to say.
02:50And my first thought was immediately, touch not God's anointed.
02:56And when I had the thought, I remember thinking, you know, I shouldn't, I shouldn't think about
03:01this.
03:02That's God's anointed.
03:04But I also kept going back to the fact that if you read that passage where it says, touch
03:09not God's anointed, do God's prophets no harm.
03:11That was a completely separate thought than you should test the prophets.
03:16You should see if their prophecies are true.
03:18Those are two valid passages in the Bible.
03:22And my mind went to the touch not God's anointed.
03:26Why?
03:26Because that's how I was trained to believe.
03:28That's what I was trained to do.
03:30More to the point, that's how I was trained to respond.
03:34And the next thing that hit me was, well, wait a minute.
03:38This person is critically analyzing the ministry of William Branham.
03:41Why did nobody do this whenever he was alive?
03:44And it's funny, if you read the comment feeds, you'll see people ask that same question.
03:49But the more I thought about it, that was not really coming from me personally.
03:54That's not a thought that I had.
03:55That was a thought that was put up here by somebody else.
03:59Because William Branham himself, in his own ministry, said that 300 ministers rose up against
04:05him for one reason or another.
04:06He mentions this multiple times.
04:09And he talked about groups that were trying to, you know, expose him, etc.
04:15So people were rising up against him.
04:17I just did not know the level in which they were rising up.
04:20But there were people, and he admitted it.
04:22So I knew the truth on one hand, but I had the response on the other hand.
04:28And I think that is really critical to understand, because how a person responds who is in a movement
04:36really depends on how they've been trained to respond in that movement.
04:40And the question comes down to be, it's not a question about the person or the person's
04:45integrity.
04:46The question actually comes to the group.
04:48Does the group have integrity?
04:50And anyway, today we're getting to that.
04:53It's going to be a wild journey, wild ride.
04:55And I'll admit it's going to be painful, because there are things I'm going to admit that I
05:01went through.
05:02And like anybody else who is in one of these groups, they can say the same thing.
05:07And I want to move forward in a healthy way.
05:09So thank you for coming back.
05:11Let's get into this.
05:12Well, John, the more I study all these things we've been talking about, you know, the deeper
05:17it goes.
05:17And the more I really understand now fully, you know, how these things came together to,
05:23you know, deceive us.
05:24And, you know, it just goes to show that things don't always appear like they are on the surface.
05:31A lot of times there's things you really need to look underneath the surface to really find
05:36out the truth of what you're believing.
05:38So I'm glad we're digging into these things, because I'm hoping it's, you know, telling a
05:42story here.
05:43But, you know, everything we've shown so far about how to start a cult, you know, is embedded
05:49in these ministers that rise up to proclaim their own truth, to, you know, branch, break
05:56away from the mainline Christian church, to try to be unique.
06:00And, you know, I understand what their purpose is, is to try to bring truth to the church.
06:06But people that get off into these areas, who may have found a trail they could run on, it
06:14usually leads to nowhere.
06:15And that's what's happened in all these movements, you know, that leads to nowhere, because today
06:20we're going to discuss something that's a really exciting topic.
06:24And for us with more logical, critical thinking minds, you know, we do examine everything that's
06:29happening, you know, in the real world, and what everybody's predicting, to make sure we're
06:34on solid ground.
06:35So we're going to see some of these things as we go along.
06:39Today will be more of a background to get ready for the next episode, where we'll dive
06:45into the actual false prophecies, because that's what we're focusing on today, is false prophecies
06:54But if anything I believe cannot stand challenges, you know, if I believe something cannot stand
06:59the challenges, and be backed up by more than one witness, then there's reason to be
07:03concerned, you know, with what I'm believing.
07:06You know, this is the fifth episode of How to Start Your Own Cult.
07:10So the first four episodes really laid the groundwork, creating the character of the person.
07:16So if you're a person that's out there trying to be somebody and to be the important one for
07:23the hour, then you've got to create your character, you've got to create your stage persona, where
07:28you come from, how you were brought about by God to come be who you are, you know, how he
07:38called you.
07:38And then you gain that following, starts gaining momentum by promoting yourself.
07:44So you first start out, have to promote yourself.
07:46And before long, if people start believing you, then they'll promote you.
07:53So this is the basis of how cults really get started.
07:56It lies in reality that we all want to feel important.
07:59And some people, however, want to feel more important than others.
08:05So when a charismatic, gifted leader, and we know there's people born in this world with
08:11the gift of being able to be, have a lot of charisma and drawing people after themselves,
08:16you know, without any church doctrine.
08:19So we know when they begin to assert their uniqueness, though, within the church, and
08:25that they have higher powers than other people, you know, a cult of personality begins to form
08:31there.
08:32And they all have similar patterns, and that's what we're looking at here is those patterns,
08:36regardless of what doctrines, you know, they're preaching.
08:40That's the basis of what we're exploring.
08:42So the patterns and the framework of all high-control cults, which they all eventually become, but
08:47to keep their followers in check and keep them, you know, dedicated, that's, that's, they
08:52all follow those same patterns that all these groups and the unhealthy ones share.
08:57So what we're tackling today is really fascinating.
08:59It's mind-bending, and false prophecies do get promoted as true, and then eventually over
09:07time, people begin to believe them, and by the time the leader's gone, people are repeating
09:12them as if they were true.
09:14You know, today is going to be a lot of groundwork, so I understand that.
09:18There's a lot of background that we need to cover so that when we go into the actual
09:21prophecies, people can have this episode to understand where we're coming from, because
09:26we have to fully understand how people, you know, even though we can show clearly that
09:31prophecies were not coming to pass, how they can continue to hold their belief system, even
09:37after the failures.
09:38And you would think people would just abandon their whole belief system and start over right
09:43after a failure, since that proves that what they believed was not even true, nor it could
09:50not be from God, and would obviously discredit the prophet.
09:54And that's how a majority of us think.
09:58But it actually does just the opposite.
10:00If your mind is working according to how the majority of people think, you know, these groups
10:06actually tend to hold on even stronger.
10:09You know, to come out of a group like this, there has to be some triggering event or some
10:15event that leads up to where you're really questioning, you know, why you're in this
10:19group in the first place, or believe in what they believe.
10:22So for those still trapped in the groups that we may mention today, we're going to explore
10:28eventually in the next episode at least, several bold predictions about the end times, and about
10:34divine interventions that were possibly during their ministry that happened, or even world-changing
10:40events that they proclaimed that never came to pass.
10:44You know, these include doomsday dates, you know, that fizzled out, to even promise utopias,
10:51when we maybe mentioned John Alexander Dowie, his promised utopia that crumbled.
10:56You know, these failed prophecies should have exposed the cracks and the foundations of what
11:01they were doing in these organizations a long time ago, but we'll discover that these groups
11:08don't die after the leader's proven faults.
11:10They actually begin to tighten up, and the followers start to defend the groups even more.
11:16And there's several reasons for that that we'll go into.
11:19So to illustrate what we're talking about here, you know, think back to the early Adventist
11:24dates.
11:25This is back in the 1800s, mid-1800s.
11:27They set a date of 1844, where Christ was going to come.
11:32And to them and to their followers, that became what was called the Great Disappointment.
11:36You know, when many people left the group at that time, but they still kept a following,
11:43you know, even though many left.
11:46And Jehovah's Witnesses even set a date of 1914, where Armageddon was going to set in.
11:53And then they began to shift to timelines when that didn't come to pass.
11:59Mormon prophecies, they've had prophecies in the past about temples and gatherings, and they
12:04never materialized.
12:06And then we get to where we came out of, William Branham, he forecasted the end of the world
12:10in 1977, which we know that didn't materialize.
12:15You know, as we've done before, and I'll also explore, you know, other prophecies of William
12:20Branham that he used to support his claim of being the last true prophet of God for this
12:25day, because of our familiarity with it.
12:29You know, that's the only reason I'm focusing on it.
12:31And we'll only use the facts and let the facts just speak for themselves.
12:36We have no other purpose in doing it but just to present, you know, the actual facts of the
12:41matter.
12:41And I'll be objective in the analysis and break these things down with actual events and historical
12:47context and fairness.
12:51But I know, John, that even though we can easily show that these leaders spoke false prophecies
12:56in the name of the Lord, because of how people are made up psychologically, you know, the followers
13:03that are really into this, they'll find a way to blur the lines, smooth out the things
13:08that were said, as if it appears the prophecy is not false at all, but it could have been
13:14spoken in some other way for some other purpose.
13:17It allows our minds to avoid these disturbing facts that they're being presented with.
13:23They don't want to be presented with disturbing facts, and we'll find out why, too.
13:27That's exactly right.
13:29I, like I said, whenever I was presented with disturbing facts, I was not able to respond
13:35as myself.
13:36I was responding in the way that I was trained to respond.
13:39And in all other aspects of life, that's not me.
13:43In fact, people who know me, they'll say I'm a little bit open and blunt about the things
13:48that I say.
13:49Whenever I see something that might be off a little bit, I'll say, hey, look, there's
13:54something wrong here.
13:55Dig into this.
13:56Especially, I'm in the IT world, so if there's something that we're planning a project or
14:02whatever, if there's a potential for error in the project or the design of the project,
14:09I'm the first one to open up and say, hey, wait a minute, guys, let's think through this
14:12a little bit more.
14:14But whenever it came to religion, even though I was in the IT world, I didn't do this.
14:19Why didn't I do this?
14:20And it all comes back to the fact that when an unhealthy group is presented with disturbing
14:26facts, very critical facts, the first inclination is to defend the error rather than try to determine
14:36the truth.
14:37And for me, that's backwards.
14:39And for every Christian, that should be backwards.
14:42If you believe something and you're trying to defend something that might be an error, then by default, you two
14:48are in
14:49error.
14:50So whenever I, like I said, I came across this critical information in fall of 2011, and the
14:58very first thing that hit me was, wait a minute, this person is calling William Branham a false
15:02prophet.
15:03And to that point in time, I had never, ever even thought there could be a possibility that
15:10he had a failed prophecy.
15:12He would often say things like, if you see one single thing failed, you can put a sign
15:17on my back that says false prophet.
15:19And that was a, that was a defense mechanism for me.
15:23If somebody ever challenged me, that's what I went to.
15:27He himself said, you can put a sign on his back that said false prophet.
15:31And I would go there rather than examine what the person said that was critical, because
15:37I was trained to respond in a certain way.
15:40But whenever I was presented with disturbing facts that I really couldn't argue with, the
15:46person was going through the one of the prophecies.
15:49I can't remember which, but laying out very clearly the facts, I started to look at the
15:55facts and I could see that the sum of the facts was not in favor of Branham.
15:59I'll just say it like that.
16:00But one little detail among the entire set of details for the specific prophecy, one
16:07little detail might have been true.
16:10And I, I, I cautionly, I say that with caution might have been true.
16:17My mind immediately went to the thing that might have been true and ignored all of the
16:22facts that clearly weren't true.
16:25And whenever this happened, I, like I said, there were things going off in my brain that
16:30I just could not explain.
16:31Why was I responding this way?
16:33That's not how I am.
16:34That's not John Collins, right?
16:36So I was presented with the disturbing facts.
16:39My brain immediately defended the error.
16:41And I was trained to not look at the truth.
16:46So fast forward to today.
16:48I'm going through all of these different ministries, as you know, and there's, there's huge problems
16:53with the church today.
16:54Uh, recently, Sean Foyt, who has, he doesn't claim to be a prophet, but if you read the
17:00title and verbiage of some of his YouTube videos, uh, et cetera, it's, it's always hinting
17:06at prophecy.
17:07Now he's talking about the prophetic for 2025 in one place.
17:11And, you know, all of these different things.
17:13If you were to be in one of his meetings, I'm assuming I've not been in a meeting, but
17:18I'm assuming based on that, he would say things like, I never said I was a prophet.
17:24And I thought through things like that because William Brandon would say the same thing.
17:27I never said I was a prophet.
17:29You said I was a prophet.
17:30And yet at the same time, he's giving prophecy.
17:34So why would you even say this in the first place?
17:36It is a deflection.
17:38That's what I came to learn.
17:39It is a deflection.
17:40But more than that, it gives the person a programmed response for somebody who claims
17:46that William Brandon was a false prophet, because the second thought that went through
17:50my head as I examined the false prophecy was, well, he never said he was a prophet.
17:54Why did I say that?
17:55It was because he was, he was training me to believe this yet the, his entire ministry was
18:01based on this alleged seven prophecies of 1933, um, depending on which version of those
18:07seven, they all differ.
18:08I began to realize that there's something not quite right here.
18:12And at that point in time, and, and in fact, even after I started my website and blog, believe
18:18it or not, I still believe William Brandon was a prophet.
18:21I just thought there were some issues with the prophecies and I wanted to know why.
18:25And so I approached my grandfather.
18:28I, I told him, uh, I was looking at one of the prophecies, which I'll get into that in
18:33a bit.
18:33But I explained that there were some issues with one of the prophecies and Branham himself
18:38admitted that the prophecy did not come true.
18:42And so if he admitted it, and yet at the same time, he's saying, if you find one, that's
18:47not true, put a false sign on his back.
18:49Shouldn't he, he have not put the sign on his back.
18:52So I asked my grandfather and I'll never forget this.
18:55He said, John, people have known these things for years.
18:58Why does it hurt for you to believe it anyway?
19:02And that instantly told me at that point in time that he knew and the way he said it implied
19:09and suggested that other people knew.
19:11And if other people knew, why were they not telling other people?
19:15Why would you not simply say, Hey, we're, we're in error.
19:18There's something wrong here.
19:19Let's move away from error into truth.
19:21And that was when I was first hit with the thought of integrity.
19:26A group who has integrity will move towards truth, not try to remain in error.
19:32So anyway, what was it like for you?
19:34When I, when did you first begin to learn that there were issues with William Branham's
19:39prophecies?
19:39I really didn't start to discover or even believe William Branham had false prophecies.
19:45It was only until I, after I left the message and really began to do in a deep dive.
19:51My, my, my reason for leaving was a totally different reason.
19:57False prophecies was not the reason I left, but I had seen things presented on YouTube about
20:04it.
20:05And I just hadn't come, my mind hadn't come to that place to where I could really understand
20:09it because of the brainwashing.
20:12So, so here's the real mind bender.
20:14We're going to try to dissect here, you know, including myself, you know, why do members
20:19stick around?
20:21Even when prophecies flop spectacularly, why, why don't more people walk away?
20:26Well, there are several concepts going on that we're going to explore.
20:29Or one is being cognitive dissonance, or the community bonds, or a fear of the outside world
20:37because they've been sheltered so much, or even the sunk cost fallacy.
20:43And we don't have time to deep dive into each of these phenomena or the psychology of the
20:48people who are really in these types of situations, but it's a real phenomena here.
20:53It's been thoroughly researched and documented.
20:56And I don't mean to be critical, you know, of anyone's belief, but when a group proclaims
21:02itself to be the necessary channel and the only means of salvation offered to escape the
21:08wrath of God, you know, I certainly believe it's well within our rights and our duty and
21:13responsibility to research this material and to find out, you know, if it's true or not.
21:21And then it's fair game to analyze all their public statements, you know, with what the reality
21:27is, and then present it to others, you know, good or bad, where the chips may fall.
21:33So I think that's what we're doing here is well within the bounds of what we're, you know,
21:38should do.
21:39Exactly.
21:39I mean, like I said, there are passages in the Bible that say to test the prophets.
21:43And yet we were trained in such a way that we could not do this.
21:48And I started to think through the reasons why that would be.
21:52And I really could only think of one reason why, why a person would not want others to
21:57test their prophecies.
21:59So I started studying the scriptures.
22:01I started digging deeper and deeper into the Bible.
22:04I read it over and over and over again, just wash all of what was in my head out.
22:09And I came across the passage in New Testament talking about the believers in Berea.
22:15I had read that before, but I had never really thought through the significance of it.
22:20This is a group of people who were doubters.
22:22This is a group of people who were critically examining the ministry.
22:27They had heard about Christianity.
22:28They wanted to know, is it true?
22:30So they started reading through and they, sadly, it doesn't say what they found or why,
22:35but they came to the conclusion through study and research that this is true.
22:41We want to become Christians.
22:43So I started reading the Bible, doing the same thing.
22:46I actually went beyond Branham whenever I did this, because I realized at that point that
22:52I had never done what they had done.
22:54I believed William Branham because I was told that William Branham was a prophet of God.
23:00And now I'm suddenly coming to terms with the fact that if he was a prophet, he had some
23:06prophecies that had huge flaws.
23:08At that point, I hadn't really understood the failures, but I'm reading through this
23:12and I'm trying to make sense of it.
23:15I came to the point where I realized I can't just stop there.
23:19I have to go beyond Branham and study Christianity.
23:23And I started just digging deeper.
23:25I read the Bible so many times, I lost count, cover to cover.
23:28And the thought hit me that what I was trained to do in response to the failures was a direct
23:37result of the failures themselves.
23:39Whenever there's something that is potentially dangerous to the integrity of the group, the
23:46group must have a defense mechanism to keep people from leaving the group.
23:51And I came in contact with Dr. Stephen Hassan.
23:55I started reading his book, Combating Cult Mind Control.
23:58And it started talking about the way the groupthink works, how basically all of the defense
24:04mechanisms to support the group.
24:06And it was saying in much different words what I was coming to terms with.
24:11It all goes back to the integrity of the group.
24:13If the group has integrity, they will self-reflect.
24:17They'll examine what's true, what's false, and they'll eradicate the error and they'll move
24:21towards truth.
24:22I realized that I personally was not doing this.
24:26And I was remaining in error even after leaving, believe it or not, after leaving and even after
24:32starting my blog, going through this stuff, I was trying at that point to prove William
24:36Branham to be true.
24:38And the way that I prove analytically, the way that my mind works to prove the truth, I will
24:45study the faults.
24:45And if the faults turns out to be true, then my truth is not the version of true that is
24:51actually true.
24:52So I'm studying all of this out and coming to terms with the fact that I was in a groupthink
24:59mindset.
25:00And that got me into studying mind control, which at that point I thought was science fiction.
25:05But it led me down the path of learning that the people themselves aren't really at fault.
25:11It's the group and the group's integrity that's at fault.
25:14Usually the result of the central figure of the group.
25:17And that's something I'd not really thought through.
25:20Our group had a central figure and that was William Branham until he died.
25:24He was the central figure.
25:25Then after he died, he became a central figure immortalized, which is really the more I thought
25:33about it, the more it was really odd.
25:34And I had looked at other groups like the Jehovah's Witnesses, the Mormons, and I can even
25:40in the cult, I considered them to be a cultish or destructive group.
25:45I started to look at the way that they supported their dead leader.
25:50And I was asking myself the question, did I not do the same thing?
25:53So I went through this process of self-reflection and came to learn that, yes, I was probably subjected
25:59to a bit of mind control, but I did not yet know, was it a purposefully implemented strategy
26:08that they were doing to my head or was it just something that happened over time?
26:12And that's a question that I'm still digging into.
26:15You know, you're right on point with that one, John.
26:17You know, the techniques of mind control are being practiced today within these groups.
26:22And there are a lot of reasons why these groups stay so cohesive in the midst of severe challenges
26:27to their beliefs.
26:29And, you know, I think the message is receiving its most severe challenge as ever.
26:33And it's a good study group to actually start looking at and seeing what's happening.
26:38And it's going to follow the same patterns that we, that was seen back in 1956 when this
26:44other study was going on with a completely different group and completely bizarre, you know,
26:49pseudo beliefs.
26:50And it, it goes for people that are pseudo Christians as well as non-Christian groups
26:55as well.
26:56So it doesn't matter what type of group you're in.
26:59These, these same concepts apply.
27:02Yeah.
27:03So to get the background of this, we're going to review some details of the book that was
27:06written in 1956 to study, you know, a similar doomsday cult, but it was a cult believing
27:13in aliens.
27:14And so the book was called When Prophecy Fails.
27:17It's a classic sociological study by Leon Festinger, Henry Reichen, and Stanley Schachter.
27:27It examines what happens after a clear prophetic prediction fails.
27:31And it, crucially, you know, why believers often don't abandon that belief, you know, and
27:37that's what you can actually take what we're having today and apply it to any group, you
27:41know, that holds on to false prophecies.
27:43So When Prophecy Fails presents one of the earliest field studies of cognitive dissonance.
27:50And that's what they termed it.
27:52It examines how a group reacts when apocalyptic prophecy does not occur or does not come to
27:58pass as they predict it.
28:00And the work became a foundational work in social psychology and the study of belief persistence.
28:06And that's what we're dealing with here.
28:08You know, people that have deep-seated beliefs will hold on to those beliefs for various reasons.
28:13And we're going to explore and explain these reasons here shortly.
28:17Have you ever wondered how the Pentecostal movement started, or how the progression of modern
28:23Pentecostalism transitioned through the latter reign, charismatic, and other fringe movements
28:28into the new apostolic reformation?
28:31You can learn this and more on William Branham Historical Research's website, william-branham.org.
28:38On the books page of the website, you can find the compiled research of John Collins, Charles
28:44Paisley, Stephen Montgomery, John McKinnon, and others, with links to the paper, audio,
28:50and digital versions of each book.
28:52You can also find resources and documentation on various people and topics related to those
28:58movements.
28:59If you want to contribute to the cause, you can support the podcast by clicking the Contribute
29:04button at the top.
29:05And as always, be sure to like and subscribe to the audio or video version that you're listening
29:11to or watching.
29:12On behalf of William Branham Historical Research, we want to thank you for your support.
29:17So the book argues that failed prophecy does not automatically destroy beliefs.
29:23Instead, under certain conditions, failure can actually strengthen the commitment of the
29:28believers.
29:29And the authors explain this whole concept by using the term, they term cognitive dissonance.
29:36It's a psychological tension.
29:38That's how it's defined.
29:40Your mind gets under tension psychologically.
29:43What you experience when your reality of what you're observing in the real world contradicts
29:49with what you're deeply holding as your belief system.
29:51Now, your belief system is intangible, but I believe what we're seeing in the external
29:57world is tangible.
29:59So you've got one thing that's reality versus intangible versus the tangible coming together
30:07and they're conflicting.
30:08And there's a rub there.
30:10So the person actually has to change who they are almost to match reality.
30:17So in a sense, if they don't change who they are to match reality, they're holding on to
30:22these beliefs that are clearly proven to show that they're not true, then they're under
30:27some kind of, it may be mild, it may be, could be even severe, but they're holding on to some
30:33sort of psychosis because at that point, they are no longer experiencing reality.
30:38Now they're in a fantasy world.
30:40So cognitive distance is the psychological discomfort that a person experiences when they
30:47hold two or more conflicting beliefs or when their beliefs conflict with observable reality or their
30:54own actions.
30:56And because this discomfort becomes unpleasant to them, people are strongly motivated to
31:02resolve this conflict or reduce it.
31:06And often they do that without changing their original belief.
31:10That's the core thing is they, they, they will not go first to their changing their
31:15belief system.
31:17You have to have a willing heart to do that.
31:19You have to have an open heart to do that when you're closed off and the group has taught
31:24you so much to close you off to the outside world.
31:28That's the mind control.
31:30And that's what's motivating the people in the message and any other group that forces you
31:37to say, believe this or else, uh, it forces them into that belief system.
31:41That's why they never go to changing their beliefs as a starting point.
31:46It's always, we've got to find some way to disprove what we're confronted with.
31:52So the case study in this book centers on a small apocalyptic group.
31:57It was led by a woman who predicted a specific date for the destruction of the world, claiming
32:04her messages were from aliens or extraterrestrial beings.
32:08The book chronicles, uh, a study by somebody that infiltrated the group and became one of
32:14the believers, uh, in a, in a way to study the group.
32:19And the, the pseudonym for the woman or the pseudonym for the person going in was Marion
32:24Keech.
32:25It's just the name made up, uh, so his name would be protected.
32:29But the group actually believed that aliens would rescue them from a flood that was going
32:34to destroy the world on a specific date.
32:38The authors, uh, that wrote the book and the collaborators with them joined, joined the
32:44group covertly to just observe what was happening as a study when this prophecy failed.
32:51So it being a very soon to come to pass prophecy, they had a very opportune time to get in
32:58there
32:58and study and provide some research for the furtherment of, uh, sociology and how people,
33:05uh, act in this world.
33:06But so, so the key features that had to be present was a specific time bound prophecy.
33:13Not something way off thousands of years in the future.
33:17Members also made specific major sacrifices to be part of this group and to be part of
33:23this prophecy.
33:24For instance, they quit their jobs.
33:26They sold all their possessions.
33:28They gave all their money to the group.
33:30They cut off their outside relationships.
33:33And we find that's the pattern in, in these high control groups that a lot of these things,
33:38one or more of these things can happen.
33:39Because you are convinced so strongly, back when William Branham's prophecy in 1977 was
33:47given, uh, which he said was not a prophecy, but his, his prediction of that even caused people
33:53to quit their jobs, caused people to sell all they had, maybe caused people to get married
33:58just so they could experience marriage before the 1977 prophecy came to pass, which they believe
34:04was a prophecy, um, so those things happen within the message.
34:09So it's, it's not uncommon.
34:11It's very common.
34:12Uh, we found it happening probably in the, uh, Adventist group, uh, of David Koresh.
34:19All the people there joined his compound.
34:21We found it happened maybe in, in, uh, Jim Jones's compound.
34:25All the people quit their jobs and all and went with his group and they moved out to Guyana.
34:30So it happens over and over, whether you still continue to live in the society or join a
34:36commune, these elements are present in, in what you believe.
34:40Uh, and they also enjoy a shared community.
34:44And the shared community amongst themselves only reinforces their belief system because
34:50they're bouncing things off one another, never getting a critical view of, of their belief
34:56system.
34:56Um, it's always reinforcing, it's always confirmation bias.
35:00It's never somebody from the outside because they're not let in.
35:05So when this prophecy fell back in 1956, you know, the world didn't end and the group, however,
35:11did not break up.
35:13They didn't dissolve.
35:15Some may have left, but the group stayed intact for at least for a time.
35:19So let's explore, you know, what happened here after that prophecy failed.
35:23You know, the authors interpreted the group's intensified efforts to proselytize even more
35:29after this failure as evidence of cognitive dissonance, the, the discomfort they were experiencing.
35:36They went out and actually evangelized even more, probably telling other people that, oh,
35:42the world was spared from this flood, from the destruction, just so that we can invite you
35:47to come in to this group.
35:50They felt like because they were still here that God spared the world and, and they were
35:56to go out and bring more believers in.
35:58So when they were faced with this disconfirmation of their beliefs, they resolved it by not abandoning
36:04the faith that they had, but they reinforced it by a lot of new rationalizations and then
36:12outreach.
36:13So here's what they did.
36:15They, they reinterpreted the failure and that's what happened in many cases.
36:19If say, if the world would have ended in 1977, well, believers would have been first to say
36:24William Brennan's prophecy was true and they would have called it a prophecy, but because
36:28it didn't come to pass, oh, it was only a prediction and it was not, didn't have to
36:32be fulfilled the same way.
36:35When we're expecting a woman president at some point to fulfill a 1933 prophecy, the
36:41minute we have a woman vice president or someone running for president, we automatically go to
36:47the, uh, the prophecy and say, that's the fulfillment of it.
36:50And we find ways to, uh, look at what's happening and, and weave that into the prophecy.
36:56And if, if they were elected, we would say it's the fulfillment.
37:00And then if things didn't pan out the way the prophecy was laid out, we would say, well,
37:05it was only one of many.
37:06There's more to come.
37:09So we reinterpret the failure every time.
37:13The, the people that back then in that day was saying the world was spared because of
37:17our faith.
37:19You know, I can think back to Perry Green's book, uh, the acts of the prophet and his earlier
37:25versions, you know, he, he was dead on mentioning about, uh, Billy Paul Branham's testimony about
37:33William Branham saying, you're, you're not, you're not going to die or you're not going
37:37to be even an old man before there's going to be sharks swimming all around where you're
37:42standing.
37:43And that was in front of the May company in downtown Los Angeles, because he prophesied
37:48and we've got this on record and that's one of the ones we'll go over next time, but it's
37:52on record that it's a thus saith the Lord.
37:56And when we look at that in a critical view, it's really, uh, strange how they can still
38:03hold on to that.
38:04But so the original version declared in that book of Perry Green's, it declared it was a
38:10prophecy concerning his son's age.
38:13And he mentioned it was a prophetic statement, but newer versions that came out because he was
38:19forced to revise the versions about the cloud and about all he said about the cloud back in
38:241963 in Arizona.
38:26He was forced to revise that as the truth came out.
38:30So he also revised this as well and just called it a prediction or a, just a personal prediction,
38:36not even a prophecy.
38:39So they also claimed, uh, if, if a prophecy fails, they will claim as a partial or invisible
38:45fulfillment.
38:47So we can say, well, when a woman was elected as vice president, it was a partial fulfillment
38:53for more to come.
38:55Uh, or you could think back when seven angels were supposedly to come to William Branham in
39:00the cloud.
39:01And it was determined that the cloud had nothing to do with seven angels and had nothing to
39:06do with William Branham because he was in Texas at the time.
39:10Then the believers will start saying, well, the, the angels came to him by vision, uh, and
39:16it was days later after the mysterious cloud appear or the angels came to him and nobody
39:22noticed it because the cloud appeared ahead of time to show they were here.
39:26And then they came to him privately afterwards.
39:29So the prophecy keeps getting reinterpreted.
39:33But for some ministers who were more honest, you know, once the cloud was found to be a
39:39rocket explosion that was detonated by the military because of a failed launch.
39:46And it was actually 200 miles away from Tucson to where William Branham, even if he was there,
39:52would not have even been able to look up and see the cloud because it was 200 miles away.
39:58They actually stopped mentioning the cloud altogether in their sermons.
40:02And I commend them for that because I would have done the same thing too.
40:07Uh, I wouldn't have started mentioning the fact that he was underneath the cloud as he spoke
40:12in his sermons.
40:13I wouldn't have mentioned that I just would avoid it.
40:15And that's the way we, uh, resolve this cognitive dissonance in our minds.
40:19We don't discredit William Branham for the cloud hoax, but we just find a way to explain
40:26it and say, well, I'm just not going to mention it anymore.
40:29That, that resolves it for me.
40:31If I just avoid the controversy or I can say, well, it was by vision.
40:36Well, that's an explanation.
40:38So as long as we can find an explanation for it and believe me, no matter what evidence you
40:43could present to these believers, there's always an explanation.
40:48There's always a way around it.
40:49So we'll never get anywhere by that.
40:52Perhaps it just takes, uh, time.
40:55It's going to take many years before maybe they all see it.
40:58So what happens also when prophecy fails is they actually increase their proselytizing.
41:05So the excitement of the belief system drives evangelism.
41:10Uh, new converts that come in, they particularly can get real excited about any of these groups.
41:16And so that freshness that comes in, that drives the proselytizing.
41:22They may go out there and proselytize on their own because of the belief that they've latched
41:27onto.
41:27It's that train of thought that they get into.
41:31It's not necessarily Christian, but it's the train of thought for the group.
41:36In William Branham's case, it's the message of the hour and that you've got some special
41:40mysteries and that you're doing things, some denominations aren't practicing and that makes
41:46you special and you've got to get everybody in because everybody's got to hear the prophet.
41:51So as a new convert, you're going out there telling everybody about it because you're committed
41:57to it.
41:58So you also become more publicly committed to the belief system.
42:02And when things fail, because you have to save face in the public's eye, because otherwise
42:08the public's going to discredit you altogether.
42:10So you have to become publicly committed to this in the face of opposition.
42:16And a lot of times you'll reframe it, public opposition to yourselves as persecution.
42:22So the failure gets totally renamed as confirmation when you can add all these elements together.
42:29Then people say, well, it was just confirmation of the prophecy.
42:33It's not a refutation in their minds.
42:36That's just it.
42:37The mind is not allowing for critical thinking about the prophecy when you're in one of these
42:41groups.
42:42You mentioned the Los Angeles prophecy.
42:45I want to talk about that just a bit because that's a good example for what I was referring
42:49to earlier with regards to integrity.
42:52So for people who don't know, people who are unaware, William Branham claimed in 1965 that
42:58he had a vision from God.
43:01Los Angeles was going to sink before beneath the ocean and then started giving details about
43:06that prophecy in various sermons.
43:08And the details themselves aren't quite correct.
43:12He said that Los Angeles would sink and he had received this vision from God.
43:18Sometimes he says it was Jesus speaking and he says something to the effect that as Capernaum
43:24sits beneath the sea, so also shall Los Angeles sink beneath the sea.
43:29I'll never forget whenever I was watching National Geographic one day and saw Capernaum and I'm
43:35thinking, wait a minute, it's supposed to be beneath the sea.
43:38I had no idea that it wasn't beneath the sea because the only thing that I had as a frame
43:43of reference to Capernaum was what William Branham said.
43:46And I got to studying everything that he said about it and I started noticing, man,
43:51there's just some real huge flaws here.
43:53The biggest of which, like you mentioned, he said, according to what Billy Paul said,
44:00and I knew Billy Paul personally, he said that before you are an old man, sharks will be
44:05swimming right where you're standing.
44:06In fact, if you read the Acts of the Prophets book, it says exactly this.
44:11It says, return now to the day when Brother Branham turned to Brother Billy Paul and said,
44:15Billy, all I can say is that God has told me no different about Sister Florence.
44:21And then he says, right after making this statement, he turned to his son and said,
44:24Billy, where are you standing?
44:26And Billy Paul replied, downtown Los Angeles.
44:30And William Branham said, where are you standing?
44:32And Billy Paul said, in front of the May Company, downtown Los Angeles.
44:37And at that point, it says, at this, Brother Branham made a prophetic statement.
44:43Billy, I may not be here, but you won't be an old man until sharks will swim right where
44:49we are standing.
44:51Now, I've been to Los Angeles and I have stood outside of the May Company and now it has changed.
44:56It's no longer even the May Company.
44:58It's something else.
45:00It's I've stood right there where this allegedly took place, if this even took place.
45:05The problem is it didn't take place.
45:08Billy Paul was an old man.
45:10At the point of time I was there, he was still alive, but he later died.
45:15So he became not only an old man.
45:17He aged until death.
45:20And the way that the cult has spawned the death is that he died of old age, which is
45:25really, really ironic.
45:26If you think about it, that doesn't quite match with the certificate of death that I
45:32have.
45:33There were some complications that caused the death of which he was supposed to be healed,
45:37which leads me to the circular reasoning of understanding.
45:42After his death, this, as you know, created a huge problem in the cult following William Branham.
45:48There were ministers who actually said something to the effect, well, it was true.
45:52It did come to pass because they had a shark tank inside the building.
45:57But if you think about the prophecy itself, it said, where are you standing?
46:01And he says, in front of the May Company, downtown Los Angeles.
46:06So the ministers who are fully aware of what he said, what was said in this prophecy would
46:11try to argue that there was a shark tank inside, meaning that the prophecy was incorrect.
46:18He wasn't in front of it.
46:20He would have had to have been standing inside for the shark tank to be there.
46:23Now, to the average person who's never heard this prophecy, they're thinking, what on earth?
46:27Why are they even trying to defend this?
46:29The guy was old and died.
46:31But it's all about that integrity.
46:33The brain, even a person who has integrity or thinks they have, when they try to respond
46:40to a failed prophecy, and they're under that level of mind control, their brain will automatically
46:46defend it, whether their being would have defended it.
46:50In other words, when you're under that level of mind control, you have a critically thinking
46:58self-identity that's inside of you.
47:00But you have the group's identity, which is suppressing this.
47:04And the group's identity is telling you, don't test the prophets, touch not God's anointed,
47:10all of those phrases, all of that loaded language that's in your head.
47:13But you cannot test it.
47:15You cannot critically think of it.
47:17And so what happens instead, you'll give circular reasoning defenses.
47:22This can be true because of this other thing and ignore, you know, every detail that's
47:27incorrect in the prophecy, ignore that Capernaum is still standing and has never, ever been
47:31under the sea.
47:32We saw a shark tank.
47:34So that's what I'm referring to when I talk about integrity.
47:38So why do believers stay when these things happen?
47:42There's five key conditions that I'm going to mention here that makes us believe persistence
47:47more likely after a failure.
47:50First of all, it's very strong convictions.
47:54You know, the fact that these are Christians we're talking about in the message, for instance,
47:59and even other pseudo-Christian groups, they obviously believe in Jesus.
48:06They don't know maybe what Jesus they're believing in.
48:09As we pointed out last time, these groups don't know what Jesus they're actually believing in.
48:14Many are believing in a false Jesus, say one that was created by God or one that was
48:19that was birthed out of God that was not eternal in the heavens.
48:23So, but they do have this strong conviction because we know Jesus was real, Christians do.
48:29So they have a personal identity with it and it attaches to their belief system within the
48:35message or the cult that they're part of.
48:38And then they've also got a public commitment now because if they sold their goods, if they
48:43left their jobs, if they're not associating with the people of the world, if they're condemning
48:51denominations, they've got to have a reason for it.
48:53So publicly, they may have to explain themselves, why do you do this?
48:59So if they left the group after a failure, they would face embarrassment a lot of times.
49:04So their public commitment makes themselves very tied in with the group.
49:08There's also the sacrifices that I mentioned, you know, selling their possessions.
49:12That becomes an irreversible action.
49:15When you've sold everything you have and put all your eggs in this basket, it's very costly
49:22then to leave what you've given all for.
49:26Very costly psychologically.
49:27It would almost break you down psychologically.
49:30And we know many that's come out of the message that had once given all that they had to the
49:36message.
49:37They've had a lot of psychological challenges.
49:41And so it's very costly.
49:43And that's no doubt.
49:45Also, another thing that keeps them bound to the group is social support.
49:49You know, you've got all your, a lot of times, all your family, a lot of these churches within
49:53the message, perhaps, and I know this for a fact, are families.
49:58The whole church is built upon families.
50:00It starts out maybe with the dad who has lots of children.
50:04And then they get married and have lots of grandchildren.
50:07And then they get married and have lots of grandchildren.
50:09So the ones that hang on in there are mostly family.
50:13And then you've got other churches that are not so much like that, but they've attracted
50:18a lot of the people that are dissatisfied in their own churches.
50:22And then you get the social support system that goes on.
50:26Now they support one another.
50:28And that's very strong, too, in any group, non-Christian or Christian alike.
50:31Even, say, in your job, which is totally secular, you have a support structure there that you,
50:39if you like the people you work with, it's very strong.
50:42And it keeps you employed there.
50:44It's why you don't leave the job a lot of times.
50:48And then also, when failures happen, they throw a lot of ambiguity in there.
50:53That's where you try to reinterpret the prophecy, or you say, well, you just didn't see it the
50:58way it should have been seen, or all these things they can bring in.
51:01It brings in a lot of ambiguity.
51:03So then, even though it's clearly disproven, the believers are held on because there's
51:09been so much ambiguity brought in from the pulpit about it, and it fogs the issue.
51:16So people can never overcome, you know, and if they're not prone to go outside and study
51:23on their own, you know, they're going to hold on to the belief system.
51:26So when all five of these are present, that just intensifies the belief system greatly.
51:33It never collapses at that point.
51:35One or more of these can be present to hold you there, but when all five are present, then
51:40the intensity there is great.
51:43Exactly.
51:43And one of the things that I'll mention here is that every group, no matter which church
51:48you're in, may have, to some level, some of the things you've talked about.
51:52You talked about the family.
51:54So why am I, this particular denomination, one person might say, because my father was, and
52:01his father before him and his father before him, and this, this person will likely be in
52:07that denomination for the rest of their lives because they have this family history.
52:10Does it mean the denomination is true?
52:12Does it mean it's false?
52:13Neither.
52:14This person is here simply because of the family.
52:17And that's not necessarily a bad thing I want to point out, but when you combine everything
52:23that you just said and the people are trained not to critically think, that's where the problem
52:29comes in.
52:30Because whenever there is an issue, whenever you do discover something, then you have been
52:35trained not to examine the truth and throw away the faults.
52:41It's back to the person whose father was in the group, you know, his father before him
52:46and et cetera.
52:47If that person were to come in contact with something that's incredibly destructive, some
52:53critical information that, oh my gosh, I'm, I'm in error.
52:57Usually in a group that doesn't have all of the things that you're talking about, usually
53:01the people will think through the error.
53:02Now they may remain in the group.
53:04They may not.
53:05I don't, that's a different story, but they at least think through it and they, they have
53:10no hesitation to think through it.
53:11But when you're in one of these groups that does not allow you to think about the things
53:15that have been spoken from behind the pulpit as God's truth, whenever God's truth isn't
53:23true, what do you do with this?
53:25And for me, like I said, it goes back to the integrity.
53:28Next time we're going to really get into more of the background.
53:31I apologize that we can't get into the false prophecies yet, but this background is essential
53:36and there's some great comments that's going to be made, you know, in the next episode
53:40when we get into more of this background and why people stay and hold on to the belief systems
53:46that they either grew up with or came into and then sacrificed everything they had to
53:51be a part of.
53:52And we're going to learn exactly the psychological makeup of the people and why, why they stick
53:58with it.
53:59And it's, it's just present in all of us really.
54:02So, so I look forward to it and talking to you the next time and, and we'll get right
54:08into it the next episode.
54:09Sounds good.
54:10Well, if you've enjoyed our show and you want more information, you can check us out on the
54:13web.
54:14You can find us at william-branham.org.
54:16For more information about Roy Davis and William Branham, you can read The Persuasive Preacher,
54:21The Gifted Prophet, and The Noble Politician.
54:23And for more about the dark side of the new apostolic reformation, you can read Weaponized Religion
54:28from Christian Identity to the NAR, available on Amazon, Kindle, and Audible.
54:37Weaponized Religion from Christian Identity to the NAR-F-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S
54:38-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S-S.
Comments