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00:00how about on turkey day joe final game of the night 8 20 p.m eastern joe is back i don't mean
00:05joe raniere that's joe burrow taking on lamar jackson touchdown spread here what's your spread
00:09line donnie look at what we saw originally before we knew anything about burrow ten and a half
00:15then we saw nine and a half and we saw you know all of a sudden nine eight and a half now seven
00:21and a half and like oh what are people thinking burrow is going to be doing here so i i don't
00:27know this the line continues to move towards joe burrow and the cincinnati bangles who won't have
00:33higgins they'll have chase back but i think this line tells you everything you need to know about
00:39the current state of the ravens donnie and i don't know that there's going to be buyback here i really
00:45don't i think what you see now is what you're going to get by kickoff no you're right about that i went
00:50back and watched that game again against the jets just the offensive side for the ravens this isn't
00:54your grandfather's ravens of three to four years ago as we like to say they are not that explosive
00:58team right now we'll see if that changes one other game will hit houston and indianapolis important
01:02game in the afc south joe four and a half point favorite for indy at home cj stroud coming back in
01:08a total of 44 and a half what's your spread line here well i mean listen this is a huge game for the
01:15afc south standings and who know that we were going to get it here i'll tell you this this is the first
01:20game for indy back home donnie since october 26th yeah they've been all over the world and the
01:26country and we know they're a pretty good team at home and we have seen nothing but colts money
01:32so far this week and i think that continues as we get closer to kick feeling an under in that game
01:39too for some reason joe defenses get clawing out there and away we go let's start the previews some
01:44of those thanksgiving day games people what we do on the grid we'll be right back let's get down to
01:48the business show there's three games tomorrow on thanksgiving day by the way before we get to
01:53the games itself we're going to start with the green bay detroit game the the advent of the third
01:57game that rotates i really like that but let me ask you this question for years and years and years i
02:02used to get so upset now the rules have changed across the nfl which while they're able to schedule
02:06games where dallas and detroit for 25 years always had the advantage of playing on thanksgiving at home
02:12you said well donnie what kind of advantage is that well they never would let them play that short week
02:17on the road so every year i would look on the schedule like does my team have a home thursday
02:21night game or are they playing on the road well dallas and detroit always had that home thursday
02:25night game but never had to play on a short week on the road on a thursday night that was their game
02:30there how do you feel about the tradition of detroit and dallas playing every single year same times
02:36there yeah and then they alternate like the packers or the chiefs and you know it's always been the
02:43same half a dozen teams the giants you know that it would always rotate it's become a tradition and
02:50these teams it's kind of baked into who these teams are right every year donnie they know exactly what's
02:56happening here there's no surprises and quite honestly if i'm you know like if i'm the 49ers or
03:03i'm uh you know the but i'm okay with that like i'm good like you guys have thanksgiving we're good
03:09we'll we'll play the traditional uh you know either a friday game or a sunday game i think it's more of
03:16a hassle than it is anything else for teams by the way also like the funny parts about growing up joe and
03:22i don't even mean you have to be like that old like you'd be like okay we're gonna travel during the
03:26detroit game because they're gonna get killed and then we'll all sit down and watch the dallas
03:29cowboys game and root against them and obviously me being from the northeast and turkey tasted better
03:34when the cowboys lose but it was always the detroit was the throwing game while you travel because
03:38detroit used to get hammered there was no reason to watch that game now detroit's good and we got a
03:42great game to start our day off tomorrow joe well there was one reason to watch detroit donnie there
03:47was only one reason back then to watch detroit and that was to watch barry sanders rip off at some
03:52point in a 30 point loss one of the most unbelievable runs where he just bulldozed and truck 12 people on
03:59his way to the end zone so that was the only reason to catch a detroit lions game growing up
04:04back in the day now we got a good one tomorrow joe two and a half point line opened up that price
04:09hasn't moved from that price and i quite agree i think it's the right number 48 and a half to 49
04:14and a half here love is going to take on golf a big big game and by the way a big nfc north weekend
04:19here forget about minnesota it's going to get wasted in seattle you got the bears going to philadelphia
04:23now you have this game detroit and green bay what are you thinking about this one
04:27well yeah i don't think this is getting back to three i think we we talked about that yesterday
04:32on the uh on the spread lines i think what you see is what you get i think you're also going to see
04:37a ton of teaser options here with a lot of folks using the packers uh getting them up to eight and a
04:45half uh but i'm i'm at a loss with both of these offenses donnie i don't know that i trust either i don't
04:53know that we can rely upon uh you know a couple of 12 touches and you know three 80 yard touchdowns
05:00from jameer gibbs which appears to be what the lions are are doing right now and the packers we've
05:06been saying it for how long now they lost tucker crapp and they lost their offense they have nobody
05:11who can stretch the field i'm i think this is going to be one of the lower scoring games i know
05:17everyone will look at detroit be like oh god i'm going to drop 40 points i didn't drop 40 points the
05:22first time they played and i doubt very much they're going to drop them here short week it's
05:27advantage detroit but i like the total more than i like the side here do you like the over joe like
05:33the under in this game i like the under i'm all about the unders on a thanksgiving here with these
05:38two defenses and suspect offenses there's no reason to think that either of these offenses donnie i think
05:44can flip a switch and all of a sudden everything's going to be great dan campbell's calling plays folks
05:49exactly and i just look at that packers defense which is so good it's going to be on turf michael
05:53parsons going to be supercharged jared goff can't move off the spot and it's just again feels like
05:58it's almond ross st brown in the passing game and jameer gibbs in the running game take one of those
06:02guys away the packers are going to struggle i'm not saying take them away just slow them down just
06:06a little bit i'm with you on that jameer gibbs touchdown prop minus 195 of course it is because
06:10if he scores if you look at detroit said they're going to get two touchdowns in this game you could
06:14probably factor one here's the interesting ones josh jacobs and emmanuel wilson at minus 140 apiece
06:19we just don't know if or when we're going to see josh jacobs in that football game so keep an eye
06:25on those practice reports which are basically done for the week for them they'll have one walk through
06:29today but tomorrow if jacobs is down wilson's are probably good look again he got a lot of
06:33carries last week but then could muddy the back foot of both of those guys play should be a fun game
06:38tomorrow to watch it play out but i gotta tell you that two and a half joe sitting right there
06:42and i'm saying man i'm on that fence line like it's hard to win on a thursday in the road in a
06:46tough game if i had to pick free bet i'm probably taking the packers joe i am it's so funny donny
06:52because last year was the first thanksgiving day win for detroit since 2016 and now all of a sudden
06:59we're gonna make it two in a row uh i it should be a fun one let's go to chiefs and cowboys next
07:08mahomes on the road can he get it done this week we'll find out game number two on thanksgiving day
07:134 30 p.m kickoff it's the kansas city chiefs and the dallas cowboys this game was set up to be dead
07:18on arrival on sunday midway through those games the philadelphia eagles had a 21 to nothing lead
07:23over dallas and it looked like the indianapolis colts in the second half with a double digit lead
07:26over the chiefs we're gonna walk away victors and left with this game as ah yeah we'll watch because
07:31it's thanksgiving but not a lot of meaning that's not the case anymore dallas back into the playoff
07:35picture at least has a heartbeat and you take a look at kansas city off of the carpet as well
07:39this line joe looked opened up as a look ahead at four and a half as a favorite towards the chiefs
07:44we now see three and a half and threes in the marketplace and the total that has climbed up
07:49from the high 40s into the 52 and a half range depending once again which book you're looking at
07:53here kansas city and dallas on thanksgiving it's an interesting one for me because as you set it up
07:58like you can never really kill kansas city it feels like you know andy reid patchable homes you
08:02always have a chance defense with spagnoli we get it they're not as explosive as before they are
08:07getting isaiah pacheco in this game and last week kareem hunt they actually gave the football to
08:1030 times and worked out in their favor good win over the colts but i'd look at the dallas cowboys
08:15team and say yes they made some trades at the deadline queen and williams is a big deal on that
08:19defensive line i get it but that secondary is still suspect the philadelphia eagles are in a funk on
08:24offense right now they just were a rudderless ship for three quarters in that game i don't think
08:29kansas city is going to be that way so let me start here joe that dallas defense how does it hold
08:33up against kansas city or no you're buying back in on dallas who went up against the lowly raiders and
08:39look good and then the eagles had a miraculous comeback because the eagles just bottom fell out
08:43in the second half how are we approaching this game from a dallas perspective well it's interesting
08:48here because the market believes dallas off that win against philadelphia at home with this new
08:56look defense may be a little bit undervalued in this spot and i would tend to agree with him if
09:01this game was on oh i don't know donnie sunday but it's on a short week and history tells us the
09:08chiefs not just the chiefs but when we get these thursday games at this point in the season right week
09:1511 donnie this isn't week four this week and five right this is after week 11 here we are week 13
09:21there is a reason why the chiefs are a road favorite because road favorites on thanksgiving
09:28donnie 25 and one straight up 20 and six against the number since 2004 and it makes sense that's a
09:36trend that makes sense to me donnie because again we're past the point of oh it's just it's variance
09:41we don't know what the team really we know what these teams are the books know what these teams are
09:46now here heading into week 13 and for the chiefs to be a field goal or more favorite they are a field
09:53goal or more favorite on thanksgiving for a reason it's the only thing keeping me off backing dallas
10:00is because i that trend makes a lot of sense to me given where we are in the season and given the fact
10:06that you can have a great defense now but mahomes is still you still got to stop mahomes and that
10:12offense and i have my questions taking a look here ari miroff had a tweet yesterday says he's
10:18confident saying the cowboys get cowboys in the chiefs game on thank the most watched regular
10:23season game in nfl history now understand this nielsen did change the ratings this year so
10:30everything is up so maybe he's just going to get a boost because the ratings sort of are tipped on the
10:34scales this year but we'll find out everybody loves that four o'clock game but it does add intrigue
10:39because last week this game again would have been dead on arrival now you have a little bit extra
10:43juice here do you believe joe that this game is going to be the most watched thanksgiving game in
10:47history well i believe nielsen wants it to be so since they're the only actual company that can
10:54actually measure this then yeah whatever they say i'm with it ari i'm with you i'm sure they will make
11:00this the highest watch game and it makes sense right it's the middle game uh it should be competitive
11:06it's telling you even though you got a road favorite here unlike the other two games uh but
11:11yeah i could see this being the part of the day where everybody just kicked bats the most eyeballs
11:17uh it's uh it's gonna be fun and listen the only thing we can hope for is we have been through some
11:23thanksgivings donny we're not exactly the most competitive games um i still remember where i was
11:29when the butt fumble happened it was awful ruined my thanksgiving so let's just hope we have quality
11:35games here across the board yeah maybe let's get a little snow and leon leck and uh show up and
11:40knock a fumble around and give the dolphins the victory here those were some great days the randy
11:44moss incredible performances we've had some legendary thanksgiving performances here maybe we get one
11:49out of the two quarterbacks joe dac prescott 252 and a half as his prop patchable homes 267 and a half
11:55live as his prop touchdown props to throw dac prescott over one and a half minus 132 look at my homes
12:00they ain't letting you get that one and a half it's over two and a half at a plus 154 price point
12:04if you look at the total in that game i gotta tell you i'm still leaning towards the under in this game
12:09too joe i'm with you i i agree with that but i also think both of these guys are going to have some
12:16success throwing the ball here uh in this matchup it would not shock me at all i think the big question
12:23is who wins this time is going to be who can actually run the ball uh better and you mentioned that
12:28it's kind of been tough for uh for kansas city to do it it's not going to be easy with this new front
12:34that uh the cowboys have but i think it's all going to come down to who can control the line of
12:39scrimmage and you know dallas might have the edge there with their running game and williams
12:43he looks like guyton's going to be down for this game you take a look at the practice reports here for
12:48kansas city the one thing i was looking there for is uh taylor juwan taylor had full practices so he's
12:54probably going to go which i don't know if that's even a good thing out of like pro football focus he's like
12:57the 79th rated tackle to 83 tackles so i don't know how much the big of a difference that's going
13:02to be but cd lamb and george pickens a great one-two combo also joe cd lamb's dropping a lot of
13:07passes as of late do we get a big drop out of cd lamb on thanksgiving day better not because they're
13:12going to need him uh i mean that's a hell of a one-two punch donny when you know you got those two guys
13:18you know pick your poison you can't double one and leave the other in single coverage of man on man
13:23so it's going to be interesting what spags does here but listen dallas i think he's got a little
13:28confidence right now and it feels like you know kansas city's that's one to dog i think both those
13:34guys are absolutely worth a anytime touchdown uh bet there because i think one if not both will find
13:41pay dirt ah you know i love the double up joe we're just looking at fans right now plus 135 plus 155
13:46good chance they both score but you know if there's a touchdown or two being thrown by dallas
13:49one of those guys is catching it unless ferguson snags when they're at a plus 220 price the night
13:55cap on thanksgiving that's cincinnati taking on baltimore that line is a touchdown favorite for
14:00baltimore at home 51 and a half as a total once again baltimore on the injury report it's lamar
14:06jackson practiced in full yesterday he's clearly not the quarterback running wise that he was just a few
14:11short years ago that has a lot to do with every single leg bone slash hamstring slash soft tissue
14:17muscle you can have in your leg that's been injured for lamar but they are a touchdown favorite
14:22in this game you're not gonna have t higgins in this game jamar chase is coming back i like the
14:26points here with cincinnati and i don't know what i'm getting out of joe burrow but that's not even
14:30a handicap joe it's what i'm actually getting out of that baltimore offense watching it joe it just
14:34seems like derrick henry's lost a little bit of a step and again he ran a lot on sunday quick work
14:39week here how healthy or how fresh is he going to be it seems like it's a flowers or nothing on that
14:44offense on the outside i think this is the perfect live betting game donnie uh and let's hope that
14:51burrow comes out they script them up him and jamar chase and all of a sudden it's seven nothing
14:56cincinnati before you blink an eye and then that's when i'll be looking to get in on baltimore the market
15:02is telling you uh and it you know think about it it's not like flacco wasn't averaging 28 points a game
15:09for cincinnati points have never been a problem here it's always been the defense but what does
15:15it say when okay you bring in joe burrow he's not going to drop 40 points in a game so we don't even
15:20know how rusty he's going to be and yet the market is moving three points donnie i mean that's all
15:26about what the market thinks of baltimore i think it has very little to do with the situation with
15:31cincinnati they will get the points but can they stop baltimore enough to actually win this game
15:37yeah not a great jets team last week that baltimore played and that score was 23 to 10 at the end but
15:43also understand this they slept walked through a lot of that football game and also a monster fumble
15:48inside the five yard line by breeze hall that could have changed the entire complexion of game and maybe
15:52gave the jets a victory here i think sometimes you look at these lines like yeah baltimore should be
15:56able to handle the business cincinnati is bad that defense is bad i'm telling you right now that normal
16:00baltimore offense would put 40 on cincinnati that's not the offense that we've been seeing over the past
16:05couple weeks in this spot here but some fun to take a look at here the touchdown prop market show
16:09derrick henry minus 230 jamar chase minus 120 everybody else manageable out there any looks there
16:15andrews for me always in these kinds of games in these spots and by the way baltimore has a distinct
16:22coaching advantage here ah distinct coaching advantages there let's take a look also at some
16:28football action on a black friday philadelphia eagles and the chicago bears both teams eight and
16:34three turkey day what it means to play on thanksgiving a lot of people play on thanksgiving
16:40you don't have to be in high school or college or professional school to actually do that most people
16:45get out there in the front yard or the backyard throw it around for a little bit come in and eat
16:48some turkey and have a day of it here's joe burrow talking about a little thanksgiving day action
16:53always liked one to play on the set i think just like a lot of kids you you grow up going through
17:01thanksgiving you have your meals with your family and then you go and sit on the couch and typically
17:06there's not a lot on except football back in the day it was lions and somebody you go watch matthew
17:15stafford throw for 300 400 some yards with calvin johnson and probably lose the game
17:23but it was fun to watch um you know those are memories that you have and so i kind of always
17:29wanted to be the person out there i like joe burrow he's quirky as hell remember joe when he got you
17:36know he got his house robbed there and he wasn't pissed that they took anything but that the public
17:40found out who his girlfriend was man he's an interesting dude he is was that a hair clip like what
17:47what what was he what was he wearing like what what is i don't know i mean burrow is he's a trippy
17:54dude man i yeah what is that exactly not is that a rubber band is that like uh is he serving school
18:01lunch what are we doing here burrow my goodness i think that's just the cincinnati bangles saying
18:07they didn't want to pay for a headband they just give you that because there's no tourists
18:10being cheap all over the place you know what i mean like and by the way he is such a terrible
18:13dresser as well but a quirky dude that can play football and absolutely ball out so he's certainly
18:18a fun watch but just talking about thanksgiving and he's right about that again the travel game
18:22was detroit turn on your tv it's going to be entertaining detroit's going to get their butt
18:26handed to him and then you move on to the dallas cowboys game now tradition in the nfl has begun
18:31again joe the amazon prime friday black friday football game it's going to take place in philadelphia
18:37who the eagles had a massive collapse the bears beat the pittsburgh steelers if the season ended
18:43today the bears would actually win their division here and not the green bay packers or the detroit
18:47lions the eagles sit at eight and three they're going to win the division but now you want to
18:51make sure you get back on track and i got to tell you if you're setting a line right now that is asking
18:56the public just to take the chicago bears you got that line people it's plus seven the total is 44
19:02and a half and i always say this moniker that line is there for a reason they didn't pick that out
19:07of a hat you might see that and be like that's crazy the eagles can't score on offense the bears are
19:12red hot buy your beware joe or should they beware uh well listen they're eight and three the chicago
19:21bears right nope all you can do is win the games in front of you right but when you dive just a
19:27little deeper here donnie they're eight and three with a negative three point differential and that
19:33is because they lead the league in turnover margin here what at plus 15 uh plus 16 donnie
19:40we all know that yes while all you can do is win the games on your schedule at some point that is
19:47unsustainable you can't be you can't keep winning games with a negative point differential it's going
19:53to come back and bite you and this could very well be the spot that it comes back and bites them donnie
20:00because if they don't get three turnovers ah there's a good chance they might be uh they might
20:06be struggling to put points on the board in this game now the games that the eagles have struggled
20:12they did struggle in dallas they look really good in the first half like wow look at that 21 points
20:15for the foot of the eagles when ice cold couldn't run to save their life in the second half every time
20:20they got a play got called back on a penalty but let's go back to previous two weeks you had really
20:24good competition that you played you beat the packers and you beat the lions no thanks to the
20:28offense it was all the defense but what was the sort of the you know commonality let's just say between
20:34those games you played in green bay that was a cold night there okay you played at home against
20:39detroit a cold blustery night i'm looking at midday on friday here in philadelphia you say okay look at
20:44that 42 degrees at kickoff that's not too bad joe sustained winds at least 15 miles an hour or
20:50higher windy conditions who does that benefit like i like the bears could run the football the eagles
20:57can't run it i'm not saying the eagle's gonna lose this football game they're favored by seven
21:01they're supposed to win but how am i supposed to grade my philadelphia eagles by going they throw
21:05it to two people it's aj brown it's davante smith they run it with one person in the backfield and
21:11that is saquon barkley because for some reason jalen hurts doesn't run the one to run the football
21:14anymore how is the attack point on the eagles offense going to fare against the chicago bears are
21:20we throwing it in windy temperatures are we finding a running game out here i'm perplexed by this
21:24handicap on friday yeah i it listened and that's why i would avoid the side and concentrate on the
21:32total donnie because if it's the one thing we know about the eagles is that if they're if they're still
21:38going to struggle and i think there will be parts of this game where they struggle to move the ball
21:43however i do think the defense of philadelphia at home uh i believe caleb williams is due for one of
21:50those games donnie where it's not going to work out all that well for them i don't see a ton of
21:55points in this game i think the total or the team totals are much more uh have more value than trying
22:02to figure out whether or not they can cover the seven points uh that's where i would look because
22:06i don't see a ton of offense in this game yeah i i almost look more to the rushing props here joe and
22:13take a look at those rushing props not from an eagles perspective saquon barkley 76 and a half
22:17again they're begging you to take the under on that does he have a breakout performance
22:20after what we saw the past couple weeks i don't know but windy conditions you're probably going
22:24to hand him the football joe 15 to 20 times in this game he should get 76 but understand this
22:30caleb williams is listed at 20 and a half rushing yards if it's cooler temperatures the kids athletic
22:35against a good pass rush he should be able to get outside the pocket his last five games joe with
22:40rushing 24 yards 53 yards 63 yards 26 yards and 21 yards his rushing prop once again this game joe
22:4820 and a half i think the kid's going to run a little bit and i'd say he gets around 25 plus
22:52yards in this one i i agree i think that's a great way uh to look at it i think that's good i would
22:59also keep an eye uh on colston loveland uh because they apparently have figured out they actually drafted
23:05him donnie oh wow season has gone on yeah can you believe it they actually have decided uh to throw
23:11the ball his way and i think maybe that's a way you can attack uh that defense too behind them
23:17linebackers they're going to be aggressive i think that's going to be his out i think he could be
23:22poised to have a big game as well joe we just talked about the dallas cowboys they throw a touchdown
23:26pass you know probably who it's going to i love this every week and it usually cashes a.j brown plus
23:32155 devonta smith plus 180 if you get one touchdown pass you split them there joe that's good money out
23:38there i'm with you uh donnie i i agree i think swift is is you know it's either cash it or bust it
23:45but you know who's getting the attempts for philadelphia all those cow sheet markets before
23:51thanksgiving you know maybe you can i've got to check the cow sheet markets here like what gets
23:55consumed more beer jack daniels what gets consumed more 500 million pounds of turkey or 500 million
24:01pounds of stuffing here those are some fun markets to take a look at here for thanksgiving but
24:06we're talking the pro football championship game which teams you think will be in it i'm surprised
24:10by this joe we go to cow sheet do you know the seven percent chance leader in the clubhouse right
24:15now are the buffalo bills who might not even win the division to take on the philadelphia eagles
24:20followed by kansas city and los angeles followed by new england and philadelphia man buffalo and philly
24:27to get into a super bowl here i don't know if i'll put my money down on that jaw i don't know
24:31it's still a little too early for my taste here uh but i guess if you're looking at that donnie right
24:38if both continue to win games here down the stretch you know you go from seven percent to all of a
24:44sudden what fourteen fifteen percent you might be able to double up here by the time we get to mid
24:49december let's go to more markets here buffalo there we go you know what at the top of it i should
24:56hit down i don't know why it had that it's kansas city and detroit which is showing nine percent now
25:01denver and los angeles these markets are crazy like if you had to pick right now like who's going to
25:07get there i probably would have the rams included and then who would it be out of the afc though
25:11that's a tough one like i think the rams if they hold home field advantage will get there
25:16i don't know about the afc it's tough i mean but it wouldn't shock me i think the market would
25:22probably lean denver i think they would be in for the uh in a conversation there but ultimately
25:28experience matters this time of year and who's got more of it than buffalo and kansas city
25:33yeah let's get to the pro football passing touchdown leaders similar to like the heisman
25:39trophy who's going to get all the shine there matthew stafford an 88 chance to lead as the touchdowns
25:44leader now granted it says pro football passing touchdowns not just touchdowns itself dak prescott
25:49followed by justin herbert i think stafford's on that path and you know i always like and we're
25:54going to get into this conversation next with the heisman sometimes look at sean mcvay and say you
25:58know what man i'm going to get you there in style we got the football in the two yard line am i giving
26:02this to kyron am i just going to throw that quick out the davante adams which works every single time
26:06like there is the truth to that hey coach we all know i'm leading in touchdown passes that would be
26:11cool if i did it here coach gonna help him i think it is matthew stafford at that heavy price
26:15oh i absolutely i think it is and they'll he'll make sure that stafford gets his opportunities
26:22and his chances and and quite he's got the best weapons right he's got the best opportunity to do
26:28it donnie and i don't think they slow that down anytime soon heading into this one again a lot
26:33they're only a few years removed right from holding up the trophy it's not like they haven't been here
26:39and done this before action this week on the gridiron we're going to start with houston and
26:43indianapolis a big game in the afc south which is going to see the favorite here indianapolis at
26:48home for the first time in a long time here but they're going to take on houston the question is
26:53what are we going to get out of cj stratt is going to be coming back from a concussion davis mills
26:58wasn't stupendous but davis mills was a winning quarterback here the total is 44 and a half down
27:03from 46 and a half as a look ahead are we getting indianapolis did they bounce back after that tough
27:08lost to kansas city and say you know what this is still our division we're going to wrap this up
27:13or does houston show up with that filthy defense that has been known to play really really good
27:20football home or away what gives in this game joe that four and a half seems about right here
27:23yeah and it was three and a half and then uh a lot of early money on the colts came in and it's kind
27:31of no man's land here as far as the books are concerned right four and a half maybe gets the five
27:37back down to four either way you're not going to be anywhere near a key number here of three or
27:42seven so you've got to ask yourself you've got uh who would have thunk it a month ago right that
27:48the afc south we'd get to this point done in the colts uh would be chased uh down by maybe
27:55jacksonville and houston here but that's the reality the texans three straight wins two of them
28:01though without cj stroud uh and i don't know i i think the colts having not played a game at home
28:08since october 26th in which they smashed tennessee this is a different team at home on the turf in a
28:17dome i like their chances here especially with the uh with the new defense now has a couple of games
28:23they got healthier i think buckner will be back for this game i i just there's not enough offense for
28:29the texans to me to warrant uh thinking that they can uh not only win this game but i don't think
28:35they can cover this game because i don't think stiken and company will take their foot off the gas
28:39i think they'll go for the kill here and i'll lay it with uh with the colts yeah eight and three colts
28:45seven and four jaguars six and five texans so you can throw a little wrench into that afc south you
28:49get a victory here from the texans which would bump them to seven and five and knock down the colts
28:53to eight and four should be a fun finish but you see the price point so the colts they are the best team
28:57in this division at minus 220 followed by the jaguars and the texans here now let's get down
29:02to some fun in this one joe and i don't know how many points are going to be scored so before i tell
29:05you about the game which you probably know where we're going 40 degrees at kickoff precipitation not
29:11really in the forecast sustained winds at 20 miles an hour or higher we're talking about the san
29:17francisco 49ers and the cleveland browns opening line minus seven for the for the san francisco 49ers
29:24that's down at some outlets to four and a half 42 and a half as a total joe that's down in the
29:29mid 30s here now showing up at 36 and a half as we just had another line move just a few moments ago
29:35i look at that 36 and a half and i still think joe right off the bat that's an under
29:40yeah i and i agree with you and i and i don't think uh shador is uh is going to have nearly as much
29:48success uh that people think he had in that game against the raiders which it was all miles
29:54garrett uh for cleveland at that point but i do think i i think brock purdy and company had a
30:00terrible game there at least early brock purdy did but you can tell what those healthy weapons of
30:06kittle and ricky pierce all and company have you know and you got christian mccaffrey far too many
30:12offensive weapons and much like we said last week the browns were up 14 nothing in the first quarter
30:18about it we were like that's over the raiders are never coming back 49ers play from in front in this
30:23game cleveland's not coming back offensively it's just not going to happen it feels like how many
30:29more touches can we squeeze in there for christian mccaffrey feels like he's their entire offense if
30:33we look at some of the passing props numbers joe 156 and a half for shador brock purdy at 213 and a half
30:38answer me this carolina's defense isn't even in comparison to what cleveland's defense is that pass rush
30:44devastating good defensive backfield that's not really the case for carolina we saw brock purdy
30:49in that first time okay let's you throw and shannon's like you gotta be kidding me through
30:51three interceptions we're throwing dink and dunks in the second half and handing the football off
30:55what do you think that game plan in the heavy winds because brock purdy doesn't have the greatest arm here
31:00under 213 and a half like does that seem doable here for purdy like he won't even throw for 200 yards in
31:05this well i i think a you get the ball out of your hands quickly uh because we know who's on the
31:12other side waiting for him there and i think shanahan will scheme it so they will be running away
31:18from and they will be not giving miles garrett a chance to absolutely blow up the game plan so i think
31:24it's going to be a lot of uh ricky pierce all a lot of george kittle a lot of uh christian mccaffrey
31:30out of the backfield i think it's going to be short quick screens passes pick those types of things
31:35and move the ball that way and keep miles garrett out of uh out of purdy's face yeah it's one and
31:43also how about this joe answer me this question christian mccaffrey we see now on a week-to-week
31:47basis minus 275s or higher he's minus 125 this weekend for a touchdown joe somebody's got a score
31:55is that now some value for you in the marketplace well that's interesting right because listen he not
32:02only from a handle you know running backwards but from a catching perspective the guy is you know
32:07there's only more weapons now for san francisco means that that back end of the browns defense
32:14could be in for a uh could be in for a test here i like him at that price donnie i think anytime you
32:20can get him in that area i think there's value there on him finding pay dirt los angeles rams
32:27carolina panthers we saw carolina play going up against the 49ers didn't look all that good on
32:31offense or defense all san francisco did was slow that game down but now you take a look at carolina
32:36the back end is damaged horn who played on monday night football had two interceptions throwing up
32:42on the sidelines because he had a concussion and tried to gut it out he couldn't this is short week
32:46i severely doubt that horn's going to be available this weekend we just talked about at the top of
32:50the hour here of oh yeah another safety trevor mooring he's going to be down this weekend on
32:55suspension your slot cornerback got hurt last weekend and will not be playing in this game
33:00three starters in the secondary down that crew man what do we play this we could hopefully say
33:04cleveland right or maybe the raiders no you're getting the rams and puka nakua you're getting
33:08the rams and davante adams you're getting the rams and matthew stafford in this game with your
33:13secondary out they will attack joe with this line for a road game 10 and a half for the raiders and
33:1945 and a half as a total here what gives in this one because this is setting up to be matthew stafford
33:24do whatever you want in this football game yeah i agree and then maybe the best way to look here is
33:30either look to fade the carolina team total or back the rams team total here because one of these
33:37teams will score and score at will and the other team will likely struggle to find pay dirtier because
33:44i don't see the rams defense uh if carolina had a hard time with the 49er defense they're gonna have
33:50a really hard time with this rams defense in this in uh in this game yeah championship odds here for
33:57the nfc and again it should be the rams as the favorite they're at a plus 210 price they now hold
34:01home field advantage even with the loss to the eagles that lost last week to the cowboys so a lot
34:05of football left to play and will be determined followed by the eagles seahawks lions packers and
34:0949ers a lot up for grabs with the rams to me right now joe they seem like the class of the nfc the
34:13way they're playing well they are i mean let's face it they are uh exactly what we thought they
34:20could be uh with a healthy stafford and boy oh boy all those young guys on that defensive side
34:26in the secondary they're all starting to come together we knew donnie last year you knew as
34:32an eagles fan watching that playoff game you knew that boy this team this team could be dangerous
34:37with all these young guys here and well they've gotten better from a year ago with more experience
34:43and it is starting to show for sure look at the nfl mvp odds as well matthew stafford is the odds
34:49on favorite now at a minus 220 price drake may at plus 220 we talk about this all the time we just
34:55talked about in the calcium market joe when you say you want to line up and your coach your team
34:59understands that i've never won an mvp this is my chance are we handing the football off at the
35:05two-yard line i know as a coach you're not supposed to think that way but we are human beings i can throw
35:10a quick out to devontae get a quick touchdown pass or hand this off matthew stafford has been good for
35:14this organization great for football he's a hall of famer he does not have an mvp he's the favorite
35:19you're not running in three touchdowns this weekend joe you're running it up in the passing game no
35:24i agree that's exactly what you're likely doing up and over donnie they will keep giving him
35:31opportunities because the matchups call for it as well donnie the wide receiver matchups here call for
35:37it by the way the best in the price point here one and a half you ain't getting that with matthew
35:40stafford's like minus 250 for a touchdown passes to throw for three the best number right now i
35:44found it bet 365 that is a plus 180 price there but still three touchdowns hard to get
35:50when i just told you three members of that secondary will be missing in this game against
35:55a hot matthew stafford and dominant wideouts
35:57time there for that carolina secondary more nfl talk on the way next as we prep you for
36:03thanksgiving weekend jacksonville legitimate chance to make the playoffs here in the afc they're
36:08going to take on the lowly tennessee titans this weekend who actually had a decent little
36:12comeback and showed some life going up against a double digit favorite last week in the seattle
36:16seahawks now granted they lost that game they have no chance to win it they just put on a couple
36:20fluff points at the end but they're getting a touchdown or so at home this weekend against
36:24jacksonville a total of 41 and a half could we have the titans sneak inside that number because i'll
36:31tell you one thing titans ain't winning this game titans ain't winning again this year why should
36:35they well they they better not but you know this is another one of these games donnie where where
36:41is the offense coming from we we know uh that you know he's not going to have any problem throwing
36:48interceptions uh we know that uh from trevor lawrence uh he will at some point throw the ball to the
36:54tennessee defense now whether they catch it or not is a whole different ball game here but it listen
36:59it's a big game they keep getting by by a good running game uh and despite of trevor lawrence's
37:07issues here with turning the ball over they've been able to get away with some this is a division
37:13rivalry these two always seem to have these crazy games no way am i looking at it over here donnie
37:19though we we've seen both these offenses look inept uh i do like the tennessee defense more and
37:25obviously we like their offense so i'd be all about an under in a divisional game like this
37:30i was gonna kick out of the red zone with tennessee joe like you know they show like usually big plays
37:35like okay let's cut to the tennessee game and tennessee's on offense and it's like 50 a sack by cam
37:41ward 30 you know a good play by cam ward and still leaves like 20 like like this it's it's never good
37:48it seems like at that point here for the titans we'll see if they're competitive but again being
37:52competitive and winning football games two different things we'll see if they can do that
37:55arizona on the road to take on tampa bay tampa bay listed tbd a quarterback now we'll get those
38:00first practice reports out today but baker mayfield's in a sling last week so if he does play i don't
38:06think we're having an aerial attack by tampa bay but they are supposed to get back bucky irving which
38:10means they'd have three quality running backs in the backfield maybe more of a running game
38:14they're favored by three this weekend over arizona and a total joe at 44 and a half
38:19yeah i think this is a little home cooking gonna do tampa well i mean it was a rough stretch donnie
38:25i mean two weeks ago they had to fly to orchard park in crazy uh conditions there to take on josh
38:31allen and company then they had to come home then they had to fly out west to get destroyed by the
38:36rams but i you know now that they're back home arizona coming your town obviously arizona is looking
38:43for ways to lose games uh and i think they will lose this game i know they get quite matters
38:48uh who the quarterback is for tampa in this one i think uh i think they'll get back on track
38:54and get the easy win here against arizona buffalo pittsburgh i'm feeling a mike tomlin underdog
39:00special in this one they're getting three and a half points from the bills in a total of 47 and a
39:04half aaron rogers who's probably furious he couldn't play last week and by the way you know
39:08the steelers lost that game but it wasn't because the offense had 28 points on the board which included
39:13a defensive touchdown but now we're probably getting rogers back says he could probably compete a
39:17little bit better with that broken wrist i don't know but you know what i think i might take a
39:21tomlin special getting a three and a half this weekend yeah and while we keep waiting for that
39:27tomlin special getting points actually deliver in any way shape or form here uh but i mean listen
39:33the story to me is whether aaron rogers plays or not it's just how bad that bills team looked on
39:39thursday night and the question is can they get back on track here they've done a pretty good job
39:46over the years obviously with josh allen maybe a little extra time here is exactly what they need
39:52uh would it shock me uh if the bills put up one of these big performances no but tomlin at home
39:58getting points has been pretty profitable over the years so if it ain't broke i guess let's not fix it
40:04how about this game joe minnesota and seattle this is a very interesting one to me that look ahead line
40:10was seven and a half we're up to 11 and a half in the marketplace and a total of 41 and a half which
40:14is down from 43 and a half like we expected mccarthy to be the starter but now it's running wild
40:19but sometimes you have to piecemeal things together joe and i love you take the same
40:22opinion like cincinnati hey burrow's back and you go well their offense look decent without joe burrow
40:27like yes he's probably somewhat of an upgrade but it's not as if it's night and day mccarthy has been
40:32so poor this year that you're putting in max brosmer which i look at that now and say well i don't want
40:38like a rookie guy getting his first start on the road at seattle that's terrible but to be honest
40:42joe you're not even getting a downgraded quarterback in this spot and maybe an extra four points
40:47yeah i mean listen you don't think this is going to be a sam donald revenge kind of game here you
40:54don't think he's going to want to go out there and light this team up the problem is who knows sam
40:59donald better than the vikings uh in this spot but the bottom line to me is where are the points coming
41:04for the vikings uh and don't be fooled by that score against tennessee by the way i mean seattle was up 20
41:10points heading into the fourth quarter and then they had that you know empty netter to make it and
41:15get the cover and make it look like tennessee was competitive they were never competitive that game
41:19was over for it started uh the vikings defense will keep this close early donnie but ultimately i think
41:25the seahawks pull away in the second half so if i was looking at anything i'd probably look at the
41:31first half under and then look for uh seattle in game take a look at las vegas and los angeles that's
41:38the chargers a double digit favorite here for the chargers you take a look at that total 41 and a
41:43half vegas did fire their offensive coordinator chip kelly which i always get interested in because
41:47the new offensive coordinator comes in and their approach is never let's slow the game down let's
41:53run the football and see what we can do this is like this is my big chance to actually get a job in
41:57the nfl as an offensive coordinator i'm going to show you what i can do i actually like the total in
42:01this game joe over the 41 and a half the one thing we do know is the raiders are horrendous on defense
42:07unless max crosby wrecks the entire game from a banged up offensive line for the chargers
42:11they'll move this football i like the over in this game i think geno slings it new offensive
42:16coordinator ashton genti hey can you get more than five yards rushing in a game maybe that'll help as
42:20well i like you over in this game what do you think in charges and raiders i i just don't see where the
42:26raiders are going to get any money uh in during this before this game here uh the charges coming off
42:32the bye we know hampton is back here i'm sure the charges are going to be the single most popular
42:38survivor bet for anybody that's still alive and well and hasn't used them uh i think this is a
42:44pretty good get right spot for the chargers i just think the raiders are a hot mess and i think harbaugh
42:49will absolutely out coach pete carroll and company get the job done here denver and washington sunday
42:56night football looks like marcus mariotta probably going to be the quarterback again here is what we're
43:00listing here as a starter we'll find out later in the week a total of 43 and a half and a favorite
43:04of six and a half for denver on the road don't look now denver you're one of the favorites now
43:09that pressure's on you yep and denver right now uh eight and three to the under this season that's
43:16one of the best records in the nfl i i don't see how we're getting a ton of points in this one either
43:21you
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