Christmas week outlook

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, Bernie Rayno takes a look at the weather for the week of Christmas.

Transcript

00:00we're wrapping up the Arctic cold and we're looking ahead to thanks Thanksgiving how about

00:11Christmas week that's the feed this morning I'll tell you what remember we talked about on Friday

00:16that that short wave that was rounding the bend was really going to strengthen and I was pretty

00:21much convinced there was going to be a stripe of three to six inches of snow across parts of

00:25southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey I was right about that like I say wrong right right church wrong

00:33pew right I was close but the snow ended up even a little heavier and a little farther north up in

00:39the eastern it was right in here you can see there was another stripe in here but even Philadelphia

00:44I think had over three inches of snow there's a heavy stripe of snow here Lehigh Valley up in the

00:50eastern parts of Pennsylvania and I'll tell you what when you look across the country right now

00:55uh there's pretty good snow depth here let me put it on full so you can see me there it is about 30

01:02percent of the country covered by snow uh right now but a lot of the north I mean this is a pretty big

01:09area of snow this early in this season across the north central United States you're going to start

01:14whittling this snow away uh across Kentucky and certainly Virginia but a healthy snowpack right now

01:21here's where we're lacking this is a huge problem we need the snow in California because I'll tell you

01:27what when it comes to the water situation in California yes you need rain but it's the Sierra snow

01:34that dictates whether the reservoirs are filled or not all right so we're running way behind even in the

01:41Cascades although I think the Cascades are going to get thumped by snow here over the next couple of days

01:47but as I mentioned I also want to look ahead to Christmas week and as we've talked about last week

01:52right um much different weather pattern coming here across the country let me show you where we are now

01:58with the upper level picture so here's the core of the cold this is the upper low that we are tracking

02:03it was across the Yukon and northwest territories it's right across the northeast today the coldest day

02:09of the year of the season I should say not year of the season as this is January cold with gusty winds

02:16but watch what happens as we move forward here that upper low leaves by Tuesday morning you already

02:22see the changes what's going on here you have what I call a zonal flow from west to east all your cold

02:29air is locked up in here now if you live in this area in here across New England New York State up in

02:37here you're going to continue to get shots of some very cold air moving forward but if you're in here

02:45across the southeast especially let's be careful not too far south let's say in here you're going

02:52to be balmy moving forward here all right as all the cold's going to stay locked in but you can see

02:57the weather pattern moving forward there will be these little shots of cold air coming in here's a

03:02cold front arriving on Wednesday here's one arriving Thursday into Friday and then there's another one

03:08arriving as we get in the Sunday Monday but one common theme you see is that you're not getting

03:14the flow across a large chunk chunk of the country coming in out of the north northwest it's basically

03:20from west to east that's why everybody's going to be mild let me show you the temperatures I love

03:24this map because you can really see it here here's the cold today in the northeast watch how it starts

03:30relaxing here's a cold front coming see that right in here this is Wednesday into the lakes into the

03:36northeast on Thursday here comes that next cold front Thursday into Friday that has some pretty

03:42cold air with it that moves into the midwest Thursday Friday into the northeast and then we're

03:48tracking the cold front as we get into Christmas week now for many Christmas week the weather's going

03:55to be relatively tranquil for most not all though all right let me show you the weather pattern as we

04:00head into Christmas week here we go and uh here we go this is models showing a cold front coming

04:08through as we get in the Monday now here's the difference in the modeling here I want to show you

04:13this look at on Tuesday this is 23rd European GFS European GFS you see the difference the GFS has a

04:21much stronger shot of cold air a much different uh dip bigger dip in the jet stream Tuesday than the

04:28European notice the European GFS European GFS notice the difference I'll show you the surface panel

04:35then on Christmas Eve European GFS both of them show that a cold front is coming through

04:42Tuesday in the Wednesday some point Tuesday there's a shot of cold air coming in and then as we get into

04:51Christmas Day you've got this energy here this is the European this is the GFS it's a little slower with

05:00but that too has energy coming in from the west southwest with cold air in place across the northeast

05:07that's the one area to watch for some snow and ice from the northeast into New England near the lakes and then it does

05:16look as though with these dips in the jet stream it's going to be stormy in the western United States

05:21let me show you the surface map and it becomes a little clearer so let's jump ahead to Monday so

05:26here's a cold front here it is Monday morning the European GFS European GFS both of them have a cold front

05:36that has come through the northeast uh let me drop for you this is the European see it's come on through

05:41a lot of people were talking about a Christmas Eve blowtorch that's not going to work may get warmer

05:48for for at least parts of the northeast it will farther south but that's the cold front that's the

05:53European the GFS is very similar see it has the cold front through here as well so both of the

05:59modeling and they've been consistent says okay there's a cold front coming Monday into Tuesday now

06:05what that does is that sets you up for the possibility of a storm at some point Christmas Eve because

06:11high pressure builds in here's the European high pressure is in and then you see with this energy

06:17coming with the west southwest flow you're going to try to attack the cold air with the west southwest

06:23flow now the European may be a little too far north with this look at the pink look at the pink it may

06:29be a little too far north the GFS also shows it but it's a little later it wouldn't it would be the

06:36next day instead of Christmas Day it would be Christmassy so here's what to expect Christmas

06:41week stormy along the west coast and watch for the possibility of some snow and ice in these areas

06:49on Christmas Day I'm going to keep an eye on it and this is going to be our story on the feed all week

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