- 7 months ago
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00:00How about this next game, Tom?
00:01We're going to talk about in the NFL.
00:02This is what we love.
00:03And also, kudos to the NFL a couple years ago, Tom, saying, you know what?
00:06We're going to put some of these divisional games late in the season
00:09where they actually mean something.
00:11What a monster game.
00:12Tampa Bay is going on the road to take on Carolina Sunday at 1 o'clock.
00:16That opening number, at least at FanDuel, Tom, was 2.5.
00:18It's moved to 3 across the board.
00:20But if we look at the ticket counts here, more ticket counts coming in on Carolina.
00:24A total 44.5 up to 45.5.
00:26Last week, you saw both of these teams with a lot on the line
00:28came up a little bit lame, which includes Carolina going to New Orleans
00:31and losing the shuck at quarterback.
00:33Now Mayfield, with his weapons, maybe even getting Cade Otten back this week.
00:37They're the favorite, Tom.
00:38What are you thinking here on the spread line?
00:40I'm thinking you've got to be back in the Panthers.
00:43They play well when they're an underdog.
00:45You know, they were at home against the Rams.
00:47They went out right.
00:48They were on the road against the Packers.
00:49They went out right.
00:50When they're a favorite, as they were last week against the Saints, they lose.
00:54So anytime you can get a home team that's in a playoff spot or a playoff hunt
00:58and getting points, I certainly don't mind backing.
01:01And it's not as if the Bucs are leaps and bounds better than the Panthers.
01:05Like the Bucs may be the better team on paper and have the better quarterback
01:08and the better weapons top to bottom, but they're just not in form right now.
01:11They are not winning games.
01:12They're not winning games that they are supposed to win.
01:14So I would take the Bucs blindly.
01:17But, you know, saying, oh, they're the better team.
01:19You're in one of the field goal.
01:20But I think the Panthers are the right side to be on.
01:22Give me a home team as the dog.
01:24Yeah, I'm very, very interested to see because you're right.
01:28When most people just see those two teams line up, give me Baker Mayfield,
01:30that offense.
01:31But you look at their schedule and how they perform.
01:32The Bucs hasn't been too good here.
01:34Let's find out on Sunday who's going to take control of the NFC South.
01:38Let's take a look at a key game here.
01:39Indianapolis looking to still make the playoffs sort of on a slide.
01:43San Francisco having a great year, but it is counter to what their actual schedule is
01:47of how good this team actually is.
01:49But, Tom, this opened up minus five and a half.
01:51Now sits at six and a half, road favorite for San Francisco, total at 46 and a half.
01:55I have trouble handicapping this game because of what I saw last week.
01:58Phillip Rivers can't play quarterback, but he's very cerebral.
02:01He can't throw the football, but now he's at home in a dome.
02:04He can't throw the football, but last week he's going up against Seattle,
02:06one of the better defenses in the NFL.
02:08Now he gets one defense that actually can't rush the passer.
02:11So I'm sort of conflicted here, Tom.
02:12Your import on San Francisco and Indianapolis, is it still,
02:15we're going to control the ground game, try to win with our defensive special teams.
02:19But, if San Francisco can get a lead at any point in this game,
02:22it's going to have to change that game plan for the Colts, no?
02:24Yeah, so that latter point that you're making is the thing I'd be the most concerned about.
02:28If San Fran jumps out 14-3, 17-7, that's where I'm really concerned with the Colts, right?
02:36Where I think, yes, it has to be a big Jonathan Taylor game,
02:39as we saw last Sunday, against Seattle.
02:41And they want to kind of keep things close to the vest.
02:43If it can stay in a one-score game and it's a neutral game script for the Colts,
02:47that's where I think they will be fine.
02:49But as soon as it breaks out of that, I'm not sure that there's enough,
02:53I don't want to say talent, because we know Warren's great,
02:55we know Michael Pittman's great, Jonathan Taylor,
02:57all these options that they have, Downs and Pierce, all these guys.
02:59But I'm not sure that Rivers can effectively get the ball down to them
03:02so they can string together multiple touchdown drives.
03:05So if San Francisco is up 17-3, it is full red alert,
03:09and I think they will cover by 10-plus at that point.
03:11And again, it's because if you can get a perfect game script,
03:15you can probably get Phillip Rivers over 150 yards passing.
03:18But last week was the absolute perfect game plan for the Colts.
03:21They probably should have won the game.
03:22Groupie hits a 60-yarder, but your defense doesn't get a stop.
03:24It's like, wow, they played it perfectly.
03:26Again, as Tom points out, if they're down a touchdown,
03:29it almost completely changes the way they have to play,
03:32because they want to go three yards in a cloud of dust,
03:34wait this out, 16-14 final if they can.
03:37I don't know if they can do it here.
03:38News and notes around the NFL, and it's big ramifications.
03:41Don't you remember, Tom, just a few short years ago,
03:43it's like, hey, man, Tua's a better quarterback than Herbert.
03:46What a big conundrum.
03:47Should he have taken this quarterback or the other one?
03:49Now it's starting to play itself out where you're watching a quarterback.
03:52And I can't fault Tua at this point, but sometimes it still amazes me.
03:56Like when Tua came out of college, somewhat mobile, very accurate arm,
04:00he can be a system quarterback, and you move forward.
04:02And now it's like, okay, he's injured all the time.
04:04He's one concussion away from probably not playing again.
04:07And he can't move in the pocket, which is astounding.
04:09Like he's Phillip Rivers back there, it feels like.
04:12And he has no arm strength.
04:14And now he's on the bench with $50 million a year as a quarterback,
04:18and he's going to be your emergency third-string quarterback, Tom.
04:20Tough scene.
04:20Absolutely terrible, really, just for the entire organization.
04:25Bad pick.
04:26You think things would start off, or the way they should start off, I should say, Donnie,
04:30is you think he'd at least be a league average quarterback, if not slightly above it,
04:33pushing towards the top 12.
04:35Okay, we may have to surround him with good pieces, but this is a quarterback we can win with.
04:39We have a good system.
04:40We have good this.
04:41We have good that.
04:42And we can win with him as quarterback.
04:43Like he may not be a game-changer by himself, but as long as the pieces around him are solid,
04:48then you'll be in a good spot, and really it's none of those things.
04:51And we saw glimpses of it when the offense was out there, scored 50, 60, 70 points a couple
04:56years ago against the Broncos, and they can run the ball, they can throw the ball.
05:00But as soon as there's one crack in the dam, everything flips to the other side, and it's
05:04terrible.
05:05He's not getting the ball downfield.
05:06It's not proper play calling.
05:08He's not being utilized properly, at least in my estimation.
05:13And then the arm strength is the biggest issue for me, is that he can't get the ball to
05:16the receivers as he once did.
05:18And that's really what it comes down to.
05:20The offense changed so much from it.
05:22It started so hot, and now it is completely different, and yet the pieces are the same.
05:27Yeah, one of those teams, Tom, that a couple years ago, you thought they were the evolution
05:30of the NFL and how much fun the Dolphins would be making the playoffs.
05:33They can't do it anymore.
05:34And also, case in point, Monday Night Football, McDaniel took the kickoff.
05:38A couple plays looked really good.
05:39First and 10 on the 40-yard line for the Steelers going in to take momentum.
05:42A lame duck deep out that gets intercepted, like, here we go again.
05:45And that's why he's on the bench, because performances like that on Monday Night.
05:49But it threw two touchdown passes.
05:50Yeah, it threw them late in junk time.
05:51Congratulations.
05:52You're on the bench.
05:53And by the way, here's McDaniel talking about the benching as well.
05:56You know, I think, you know, there's, I said it before, but ultimately, the team needs,
06:06and I'm looking for conviction in quarterback play.
06:09And understanding that he is a rookie, you know, I felt that he would play the position most
06:18convicted, which is, and which impacts every player on the field.
06:27And, you know, realistically, that's what I was looking for.
06:32I needed more convicted play from the quarterback position.
06:36And I thought Quinn could deliver on that best.
06:39Hey, maybe Quinn can throw some deep balls out there.
06:42We'll certainly find out.
06:42And also, the Miami Dolphins looking to get younger, even on defense.
06:45Matthew Judon was released, and that's a bad pass rush as it is.
06:49I don't know if they're in tank mode, but they're in evaluation mode now for the Dolphins.
06:53They really are.
06:54And, I mean, credit to any team that may pick him up.
06:57That could be a boost to them heading towards the playoffs.
07:00And, yes, Judon isn't the same player that he once was, but if you put him in a rotation
07:05along an already strong unit on the defensive side of things, that's where he can make an
07:09impact, not having to play 100% of the snaps.
07:12And to your point with the Dolphins, to see more teams let go of veterans as the season
07:16goes on and as they're efficient limited, I think it's become a growing trend.
07:20And there's no pass rush here.
07:22This actually may be a game for Burrow to finally put up a huge performance since he's been
07:26back, obviously, outside of that Thursday night Thanksgiving game.
07:29Yeah, no frigid conditions.
07:31You'll be in Miami at this point.
07:32Take a look at Jeremiah Love.
07:33He's going to the NFL, rightfully so.
07:35One of the best backs we've seen over the past couple years.
07:37Going to make it big in the NFL, Tom.
07:40Yeah, this is the time of the season where players are going to be opting for the NFL
07:44draft.
07:45They're going to be opting out of bowl games or entire teams are going to be opting out
07:48of bowl games as is the case with Notre Dame.
07:51But I think it'll make an impact.
07:52Obviously, it comes down to where he's drafted, as we always see once April may roll around.
07:57Oh, they're drafting running backs too high.
07:59Drafting running backs high is fine if you have the pieces around him, namely an offensive
08:03line, to see him succeed, unlike Ashton Gentry.
08:06So I think he will be a very good NFL player.
08:09And I think he'll land in a good spot.
08:10Social media, Tom, sometimes athletes, you just stay off it and you don't get yourself
08:15caught up in the line.
08:15One thing the NFL doesn't want you to do is criticize the referees as acting like they
08:19only call penalties because they want to get on TV.
08:22Come on, Puka.
08:23You got a big game tonight.
08:24Focus, kid.
08:25Focus.
08:26Yeah, this is not the time to be making that type of comment.
08:29A, right before a game or B, in the middle of the season.
08:33Any slight thing, Puka, you know, is it going to be personal foul, roughing, whatever it might
08:37be, refs are going to have their eye on Puka tonight and moving forward.
08:42We got a Green Bay wide receiver we're going to talk about in the next segment, but more
08:45importantly, the Chicago Bears trying to get leverage on the state of Illinois and the
08:50city of Chicago.
08:51Find out what they are trying to do, Tom.
08:55Don't go anywhere.
08:56Football Thursday, baby.
08:58Come on.
08:58How about the Green Bay Packers?
09:00You go on the road last week, tough environment.
09:03Not only do you lose the game, you lose Micah Parsons, who it looked like Christian Watson was
09:06going to be down with maybe a collarbone injury or something wrong with his shoulder and not
09:09available for the remaining parts of the season.
09:12Well, he still lost Micah Parsons with that ACL, and that's going to be damaging come playoff
09:16time.
09:16But Christian Watson, looks like he's going to give it a go this weekend against the
09:19Chicago Bears.
09:20That is massive news.
09:21And by the way, Tom, you know as well as I do, since coming back from that injury,
09:25he's been one of the better wide receivers in football.
09:27They need him to be healthy and producing.
09:29And it looks like he's going to be back this weekend for a monster football game.
09:32Yeah, like you said, not just, you know, one of the best receivers in the NFL.
09:37He's down right there, best receiver right now.
09:40And they absolutely need him.
09:41And this is a massive game when it comes to the NFC North and really the NFC playoff picture
09:46overall.
09:46So losing Parsons, yes, massive deal for their defense.
09:50But not having Watson out there, I'm not going to say it's going to be a bigger impact,
09:53but it would change how we view their offense overall because Reed is just coming back from
09:58an injury.
09:58We're not getting enough out of the rookie Matthew Golden.
10:01We know that Kraft is done for the season.
10:03You know, Josh Jacobs is solid, but he's still been a little bit banged up.
10:06So Watson is a vital piece to that offense.
10:09So now having a full complement of tools and love should be able to move the ball.
10:13And frankly, Donnie, they're going to have to try to outscore teams now.
10:16I'm not sure if they have enough pieces on defense that they can just try and shut down
10:20teams and hold them to 13 points.
10:22I think they need to put penalties to the medal and say, we can score 28 or 30 points on offense
10:27and try and keep up with us.
10:28Yeah, absolutely.
10:30It'll be interesting to see how it plays out because the Packers aren't dead.
10:33Of course, they lost their best pass rusher, one of the best in the NFL, but we'll see
10:36how they can rebound big game against the Bears, as we pointed out.
10:39Now, talking about those Chicago Bears, negotiations are everything.
10:43And usually an NFL football team gets exactly what they want whenever they want and wherever
10:47they want.
10:48But if anybody knows anything about Chicago politics, it doesn't work that way.
10:52You got to grease the skids every way.
10:53And if you feel you're not getting the best deal, you start to look elsewhere.
10:56What are we talking about, Tom?
10:58Oh, it's the Chicago Bears' new stadium, who, by the way, renovated and basically have a
11:01brand new stadium at Soldier Field.
11:03It's not the city of Chicago's fault that they built a terrible stadium, which is too
11:07tiny for their marketplace.
11:09Maybe they should have some visions of, let's build not a tin can spaceship on the lake and
11:13add a little bit more seats.
11:15So they're looking elsewhere here.
11:16So they stay there and renovate that stadium again on the same site, or they move out to
11:19Arlington Heights, which has a little bit more land, which the Chicago Bears bought.
11:23But understand this, when you're still trying to look for the city to kick in money in the
11:27state, if it's not going your way, you look elsewhere.
11:29Usually it's in like a suburb, maybe north of Chicago or west of it to move it out of
11:34the city.
11:34They're talking about, Tom, moving it out of the state into Indiana.
11:39Now understand this.
11:40Wait, Illinois, Chicago to Indiana, it's actually not all that far when you turn to it because,
11:45hey, look at Notre Dame, it's in the middle of nowhere.
11:47No, it's not.
11:48It's actually in relative distance to Chicago.
11:50So they're looking to down negotiate with Indiana, who would roll out the red carpet
11:53to get that stadium top.
11:55What do you think about the Bears?
11:56Maybe called like the Gary, Indiana, Chicago Bears.
12:00How about that?
12:01You know, I see this as simply just a negotiating tactic to your point.
12:04It is.
12:05Like they just want to move to Arlington Heights.
12:07And that's where it should be.
12:08In my mind, that's where it should be.
12:10A brand new complex.
12:11What we see teams do like, you know, Jerry World, it's not just a stadium.
12:15It's a whole surrounding area with all the attractions, the shops, the restaurants,
12:19all those sorts of things.
12:20That's what the team should be looking to do.
12:23Arlington Heights is the right venue.
12:24And I believe that's where they will end up.
12:26It's not going to be easy.
12:27This is just a negotiating tactic.
12:29They'll get the money and the sides will finally meet in the middle.
12:31But moving them out of the state is the wrong answer for the franchise.
12:35They're just doing this because they have to do this.
12:37They have to tip the scales in their favor for the city and the state of Illinois to finally give in.
12:42And they will because Indiana will take it seriously, if not just to say, hey, you know what?
12:47We're going to one up you and give you a boatload and just force Chicago to pay more than in the state of Indiana.
12:51We'll laugh at that.
12:52Like we talk about in Philadelphia sports time, which I am.
12:54Like you can sit in the link in the top row and throw a snowball and hit New Jersey.
12:58So every time new stadiums come up or arenas like the Sixers do, they go, we'll move right across the river to New Jersey.
13:05And so it goes, how much do you want?
13:06How much do you need at this point?
13:07Even like the Philadelphia 76ers practice facility, which was always in the city, actually did move to New Jersey and got them upset.
13:14So now their next negotiation with the new arena was, we'll just go to Jersey.
13:18Whoa, you're actually real.
13:19And you'll call our bluff.
13:20We'll lay out the red carpet.
13:21Whatever you need to keep these arenas in Philadelphia, we'll do for you there.
13:25Now, we got a big time game tonight, Tom, in the NFC West.
13:28It's the Rams.
13:29It's the Seahawks.
13:31Get a look at this.
13:32The Rams were the favorite all week long up until yesterday as a favorite between one and one and a half.
13:37Completely swung around.
13:39Seattle, now the favorite at home at minus one and a half.
13:42Those early numbers, Tom, the 46 and a half on the total, they are gone.
13:46It's 42 and a half.
13:47Why?
13:48We have wind and some rain in the forecast and sustained winds, Tom, around 20 miles per hour.
13:54Devontae Adams will not play tonight.
13:55So, it is all on Puka, who now the refs are like, ah, you want to say we call flags?
14:00Just call flags?
14:01No flags for you, pal, pass interferences.
14:04How do we feel about that line swing now over to the Seahawks?
14:07Yeah, I think it makes a lot of sense.
14:09Short week, weather issues.
14:11A team at home.
14:12A team at home that plays in the weather.
14:14You know, dealing with a dome team going into weather.
14:17There's so much going on in this game.
14:19And, you know, to your point with Devontae Adams not expected to play due to the hamstring issue from last week.
14:23You know, we always talk about this, Donnie.
14:25This is when Puka is actually the toughest to trust.
14:27You think, oh, just throw the ball to Puka.
14:29But, A, because of the wind, that's going to be an extreme impact tonight.
14:33But the Seattle defense is just going to roll coverage over to Puka.
14:36So, I see this as a ground game mainly for the Rams.
14:39I think this is a very, very tough spot to bet into at a 42 and a half, knowing how much the total has dropped.
14:46And I understand why Seattle is the favorite.
14:48I don't love them in this spot.
14:49I would simply take the points if this were reversed, if Seattle is getting a point and a half or two points on the road in the divisional matchup.
14:56I may look to back Seattle at that point.
14:58But, my goodness, this line total, I should say, the total dropping so much is the most concerning thing.
15:04I'll tell you what's so much fun about this, too, because both of these defenses are really, really good.
15:08But Witherspoon, according to Pro Football Focus, the number one ranked cornerback.
15:12You know the number one wide receiver in Pro Football Focus's rankings are?
15:15It's Puka Nakua.
15:16Like, this has some really, really good things shaping up.
15:18But also, Tom, you know, indicative of that low 40s price point.
15:22If you play this game in Los Angeles, maybe that price point's higher because you don't have to worry about it.
15:25But last time we saw these two teams play, like, Sam Darnold was terrible.
15:29But, Tom, do you remember?
15:30They still almost won that football game, despite how bad he was.
15:33I want to talk about this angle as well because I've been trying to figure out what we're going to get from Darnold.
15:37Remember last year, everything was, look at the Vikings and Darnold's going to be their future quarterback until he wasn't.
15:43When the pressure really ramped up, he couldn't perform.
15:46That game against Detroit, bad.
15:47That game against the Rams, bad.
15:49He needs this for his psyche tonight, Tom.
15:51And maybe it's all on Darnold's shoulders tonight.
15:54I would say the same thing.
15:56Like, maybe McVay and the Rams just know something about Sam Darnold that no one else does.
16:02In the playoffs last year when they were in Arizona, if we remember correctly, they had to play that game at the Cardinal Stadium.
16:08And then a couple weeks ago when Darnold threw the four picks, they know something about Sam Darnold that other teams don't.
16:12And they can get after him.
16:14So, yes, Sam Darnold does need this just for his mental and his psyche to be on the right side of things.
16:18But, again, with the weather, I'm not sure that this is the spot that he's actually going to be able to get it done.
16:22So, no matter how much he wants to, this is not a 275, three-touchdown type of performance day because he can't do that because of the weather.
16:30So, as long as he doesn't make mistakes, I think that's a win for him.
16:34So, even if he has to throw for just 200 yards, 175 yards, one touchdown, and then it's a ground game, as long as he does not make mistakes, that's a win for Seattle.
16:43That's what they need at the end of the day.
16:45Tom, maybe my favorite double up we're going to have this season here in touchdown props if we do it from either team's side.
16:51You know me.
16:52I love myself some wide receivers, but that's not where I'm going in this game.
16:56If I take a look at Seattle and give me two, Tom, Charbonnet and Walker, both plus 185 price points here.
17:03If we flip it over to the Rams in weather conditions, Kyron Williams and Blake Corum, plus 125 and 3-1 at this point now.
17:10You've got to be like, if I look at this game plays out, and still it's 42, so the correlation will be, let's just say, five touchdowns almost at this point.
17:17I think I can get a touchdown rushing from either side and both of those guys to get in.
17:21And I love it.
17:22I think it's so much fun tonight.
17:23Where would you go touchdown props for some looks?
17:25I love that look as well.
17:27And, you know, I talked about Blake Corum earlier in the week where, you know, Frank, he's just seen more of the ball.
17:32This is not like an 80-20 split in the backfield for the Rams.
17:36It's like, it's actually becoming closer.
17:37And oftentimes, we see the backup running back on Thursday games, especially divisional games.
17:41This is where we see them shift towards that secondary running back more and more often.
17:46And that is like compounded by the fact that A, there's weather, and then B, Devontae is out tonight.
17:51This actually could be a huge running game for all four running backs and maybe three of the four score tonight.
17:58I love it, man.
17:59It's a fun game to watch.
18:00It has the line movement that you look for here.
18:02It's weather conditions.
18:03But also, sometimes, Tom, on these standalone 30-minute football games, it's two teams out of the playoffs this late in the season.
18:09This is going to be for supremacy.
18:10You can argue, Tom, the winner of this football game will be the number one overall seed in the NFC.
18:14So much on the line.
18:16We'll be getting started today.
18:18Hang on.
18:19We'll be back in this week break with more hot topics on the way.
18:23NFL, baby, starts tonight, Tom.
18:25One and a half point favorite for Seattle.
18:27We'll get to that in just a little bit.
18:28But we do have a doubleheader on Saturday.
18:31More football is awesome, man.
18:32Like, I'm telling you.
18:34Like, college football feels a great need on Saturdays.
18:36We get that.
18:36But when college football winds down, the NFL helps us out, Tom.
18:40A doubleheader.
18:41Meaningful, too.
18:42The Philadelphia Eagles taking on the Washington Commanders in game number one, followed by Green Bay and Chicago game number two.
18:47The five o'clock start is the Eagles and the Commanders.
18:50Hurts is going to take on Marcus Mariota.
18:52Why?
18:52Because Jaden Daniels isn't going to play the rest of the season.
18:55And rightfully so.
18:56It's the right move for the young quarterback.
18:58The Eagles opened up as five and a half point favorites, Tom.
19:00That's now up to six and a half in a total of 44 and a half.
19:03Now, understand this, too.
19:05The Eagles win this game.
19:06They do clinch the NFC East no matter what the Cowboys do the rest of the way.
19:11Their magic number is down to one.
19:12An Eagles victory and or a Cowboys loss over the final three weeks gives them the division.
19:17This seems like a mismatch on paper.
19:19But sometimes these divisional games do get tricky.
19:23I'm not.
19:23Look, I like the fact that the Eagles won last week and easily dispatched with the Raiders.
19:26That was a peewee football team that came to Philadelphia.
19:29They were horrendous in that one.
19:31You're going to get a punch from Washington, Tom.
19:33How we feel about this game?
19:34Maybe side total or a prop look.
19:37Commanders want to play spoiler.
19:38Like that's, I think, was my prevailing, you know, takeaways or sentiments from the game.
19:42Not takeaways.
19:43That previous game was commanders want to play spoiler.
19:45Commanders have dealt with so much this season.
19:47You know, Daniel's done for the season, losing Zach Gertz for the year.
19:52I lean on the under.
19:53And a part of this would be that the commanders have to put a full effort in.
19:56If they're going to try and play spoiler, they're going to have to try and slow down the Eagles offense, which, you know, Donnie, they put up 30 plus points last week.
20:03But it was against the Raiders.
20:04Prior to that, the Eagles offense wasn't great.
20:07Now, this commander's defense is also very bad.
20:09So I lean under in this game.
20:12Could I see the Eagles still covering on an under game?
20:14Yes, but I think the under is my first spot to go when it's all said and done.
20:18I will say there are some interesting teaser opportunities this week.
20:22If you were to use the Eagles six and a half, if you use a six point teaser with them, you could pair them with a team such as the Bills or 10 and a half point favorites.
20:31If you wanted to bring them down and make that a little bit more palatable, that's where I'd be looking to go.
20:35And or the Lions were at home in six and a half point favorites against the Steelers.
20:40Just the Eagles and the Lions both win, essentially.
20:44Yeah, no, makes a lot of sense here.
20:45By the way, looking at this game, too, short work week for the Eagles.
20:48Like, you're going to get your carries from Saquon Barkley, but he did have a stinger last week in that game.
20:53You saw Bigsby come in in that relief.
20:55And again, it was a late game, but still runs well.
20:58I don't see any numbers.
20:59I'm trying to see posted on Bigsby's backup.
21:01But if you're going to get one of those cheap prices, Tom, 13, 14 yards in this game, I'm taking Tank Bigsby as one of those guys that just give me a couple carries in this with maybe a little bit banged up Saquon and we'll move forward at this.
21:12Also, you saw last week Jalen Hurts banged up early third quarter.
21:15You know, sort of got that knee caught up on a tackle and looked awkward.
21:18He says he's fine.
21:19That's something to look at as well this weekend.
21:21But the Eagles should be able to beat the Washington Commanders on Saturday.
21:24That night game here, Tom, the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers.
21:28That opening line before we saw the injuries to Parsons and or Watson was three and a half.
21:34That number has dipped down the most outlets as we see right now, Tom, minus ones.
21:38And even now, I'm saying DraftKings has a favorite here for the Chicago Bears.
21:43They've been playing green football.
21:44But also, Tom, I feel like, look, I like the Packers, but I feel like we're making too much about Micah Parsons being down and Watson's supposed to come back as if they can't win this game.
21:53Are we getting a discount on Green Bay or to you, is the Bears the right play?
21:58I think we I think both things can be true.
22:01Like, I would say if you got the Bears before the line move, great.
22:05I would not bet into the Bears after it's passed the key number.
22:09And you're betting them potentially as a favorite.
22:10As you said, the line has moved to them being minus one half.
22:13I would not bet the Bears at this point.
22:14They can still very much win this game.
22:16And I do think there's a discount on Green Bay.
22:18I will say this game is going to be cold.
22:20It's going to be in the 30s.
22:21There's going to be about 10 mile par wind.
22:23There's going to be no snow, but it's not overly dramatic wind.
22:26And so, like, it's going to be bad conditions, but it's actually not terrible.
22:30I will say it's about the under in this game.
22:32It's about the under.
22:32This is a critical game for both teams.
22:35If the Bears were to win this game, there is a path forward that the Packers actually don't make the playoffs.
22:41So, this is a critical game for both teams when it comes to not just making the playoffs, Donnie.
22:47We saw that the Bears were the number one seed a couple weeks ago.
22:49With that loss, they dropped them down as the wild card.
22:52So, this is about winning the division, getting home field advantage, all these sorts of things.
22:56The under, the under, the under.
22:58Yeah, a lot of meaningful football games this weekend.
23:00Again, Thursday, Rams, Seahawks, Saturday, Packers, Bears, Bucs, Pampers, Sunday, Steelers, Lions, Jags, Broncos, Patriots, Ravens, 49ers, and the Colts,
23:09which is what we're going to talk about next on Monday night.
23:11This game is so intriguing to me because when you watch some things with your eyes,
23:16and you don't want to, like, say, you know what?
23:17You've still got to stick with the numbers.
23:19Like, I watch Phillip Rivers.
23:20He can't move.
23:21He can't throw a pass.
23:22But then you sort of have to leverage it by saying, okay, it was his first start back.
23:25He was just getting back under center after three days of practice.
23:29You know it's probably going to get better.
23:31And they're still listing him, Tom, as a price point of around minus 150, minus 155 or so for his passing yards.
23:36He was on the road outdoors, not in the dome.
23:38And Seattle gets one of the better defenses in the league.
23:40He's going to go up against a team he could probably move the football on.
23:43But that's the dilemma because if you do get San Francisco and Brock Purdy,
23:46who have been playing very well in offense, moving that football, that's a six and a half point favorite.
23:51Can they hang around?
23:52Or when do they give up their strategy of, let's slow this game down?
23:56What an intriguing handicap of Monday night football and a monster game.
24:00San Francisco could be the number one overall seed in the NFC.
24:02The Colts, who look like they were printing money and saying, we're going to be the number one seed,
24:06now fighting for their playoff lives, Tom.
24:09Yeah, this game has so many different things going on.
24:12And so many of them are pulling in opposite directions, to your point.
24:16You know, the ideal game plan for the Colts is doing one thing.
24:20But if it goes against that, again, as we talked about before,
24:23I'm not sure they have enough to go in a different game plan.
24:27Like they need to keep this game lower scoring.
24:28The Colts, I don't think, are in a spot to try and win this game 28-24, 31-28.
24:35If this game is high scoring, it's because San Francisco is flying away with this one.
24:39If the Colts win this game, it's going to be low scoring and ugly.
24:42It's going to be the same thing.
24:43When you look at some of the touchdown odds for this game, Donnie, they're insane.
24:47John the Taylor's minus 300, minus 300 to score when you're a home underdog.
24:52Like that should tell you enough about what the Colts game plan is.
24:54The first pass catcher is Tyler Warren, a plus 270 to catch a touchdown for the Colts.
24:59So they want to keep this game as slow, as ground game, and as ugly as possible.
25:04They don't want San Francisco to even get to 21 points
25:07because I don't think they can keep up with them.
25:09Yeah, the prop for Phillip Rivers' touchdown pass, I think, is a half.
25:13But it is juiced there. It's under 200.
25:15But you don't have – it's like when you think about touchdown pass, you're like,
25:18oh, man, let me connect on one from 40 yards out.
25:20Like if they get inside the red zone, he threw a touchdown last week.
25:22You throw a couple quick slants over the middle, a little pick play, you can get in.
25:26It's a very intriguing matchup.
25:27Now, it is Monday Night Football, so you have some time to think about it.
25:29But, boy, you could be really right in this game or really wrong and be like,
25:34hey, man, that's just what I saw from the week previous.
25:36We'll see how that plays out and certainly watching where that line winds up.
25:39New England and Baltimore, I love this game.
25:41It's fantastic. Why?
25:42Because you're waiting on New England to say you beat a lot of bad football teams.
25:46And, yes, you're still a good football team.
25:47Nobody's taking that away.
25:48You lose last week after having a three-touchdown lead at home to Buffalo.
25:52You don't want to let one loss turn into two.
25:55But then you flip it over to Baltimore, who needs every win they can get.
25:58And they're favored in this game at home in Baltimore.
26:01Sharp side this one, extremely sharp, is on the Ravens' top.
26:06Yeah, this might be one of the games of the year.
26:08You know, we started off with, you know, Bills, Ravens,
26:11and that was fantastic at the beginning portion of the season.
26:13But this really does look like the game of the year.
26:16And I know it may not seem like that because the Ravens are literally,
26:20as you said, fighting for every playoff, you know,
26:22when they can get to make the playoffs.
26:24But I'm almost, like, thinking ahead.
26:26Like, what happens if this, like, if the Pats lose this game,
26:30are we actually going to take a step back and be like, hang on,
26:32are they actually frauds?
26:34Because they beat no one to this point, right?
26:36And just, you know, they stacked them a bunch of wins.
26:38They'll make the playoffs.
26:39They can still win the division.
26:40Or are they actually frauds because they beat no one?
26:42And then if the Ravens win this game, are we going to say, hang on,
26:46are the tides actually turning?
26:47Are we actually going to see Lamar in the playoffs?
26:49And they've actually found a way to right the ship.
26:51Despite all the early season struggles that they had and the injuries
26:53and all this, the Ravens are actually back.
26:55And maybe the Ravens are a dangerous team,
26:57maybe worried about in the playoffs.
26:59There's so many takeaways from this game that are potential, Donnie.
27:02Let's get a quick takeaway from May on the MVP buzz, if we can quickly.
27:06You know, the MVP is, it's obviously, you know,
27:09one of the big accolades for this league.
27:12And it's, you know, something that, you know,
27:14it's an honor as a player to, you know, earn the award.
27:17And I respect, you know, all the past MVPs.
27:19But I think at the end of the day, you know,
27:21winning the Super Bowl is the biggest thing.
27:23And I think it's what kind of makes this league go is winning the big one.
27:29And that's what you work towards.
27:30And that's what this game's about.
27:32You know, I love winning.
27:33And, you know, the personal accolades come with all that.
27:35But, you know, I'd rather win than win, you know, personal awards.
27:39Hey, Drake May, MVP style, baby.
27:46We'll be right back at this break.
27:47Sports Grid Network having some fun on a Thursday morning
27:50on a massive, massive weekend ahead in football,
27:53which starts tonight up in Seattle, the Pacific Northwest.
27:56Maybe supremacy in the NFC will come out of that game tonight.
27:59But the time of the program that we like to reach out to the people,
28:02we want to see what they have to say.
28:04Here's our Fade the Public Poll.
28:13It's real simple.
28:14You take a look on X and you see my name there,
28:16at Donnie right side.
28:16You see at Tom underscore Vecchio one over there.
28:19That's how you follow us.
28:20But also, if you're not following the Sports Grid Network,
28:21it's easy.
28:22At Sports Grid.
28:23Hit the follow button each and every day.
28:25Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, Tom.
28:27We ask the public a question.
28:28We want their feedback on today's question.
28:30What is your best bet for tonight's Thursday night football matchup
28:34between the Rams and the Seahawks?
28:36Four options.
28:37Over, under, side.
28:39Rams or Seahawks?
28:40Leader rate now in the clubhouse.
28:42It is the Rams at plus one and a half.
28:44Tom, they are the public favorites.
28:46So the added interest goes to, are we fading the public tonight?
28:50I am.
28:50How about that?
28:51I think there's certainly reason to,
28:53especially since how much the line has moved down.
28:55There's a difference between simply fading the public
28:58and then also, you know, betting into a line that has moved.
29:01If you got the Seahawks at plus one and a half earlier in the week,
29:04that is an absolutely fantastic spot to be in
29:06when it's all said and done.
29:07I lean on the Seahawks at home.
29:09I also lean on the under.
29:11There's a significant amount of weather
29:12that's going to impact the scoring in this game.
29:14I just don't see these teams getting up and down.
29:1720 to 17 final kind of game.
29:20And depending on how this game goes,
29:22because obviously the spread is one and a half.
29:24It's a lower total.
29:24We're not expecting a blowout by either side.
29:26But, like, the psyche of the public on the Seahawks,
29:29as we just talked to Cam,
29:30like, I really think moves in a positive direction if they win.
29:33Because if they lose this game,
29:34yeah, Seattle's going to make the playoffs,
29:35but nobody's going to believe and say,
29:37oh, it's just Sam Darnold being Sam Darnold.
29:39If he steps up, and I don't need Tom,
29:4122 of 26, 295 in three scores.
29:44I just need him to deliver good passes tonight,
29:47be sensible to pocket, and a victory.
29:49And I'm like, you know what?
29:50I might be able to buy in on them.
29:52Right.
29:53And that's really what it comes down to.
29:54It's like, it's not if Seattle wins,
29:56it's how they win.
29:58If they win and Sam Darnold has three turnovers,
30:01interceptions, fumbles, this, that,
30:03and they sneak away with the win, that's bad.
30:06Now, if they win convincingly, and it's a clean game,
30:08and they take care of business,
30:09that is a very, very different story.
30:11There's more potential downside for the Seahawks
30:14than there is upside.
30:15If they win the game and it's clean, that's great.
30:17But if it looks bad, no one will believe in Seattle.
30:20Nobody will believe in Seattle tonight.
30:23Show us, Seattle.
30:24You got prime time footage tonight to take control of the NFC.
30:27Let's see if they can get that done.
30:28Now, Tom, we've been red hot over the past couple days
30:31here with our best bets.
30:32Here's bye, bye, bye.
30:40You can go NHL, Tom.
30:42You can go NCAA football, NCAA basketball, the NBA,
30:45whatever you want, Tom, for the people out there.
30:48Where are we going for a best bet for you tonight?
30:49Let's stick with this Thursday night game,
30:52and let's go to Colby Parkinson, the tight end for the Rams.
30:55Oh, 38 and a half receiving yards.
30:58This plays in for a number of different reasons.
31:00One, Devontae Adams not expected to play tonight.
31:03Two, we see the Rams very often using 13 personnel
31:07in their player packages and using three tight ends.
31:10Three, we see Seattle terrible against opposing tight ends this season.
31:14They've allowed the fourth most receiving yards to opposing tight ends,
31:17sitting up at 952 this year.
31:20So with we have, and the weather.
31:21So when we add all these things together,
31:23and we have a player that's due for more increase,
31:26or an increase in the offensive usage because Devontae's out.
31:29He has a low A dot, so the weather and the wind shouldn't impact things too much,
31:33and Stafford can get the ball out quickly.
31:35And then we just have a favorable matchup because Seattle is deficient
31:38against tight ends.
31:38So with coverage rolling to Puka, they're going to need to pass the ball to someone,
31:43and Colby Parkinson's going to be the one to do that over 38 and a half receiving yards
31:47for Colby Parkinson.
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