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00:00Seattle and San Francisco, and the good part about this game here is the winner moves on as the number one seed.
00:04The loser, they still go to the playoffs, but boy, they could have had it all with that top seed.
00:09We take a look at the opening number, which was San Francisco as a slight favorite throughout the week, Joe.
00:13That's maneuvered over to the Seattle Seahawks.
00:16The Seahawks now, one and a half point favorite and a total of 47 and a half.
00:20Joe, what is your spread line for this battle tomorrow night in San Francisco?
00:23We learned yesterday that Trent Williams is not playing a big offensive tackle for San Francisco.
00:29Kittle likely playing, so Kittle will be back, and outside of that, pretty much the same old, same old.
00:35Cross won't be there, I believe, though, for Seattle, another big offensive lineman that won't be in this game.
00:42The interesting part is while this has flipped a little bit from San Francisco to Seattle,
00:47the total has been getting crushed to be under, Donnie.
00:51This hit as high as 50 and a half, but now we're starting to see 48s.
00:56There was even 47 and a halves.
00:57So this game likely going to feel a lot more like a playoff game than some random week seven game that you might get in the NFL.
01:07And also, this might be a devastating loss to the loser.
01:09Do you remember last year, like that battle for the top seed, Minnesota and Detroit?
01:13Minnesota playing that real quick last year there.
01:16Let's flip it over to the NFL because the New England Patriots are hoping for a number one seed.
01:20Probably not going to get it because Denver Broncos might have a layup on their schedule,
01:23which then New England will probably fall into this two seed.
01:25But the last thing you want at this time of the year when you are trying to come together as a team and win a Super Bowl championship,
01:32is a lot of your players getting in trouble.
01:33Here's Rabel talking about Stephon Diggs.
01:35Good decisions.
01:37How disappointing is it to have to deal with this type of distraction involving two players
01:44with alleged cases against them right now?
01:50Sure.
01:51Well, I would say not disappointing at all.
01:53I think that these are allegations, like you mentioned in your question.
02:01It's things that we have to handle, and every day that there's distractions.
02:07Some are smaller than others.
02:09And, you know, I'm confident that, you know, we'll focus on the Dolphins,
02:15and, you know, those two individuals that you mentioned will, you know,
02:20be able to, you know, handle the ongoing legal process.
02:26What he's basically saying is, we're not going to have to worry about this anymore at this point now,
02:31but they are allegations, but not a great opening to the press conference.
02:34Like, well, how disappointing are you?
02:35I'm not even disappointed at all.
02:37That's a pretty tough quote there.
02:38Well, because they've also known about it forever.
02:42So, neither of these two situations happened 48 hours ago.
02:45Like, this has been ongoing.
02:48They have been well aware of the situation.
02:51They knew at some point this would probably get to where it is.
02:54So, none of this is a shock to the New England Patriots,
02:57and it looks like at least Rabel didn't look like he was all too worried about it
03:02affecting either of these guys moving forward.
03:05No, and we'll see what happens there,
03:07but I doubt anything is going to take place with any infractions against these two players
03:10until well after the Super Bowl and then be dealt with in the offseason here.
03:14Let's get to some football that's going to be played on the field, Joe.
03:17Game number one of a doubleheader on the NFL tomorrow.
03:19Yeah, tomorrow, Saturday, they're playing a doubleheader.
03:214.30 p.m. Eastern, Carolina and Tampa.
03:23We were led to believe, Joe, this was going to be the winner-takes-all game.
03:27Quite frankly, it still might be because if Carolina wins, it doesn't matter what else happens.
03:31Carolina moves on and is in the playoffs, and Tampa Bay is done.
03:34But if the Tampa Bay Bucs win this game, they've got to get their popcorn ready
03:39and watch another football game on Sunday and root for another team in the NFC South.
03:43But we're showing a favorite towards Tampa Bay.
03:46It has three points over Carolina.
03:47I don't really like either one of these football teams,
03:49but I look at Tampa over the past two months, Joe,
03:51and I say to myself, what the heck happened here?
03:53I don't know if I can take them as a three-point favorite.
03:56It might just be the team that's getting the points in this one.
03:58I'm rolling with here.
03:59Close game we anticipate, but not a winner-take-all if Tampa wins it.
04:04Yeah, but again, the NFL just continues to luck out here.
04:10The fact that Tampa at home wins this game,
04:14then the fact that we all have to tune in to New Orleans and Atlanta,
04:18which is supposed to be a meaningless game in week 18.
04:21And that might be the highest-rated game if Tampa wins this one on Sunday.
04:27That might be the most interesting game that we can get.
04:30But listen, to me, I just think that when they come and play a halfway decent game
04:37and you get a good Baker Mayfield at home,
04:40I don't see how Tampa doesn't win this game.
04:44Tampa should win this game.
04:45Forget about the ATS streak.
04:47None of that matters.
04:48The only thing that matters is that they win this game
04:51and whatever happens from there happens.
04:53I just don't trust Carolina's offense to be able to get enough going here in this game
04:59to be able to pull off the upset.
05:01And also, I always like to use this reference here.
05:04We are humans here.
05:05Carolina's going on the road, and I know they're going to say the right things.
05:08We don't care about that game that's going to take place Sunday.
05:10We need to handle our business.
05:12But I think they understand, like, you know what?
05:14This is a road game.
05:14It's going to be tough.
05:15We'll see what happens.
05:16But to be honest, like Atlanta probably is going to beat New Orleans.
05:19Like, who is left to play other than Shuck for New Orleans?
05:21Which credit, he's a rookie.
05:22He's been doing very well.
05:23But Atlanta's going to win that football game.
05:25Because number one is, like, oh, no, the game doesn't.
05:27No, no.
05:28Atlanta's coach is coaching for his job.
05:30Kirk Cousins wants a job in the NFL next year.
05:33B. John Robinson has been going nuts as of late.
05:35You know they're going to bring their A game for Atlanta in a meaningless game.
05:38So maybe it's Carolina rolls the helmets out there and says, hey, we'll see what happens when you can't do that for Tampa Bay.
05:43But if you are looking at the quarterback battle in this one, Joe, numbers are low in this one.
05:47Baker Mayfield live right now, 217 and a half passing prop.
05:50Bryce Young's not even at the 200 number.
05:52He's at 199 and a half.
05:54And you see that graphic at 219, which is probably made up a little bit earlier today.
05:58It's down to 217 for Baker here.
05:59Yeah, it's so funny here, Donnie, because what did he throw for against last week there, against Seattle, Carolina?
06:10What did he have, 53 yards, 60 yards passing or something?
06:14It was, and he can't even get 200 in beautiful condition.
06:18So, yeah, no, not a lot of faith here.
06:21I'd be looking to fade the Carolina passing game here in this one.
06:24So, you take a look, and again, the thing that we like about this, Joe, we love to bet touchdown props just like everybody else.
06:30Every single player, Joe, in this game is a plus money touchdown prop starting at plus 125.
06:35How about that, people?
06:37You go everywhere and get that plus money.
06:39This is the early line on Football Friday on the Sports Grid Network.
06:43Fresh off the New Year holiday.
06:44It's kind of interesting because today should feel more of like a Monday vibe.
06:47Like, okay, getting back to work for most people.
06:49But most people have a lot of days off, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, to get ready for some NFL action and still some bowl games coming up on your dial.
06:57Donnie, right side, and Joe, in here, we welcome in Tom Vecchio for an exciting weekend of football, which has a doubleheader tomorrow, a full slate on Sunday.
07:04And then, Tom, away we go into the playoffs.
07:09Exciting close to the NFL regular season.
07:12You know, two really important games to start things off on Saturday.
07:15A super important game to close out the regular season on Sunday night, which I'll be live for with Brady.
07:21I'm ready to go.
07:22I will say quickly, though, varying degrees of motivation for all of these teams and players this week.
07:27So, be ready for that when it comes to looking at props or, you know, game lines overall.
07:32Yeah, you are seeing some wild swings, Tom, in some of these games.
07:35You look at the starting quarterbacks are starting to filter through.
07:37Like, Clayton Toon's going to take a play for the Green Bay Packers.
07:40You know, you think, look at Kenny Pickett for the Raiders at this point.
07:43Some teams are tanking.
07:44And also, how much can you tank in that Dallas Giants game if Dallas outtanks you and Dak plays one quarter?
07:49And then, Dart's like, yeah, you know, I'm going to try to win.
07:51Then you ruin your stock.
07:52There's a lot of things to watch out for.
07:54But I do want to ask you this quick question, Tom, before we get to the Saturday schedule.
07:57Lamar Jackson is coming back for the Baltimore Ravens.
08:00And I know it sounds crazy.
08:01For me, Baltimore's a better team than Lamar Jackson is healthy than his quarterback.
08:05But some of the narratives are, why mess up maybe a good thing?
08:09And how invested is Lamar?
08:10And what Lamar are you getting?
08:11Talk to me about that Sunday night game we'll be on live for.
08:14Yeah, I talked to Joe about this yesterday.
08:16And, you know, it really comes down to I don't think the Ravens should be laying three and a half.
08:22This is a team constantly we have said this year.
08:24It's like, oh, well, they lost us last week.
08:26They'll bounce back this week.
08:27And then they don't.
08:28It's like, well, they're the Ravens.
08:29They'll bounce back this next coming week.
08:31And they keep non-bouncing back, I should say.
08:34So I don't expect to get a full, healthy Lamar.
08:36Expect him at 75% or 80% when it's all said and done.
08:38And, yeah, not messing up a good thing when they had Tyler Huntley.
08:41Regardless of who's their quarterback, it should still be a big Derrick Henry game.
08:44He should be going over his 18 and a half carry prop, knowing that the Steelers' run defense isn't fully healthy.
08:49T.J. Watt on the other side coming back from his lung puncture, whatever it is, is expected to play.
08:54But that's not fully guaranteed.
08:55He's not going to be 100%.
08:56And also the Steelers aren't a team that we can trust, you know, farther than I can throw them.
09:00So give me the Steelers at home.
09:02And if it was the Ravens getting three and a half at home magically somehow in some world, I would still be taking it at that point.
09:08Oh, why don't we got a rematch that we just saw in week 16 and where Tampa, I believe, was a two and a half point favorite against Carolina.
09:17And it didn't work out for them there.
09:20But, I mean, he threw an interception at the end of the game, if I recall, there with Baker Mayfield.
09:26But he'll have a crack at him this time in Tampa.
09:30And they're going to need a little – they've got to win and get a little help Tampa if they're going to advance.
09:34But you've got to win this game first.
09:37They will be at home.
09:38What are we thinking we're going to get from Tampa and Carolina?
09:42I'm not expecting a whole ton of points.
09:44You guys were just ending out the previous segment talking about Bryce Young.
09:47It's like so many of these games this season, he's been absolutely terrible.
09:51Absolutely terrible.
09:52And he had this 400-yard performance against the Falcons.
09:56And everyone was looking at him in that following Monday night game against the San Francisco 49ers and saying, oh, he's going to go over 200.
10:03Look what he's done.
10:03The San Francisco 49ers have been terrible.
10:05And what does he do?
10:06He goes out there, he throws for fewer than 200 yards, and he throws three interceptions, if I remember correctly.
10:10At least two, definitely three almost.
10:12He's been terrible.
10:13How can we trust the Panthers' offense to move up and down the field and put up points?
10:17I can't do that.
10:18And also, Tampa Bay, they get to put the pieces together when they've been back fully healthy with Mike Evans there.
10:23Emeka Bugha's been dealing with injuries.
10:24They got Godwin back.
10:25They got Bucky Irving back.
10:26All these players back, and they get to put up points.
10:28I don't know how we're getting any offense in this game.
10:30So I think Tampa's the right side.
10:32I think that they're a better team.
10:33They have more talent when it's all said and done.
10:35But there's nothing that suggests that I want to lay the points.
10:38So give me Tampa if I had to choose, but realistically, under 43 and a half.
10:41Yeah, I'll tell you, because you look at the game, too, right?
10:44Like, this shouldn't even be a question.
10:45Like, this should be Tampa's game.
10:46I'm not saying the line should be six and a half or seven, but this should be a Tampa game.
10:50But also, you take a look at some of the ticket counts here.
10:52Only around 30% of the tickets are coming in on Tampa Bay.
10:54So the public also saying, two football teams don't really trust them, Tom.
10:58And like, you take a look at that Sunday night football game.
10:59Just give me the points, and I'll live with it, because the expectations are a lower-scoring,
11:03hard-fought game, sort of a playoff game as we enter into it.
11:06Now, the night game on Saturday night, this is fascinating, because the one thing we look
11:10at here, it's not a win and advance, loser goes home.
11:14The loser's still going to make the playoffs, but you want to talk about a gut punch, Tom.
11:17You win this game, you get the bye week.
11:19What a major advantage.
11:20You lose this game, it's going to be hard fought.
11:22You're probably going to get banged up, and then you're on the road next week in the playoffs
11:26here, Seattle and San Francisco, opening number, Tom, San Francisco the favorite.
11:31Today, no longer the favorite, minus one and a half for Seattle.
11:34Talk to me about this one.
11:35I really like San Francisco.
11:37I like the way they've been playing.
11:38The offense looks borderline unstoppable in these recent weeks.
11:42Granted, they played at Indy.
11:43They played the Bears.
11:44They are lackluster to middle-of-the-road defenses when it's all said and done.
11:49Going up against the Seattle defense is not the same thing.
11:51We have to take that into account, but the way Purdy and Shanahan have been, I don't want
11:56to say, calling plays.
11:56But moving the offense down the field with so many weapons looks so good.
12:00Now, Trent Williams, we're not sure if he's going to be playing.
12:02Ricky Pierce saw George Kittle.
12:04Now, granted, George Kittle didn't play last week, and they still put up a ton of points.
12:07Again, it was against the Bears.
12:09It wasn't against Seattle.
12:10But I like what San Francisco has at stake, to your point.
12:13They can be at home.
12:14They will win this game.
12:15They will then get the bye week.
12:16They will be at home again.
12:17They will be at home for over a month with zero travel, which is basically unheard of when it
12:21comes to the NFL.
12:22So I like the 49ers in this game, and frankly, I'm expecting some points.
12:26I know this is, like you said, it's an important game.
12:28It's not win or go home, but I'm expecting the offenses to move.
12:32Yeah.
12:34Which defense do you trust more here?
12:36Oh, come on.
12:37Because we're getting...
12:38I mean, this is 50 and a half.
12:40But, I mean, listen, you've got, like you said, you've got a prolific offense with the
12:4549ers.
12:46If they're on the field a lot, that helps the 49ers defense, because then you make Sam
12:51Darnold have to beat you, which I think is probably what they want to do, no?
12:56Right.
12:56So, obviously, Seattle's the better defense.
12:58Everyone will agree with that.
13:00The thing I've said about the 49ers and their team dynamic overall is I believe the 49ers
13:05can go out there and score 28 or 31 points every single week.
13:08Now, they may give up 24 along the way because their defense isn't great, but I believe the
13:1249ers defense is opportunistic.
13:15And as long as you have these elements of good coaching, the playoff pedigree that
13:19Shannon has brought, obviously, they haven't gotten over the hump and fully won yet, but
13:22that, plus a great offense, plus an opportunistic defense against a mistake-prone quarterback
13:27like Sam Darnold, that is a recipe to win.
13:30So, they don't have to be perfect on defense.
13:31Give up 20 points, that's fine.
13:33But one key turnover from Sam Darnold when he has to throw the ball, which we know he's
13:37going to make a mistake, that is fine for the 49ers.
13:40Any shockers this weekend, Tom?
13:42Like, do you think, like, the charge is going to go into Denver with Trey Lance and Paul
13:45for victory here?
13:46Because there are some options out here on these streets, man.
13:50Dak plays the whole game in order to secure the passing title.
13:54Most players in the league.
13:56And by the way, the Giants would love that because the Giants do not want to win this
13:59football game.
14:00Dallas, please play their starters, is what they're saying.
14:02Thanks, Tom.
14:03Talk to you soon.
14:03We'll be right back right here on The Early Line.
14:05Last game at a famous stadium for a fan base.
14:08Sometimes it works out in your favor.
14:10Sometimes the games are absolutely meaningless.
14:11And sometimes it's one of the worst days of your life.
14:15Now, if you are a Buffalo Bills fan, you probably had a lot of great times at the Ralph, as they
14:19like to call it.
14:19You know, back in the, it's changing the Highmark Stadium and all that.
14:22But it's known as the Ralph there to Buffalo.
14:24It's one of the last bastions of the NFL where you pull up and be like, this is an
14:27NFL stadium.
14:28It looks like a glorified Texas high school football field at this point.
14:31But it's our stadium, as you like to say.
14:34Now, when they're going to have this weekend, this game doesn't matter all that much in
14:36the standings.
14:37Buffalo versus the New York Jets, final game.
14:39But also, you can shovel out the Ralph here for $20 an hour and all the hot chocolate you
14:44want to get the stadium prepared for the game, Joe.
14:46But we bring back like old highlights.
14:49I was in my early 20s, and me being a huge Philadelphia Eagles fan.
14:53The final game at Veterans Stadium for the Philadelphia Eagles was the perfect storm
14:58of emotion, Joe.
14:59It was January of 2003.
15:01So it was the NFC Championship game for the 2002 season.
15:04Freezing cold temperatures.
15:06I bought tickets three weeks before that game even was going to be held or who was going
15:10to be against.
15:11And I think back in the day, like, it was 100 level all the way up to the 700 level at
15:15the vet.
15:15Bought tickets in the 700 level.
15:17And back then, Joe, it was like $290 for that game, like three weeks in advance.
15:21And I would have paid $1,000 back in 2002 to watch that game.
15:25Went there, started fantastic.
15:27And it turned into the single worst day I've ever had in my 48 years on this earth.
15:32So luckily, the Buffalo Bills fans who had a lot of heartbreak, Joe, I don't think they're
15:36going to get that type of heartbreak if they lose this game to the Jets here at the Ralph.
15:40No, I mean, they won't.
15:43And I still think they might be trending to get at least maybe a quarter or a half from
15:50Josh Allen in this one here.
15:52But I don't think anybody believes that, you know, Coach is going to come in here and just
15:57and rip everybody here.
15:59The Jets quarterback situation, everything about the Jets screams, yeah, we're just we're
16:04here because we're being paid to be here and we have to be here.
16:08And on the flip side, there is still a little something for Buffalo to play for it because,
16:13you know, they still open for the fifth seed, the sixth seed or the seventh seed.
16:17So seeding, I mean, I think most people want that fifth seed, don't they, Donnie?
16:22Because I'd much rather play either Baltimore or Pittsburgh than have to deal with Denver,
16:28Jacksonville or somebody else there.
16:30So there is still a little juice for Buffalo in this one.
16:33Like the Jets don't want to win.
16:35I don't think Buffalo cares all that much if they win, but there's a reason why that
16:38line opened up at 12 and a half now sits at seven.
16:40And I say still sits at seven because Josh Allen's not going to play this entire game.
16:44He's banged up.
16:45You need him.
16:45If he's not healthy for the playoffs, I don't care what your seeding is.
16:48And he does have one of those Ironman streaks.
16:50He'll make take a series in this game, but still the backups should be able to beat the
16:54New York Jets, which is why this line is hanging still around seven.
16:56And if you are the Jets, this is interesting.
16:58Like Brees Hall is a dynamic running back.
17:00They're not resigning him.
17:01So this is almost one of those things like, well, we'll let you play.
17:04And if you want 30 carries, go ahead and take it.
17:06Like if Brees Hall was like, just signed a three-year extension for like $45 million,
17:10he wouldn't see this game because he's too important next year.
17:12There's a lot of things up in the air, but the Buffalo Bills backups should be able to
17:17beat the Jets with the Jets not actually wanting to win this game.
17:20That's why Cook is starting here.
17:21So some interesting things to certainly lay out in this game, the Packers and the Vikings,
17:26Clayton Toon versus I think Max Brosmer, but JJ McCarthy is practicing in full this week.
17:33That's an interesting one, Joe.
17:34Seven and a half number.
17:36Green Bay will not play any starters.
17:37They cannot improve anything in their standings.
17:39Now understand this though.
17:40It's not a preseason game.
17:41We have 90 players on the roster.
17:43You only have about 52 players that you could use, but the most important players will not
17:47play.
17:48Minnesota should win, but also Joe, that's why that line went to four and a half to seven
17:51and a half.
17:52Yeah.
17:52And listen, I mean, we know McCarthy missed last week's game because of the right hand injury,
17:57but he practiced in full yesterday for the first time since that week 16 injury against
18:04the Giants.
18:05So there is no reason I think for him to be out there practicing, doing all these things
18:10that they planned on shutting them down.
18:12So I think McCarthy could very well see significant time in this game going up against a defense
18:19that is going to be filled with all sorts of backups.
18:23This could be, you know, end the season on a high note for Minnesota type of thing.
18:28Exactly.
18:29And by the way, they're not putting any stats or at least I should have say props just yet
18:32for Justin Jefferson.
18:32It's like 50 yards or so away from a thousand yards and you know, they probably would hook
18:36him up, but then it's pros like bros.
18:38Even if you told him, Hey, I need you to throw the football to JJ every single play.
18:41He still can't get the football out there.
18:43So if JJ plays, it'll feel like Joe Montana back there as opposed to Max Brosmer Philadelphia
18:47Eagles.
18:48They're going to rest up a lot of starters starting Tanner McKee at quarterback.
18:51He's pretty good.
18:52And by the way, the Eagles were favored by seven and a half points here.
18:55It's down to three and a half.
18:57I still think the Philadelphia Eagles can win this game with all backups against that Washington
19:01commander's roster.
19:02Yeah.
19:03And who's playing quarterback for Washington doing, I would still take Tanner McGee.
19:08Yeah.
19:08I mean, what it's like, John's like, okay, I'm still taking, I still think there's some
19:13value there for, uh, for Philadelphia to get it done, especially at home.
19:18Yeah.
19:19A lot of, I'm telling you, this is one of those weeks, which is crazy.
19:21In week 18, we've got more action for you coming up in hour.
19:24Number two, Joe Aneri, Donnie Wright said the early line on the sports grid network.
19:28Come on back.
19:29Predictive markets.
19:30We love to take a look at those, which includes NFL games.
19:33And by the way, if you think some of these things are wrapped up, MVP could be wrapped
19:36up, but padding those stats in week 18 could help you out.
19:39Same thing with coaches, Joe.
19:41As we take a look at the predictive markets analysis of the coach of the year winner right
19:46now, it sits as Mike Vrabel at a 42% chance, followed closely by Kyle Shanahan, who's a
19:5238% chance.
19:53Who's actually up 16% in the recent weeks here.
19:57Now understand what we're going to see in the final week of the season.
19:59Joe Vrabel sitting there with a chance to be the number one overall seed and maybe a layup
20:04game against the Miami Dolphins expectations.
20:06So they're going to win that.
20:07But if they do get the one seed, maybe get a bump, but we don't think the charge is going
20:10to actually knock off the Denver Broncos, but how about Kyle Shanahan?
20:13His team's been injured all year.
20:15New quarterbacks, new running backs, new wide receivers, new tight ends, new offensive line,
20:19new, you name it here.
20:20And still they're fighting for the top spot.
20:22If they win that game on Sunday, Joe, or excuse me, Saturday night, number one overall
20:27seed.
20:28I don't know where we go here with this one, Joe, because I want to say like the winner of
20:31that Seattle 49ers game gets that huge bump.
20:34Is it Shanahan?
20:35Is it Vrabel?
20:36Is it somebody else?
20:37Are we overthinking it here?
20:40To me, it's Sean Payton.
20:42I don't even know how it's close here.
20:44Like what?
20:44Everyone have shot the Denver Broncos having the number one seed this year with everyone
20:51who was like, oh, Bo Nix is game.
20:53He's not any good.
20:54I mean, I don't know what people thought the expectations were for the Denver Broncos,
20:58Donnie, but it wasn't one win away from the road to the Super Bowl coming through Denver.
21:04You know, I think a fantastic job by Sean Payton.
21:08I think the amount of success, not an easy, he's beaten every team he's supposed to beat
21:14and they've done it both on the road and, and heck, I'm still salty about the one game
21:20they lost there that they should have ended up winning.
21:24So I think Payton should be considered for coach of the year with what he's done, especially
21:30if they run the table and beat the Chargers and get the number one seed.
21:34Yeah.
21:34Because if it's again, it's a subjective award.
21:36So it's like, okay, maybe somebody's doing a straw poll at this point, but a lot still
21:40going to be decided.
21:40And you're like, Liam Cohen only at 8%.
21:42Man, Jacksonville's been fantastic.
21:44And let me tell you this, if there are some upsets and Jacksonville overtakes and moves
21:48up in the seedings, that could make a difference.
21:50Ben Johnson has a big game to secure the number two seed for the Chicago Bears.
21:55That's impressive as well.
21:56A lot of these coaches certainly deserving of that feature.
21:58But for me, it still feels like, I think if Kyle Shanahan and that 49ers team has a huge
22:03night, maybe he gets the bump at that point.
22:05Maybe if Rabel stumbles, he falls down.
22:07There's a lot of different options certainly that you can make here.
22:09How about the number one overall pick in the 2026 draft, which you're figuring after
22:14yesterday, it's like, well, let me see how this plays out yesterday.
22:17Mendoza, ultra efficient, fantastic quarterback.
22:21He sits at 70% has a chance.
22:23And quite frankly, I don't even know if it's that close anymore because he's just cementing
22:27it right now with this run for Indiana, Joe.
22:30He really is.
22:31I mean, that was a fantastic game against Alabama yesterday.
22:37And he's been doing that all year.
22:38It's why he's the Heisman winner.
22:40But the question is to me too, Donnie, is I think, yes, he'll be the first quarterback
22:45off the board.
22:47But who's taking him?
22:48Because I'm not sure the Raiders are taking him, if that's crazy enough to believe.
22:54I'm just saying.
22:55Who did the Raiders go?
22:55Reuben Hurricane Bain?
22:57Who are we going with that top spot if it is the Vegas Raiders?
22:59Yeah, I think they trade out of it and redo the team.
23:05Redo the team.
23:06Yep.
23:06The number one seed in both conferences in the NFL, both AFC and NFC, is up for grabs.
23:12And you say, oh, that's kind of interesting here.
23:13We're going to decide one of those on Saturday night between Seattle and San Francisco.
23:17The winner of that game, Joe, automatically gets that number one seed here.
23:20You go to Sunday.
23:21Hey, there are some teams in the driver's seat, and that includes the Denver Broncos.
23:25They are at home against the Los Angeles Chargers.
23:28The Chargers are already in the playoffs.
23:30The Chargers are telling you, hey, you know what?
23:32Can't really improve our seating all that much.
23:33Our quarterback's banged up.
23:34We're going to sit him and probably some other starters, which showed a line for Denver.
23:38Look ahead, Joe.
23:39At five and a half, there's now ballooned to 12 and a half across the marketplace here.
23:43Denver needs that victory for the number one seed.
23:46They'll give it their full effort.
23:47The Chargers, basically looking for a bye week here.
23:49How about that?
23:51Yeah, I mean, it's funny, too, because I think the Chargers can climb to the five seed
23:55in the AFC if they win and the Texans lose.
24:00So, but, you know, obviously with Herbert, and I get sitting Herbert here, how many other
24:07guy?
24:07I mean, most everyone else on that offensive line for the Chargers is a backup anyway,
24:12Donnie.
24:12So, I mean, who are you sitting?
24:14I do think this is a tricky spot here.
24:17It feels like Denver will handle business, but it also feels like Harbaugh is going to
24:23opt to make sure health is the bigger goal here than maybe actually getting that number
24:30five seed.
24:31Yeah.
24:31Like, nothing is for sure in the NFL, and we see that each and every week.
24:35But there is a little caveat on week 18.
24:37Like, let's just say, go back, like, oh, man, the Dallas Cowboys should kill Washington,
24:39and then Washington might be able to hang around.
24:41Like, we've seen that so many times, but they're actively telling that one side will
24:45not try, one side will try, and one side is really good, and away you go, where it's
24:49like, all right, but understand this, Joe.
24:51There's going to be a point in some of these games that we talk about, like, Chargers are
24:55up 13-7 at the half over the Broncos.
24:57Oh, my goodness.
24:58Everything's, like, that always happens in week 18, or you could get the Denver Broncos
25:02up 27-0 midway through the second quarter because the Chargers actively aren't playing
25:07in this game.
25:08Buyer beware, as we like to say.
25:10Let's keep moving down the list.
25:11Maybe the most important game also this weekend, this is going to be a night game in Pittsburgh
25:15between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
25:19A three-and-a-half-point favorite now as it sits for the Baltimore Ravens.
25:21Lamar Jackson coming back into the fall.
25:24Derek Henry has been running wild.
25:26It's a great game we're anticipating, but don't count the Steelers out.
25:30Usually when you do that at home as underdogs, they might rise to the occasion.
25:34Well, this has always been one of those spots, right, where Tomlin as a dog, especially
25:39at home.
25:40I mean, they always play better.
25:42This series has always been about it being within one score, right?
25:47Usually a field goal is ultimately what ends up getting it done.
25:52But I got to tell you, I'm looking at the weather report.
25:55It doesn't look great.
25:57Again, which is kind of what you would think, right?
26:01So I don't think we're going to get a ton of passing.
26:04We already know that Aaron Rodgers is going to be down as two top weapons, right?
26:10I don't know if Austin can even go with the hamstring.
26:13So it feels like the running game in the trenches is what this game is going to be all about.
26:18So it feels like another under spot for both of these teams and the Derrick Henry show.
26:25Yeah, and you're right about that, too, because Washington's his favorite tight end.
26:28He's not playing this game.
26:29He's actually on the IR.
26:30The Steelers think he'll have to go to the Super Bowl even to get that guy back.
26:33No DK Metcalf.
26:34So more of a plodding offense, which I'm telling you right now, Pittsburgh shouldn't be able
26:38to score a lot of points as is.
26:40We'll see if the Baltimore Ravens help them out by, hey, third and one, let's throw the football
26:45and we get an incomplete pass and punt it back to the Steelers, something certainly to watch
26:48out for because we've seen it happen in the past.
26:51But here's Aaron Rodgers talking about his future, possibly with Pittsburgh.
26:53You still kind of have that drive right now thinking about the what ifs and how much better
26:58things could be.
26:59Listen, I mean, I'm thinking about this week, but obviously I'm 42 years old and I'm on
27:05a one-year deal.
27:06So you know what the situation is.
27:08Whenever the season ends, I'll be a free agent.
27:10So that will give me a lot of options if I still want to play.
27:15I mean, a lot of options, but there'll be options, I would think, maybe one or two if
27:19I decide I still want to play.
27:20But I've enjoyed this experience and everybody in Pittsburgh has been fantastic to me on and
27:25off the field.
27:25And it's really what I was hoping for, for this experience was, it's been even better
27:32than I was hoping.
27:34Understand this, Joe.
27:36A lot of things change once the football games get played.
27:39The reason I bring that up is, yes, Aaron Rodgers probably wants to come back next year.
27:42Maybe physically he can.
27:43But if you are the Steelers and you had Aaron Rodgers with this horrendous division and you
27:49lose this game Sunday night, honestly, what's the point of bringing him back?
27:53For real, what is it?
27:57It's a great question, Donnie.
27:59And I didn't expect him to do this, if we're being completely honest.
28:02I never expected him to come back with Pittsburgh.
28:04But if you're Pittsburgh, again, you're just good enough where you're not getting a franchise
28:10quarterback in the draft.
28:12So what, you know, maybe just maybe another one-year deal to come back to Pittsburgh could
28:18be in the future for him.
28:20Outside of that, I don't know who else is going to be offering a 43-year-old Aaron Rodgers an
28:25opportunity.
28:26Yeah, it'll be interesting to see it play out, but a lot of stakes on the line on Sunday
28:30night as the Pittsburgh Steelers are a three-and-a-half-point underdog in a winner-take-all division
28:35championship, which you win.
28:36You move on to playing the playoffs next week, and you get a home game there.
28:40Let's flip it over now to the NFC.
28:41The Chicago Bears with a victory.
28:43It doesn't matter what else happens in the NFL.
28:45They'll secure the number two spot.
28:47They're only three-point favorites over the Detroit Lions because that's probably the one
28:50team.
28:50You don't want to play with nothing on the line because Detroit will play as if everything
28:54is on the line.
28:55Their defense stinks.
28:56They haven't played well, but they would love nothing less than to put up a fight here,
29:00Joe, and knock the Chicago Bears down some standings.
29:03Say, hey, Ben Johnson, that's going to give you a free victory because we loved you when
29:07you were here.
29:08Yeah, and what are they going to do?
29:10End the year on a three-game losing streak?
29:12You don't think Dan Campbell wants that either, do you?
29:15So I would imagine, again, not a ton if you're just happy to be there and you're Chicago,
29:23right?
29:23Although you're coming off a crazy loss there on Monday night against the 49ers.
29:28You know, nobody wants to limp into the playoffs on a losing streak, but at the same time, this
29:33just feels like push comes to shove.
29:36Detroit is going to leave it all out on the line here to beat the Bears.
29:40And here's Ben Johnson talking about if they can get a 4,000-yard passer in the Windy
29:46City.
29:46Ooh, man, you said you wanted to try to change the narrative around the quarterback here
29:50in Chicago.
29:50Is there any incentive to get Caleb that 4,000-yard passing mark that hasn't happened here?
29:56If it were to happen, that'd be great, but he would agree with me when I say our number
30:03one objective is to win this ballgame.
30:04And so whatever that takes, that's our goal.
30:10And, you know, we'll see where it's at at the end of the year.
30:14But that's a tertiary goal, if you will, you know.
30:18Here's a Caleb spike team.
30:20Do you appreciate what that might symbolize, though?
30:22I mean, you know, maybe not on the face of it, but just what it might mean.
30:27I think it's an arbitrary number.
30:29So, yeah, I don't, I don't, yeah, I don't know.
30:34I don't know.
30:34What would that mean?
30:36You tell me.
30:37The only franchise to never have a 4,000-yard passer.
30:40Okay.
30:41There are probably some that don't have a 5,000-yard passer either, right?
30:44So, I mean, it's just the number, so.
30:46You're new, but that's kind of a big deal here.
30:49Apparently it is.
30:50Now, understand this, because the point's being brought up, and he's counterpunching this.
30:57Okay, look, we're trying to win the football game, and we get it.
30:59But milestones mean a lot to quarterbacks, running backs, DBs, sack guys, even coaches at this point.
31:05Caleb Williams has listed, Joe, a 236-and-a-half as his passing prop.
31:09He needs 270 to get to that 4,000-yard marker.
31:14Now, if he can pass a little more, that's great.
31:15But this isn't one of those games where it's like, hey, it doesn't mean anything.
31:17Let's just get your numbers and get you in and out.
31:19So, you will have to get it in the flow of the football game.
31:22But do you put any extra stakes?
31:23Because they didn't put this number at 270 for Caleb.
31:25Like, hey, you know what?
31:26They break it, and that's what it's going to be.
31:28It's 236-and-a-half.
31:29I have a tendency to believe that, even though Ben Johnson is playing that off,
31:33that's still another checkmark and, you know, a notch on his belt.
31:36If he can get it, hey, look, I came to town one year.
31:38We already had a 4,000-yard passer.
31:40Is that a big deal for you betting-wise on a prop?
31:44No, it's not.
31:46Because, A, I don't like Caleb Williams to begin with.
31:48But, B, I will say this.
31:50I believe it's the last five games as a favorite, this being the Chicago Bears.
31:55Caleb Williams averaging about 246 yards a game when they're expected to win.
32:02Feels like they're expected to win this game if he gets at least that, Donnie, right?
32:06You got the record, no?
32:08Yeah.
32:09Cardinals and the Rams here.
32:10Not a lot to play for here for the Los Angeles Rams.
32:12By the way, they had everything at their feet, Joe, just a few short weeks ago.
32:15Now they're a wild card team and probably going to wind up playing the Philadelphia Eagles.
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