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00:00The 7.30 kickoff, that's between Louisiana and Arkansas State.
00:04This line opened up right around that 2.5 price.
00:06Not a lot of changes in the marketplace.
00:08We see the total, 54.5 at the opening numbers.
00:11A little bit lower right now, live at 53.5.
00:14Louisiana, Arkansas State, football tonight, Joe.
00:17What's your spread line here?
00:19Donnie, I had to point this game out because this line makes absolutely no sense.
00:26Now, we know that the public doesn't get overly involved in these midweek games, right?
00:33You know, the Wednesday, the Tuesday, the Wednesday, the Thursday night game.
00:36It's not a lot of public money.
00:38There's not a lot of big handle at the sportsbook.
00:41And this is case in point because if the public understood what was going on in this game,
00:46they would clearly be favoring Arkansas State here.
00:49Now, let me explain to you what's happening.
00:51The line on this game would be reasonable, Donnie, if, in fact, Louisiana Lafayette didn't have
01:00not one, not two, not seven players suspended for this game for fighting and four of the
01:07top six defensive backs that they have, including the one all-American quarterback, Courtland
01:13Flowers, their best DB, won't be here for this game.
01:17And yet, this line continues to sit at Arkansas State at minus two and a half.
01:23Make it make sense, Donnie.
01:25Louisiana Lafayette will be playing very shorthanded on that side of the ball come tonight, Donnie.
01:32How about USC and Oregon Saturday?
01:353.30 kickoff.
01:36A big game in the Big Ten as USC travels to Oregon.
01:39This line opened up around a touchdown favorite, Joe, but now we're creeping closer to tens in
01:43the marketplace in a 59 and a half total.
01:46Seems to me, Joe, it's one of those eliminator games that we're going to have, six and one
01:50in conference play, USC, six and one in conference play, Oregon Ducks.
01:54The loser just might be out of the picture altogether in the Big Ten and also in the
01:58playoff race.
01:58What's your spread line for this one?
02:00Well, we wanted to keep an eye on this one.
02:02We mentioned it on Monday, and we wanted to see where the line would go by the time we
02:08got a little bit later in the week.
02:10And you're right, Donnie.
02:11I mean, we saw this thing open up nine and a half, 58 and a half.
02:14We did see initial Oregon money push this thing up to double digits, but funny thing
02:20happened yesterday, Donnie.
02:22I am seeing all the tickets and majority of the money on Oregon, and yet I've seen this
02:29line go back to where we started at nine and a half.
02:32So there is a line in the sand here with this number in double digits.
02:38It appears the more influential bettors are taking the points.
02:42Anytime you get the 10, they're hammering it back to nine and a half.
02:45They'll take the 10 with USC.
02:48So I don't know that we're going to get much more than what you're seeing here, but ultimately,
02:53maybe the best way to look at this is the total one way or the other, because it appears
02:58we're probably going to be getting a few points in this one.
03:01How about a game that's going to kick off, Joe, Saturday at noon, a battle of the Miami
03:06hurricane beaters here.
03:07Louisville taking on SMU in a line that had SMU over a field goal, Joe, and somehow it's
03:12four and a half, has now crept down to two and a half, still as a favorite for SMU at
03:16home.
03:16The total, which is up a little bit, that look ahead, 51 and a half or so, 53 and a half
03:20now in the marketplace.
03:22Louisville, SMU, and the ACC.
03:24What's your spread line here?
03:25Two, seven, and three teams.
03:26The best situational spot this week, Donnie, comes in this game here, where SMU will have
03:34extra rest coming off a bye week, and Louisville is reeling.
03:39I mean, not only has to travel now back to Texas after back-to-back losses, but it's got
03:45to try to figure out how to regrow.
03:47I don't know how they lost that game, 20 to 19 at the hands of Clemson there.
03:52And now they've got, I believe, Kentucky next week, a rivalry game, of course, coming
03:58up, which is huge in the state of Kentucky between those two teams.
04:03Not good.
04:04But the look ahead line and a lot of spots, Donnie, three, three and a half for SMU, and
04:09we're under a field goal now.
04:11So there is a lot of Louisville love in the marketplace, thinking that this could be the
04:17opportunity for them to get back into it.
04:19Anybody who laid the three, three and a half early with SMU, you're kind of scratching
04:24your head going, what is going on here?
04:27The spot favors SMU, but Louisville backed into a corner here with back-to-back losses.
04:34This is the spot of the week, Donnie.
04:37College football coming up this weekend.
04:39By the way, if you say coming up this weekend, it's been all week long here.
04:42Just maybe not the biggest games on the slate that played midweek, but we have a lot of projections
04:46to get to, and each and every week, they give you that stupid TV show that gives you updates
04:50that don't actually matter, and they can't answer any questions.
04:53Like, hey, Miami's got two losses, and Notre Dame has two losses, and Miami went head-to-head.
04:58Why are they below?
04:58They can't answer that.
04:59It scrambles their brain.
05:00But if we take a look at the college football projected bracket today, it does have Miami
05:04in right now as a placeholder against Ole Miss.
05:06And by the way, if you just told me we removed Tulane and put another SEC team in there, Joe,
05:11I love this bracket right here.
05:13This is a great bracket.
05:16Yeah.
05:16Well, and listen, I mean, the argument that James Madison should be in over Tulane is a
05:22legit argument, too.
05:23But the good news is we got a couple more weeks here, Donnie, to let it all sort itself
05:29out.
05:29But I still don't think they're going to be able to get over the whole Notre Dame-Miami
05:34argument with, you know, the same identical record, only Miami beat Notre Dame, and they
05:40could be on the outside looking in, and that's going to ruffle a few feathers when it's all
05:44said and done.
05:46And it should.
05:47And again, on this topic where I, it used to be in the past where, yes, it was, if you
05:51lost early in the season, you're penalized a lot less than losing late in the season.
05:55I understand that.
05:56But also, you have to understand that, like, Notre Dame lost to two good football teams
05:59open this year.
06:00A&M's good.
06:01A&M really hasn't played anybody either.
06:03Miami's a good football team.
06:04Miami hasn't played a ton of great football teams either at this point.
06:07But when you go back and say, the end of the season, where head-to-head is the ultimate
06:11drawback, like, they have both two losses.
06:13They won.
06:14I don't care when they lost.
06:15You should get a nod up.
06:16But you saw them plotting by keep on moving Notre Dame up to say, well, Notre Dame's like
06:21five slots ahead.
06:22You just can't drop them down.
06:23But theoretically, that's not the place.
06:24Now, things always tend, Joe, to work themselves out down the stretch.
06:28Like, yeah, we're expecting Miami to win their final two games.
06:30Oh, no, they lost to Pitt.
06:32Like, that's happened in the past to Miami.
06:34And Notre Dame, who knows what happens to them.
06:36But I just look at it like that and say to myself, it'll work itself out.
06:38And if it doesn't, throw it head-to-head.
06:40Because if two teams have two losses at major Division I schools and one team beat the other,
06:44the other team goes, stop the madness at this point.
06:47And that means also, if Notre Dame have wins over at Alabama and at Georgia and at USC,
06:52which, again, they did beat USC.
06:53But if you're looking at that, you're saying, well, yeah, these two teams aren't similar.
06:56But Notre Dame had two really good games to start the season and cupcakes all the way
07:01after that.
07:02We'll see what happens.
07:02Let's get to some of the games this weekend, Joe, which includes USC and Oregon,
07:06as we talked at the top of the show, going over some spread lines here.
07:10Nine and a half, almost a double-digit favorite for Oregon in this game.
07:13And I didn't really check yet.
07:14Are they getting some help back at wide receiver for Oregon?
07:17Because it seems to me, if the money's coming in Oregon, they must be getting healthier as well.
07:22Well, yeah, they are.
07:24I mean, they were missing their three leading pass catchers.
07:28But again, Oregon is a place, Donnie, where even the backups are extremely talented there.
07:36But as good as those guys are, the best wide receivers on the field are going to be for USC.
07:41So this game, whether or not Oregon, not just win it, but if Oregon is going to win it by margin,
07:49then that defense of theirs is the one that's going to have to step up.
07:53Because make no mistake about it, even Iowa and Kurt Ferentz said,
07:57you know, those are the best guys I have seen in a very, very long time.
08:02They have got guys that can take over a game.
08:05And Lincoln Riley's got to win a game on the road at some point, doesn't he, Donnie?
08:10Like, at some point, with all that talent, he's got to get it done.
08:14I tend to think maybe more points than less points in this game.
08:18Wouldn't shock me if we get a wild shootout here.
08:21Maybe team totals for both teams.
08:23Look at the over here.
08:24How about an ACC eliminator here for the championship game, Joe?
08:28Pittsburgh and Georgia Tech.
08:30With Georgia Tech as a favorite here, under a field goal now, just about every outlet.
08:33But a lot of points are expected at 61 and a half.
08:37The Jackets in the ACC, 6-1.
08:38Pitt in the ACC, 5-1.
08:41And away they go.
08:43I, listen, I think Pat Narduzzi shot himself in the foot.
08:47That entire situation of having to answer questions and letting everybody know
08:53you didn't care about a Notre Dame game and then getting blown out at home.
08:57And now what?
08:58We're supposed to just turn it on for Georgia Tech?
09:01Now, Georgia Tech is not Notre Dame, certainly not defensively.
09:06But my goodness, this is the kind of spot that Georgia Tech, Brent Key, the head coach,
09:12and of course, it feels like a 30-year-old quarterback now for Georgia Tech,
09:16is they have been very difficult.
09:19And if this game is a one-score game late, Donnie, I am going to trust Haynes King and
09:24Georgia Tech to win this game before I'd ever trust Narduzzi to go on the road and win this.
09:30Texas on life support for the college football playoff.
09:34But who knows?
09:34Maybe all hell could break loose over the next couple weeks.
09:36They knock off A&M and find themselves in the college football playoff.
09:40But they are a favorite here.
09:41Open up around 9.5.
09:42Most outlets here are sitting at 8.5 to 9 as a favorite over Arkansas on a total of 57.5.
09:48And Sark answering questions every day about, hey, brother, I think you want to leave, don't you?
09:53No, I don't want to leave.
09:54So you got that as well.
09:56Yeah, no, you do.
09:59But listen, they should have no problem here against Arkansas.
10:03Bad defense.
10:04They will put up points.
10:06Everything will be well.
10:07And then, of course, the big moment of truth is going to come in a couple of weeks
10:12when they have to take on Texas A&M.
10:14So I'm more worried about maybe A&M in a look ahead than I would be Texas here,
10:20who should have no problem against that terrible Arkansas defense.
10:23Now help me out with this.
10:24Wasn't Fran Brown one of the hottest coaching commodities in college football just a year ago for Syracuse?
10:29Now they're catching 35.5 from Notre Dame on a disastrous season.
10:34That sees a 35.5 point spread and a 50.5 total.
10:37So for me, Joe, I think Notre Dame, again, my angle this weekend is a lot of playoff angles
10:41where, yes, the odds maker is going to build into the equation that, okay, here's the statistics
10:45and here's what matters.
10:46But outside the box, Notre Dame understands.
10:49They need to run it up because they don't want it.
10:51They want more distance from this whole Miami talk and two losses here.
10:55You can't beat Syracuse by a touchdown.
10:56But I'm not going to lay the 35.5, Joe.
10:58I'm actually going to take the over 50.5.
11:01Notre Dame has a legitimate chance for me to get into the 40s.
11:04I just need Syracuse to have two scoring drives, and I think we get there.
11:08I'm going to take the over in this game, but I do think Notre Dame lays the smack down on Syracuse.
11:12Why?
11:13Because they have to.
11:15All right.
11:15So let me give you the last five games, which happen to be five losses for Syracuse.
11:21Total points scored.
11:2310, 10, 16, 13, 18.
11:27Yeah.
11:27Beautiful.
11:28Yeah.
11:28That's over.
11:29Yeah.
11:30That's the no.
11:31Not good.
11:31Yeah.
11:32Not good.
11:32Syracuse.
11:33And I think they have a wide receiver playing quarterback.
11:36So this should be first half for me, Donnie.
11:39To me, Notre Dame, they'll be up 40 to 40 to three at the first half.
11:44Yeah.
11:44I remember their coach for Syracuse saying the offseason, like, hey, what happens when people
11:47come pill for your program with players?
11:49Well, I don't want those players anyway, and we don't bother with them.
11:51Looks like you probably needed some of those football players to compete this year.
11:54But let me ask you a question about this, too, down the stretch as we see it.
11:58Because in the old BCS era, Joe, like margin of victory mattered.
12:01And if you had a game where you were favored by 14 points and you were driving with 30 seconds
12:06to go inside the five, usually good sportsmanship is like, hey, the game is over.
12:09Take a knee.
12:10Not the case.
12:11Like, you need to score as many points as you can because those computers would read it
12:15and say, whoa, 21-point win as opposed to 14-win.
12:17That's extra points here in the market for you to move up or down on a ladder.
12:22Talk to me about some of these teams, including, like, the Miami Hurricanes.
12:24Like, you are playing to absolutely surprise the pollsters.
12:29Like, wow, they won by that much.
12:30Or, ooh, that's not a good look.
12:31They only won by a few points.
12:33Handicapping late in the season with teams, Joe, that need to impress.
12:36How do you handle that?
12:38Yeah.
12:39Well, the whole thing is that now you've got human beings making decisions.
12:44And recency bias comes into play, Donnie.
12:46So, if you're going to have the argument between Notre Dame and Miami, and they have the same record, but one team won by three at home on a last-minute field goal,
12:58then I've got to look here and say, well, look at Notre Dame.
13:01They're winning 50-7.
13:04They're winning, you know, 45.
13:06They're destroying everyone.
13:08Yeah, it plays into the psyche, like it or not.
13:12So, the more points and the bigger blowouts, the better off you are, I think.
13:17Let me ask you a question about this one, Joe, because it's rare we see this.
13:20I have a game that's totaled at 59.5 points, Joe.
13:23The favorite in this game, minus 54.5.
13:28That's Texas A&M over Samford.
13:30Now, Texas A&M has Texas on deck after this one.
13:33Are you laying the 54.5?
13:35Are you saying, like, A&M's going to put up 35-plus in the first half and say, enough.
13:39Let's just get ready for next week.
13:41We've got bigger fish to fry.
13:43Oh, they are absolutely going to have to do that at some particular point.
13:47Otherwise, help you.
13:49I mean, if somebody gets hurt, I don't know what to tell you.
13:54A&M and Elko on their way.
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