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00:00NFL news and notes, none bigger than the Patrick Mahomes news. He actually had surgery already on his torn LCL and ACL in his knee. Most times, Joe, you know what we see? They wait two, three, four, five weeks here to make sure the swelling goes down. But apparently the LCL had to be done immediately here to help him get back on the field sooner than later. Still devastating news here and still trying to process what that means to Chiefs Nation, Joe. Devastating news back on the mend. We'll see when the quarterbacks typically, Joe,
00:29can come back quicker than, let's just say, running backs or wide receivers because you're standing in the pocket as opposed to running for 440s. But Patrick Mahomes hopes to be back early next year by September, he says.
00:40Yeah, and listen, I mean, that's all good news. It really is. I mean, I think he had the surgery done, interestingly enough, in Dallas by a couple of Cowboys team physicians, which is interesting, that specialize in that.
00:56And the fact that he can and they expect him to begin the rehab process immediately, Donnie. I mean, that's fantastic news if you are the Kansas City Chiefs. I mean, Andy Reid at least sounded somewhat upbeat about it and confident about it.
01:12I mean, as much as you can. But, yeah, I mean, usually 9 to 12 months. But if you think he can be on an accelerated timeline, Donnie, then what are we talking about?
01:23Maybe the mid, you know, by the end of October, November of next year? That's going to be real interesting to see.
01:29That certainly will be. Let's hear from Andy Reid here talking about Patrick Mahomes.
01:32I've had a good visit with him a couple of different times. So he's he's in a good place.
01:42You know, he he always feels like he let people down, but then he comes back and he he's ready for the challenge ahead.
01:51You know, which is what's real right now. He's just got to get get through surgery, wherever it might be, and then and then move on from there.
02:05Big Red needs him back sooner than later. And also, could this have some impact on the offseason for guys like Travis Kelsey?
02:12If they want to make it next year and see what happens, because, again, the Chiefs are over the cap.
02:16The Chiefs are getting older and also their star quarterback won't be there all offseason to get the troops ready for when it's time to play in September.
02:23We'll keep tabs there all offseason long on the Kansas City Chiefs.
02:27Also have a Christian Watson. We thought it was a devastating injury.
02:30It looked like maybe a broken collarbone or a terrible injury to the shoulder.
02:33Doesn't look all that bad and not ruled out for this weekend's game.
02:36Hey, look, you lose Micah Parsons. You can't afford to lose Watson.
02:40He's been sensational this season coming back from an injury.
02:43Looks like he's going to be OK, though.
02:45He was. And to me, in that in that Broncos game, especially, Donnie, that that was a bigger loss when Christian Watson went out.
02:53That was a bigger loss because don't forget, they lost Tucker Craft.
02:56And until Watson came back, they really didn't have anybody that could stretch the field.
03:01And then Christian Watson gets in there. And all of a sudden, you know, that's that's the guy that you've got to worry about if you're a defense. Right.
03:09Well, once he got off the field, you didn't have to worry about anything at that point.
03:12And the offense went MIA. Listen, Parsons is going to be tough enough.
03:17But the good news is, if you get Christian Watson back, the offense should still be able to carry them.
03:24No. And again, it's a good sign there because the offense is going to win the day stinks because that was one of the teams that you thought could make a deep playoff run.
03:30Why? Because when you need to rush the passer, nobody better out there than Micah Parsons to try to get after.
03:35But he's not going to be there. They'll rally. And as Matt LaFleur said, also postgame press conference, nobody's going to feel sorry for us.
03:41Oh, no, Micah. OK, take a couple of wins here for free and head to the playoffs.
03:45Nobody feels sorry. The game keeps moving on. Take a look at Jaden Daniels.
03:48Hey, cooler heads prevailed. He's out for the season. Good for him.
03:53Unless it was like, oh, no, the Eagles in that defense are coming after us.
03:56We can't afford to lose the kid any longer. Smart move by Washington. There's no reason to put him back out there this season.
04:03Yeah. After the fact, like you shouldn't have brought him out to begin with the second time, Donnie.
04:07I mean, we've been screaming like there is your season is over.
04:11You know, the injuries took their toll. You can't protect this.
04:15Shut him down. But you rolled him out back again and he hurt his elbow again.
04:19And here we go. But yes, finally, somebody, an adult in the room stood up and was like, yeah, no, no more.
04:25This is it's over. Bye bye now. Yeah.
04:28It's a wrap on the season for Washington. Just play out the string, improve your draft strategy and be done with it.
04:33Oh, yeah. You picked up a win against the Giants. Congratulations for losing out on the draft in that spot already.
04:38Joe Burrow, he says he's going to continue to start. And why not?
04:41They were sensational against the Ravens. They scored zero points in that game.
04:46But, hey, you make a lot of money. You're going to play out there.
04:48And Joe Burrow's like, hey, I'm not having fun, but I'll keep playing.
04:51It's just not going well.
04:55You know, and I feel bad for Burrow because, I mean, a guy is every year, Donnie, it feels like he's got to go through hell and back, you know, between the injuries.
05:04And then you got to deal with the organization and then you still can't win.
05:08And it's like this this guy is just I don't blame him, quite honestly.
05:13I mean, you know, at some point you got to feel all the the effort in the work means something, right?
05:18It can't mean you're getting shut out, you know, in week 15.
05:21It just can't. Yeah.
05:23How about this story here? And it does deal again with the Bengals.
05:26We talked about it yesterday. The cheapest organization in sports.
05:30Instead of like having so much disrespect for your fans, like what's next, Joe?
05:34Hey, I paid for my parking spot. Get your shovel and clear your own parking spot.
05:39OK, well, now you go into the stadium and say the least of my concerns is going to be it's a cold weather game.
05:44We stink. I paid for these tickets. Let me go sit in my seat.
05:48Oh, I can't. There's snow and ice sitting there. I have to clean it myself.
05:51And if I don't, I'll be freezing cold the entire game.
05:54Pro Football Talk sent out a tweet yesterday.
05:56Hamilton County Commissioner Stephanie Dumas isn't happy about the Bengals' failure to clear the snow from the seats at the stadium owned by the county and leased by the team.
06:03Do you know why those seats weren't cleared?
06:05Because it probably would have cost them $25,000 in overtime to pay some of the workers just to brush off the seats and clean it.
06:11That's how cheap the Bengals are.
06:13It's amazing to see each and every day that organization, how horrible it actually is.
06:18And it goes against league policy, right?
06:21I mean, like the league is very specific.
06:23We can't have fans of the NFL showing up, slipping and sliding, having to clean off their own seats and paying.
06:30Like, first of all, if a fan actually took the effort to go to that game, Donnie, like you ought to, it should be heated seats.
06:38You ought to just walk them in, give them whatever they wanted and thank them for being such a loyal fan.
06:44Instead, yeah, you get in here and, God, you can clean your own seat.
06:48Sorry.
06:48Like, they already get you for everything, right?
06:51Like, the thing that I always loved the best and it now is it's permeated into, like, Las Vegas.
06:55Like, pay to park.
06:56I paid for a ticket.
06:57It's an empty lot.
06:58I have to pay $50 to pull into an empty lot on game day that just sits here.
07:02It's unbelievable.
07:03And the least they can do is just clean off your seat.
07:05I'm going to say, hey, it's raining.
07:06We can't keep your seat dry.
07:08I get it.
07:08Here's a towel.
07:09Go wipe it off.
07:09But snow and ice in your seat where, and by the way, have you ever been to a football game?
07:14I have where you're on concrete where your feet sit.
07:16If there's ice and snow, your feet are frozen the entire way through at this point.
07:22Congratulations, Cincinnati Bengals fans continue to endure that nonsense.
07:25Phillip Rivers, he's actually chosen to be the starting quarterback on Monday Night Football.
07:30I can't believe it.
07:32It should be Riley Leonard.
07:33It was fun to watch Phil as it was.
07:36That is not sustainable at this point right now, but he's getting a start again, Joe.
07:39Well, again, whether it's Riley Leonard or Phillip Rivers, you're going to need the other facets of your team to be at the top of their game.
07:49You're going to need the defense to do exactly what they did against Seattle.
07:53You're going to need your special teams to be on top of their game, right?
07:57Listen, just don't lose the game.
07:59That's it.
07:59It's clear he has the mental capacity and he hasn't really skipped a beat.
08:04Read the defenses.
08:05Don't, you know, just don't lose the game for us.
08:08And that's it.
08:09Whether it's Riley Leonard or not, the concept is the same.
08:12But at least you still have Riley Leonard backing up in case something happens to him.
08:16So we'll see how it goes.
08:18As long as you brought him off the couch, you might as well play him.
08:21By the way, that game listed here at 46 and a half right now at FanDuel, 45 and a half, DraftKings, depending where you're shopping at.
08:28Most of those are 46s.
08:29How does that game go over?
08:31Because you saw the script for the Colts.
08:33They're going to use the same script here.
08:34Three yards and a cloud of dust.
08:36Run this clock out.
08:37Play good special teams and good defense and see if we can steal it at the end, which they almost did against the Seattle Seahawks.
08:43So if I'm the 49ers, I'm handing the football for the McCaffrey as well.
08:46That clock is going to be churning here as we go, Joe.
08:49Any thoughts on that game?
08:50Five and a half point favorite for San Francisco on the road.
08:53I don't know if Indy can keep this close again.
08:55Maybe they can.
08:55I don't know.
08:56It's a hard handicap.
08:57Listen, if they can bring that same kind of effort and energy that they brought against Seattle at home, I think they'll be in the game.
09:08Absolutely.
09:09And five and a half, you know, the book is telling you we have no idea, Donnie.
09:12We've got no clue.
09:13Oh, the NFL.
09:14We know they like to contradict themselves quite a bit here and have their sort of head in the sand.
09:19And it was for decades where they told you we don't want any sports gambling around our sport here because it could ruin it here.
09:26And not acknowledging that, oh, yeah, the reason why you get a ton of ratings, even when it wasn't legalized sports gambling, was because there was always sports gambling.
09:35And people would watch sometimes a crummy product like you might find last night.
09:38But still, you had cheering edges if you took the Steelers, if you took the Dolphins, the over, the under, and or prop bets.
09:44So now the NFL is telling us, you know what?
09:46We're the official sponsor of DraftKings and FanDuel and their endless ads at stadiums.
09:51We love the sports betting market.
09:52And now they want to write to Congress to say, hey, polymarket and counseling these predictive marketplaces.
10:00Boy, this might be really damaging.
10:02We need to stop these.
10:03Joe, come on now with this.
10:06Yeah, because only the NFL would see a difference between those two things and think that one is okay and one is, oh, wait a minute.
10:13One is actually paying them.
10:14Oh, I see.
10:15Yeah, this is a whole lot of hand-wringing, Donnie, and a whole lot of, listen, we'll be fine with you as long as you're paying us.
10:25But only, I don't know that they're going to, the polymarkets and the calcities of the world are going to play in that sandbox with the NFL.
10:32Mostly, Donnie, because they don't have to.
10:36It's amazing.
10:37Like, it really is when you look at it.
10:38And you know what's coming down the corner.
10:40Bring them in front of Congress.
10:42Ask them questions.
10:43The NFL goes, okay, let's come to the table.
10:45Well, polymarket, give us $2 billion.
10:47Cal sheet, $2 billion.
10:48You can both be equal partners.
10:49We'll split it up.
10:50One in the AFC, one in the NFC.
10:51And everybody goes along.
10:52Like, what if you're looking at legalized sports gambling, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, whoever it might be, how could the predictive markets have an issue with how the NFL works or vice versa at this point?
11:04It almost is so stupid it doesn't make any sense.
11:07Because you know we're right around the corner from having an NFL polymarket commercial.
11:12It's coming, people.
11:13We just don't know how to get there.
11:14And the NFL is trying to get the government involved to try to squash these because they can't make money off them yet.
11:19So Congress is like, hey, guys, get in the same room, make money off each other.
11:22Is that what we're waiting for?
11:24Yeah, that's basically it.
11:26It's always about the money, Donnie, right?
11:28It's always about the money.
11:29Don't forget.
11:30Remember when, you know, when originally FanDuel and DraftKings, the whole fantasy market came out?
11:35They were running nine million commercials during the game.
11:39The NFL was like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.
11:40Wait a minute.
11:41Yeah.
11:42Well, P.S.
11:42Soon.
11:43Eventually, they became partners.
11:45And look at what happened here.
11:46So same thing.
11:48It's the same playbook, Donnie.
11:50Just different companies right now.
11:51Yeah, Dustin Galker tweeted out yesterday, new on my newsletter, the NFL told the House committee that sports-related events contracts should not be approved by the CFTC in written testimony, easily the most aggressive stance we have seen from a major sports league.
12:07So this says, well, DraftKings, you can bet on the 49ers winning the Super Bowl, but predictive markets, you can't do that.
12:14That's crossing the line.
12:16Oh, yeah, because there's such a huge difference there.
12:20I mean, you know, you got to be, stop it.
12:23Just absolutely stop it here.
12:25But we all know what this is, Donnie.
12:28And it's their version of a shakedown, so to speak, and say, hey, listen, you know, we got to, we're going to make enough noise and make it that uncomfortable for you until you come down and we all figure out how to get on the same page.
12:41But here's the other thing, Donnie.
12:42It's, DraftKings has paid a ton of money to sponsor with the NFL.
12:47So I'm not exactly sure how that they're going to be all excited here that they're going to take money from one of these predictive market companies.
12:54So should be interesting to see how this plays out.
12:57It's one of those, and I'm going to tell you right now, because, you know, there are some really shrewd and unbelievable business owners in the NFL.
13:05You know, Mike Brown of the Cincinnati Bengals, not one of them.
13:07But if you remember when, you know, that Jerry Jones, Dallas Cowboys, Netflix or Amazon Prime, whatever the series was, that five-part deal, Jerry Jones at the forefront of going, oh, the NFL is like, yeah, we're a Coke product league here.
13:22And Jerry goes, official brand of the Dallas Cowboys, Pepsi.
13:25Let's go.
13:26And then if I was like, well, now hold on.
13:28We all have Coke as a sponsor.
13:30You can't go out and get Pepsi.
13:32AT&T Stadium just might be known as Polymarket Stadium.
13:36And Jerry Jones is like, man, this works in perfectly.
13:38Yes, DraftKings and FanDor are the official sponsors of the NFL.
13:41But the Dallas Cowboys, it's Polymarket.
13:44It's a shocker, right?
13:47It's absolutely shocker.
13:49These billionaire owners, Donnie, they're going to figure out ways to get their slice of the pie one way or the other.
13:56I, for one, can't wait to see how it, because it's just a whole lot of people pointing fingers, screaming and yelling.
14:02And ultimately, Donnie, we know how this ends, don't we?
14:05With more money for the billionaire owners.
14:08Look, again, I don't even know how the NFL does it, Joe, with a straight face.
14:12Like, we have legalized gambling, but a market that's essentially legalized gambling is going to jeopardize our quarterback, running back, our league, and we just can't have this in.
14:21Because, again, they told you for decades, we can't infiltrate the sports betting market.
14:26The minute it got legal, I was like, this is great.
14:28And look at all the $2 billion, the $4 billion, the $8 billion.
14:31Franchise go higher.
14:32Why?
14:33Because sports gambling allows more eyeballs on the TV, people.
14:36Hour number two is next.
14:37Predictive markets.
14:40And as I like to say, I'm scrolling down to find Miami.
14:44And if you want to bet Miami right now to make the college football playoff, Joe, or excuse me, the college football playoff, they have a better chance of probably making that, the Dolphins, than the actual NFL.
14:54They're still allowing you bet, Joe.
14:57Is there a sound?
14:57Can you get overturned in professional sports?
14:59Like, we are officially eliminated for the Miami Dolphins, but you can bet $100 to win $10,000.
15:04If the Dolphins do make the playoffs, how would they make the playoffs?
15:08Would it have to be a catastrophic event?
15:10One team opts out?
15:12I don't know how it would do it, but you could still bet them, Joe, in some of these predictive markets.
15:15Does that sound like a good wager?
15:17A little bet on Miami to make the playoffs right now?
15:21No.
15:21No, no, no.
15:22There are maybe a few other bets, Donnie, worth making on the board, but the idea that, well, since the headlines across the country are Miami eliminated from the playoffs, probably not the best bet to make on the board.
15:36Sometimes the best bet to make, Donnie, is no bet at all, if that's the direction you're thinking here.
15:41But they are eliminated.
15:44And listen, I give him credit, though, man.
15:46I thought they would have been eliminated weeks ago because I thought he lost the team, but he didn't.
15:53They made a run, and I think it shows that he is, in all likelihood, back again for Miami next year.
16:00Yeah, we're going to take a look at this Cal Street market here in just a few moments here on the Pro Football Playoff Qualifiers.
16:05But bring up that last graphic that we just had on the screen because it's amazing in the NFL.
16:09The NFL isn't structured like, let's just say, Major League Baseball.
16:12And again, if you're bad, you get the top overall pick.
16:13But in baseball, it's a crapshoot.
16:15Number one picks, probably more likely to not even make it to Major League Baseball than actually be worth their weight in gold at this point.
16:23Miami has not won a playoff game since 2000.
16:25If you understand what that means, that's 25 years.
16:27In an NFL sport that goes, okay, if you stink, we will give you better draft picks than everybody who's better than you in the league.
16:34Oh, yeah, and at the same time, we'll give you easier schedules than anybody's ever had.
16:37That's why the NFL takes pride in every single year you get all of these teams that you didn't think would make the playoffs make a playoff from
16:44because how easy their schedule is.
16:45And then you say a team like, let's just say the Philadelphia Eagles, having a decent season.
16:49But I looked at that schedule and said, this is the toughest schedule I've ever seen in my life.
16:53It's done on purpose.
16:54You don't give the best team to leave the easiest schedule because they were good last year.
16:57It's the opposite, Joe.
16:5825 years of not a single playoff win.
17:01That's unbelievable to even think about.
17:05It's been a hot minute, Donnie.
17:07And you're right.
17:08It's absolutely crazy when you think about it here.
17:11But it's the reality of the situation right now, Miami.
17:16And every year, we think we get a little bit closer, a little bit better.
17:20And it started when they hired McDaniel, right?
17:22And got themselves Tyreek Hill.
17:24And boy, oh boy, things were going to be great.
17:26And no, yeah, no, it went from bad to worse.
17:30And to me, a lot of it starts with leadership and ownership, right?
17:34And they don't have any.
17:35They've already fired the GM.
17:37So fingers crossed, Dolphin fans, maybe they can get the GM higher right next time.
17:43Yeah, let me take a look here.
17:45I just want to bring up the standings quickly as I get a look,
17:47because there's some of these marketplaces that I do think you might be able to make some money
17:50and certainly find it intriguing.
17:52And the case in point would be in the AFC North, Joe.
17:54The Pittsburgh Steelers now sit at eight and six.
17:56The Baltimore Ravens at seven and seven.
17:58I was actually looking at some of the playoff breakdowns here for the Steelers.
18:03Did you know the Steelers can actually lose their next two games?
18:05But as long as they beat the Baltimore Ravens in the final,
18:07they would get the nod over the Ravens who sit at seven and seven.
18:10The reason I bring this up on the Couching markets right now, Joe,
18:1358% chance here.
18:15Pittsburgh makes the playoffs.
18:17Baltimore at 44%.
18:18For some reason, Joe, I just can't give up on the Ravens.
18:21Just to make the playoffs, $100 wager pays back 233.
18:24But Pittsburgh, which does have the upper hand, $100 wager pays back $173.
18:30If we're just looking, Joe, at the AFC North between Pittsburgh and Baltimore,
18:34which way is it for you?
18:36Better price point is on Baltimore.
18:37But again, they have a little bit more to actual damage to do throughout the rest of the season.
18:42Well, and here's the deal.
18:45Both of those teams control their own destiny because they have to play one another.
18:50So both of them, and that's exactly, they don't need help.
18:53They don't need, both of those teams, you know, figure out what separates them.
18:58And I'll say this.
18:59Look, Pittsburgh looks like it's getting more and more comfortable,
19:02both on the defense and offensive side.
19:06Baltimore, it looked like Lamar Jackson, to me, was getting a little healthier.
19:10All things being equal here, I got to give the edge to Baltimore.
19:14I think it's a better value play.
19:16By the way, Joe, it's almost like we got to, you know,
19:19go to the expanded playoff in the NFL because some good teams are going to actually get left out of the playoffs.
19:24You look at the NFC.
19:25Detroit's got a 36% chance, Joe.
19:27Did you know that's down 17% from when they played the Rams?
19:30$100 wager to make the playoffs pays back $278.
19:33They're 8-6.
19:34But who are they actually getting in over?
19:36The Green Bay Packers?
19:38The 49ers?
19:38The Seals?
19:39No.
19:39Like, I don't think they can jump any one of those teams.
19:41Now, granted, if you have three weeks to go, injuries are going to take place.
19:44But it's like Detroit's a good football team.
19:46They're going to be left out.
19:48Or, Joe, would you bet the yes here to get back involved, huh?
19:51Intriguing.
19:52Intriguing stuff.
19:52Yeah.
19:53Well, they're going to have to win out.
19:54They don't control their destiny, Donnie.
19:56That's the difference.
19:58Let's look.
19:59Rams, Seahawks, quick look ahead to Thursday night next.
20:02Let's go.
20:02NFL action, Joe.
20:03Let's get a look at some of these games this weekend.
20:04And more importantly, what's going to take place on Thursday night.
20:07A huge battle in the NFC West, Joe.
20:11And as I look right now at the standings, those Rams, 11-3.
20:16Seattle Seahawks, 11-3.
20:18San Francisco 49ers, 10-4.
20:21So, two teams looking to do battle to get supremacy in the NFC West.
20:25The Rams come in.
20:26They're not going to have Devontae Adams.
20:28Puka Nakua shaking up at the end of the game here.
20:30It seems to be he's okay.
20:31The Seattle Seahawks, they're an interesting bunch.
20:34Yes, they won last week.
20:36They didn't look all that good.
20:37But that defense is really good.
20:38And a home field advantage on a short work week on a Thursday night.
20:41You look at the line.
20:43Opening line at the FanDuel Sportsbook lease was one and a half.
20:46Still sits that way today.
20:47But other outlets, Joe, like DraftKings, do actually have the favorite to the Seattle Seahawks today.
20:52A total from 46 and a half down to 44 and a half, depending on where you're shopping.
20:57This is a great game here.
20:59Which Sam Darnold shows up?
21:01Or do you just trust the pedigree of the Rams, even without Devontae Adams?
21:05Too many weapons.
21:06Too good at coaching.
21:07The better quarterback.
21:09And possibly the better defense.
21:10What a game here.
21:11Looks like a coin flip, Joe.
21:14Yeah, it does, Donnie.
21:16I mean, I think you're going to give the Rams the benefit of the doubt since they've gone, what, back to back 40 burgers here on teams.
21:24But again, no Devontae Adams now, although he's been nursing that hamstring for the last couple of weeks.
21:30He has not been 100 percent, but he won't even be available.
21:33And we got to know what's going on with Puka Nakua, right?
21:36I mean, he did survive that hit, but, you know, he did look like he was a little wobbled at the end of that game.
21:44So Matt Stafford could be a little shorthanded in this spot here.
21:48But then you've got to say, all right, Seattle at home, they barely survived Indy.
21:54Can they bounce back here?
21:55They've been able to put up points in bunches, too, as well.
21:59But, you know, could this season, as it begins wearing on, are we starting to get the Sam Darnold of old here?
22:07Is that what we're going to start to see?
22:09So I agree it's a coin flip.
22:11I would give the advantage to to Matt Stafford and the Rams.
22:16But my goodness, it does feel like which team is going to have who and what available to play in this game.
22:22I wouldn't bet it till I know for sure what I'm getting from the Rams and who's going to be on the field.
22:27Yeah, Devontae is probably not going to be there.
22:29Look, you know, that sniper injury.
22:30They've been talking about possibly resting him up to the playoffs.
22:33And maybe if they get that one seed to give him a little bit extra time here throughout the bye, if they can grab it.
22:37But the one thing you look at this, it is a coin flip game, but it just feels like, you know, the public is going to side with the Rams, which they are early on.
22:43It's just a fact, no matter of what do you think you're getting out of Sam Darnold in this game.
22:47You get good Sam Darnold, they're right in it, man.
22:49Seattle's got a great defense, good running game.
22:51JSM, one of the best wide receivers in football.
22:53They can move it.
22:54But sometimes you just watch them and say, ooh, the Seattle team, like in the first half against Atlanta.
22:58Yeah, they woke up in the second half.
23:00They should have lost the football game to Phillip Rivers and the Colts this past weekend at home.
23:04We'll see how it plays out, but it is a big advantage to have that game in your own building on a Thursday with that crowd noise here.
23:10Game number two, we'll talk about, Joe.
23:11Saturday night football, we've got a doubleheader.
23:13Game number one is the Eagles and the Commanders.
23:15Game number two, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears.
23:18Monster game in the midway for this one.
23:21Three and a half point favorites at the look ahead side for Green Bay, Joe.
23:24They're gone.
23:25They're minus one and a half to minus ones, depending on where you're shopping at.
23:29And a total of 46 and a half.
23:31No Micah Parsons here.
23:33Balmy conditions, by the way, Joe.
23:3435 degrees expected to kick off in the Windy City Saturday night.
23:38Well, that's impressive, right?
23:40My goodness.
23:42But you've got to, you know, that line of look ahead of what?
23:46Minus three ahead of time, now down to minus one.
23:51Don't confuse it.
23:52That has probably very little to do with the Micah Parsons injury and maybe has a lot more
23:58to do with what version of the Packers that we just saw and the fact that the Bears, well,
24:04the Bears did exactly what they needed to do.
24:07Bounced back, destroyed a team that they are better at.
24:10Now they find themselves at home with an opportunity to put this division away.
24:15Listen, I think the market is beginning to buy more and more into Chicago.
24:20I think that was a big test these last couple of weeks.
24:24They likely could have won back-to-back weeks if it wasn't for that fork-down,
24:28head-scratching call there against Green Bay.
24:31But listen, I think they have an opportunity to even the score here.
24:35And Christian Watson, is he playing?
24:37Is he not playing?
24:38Because if he's not, I want nothing to do with Green Bay in this spot.
24:41Yeah, I don't, he's, it's up in the air, but I don't know, maybe give him that extra week off
24:46just to be safe, but he's such a big part of that offense, man.
24:49He's come back off of the injured list and been one of the more dominant wide receivers in football.
24:53Yeah, we know Green Bay is going to be able to run the football with Jacobs,
24:55but you need to extend it downfield.
24:57And you're right.
24:58Chicago Bears are playing really good football at this point and a great game to watch that play out
25:02Saturday night from the Windy City.
25:04Sunday afternoon action, Joe, one o'clock start, Tampa Bay and Carolina.
25:07Look at these monster games we had down the stretch.
25:09This game going to go a long way to know who's going to decidedly win that NFC South.
25:14You look at Tampa Bay on the road, they opened up around two and a half.
25:17That line currently sits today at three across the board, a total 44 and a half up to 45 and a half.
25:23Baker Mayfield and also Rice Young.
25:25You take a look and say, all right, you know, Mayfield and the Bucs really struggling.
25:29Last week, Carolina goes on the road, loses to New Orleans here at this point.
25:32Do you trust Tampa on the road as a favorite?
25:35The boys are back in town, as we like to say, Joe,
25:37but the defense is not holding up their end of the bargain for either one of these teams right now.
25:41No, they're not.
25:43But I can promise you this.
25:45Todd Bowles will have his defense ready to go for this game.
25:50And the fact that.
25:51Oh, my goodness.
25:53And the fact that the Saints knocked off the Panthers after a week after knocking off the Bucs,
25:59which is pretty funny.
25:59But all of a sudden, that breathes a little new life into Tampa, right?
26:03Because had Carolina won that game, my goodness, Tampa is up against it.
26:08But now and now here we go.
26:11They got a little extra rest here.
26:13We already saw them get a little healthier on the offensive side of the ball.
26:17They're coming in with a little bruised ego here.
26:20And it's got bounce back, I think, written all over it for the Bucs.
26:24So it doesn't shock me that this open two and a half and we're seeing early money on the Bucs.
26:30Panthers have been better at home than on the road.
26:32But my goodness, did anything you saw from the Panthers excite you about backing them here as a, you know, no, no, it doesn't.
26:41Yeah, ground game, not so great.
26:43Tep McMillan had a nice catch last week for a touchdown.
26:45But outside of that, hey, man, New Orleans got themselves a quarterback.
26:48But also, you're looking to look at that loss.
26:49It's like, yeah, it's hard to win on the NFL in the row.
26:51But come on, man.
26:52Tyler Shuck, average wideouts, running backs getting injured.
26:55Can't even name who they are at this point.
26:57They lost that game.
26:57Can't do that.
26:58Now, this game, really intriguing to me, Joe.
27:01Jacksonville is on fire on offense.
27:04The Denver Broncos, they can't be stopped.
27:06How about this?
27:07A line of minus three for the Broncos.
27:09Ticket count, Joe, almost 70% on the Jacksonville Jaguars as the road team.
27:14They've been really good.
27:15The total, too, Joe, 43 and a half, up to 45 and a half.
27:19Mile high weather this weekend.
27:21I don't know what's going on out there.
27:2255 degrees, no precipitation, and light winds once again in December.
27:27This looks like the easiest over you can get.
27:30But buyer beware, 85% of the tickets also on the over, Joe.
27:34What a great football game shaping up here in Denver.
27:36Yeah, look ahead line was, what, two and a half or three, depending on what you have here.
27:44So we haven't seen a ton of action one way or another on the side.
27:48But that upgrade to the total, I think, is what stands out most to me, Donnie.
27:54So, you know, opening, what, 43, 43 and a half was the look ahead.
27:58Now we're up to, what, 45, 45 and a half.
28:01And looks like it's still coming in.
28:04And how can you blame him with how good Trevor Lawrence has been?
28:07And Bo Nix might have just played the single best, most complete game of his career.
28:14And he really seems to be figuring things out, especially at home.
28:18We know he's much better at home anyway.
28:20This is a big AFC battle.
28:22One that could be a precursor to something we're going to get in the playoffs anyway.
28:27Can't wait to see how this thing unfolds.
28:29But I do think points are coming, Donnie.
28:32I really do.
28:32I think points are coming.
28:34Yeah, two really good offenses.
28:35And also understand this.
28:36Like, I've finally been able to clear the hurdle with Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos.
28:40Like, oh, who are they playing?
28:41Who are they beating anywhere?
28:42If you watch Bo Nix operate from the pocket, I'm telling you, it's impressive.
28:46That is not a guy that's playing in year number two.
28:48He looks like a guy that's playing 10 years and sees everything coming.
28:51And the one thing that makes it great is he's not the guy, Joe.
28:54Like, let's just say younger Michael Vick.
28:56Hey, you know what?
28:56I'm going to break containment.
28:57I'm going to get 15 yards.
28:58That's what I'm looking to do.
28:59He dances in the pocket and buys time to get his guys open.
29:02You can't sack the guy.
29:04You can't get near him.
29:05The offensive line is very good.
29:06Two of the best tackles in the NFL.
29:08And a guy that understands manipulation of the pocket, he's been fantastic.
29:11I do find it fascinating that, once again, Joe, they're the favorite in this game.
29:15And they're not getting the respect right now.
29:17Similar to what you saw in Green Bay last week at this point right now.
29:20Hey, let's keep it moving on right now.
29:23We got a surprise guest coming up next.
29:26Right back here on the early line.
29:27It is a Tuesday.
29:28We're setting up the rest of this week, and it is going to be exciting.
29:31We got the college football playoff.
29:32We got a huge game on Thursday night action.
29:34We got Saturday college football playoff, Saturday NFL action, Sunday NFL action, and
29:39away we go.
29:40Feels like we're just getting started.
29:41Donnie right side, Joe Ranieri.
29:42Let's bring in Adam Kaufman here to the show on a Thursday to rise and grind.
29:45And yeah, we're going to get caught up on some New England action from this weekend.
29:49Huh?
29:49How about that, Adam?
29:51Look, I was in the building for that game, and it was definitely a tale of two emotions.
29:55You know, you watch in the first half, and you feel like with the Patriots up 21-0 at one point, 24-7,
30:02that this thing is just cruise control.
30:04It's going to be over.
30:05You know, it starts even, you get ahead of yourself, right?
30:08You start to think, man, okay, it's hard enough to beat a team twice in a regular season.
30:13Can you beat a team three times if you have to face this team in the playoffs?
30:17And I've heard, you know, the flip side after the Bills come back that, well, maybe this is what people do, right?
30:23This is maybe a good thing because we know how to, you can't beat a team three times.
30:27So if these teams are 1-1 going into a playoff meeting, all of a sudden you could put an edge back on New England.
30:33The crazy thing, though, to me, guys, is what we saw, and this is really a testament more than anything else to the Bills, to Josh Allen,
30:42to, you know, you think back to that late final five minutes, whatever it was,
30:46come back from down 15 against the Ravens in week one.
30:49Last week, coming back from down 10 in the fourth quarter to beat the Bengals,
30:53and now obviously another big comeback against the Patriots.
30:56You can never count that guy out, but we saw history.
31:01Like, truly, let me pull up the number real quick because it was just, it was insane what we had witnessed here
31:09from a statistical standpoint.
31:12Here you go.
31:13Entering the game, teams with at least nine games over .500, which, as we know, Patriots were going in,
31:19with a 20-plus point lead, had never lost, were 161-0 all time.
31:26This is the very first time in NFL history a team with that margin, with that level of regular season success to date,
31:33had just sort of defecated all over itself.
31:36And, you know, there was the inability to slow down Allen, to slow down James Cook.
31:43Cook, you know, to me was a real X factor going into the game because it was, you know, strength against strength.
31:49It was the number one rushing offense in the NFL against the third-ranked rushing defense in the NFL,
31:54which was going to prevail.
31:55The Patriots bottled up Cook when they saw him back in week five in that game in primetime in Buffalo.
32:00This time, Cook scores three touchdowns.
32:03There's your game.
32:03So, you know, I don't worry about the Patriots winning the AFC East.
32:07They've got the tiebreakers against the Bills.
32:09Buffalo is still a game back, three to play.
32:12It would take a real meltdown for New England to lose that.
32:14But what I think it did decide is that number one overall seed.
32:18With the Broncos coming back against the Packers and winning that game, they've got tiebreakers against New England
32:24and now the one-game advantage with a few to play.
32:26So, I think it's a foregone conclusion at this point that the Broncos and the number one team would be first-round by.
32:33The pain of this is because if you are a New England Patriots fan, and let alone the team itself,
32:38like you had that big lead in the first half.
32:40And sometimes they just take a snapshot at them and look at the box score and say,
32:43how did this happen?
32:44If you come into the game and say, Don, I'm going to give you unlimited funds which way you want to bet.
32:47Well, tell me about the rushing scenario for New England.
32:49How about 25 carries for 246?
32:51Good for 10 yards per carry and four touchdowns, and they lost.
32:55Now, granted, it's not the last week of the season.
32:57It's not the playoffs like, oh, that's going to hurt.
32:59You have time to rebound.
33:01But just psychologically here, sometimes it's not a bad thing because when you are a young team learning how to win,
33:06Vrabel can stand up there and go, see that, guys?
33:0821-point lead at that point here.
33:09This should have been a shutdown effect.
33:11Now we're really going to buckle in.
33:12I don't mind that loss because they still should win their division.
33:16And you look at the price points here.
33:18Patriots minus 270, Bills plus 210.
33:20They will.
33:21It does hurt the number one seed, but it is a devastating loss.
33:24But I got to tell you, it's not really a bad loss because that could be a teaching point on saying,
33:28how do you close games out and put your foot down on the opponent, especially when they're good like the Bills?
33:33Yeah, and to your point, Drake May in his, you know, very young career is one in three now when trailing going into the fourth quarter of a game.
33:43And so, you know, he has had an inability in these situations.
33:46Not that it's all on the quarterback, but we always, when we talk about these things, put it on the quarterback.
33:51He hasn't had that, you know, in the building, okay?
33:55So the, and if you were watching on TV, I'm sure as well, but I can promise you, tens of thousands of people,
34:00as you're watching this thing in real time inside the stadium, Patriots, all right, they give up the touchdown.
34:06They're down.
34:07They get the ball back.
34:08There's two and a half to play.
34:09And you're looking at it and you're saying, they got all their timeouts.
34:14They got the two minute warning.
34:15Everyone in that stadium is waiting for the Tom Brady moment, right?
34:18Or the Drake May arrival.
34:20Like this is, now we're going to see that two minute drive and the Patriots, they march down the field and they win this game.
34:26And instead, it was a very quick drive.
34:28Might have even been a three and out.
34:30And, or, you know, the, you didn't convert on fourth down.
34:34So a four and out, I suppose, because they didn't punt it, obviously.
34:37But then just a quick meal out of the clock for the Bills, game over.
34:40Very disappointing.
34:41But I think as you're saying, Rabel, the culture setter, the leader that he is, he's of course going to, you know, they're going to dissect that film.
34:49I'm sure they've started that process already and look at all the different ways that that game went sideways.
34:53And, you know, I don't know.
34:55Maybe there is some merit to, it's not the end of the world for any team that is riding a nice long winning streak.
35:02And for the Patriots, it was 10 in a row going into this one to suffer a little bit of a setback, a wake-up call, whatever you want to term it, going into the postseason.
35:10Just to remind yourselves that, hey, like, you're not perfect.
35:13You are beatable.
35:14But what it does at the same time is people are just kind of, with the Patriots in particular, keep pointing at the schedule and say, man, like there's been one winning team on this schedule.
35:25And that's the Bills and you've split with them.
35:27What's going to happen when you're facing nothing but good teams in the playoffs, even if they're coming through your house for at least a couple of rounds.
35:34So we're going to find out in due time, maybe even as soon as in Baltimore, when they're underdogs in prime time coming up, just how good this team is.
35:44That's the problem, right?
35:46I mean, it's not exactly going to get easier from here for New England.
35:51What's your initial thought with the Ravens game coming up?
35:54It's a field goal game.
35:55What are you thinking?
35:57So what I was thinking with the Bills, and I bring it back to this for a reason, is, man, I don't know if Josh Allen, taking nothing away from Josh Allen, this was more about the Patriots defense, if Allen is capable of winning a shootout against New England.
36:12But that was me ultimately, I guess, in retrospect, giving the Patriots defense too much credit.
36:17I kind of look at the Ravens game the same way.
36:20If the Patriots can rebound defensively, they're not going to have an issue scoring against Baltimore.
36:25That defense sucks.
36:26So what's the defense for the Patriots do with Lamar Jackson, Derek Henry on the other side?
36:30If you can find a way to slow them down and keep the game in the 20s, I think the Patriots win it.
36:35If it gets out of hand, meaning your defense continues to have issues, as it has in recent weeks, and the Ravens are scoring at will, Baltimore probably will.
36:44That's Adam Kaufman.
36:45Thanks for joining us this morning.
36:46We'll be right back after this short break.
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