00:00All right, we're going to take a look at Christmas week and the possibility of a sneaky snow
00:12for parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Christmas Day.
00:17It's going to be interesting to watch this setup as we go forward here.
00:20Now, number one story, as we've been talking about, is the Arctic air that's been placed
00:25has been replaced by a milder air mass across the country.
00:29You take a look at temperatures here this evening.
00:31Here's all the cold air once again across Canada.
00:34Now, there's a little front in here coming into the Northeast today.
00:39Later today and tomorrow will be a little chillier.
00:41But again, most of the cold air are across the North.
00:44There's going to be a stronger front arriving.
00:46This is the system that's coming into the Northwest today.
00:49This brings another shot of colder air into the Midwest.
00:52You can see it here.
00:53It is Thursday night coming into Minneapolis.
00:55Then we get into Friday morning, Chicago, Cleveland, eventually into Pittsburgh Friday afternoon,
01:02and then into the Northeast as we move into the weekend.
01:04Now, when you're looking for snow, you're looking for cold, right?
01:08Cold enough to snow here across the Northeast.
01:10But the pattern with these cold fronts are just not conducive to much snow.
01:16Let me explain.
01:17What happens is, and this is the cold front that's coming through Wednesday.
01:21See this big dip in the jet stream?
01:23This European model, here it comes Thursday across the Midwest, Friday.
01:27Then it lifts out.
01:28And then you have another system on its heels by Friday.
01:32Let me show you that.
01:33Sorry about that.
01:33So here it comes.
01:34Comes in the Midwest Thursday, Friday across the Northeast.
01:38You see the big dip in the jet stream.
01:39But see, already by Saturday, you have another system on its heels.
01:43And it's pretty far north.
01:45These northern tracks of these short waves means the Gulf is closed for business.
01:51So these systems don't have a lot of precipitation with it.
01:54The dips in the jet stream are just not far enough south to get any Gulf moisture.
02:00So they're moisture starved.
02:01This is another front that will be coming on through.
02:04Here we go as we head toward the weekend.
02:05Here it comes.
02:06Swings through on Sunday.
02:08Then guess what behind that?
02:09Another system arrives Monday into Tuesday.
02:13That swings through, right?
02:16And then we get on Christmas Eve.
02:18And that's where things get a little interesting.
02:22But again, as we head toward the weekend, there will be another front coming through as we get in the Sunday.
02:27Let me show it to you right here.
02:29Here comes the front.
02:30High pressure builds in for Monday.
02:33And if you're flying out Monday morning in any of the United States, for the most part, it should be good.
02:40The West Coast is going to be a little problematic as we're looking for rain and mountain snow.
02:44Now, as we get in the Tuesday, watch what happens here.
02:48This European model, the high pressure leaves.
02:51There's going to be a little impulse coming here Monday night into Tuesday.
02:55It's right here.
02:56See this in here?
02:57You've got this northern little piece of energy coming in here, right here.
03:02There's the European model.
03:03This is Tuesday morning.
03:04There's the GFS.
03:05They both have it.
03:06Now, what that's going to do is that's going to produce a little spotty precipitation across New York State and Pennsylvania on Tuesday.
03:13That's the 23rd.
03:15Let me show it to you right here.
03:16All right.
03:17Now, with that, there could be a little bit of ice with this across New York State and Pennsylvania, Tuesday afternoon European, Tuesday afternoon GFS model.
03:28So, both of them showing this little impulse coming across that could produce some spotty snow and ice.
03:34New York State, Pennsylvania, a little bit of snow in northern New England.
03:37I don't think it's a lot, but if you're doing any traveling, New York State, Pennsylvania, New England on Tuesday, there may be minor delays.
03:45Any frozen precipitation will stay north and west of the I-95 corridor.
03:50Now, it gets a little intriguing, though, on Christmas Eve.
03:52Watch what happens.
03:54You get an area of high pressure coming on in.
03:56European, GFS, same thing.
03:58So, what you're building is you're building some cold air here from the mid-Atlantic into the northeast.
04:04Now, all modeling, the last 10 days, has been showing that there's some kind of cold little system coming in from the west-southwest.
04:15Let me show you the temperature map on Tuesday.
04:19You can see what I mean.
04:20Right in here, there's this little, little cold air right there.
04:24You see that?
04:25This is Christmas Eve.
04:27You get this little dome of cold air.
04:30It's not super cold, but it's cold enough to snow.
04:32So, the question is then, okay, instead of your next upper-level system being too far north, that all the precipitation would be off to the north, could you get a system a little farther south?
04:45I talked about this yesterday, coming in across the southwest and in the southern plains.
04:49And if you do, you can attack this cold air in place and get some snow and ice on Christmas Day.
04:56Now, not that I want that, but I've been very, been wondering about that, that on Christmas Eve and mostly Christmas Day, where's the next shortwave coming?
05:06Is it coming up here across the U.S.-Canadian border or is it coming off to the south?
05:12Well, I want to show you the modeling on Christmas Day.
05:16Very interesting.
05:17This is European.
05:18It doesn't really have much.
05:19Look at the GFS right here on Christmas Day.
05:24You see this?
05:25European GFS.
05:26European doesn't have anything.
05:28A very weak system that would get buried to the south.
05:31The American model is interesting, though.
05:34It shows this.
05:35Little piece of energy coming in out of the west-southwest.
05:37Watch where it moves.
05:38See, this is what I've been looking for, wondering right in there.
05:43All right?
05:43You see that?
05:44It's coming right across the Ohio Valley and into the northeast with the cold air mass in place.
05:50So, if that's right, then we're going to have a problem.
05:53European says it's a weak system.
05:56Christmas Eve, you see it?
05:57Here it comes.
05:58Right in here.
05:59You see a little area of ice and snow.
06:02Wouldn't be a big deal Christmas Day because it's a weak system in the upper levels.
06:07The GFS, though, a little different.
06:09See, this is where there would be some sneaky snow.
06:12Right in here.
06:12You see that?
06:13Christmas morning.
06:14There it is.
06:15With some snow and ice across parts of Pennsylvania.
06:18That says it tries to get in the word New York City that there'd be some snow on Christmas Day.
06:24Right in there.
06:25You see that?
06:25That's the American model.
06:27The European model says, nah, not much.
06:30It's a very weak system.
06:32Maybe a little bit of ice across New York State and Pennsylvania, but no snow.
06:36The GFS says, well, this could be a tricky, tricky setup.
06:40So, again, let's keep an eye on Christmas Day, upper levels.
06:44Do we have a weak piece of cyst like the European coming across the United States?
06:49Or is it like the GFS?
06:52A little stronger system, in which case you get a sneaky snow and ice.
06:57That's what we're going to be following on the feed.
06:59Right in here.
07:00Okay.
07:00There it is.
07:01Okay.
07:02There it is.
07:03There it is.
07:03Let's take a look at the heat.
07:04All right.
07:04There it is.
07:05There it is.
07:05That's right.
07:05There it is.
07:06There it is.
07:06There it is.
07:07There it is.
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