00:00hi we continue to look at Christmas week we've been looking at that for the last
00:09five days or so it's going to start off tranquil as we get in the early part of
00:15the week but again somewhere around Christmas Day or even the day after
00:20Christmas there's going to be an opportunity for a little bit of snow ice
00:24and rain across the northeastern part of the mid-Atlantic here I want to take you
00:29out to the surface map on Monday so here you go this is our surface map on
00:35Monday and what do you see is you see that you've got an area of high pressure
00:40here on Monday right in here you see that now what does that mean should be a
00:46relatively tranquil start to the week but as we go forward watch what happens
00:51there's going to be another little frontal boundary that's going to approach as we
00:55get into Tuesday and Wednesday here comes right in here now out ahead of
00:59that on Tuesday could be some spotty precipitation here across the
01:03Northeast won't be a whole lot but that sets us up for Christmas Day and let me
01:08show you what happens here here's that frontal boundary Tuesday and Wednesday
01:12watch the cold air come down and then as we set up on Christmas Eve what do you
01:16see you see a puddle of cold air here you see this all of the blue here this is
01:22where you're gonna have an injection of cold air now as we've been talking about
01:27from the get-go here the real question is is are you gonna have are you gonna have
01:34some a system attacking the cold air from the west-southwest and if you do you're
01:43going to get an area of snow so again here's the cold air on Christmas Eve you
01:49can see a banked up in here now do you get a system coming out of the west-southwest
01:54flow to attack the cold air and produce some precipitation now I think the answer
02:00is yes what we're not sure about is how far north this system is going to be and
02:06that will dictate who gets the snow let me show you the surface the upper level map
02:11here this is European so here we go here comes the frontal boundary Tuesday and
02:16Wednesday there's Christmas morning you have an area of high pressure here the cold
02:21air is in now what does the upper air look like you've got this piece of energy right
02:25in here you see this across the Rockies that's Christmas morning that then comes
02:30east and then pushes into the Northeast as we get in the Christmas night and the
02:37day after Christmas right in here and what the modeling is showing is that there
02:41could be some ice there could be some ice with this now according to the European
02:47model this isn't going to be arriving until Christmas night in the Northeast
02:52there'll be some problems Christmas day near the lakes but you can see the cold
02:55air look at all this the pink showing up this could be some freezing rain as we get
03:00into Christmas night Friday morning and then that goes to the wayside and then we
03:05get brisk and colder as we head toward Christmas weekend now that's what the
03:10European looks like I want to show you the American model same kind of idea you've got a
03:15frontal boundary coming on through here it comes as we get in the Tuesday and in the
03:21Wednesday here it is alright so here we go this is Christmas Eve same idea you have
03:26an area of high pressure now the Europeans the American was a little faster you see
03:31here's the shortwave in here the European has it out across the Rockies but the
03:36American model has it across the Midwest right in here so as that comes east that
03:43comes right into the cold air when on Christmas Day and you could see what the
03:48American model does it tries to bring some ice some freezing rain and a bit of
03:53snow across Pennsylvania and New York State on Christmas Day European shows the
03:59same thing it's just a little later in the game it doesn't happen until Christmas
04:04night in the day on Friday so this is something we're gonna have to watch here
04:08there appears like there's gonna be a snow and ice threat across New York State and Pennsylvania
04:14at some point Christmas Day or Christmas Day night into the following Friday doesn't look like a big
04:22storm but it would be an impactful one just because of the threat of ice one other thing I
04:27want to talk about here I want to talk a little bit about California here and I want to show you this
04:34it they've been bone dry in California we don't have a lot of snow in the Sierra right now but
04:41as we get in the next week look at this big dip in the jet stream starting to take shape here Monday
04:46and then watch this as we get into Tuesday and Wednesday so this is Christmas Eve so this is a
04:52pretty good setup for rain in Southern California you've got this big dip in the jet stream and you
04:58could already see rain trying to come into Southern California here we go and more importantly and I
05:04cannot stress this enough this kind of pattern Friday Thursday this is Christmas Day and this
05:10whole trough coming in to California in the Saturday what this will also do is produce a lot of snow into
05:18the Sierra and this is exactly what we need because you have to remember when it comes to California
05:25what's just as important as rain you also need a lot of snow in the in the in the Sierra because remember
05:37it's that snow melt that fills the reservoirs during the spring months I want to show you next what this
05:44snow is going to look like here moving forward as we we head into the next seven days I like to start with
05:51this and then show you what it's going to look like so here we are right now today so this is all of
05:56the snowfall and what it's going to look like here as we go in the ears Christmas Day and watch what's
06:04going on here in the Sierra Wow look at this as we head in the next week you see that late next week
06:12you're talking about feet of snow in the Sierra and that's exactly what we need also this is good news for the
06:20the Intermountain West you see that they need to snow in the Northern Rockies as well so this is a good
06:26pattern for the Western United States to get to rain and mountain snow the other thing to notice when you
06:32look at this snow as we go forward there's not going to be a lot of it the snow will continue to fall from the
06:39lakes toward New England but once you get to across parts of Pennsylvania and Virginia it seems very unlikely you'll have a
06:46white Christmas but let's watch that storm on Christmas Day and that's the feed
06:52so
Comments