- 6 weeks ago
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00So let's start and talk about some of these games today. Santa Clara takes on Kentucky and the
00:05Wildcats are three and a half point favorites. If all the favorites had won yesterday, you may
00:10have looked at it and just said, ah, you know, Kentucky, as you said, NIL money coming in over
00:1420 million. Easy win for them. Total 158 and a half. But I, like you, even though my brackets
00:21are filled, I'm starting to think maybe we are going to get more of those upsets today.
00:28Well, it's one thing you have to take away. I mean, the reality is what happened yesterday
00:32is not going to have a whole lot of bearing on what happens with these matchups here today.
00:36But there is a theme, I think, that we need to consider that we haven't had in years past.
00:42And that is, again, in this game, you've got a Kentucky team with a reported $22 million.
00:50They are paying their players. Now, $22 million, you would think that they were 31.
00:57We want to know during the regular season that they'd be unbelievable, you know, unbeatable
01:01with that kind of. No, they aren't. They went four and six in their last 10 games.
01:06They lost to Georgia. They lost to Auburn. They lost to A&M. They only beat LSU at home,
01:13by the way, by five. And in fact, outside of Rupp Arena, they haven't been great at all this
01:19season. That's $22 million. Now enter Santa Clara, who, I mean, pennies on the dollar do
01:27they pay their players compared to what Kentucky has got. And yet, this line opened up three and a
01:32half, four, Craig. And all I am seeing is Santa Clara money hitting the board. The public loves
01:38Kentucky. I'm in this spot all over the dog. I think Santa Clara has shown that they are more
01:45than capable of hanging with the big boys here. Yeah, I agree. I think this is going to be a
01:50great game. Now, on the flip side, we have Akron, another one of those teams, a mid-major from Ohio
01:55in the NCAA tournament, like Miami, Ohio. Not as good as Miami, Ohio, going into the regular season.
02:01But all of a sudden, here comes some steam for another 12-5 matchup. Texas Tech, minus seven
02:08and a half, total 156 and a half. This game is one of the first games, Joe, on the board.
02:14In fact,
02:14I'll be on the air while this game goes off later today. So, live dog here. I know Texas Tech,
02:20far better than Akron during the regular season. They were really good. Is this a potential upset,
02:26you think, today? Yeah, well, it's interesting. This is another one, right, where it appears the
02:32public is all over Akron in this spot. Why? Well, they beat Miami of Ohio. They were, for most of
02:40the year, I think, anyway, the better team in the MAAC conference, even though Miami of Ohio got all
02:45the headlines. Very versatile team. Can beat you in a number of different ways. And then you have
02:51Texas Tech, who unfortunately lost one of the top five players in the country this season in top end.
02:56And without him, they went three and three to end the season. In fact, they've lost their last three
03:03games. And I think, if anything, we want to pull away from yesterday, Craig, you know, VCU has now
03:09won, what, 16 of their last 17 games here. High Point also has rattled off a ridiculous amount of
03:16wins. Winning matters, especially heading into the tournament. And right now, Akron is winning,
03:23and they have been for a while. You know who's not? Texas Tech. It's kind of, they should win Texas
03:29Tech, but there is no way I would be laying this number with them, given their current state of
03:34affairs. I would agree. The one thing that you said that, you know, yesterday doesn't portend to
03:39today, I do believe that to be true. But you can be rest assured in that locker room today,
03:45Siena versus Duke is being shown to the University of Arizona today. The Arizona,
03:51their 30 and a half point favorites. I think those number one seeds today are going to roll. I don't
03:57think that they're going to be taken lightly because you have some tape as to what you saw
04:02yesterday from Siena. Do not let the other team get hot. That being said, it is LIU, a team I
04:08know
04:08nothing about. 30 and a half point favorites today for the Wildcats. Well, I'll tell you this, LIU did
04:15play this season two tournament teams. One of them was Illinois, and the other one was
04:20Georgia. They gave up 98 to Illinois and 89 to Georgia. That means we could very well have 100
04:28points on the board from Arizona in this game. So instead of laying that ridiculous number,
04:34I think the over is where the value is. I am sure LIU is going to be able to score
04:39enough points here.
04:40But I know Arizona is going to score enough to be able to not ask LIU to do a whole
04:46lot to get this
04:47up and over the 150, 151 and a half that we have. 14 versus three, Wright State versus Virginia.
04:56Virginia is, I mean, look, they're still a lower scoring team in college basketball,
05:01but they're not that team that puts up 40 or 50 anymore, as you used to remember.
05:06There's 17 and a half point favorites against Wright State. This game is Friday, 150 Eastern.
05:12It's just really hard for me to get, you know, Virginia's big upset a couple of years ago,
05:17a few years ago out of my mind, Joe. That's the one thing I just keep going back to is
05:21how that
05:21ended up happening. They should win today, but I don't know. I just don't like laying points with
05:26this team. No, I won't be laying those points with this team. I'm with you. I think Wright State
05:32out of the Horizon League has got a shot at keeping this close.
05:36We'll take a quick break here on the early line. We've got some games we still have yet to review,
05:41so we'll get to those. We'll also check in on some college hoops with Coach Young later in the show
05:46and Kevin Walsh. You're watching the early line on SportsGrid. We'll be right back.
05:51All right. Welcome back to the early line here on SportsGrid. What is everybody talking about this
05:54morning as they tune us in, stream us, watch us as they say, consume the show. It's not for me.
06:00It's not for Joe. It's to watch this high point head coach who I'd never heard of before. His name
06:06is Flynn Clayman. We'll get to him in a second. High point beats Wisconsin 83 to 82. It's the
06:13biggest upset of the NCAA tournament in a couple of years as not only does the 12 beat the 5,
06:19but
06:19high point was at least 10 point favorites going into this game. So naturally, Flynn Clayman feeling
06:25like there was a chip on his shoulder for his high point squad talked about the win after the
06:33game. Couldn't be more proud of his team in the summer when we get those shot tracker numbers back
06:42and there's 63 schools in the country to have it and we're number one every week and shots taken.
06:47They could talk about whatever we have, but we're working. We're selfless and it's pretty obvious to
06:54me that something needs to be done about this non-conference scheduling. High point in Miami,
06:59Ohio are 2-0 in quad one games. We couldn't get games. They couldn't get games. Akron couldn't get
07:05games. UNCW couldn't get games. Belmont couldn't get games. We won 22 of our last 23 games and we
07:11didn't move up one spot in the metrics. Not one. We won 22 of our 23. We've won 25 games
07:17by double
07:17digits. That team right there is a fantastic team that beat five top 10 teams. If we can get games
07:24like
07:24this on neutral courts and some home games, I think we'd know who's really the best teams. I'm proud of
07:28these dudes and we're not just here to win one game. We're here to get to the sweet 16.
07:32First of all, congratulations at High Point. They played a terrific game. Hit some unbelievable shots
07:39and that's the heartache that comes with this tournament is that the team plays exceptionally
07:45well and you get sent home when you don't take care of things you need to take care of. But
07:52extremely proud of my group to get us to this point. They've grown immensely. These three guys
07:57to my right have come a long, long ways both in their play but also in their leadership and their
08:03ability to handle adversity and grow. Extremely proud of them. As I told them in the locker room,
08:11the worst part is we don't get to go to practice again together. And how this group has grown
08:18together, they'll have something. Today sucks. Today stings. But they'll look back and how far
08:27they've come and what they've accomplished this year together and do that with a lot of pride with
08:32the bonds that they've formed over the past six months. Everybody is talking about High Point Joe
08:38as they should be because that is the story today. But there is a flip side to that, which is
08:43that
08:44Wisconsin hasn't won a game in the NCAA tournament since 2017. Greg Gard has been the head coach of
08:50Wisconsin all the way back. He's won in seven in his last eight tournament tries. So naturally,
08:57all the credit does go to High Point. But if you are Wisconsin and you go to that school and
09:01you're a
09:01student and you're heading to the tournament next year, I don't know how you can have confidence.
09:05I just got to be honest. You can't. That's the problem, right? And that's it. You know,
09:12you are what your record says you are, right, Craig, ultimately, at the end of the day. And when it
09:17comes to tournament play, Red Guard, Wisconsin, yeah, you can't make it out of the first weekend.
09:24And that is not, you know, that's an issue. Now we've had enough of a sample size, Craig,
09:29where we got to go. Yeah, there's something lacking with this program right now.
09:34Yeah, it has to be, especially considering they finished the regular season so strong.
09:38TCU did beat Ohio State. It was one of the early games yesterday, 66 to 64. They end in a
09:45thriller
09:46and they win that one and basically have a chance now to move on and see how far they can
09:50get.
09:51They'll play again tomorrow. Louisville also holds off a late comeback by USF. So I got that pick wrong.
09:56Clearly, Louisville wins 83 to 79. Cardinal led throughout the game. But USF did make a game
10:03of it. But then in the end, ended up taking over. But the big story yesterday appeared to be the
10:08percolating massive upset with Siena taking Duke to the brink 71 to 65. Here is Jerry. Well, we can't
10:17we don't have time to get to Jerry McNamara. So I'll get to Joe Ranieri instead. Siena. Did you
10:21did you think Siena was going to win this game, Joe, at any point? I just was, you know, honestly,
10:26I was driving. I was just checking the score, checking the score, checking the score. I'm like,
10:28when is Duke going to go up? When are they going to go up? It took a while in this
10:31one.
10:32Yeah, no, it did. And listen, the Duke players admitted it after a game saying, yeah, if we're
10:38being honest, we really never sweated that we thought we were just going to win. And Siena
10:43comes out there and smacks him in the face and sets a record too, by the way, for the largest
10:49halftime lead over a number one seed in tournament history. That's how big a lead that was.
10:55All right, we're going to have some big lead changes, I think, coming up later today. We'll
10:59preview Utah State Villanova, also Miami, Ohio, back on the court against Tennessee.
11:04Well, if you missed the late games in the NCAA tournament, I'm going to be honest with you,
11:09you didn't miss much. Lots of blowouts after things went dark last night, 8, 9 p.m. Eastern.
11:13One of those blowouts was Arkansas taking care of business against Hawaii Darius Acuff with another
11:20big game, one of the potential players of the year in college basketball. Here is Calipari.
11:24Calipari after a near 40-point win over Hawaii. Hawaii did come back to make it a little bit
11:30closer, but as Calipari said, team effort to get the win.
11:34What I was most happy with, we end up with 26 assists. We pass the ball to each other. We
11:40create shots for each other. Makes us pretty good. The start of the game, we talked about it,
11:47and we've been talking about it for the last month. First five minutes. Now, the first five minutes
11:53could be 15-15, but you were ready to play, and the other team played well, too. Today,
11:59they missed some shots, and then they started making shots. You've got to give them credit.
12:03They did not quit. Hawaii just kept playing, and all of a sudden, I'm looking up, it's 15,
12:10but then we make a play or two. These two, Malik Ewan is showing, he's basically telling on himself
12:18of this is how good I am, and the way he chased down balls with unbelievable energy,
12:25and then you saw TB, and the great news is you saw him where he wasn't making shots.
12:30How'd he look? And he didn't make shots, and you're looking at him like, holy cow.
12:35And that's what I just keep trying to tell him. If you make them, great. If you don't,
12:40just do all the other things you do. So that was a good start for us. Always worried about the
12:46first
12:46game. Hard game for everybody playing. Joe, I'll defer to you with Arkansas. That's about as
12:52impressive as a win as you're going to have in the NCAA tournament. Hawaii was no slouch. They had a
12:56great end to their season, even in their tournament, but Arkansas just easily won that game last night.
13:02Yeah, and I mean, the difference in athleticism was just was very noticeable in there, and Arkansas
13:09did their thing. You know, again, there is a lot of parity, Craig, in this year's college basketball.
13:17So, you know, kind of level of playing field for the mid-majors, but there are still,
13:22you know, that cut above, and Arkansas right now at Acuff Jr. is just one of those teams that's a
13:28cut
13:29above. Yeah, we'll talk about it again later in the show, but maybe the most impressive
13:33performance also happened while a lot of you probably were sleeping, and I wouldn't blame
13:37you. St. Louis put up 102 last night against Georgia as they advance to the next round as
13:43well. All right, so let's get to some of the Friday matchups here, Joe, and then we'll check
13:47in with Tom Vecchio on some baseball, and then we'll chop it up with some more hoops with Kevin and
13:51Coach Young. We've got Friday 410 p.m. Eastern, so that game is later today. Generally, for those of you
13:57who are watching the NCAA tournament, maybe for the first time, second time, is that they play all
14:01these games between noon and, like, five, then there's, like, a break, and then they start up
14:05the night games as well. So Utah State takes on Villanova, and as you can see, the oddsmakers are
14:11telling us, flip your coin on this one in the nine versus eight matchup. So this is, like, a conference
14:17matchup here, Joe. We're going to be talking about that after the game, but what do you make of this
14:21matchup before the game between Villanova and Utah State? Well, we're seeing a ton
14:27of movement towards Villanova. This seems to be a split in the marketplace there, Craig, because
14:33the public seems to love Utah State, but the line keeps moving towards Villanova at this one. So
14:41it feels like a coin flip game for sure, but, you know, I mean, both of these teams had plenty
14:48of
14:48opportunities against quad one teams. In fact, I think Utah State went four and four, and I believe
14:54Villanova went two and six against the better competition. So what does that mean? That likely
15:00means it's going to come down with these two teams is who hits the shots from the outside. Villanova's
15:06the better defensive team here. Something tells me defense may travel, and Villanova could represent
15:12the Big East moving on. We know Mountain West teams have not been good picks over the years
15:17in March Madness. Hard to believe a marquee game, Joe, could be played at 425 Eastern with one team
15:26getting 11.5 points, but it will be one of the most watched games on Friday. Miami, Ohio taking on
15:33Tennessee. The SEC versus that team that rolled through the regular season undefeated, and the
15:39oddsmakers are once again showing no love to Miami, Ohio. Now, the people who are betting these games
15:45have bet this down to 10.5. I would guess it'll close at 10 or maybe even lower because there
15:51is
15:51a lot of support for Miami, Ohio. Total of 148.5. Now, Tennessee is a far better opponent than SMU.
16:00I'm going to start with that here, Joe. But that being said, does Miami, Ohio have another upset in
16:05them today? Well, you know, again, upset remains to be seen, but I can tell you this. I mean,
16:13if Tennessee does what Duke did yesterday and thinks they're just going to show up and win this
16:17game, then yes, the upset is very much alive. Well, because Tennessee is not coming back if
16:23they're down that many points at the break to Miami of Ohio. But I think Miami of Ohio is more
16:29than
16:29capable of being able to, when you shoot that many threes and you shoot them as well as they do,
16:34Craig. They're getting double digits. Yeah, I think they can keep it within double digits here.
16:42And I would say upset depends on what we see in the first half, but I would certainly take the
16:48points and not lay them here. Okay, tough matchup Friday, 650 Eastern. Before that break, as I
16:54mentioned, Iowa takes on Clemson. Okay, tough one here for me. Hawkeyes, two and a half point favorites.
17:02Clemson has been no stranger to getting upset in the NCAA tournament, but they
17:06are the dogs here. And what you're going to find, Joe, is the lowest total on the board today
17:11in a tournament game of 130 and a half. So shocking that Iowa football and Iowa basketball
17:18playing in low scoring, boring games. Is that the case today? Yeah, it feels like we're going to get
17:23a safety and two field goals, and that's about all. This is going to be a 6-3 game when
17:28it's all said
17:29and done. Clemson, big injury to Carter Welling there in the ACC tournament. He was there starting
17:36forward. He was one of their better scorers, better rebounders. He is out. And for Iowa, it's all about
17:42Bennett Sturtz. He's a stud. The guy averages 20, 21 points a game for Iowa. Neither of these teams are
17:49in
17:50a rush to run up and down the court. So I don't mind the under, but it feels like this
17:55is a good
17:55shot for Iowa to be able to get one and advance here for Ben McCollum, and I think they will.
18:02All right. So another team from Florida trying to avoid getting knocked out of the tournament,
18:07but it's going to be an uphill battle for the UCF Knights. They're in the tournament this year
18:11against UCLA. The one thing I can tell you about UCLA, Joe, is that this is a favorite of five
18:17and a half
18:18points that can win by 30 and lose by 30. It's been that kind of year for the Bruins. Very
18:23strange
18:23team. Total 152 and a half. Do you get the sense that UCLA shows up for this one, or is
18:30it closer
18:31than the line would indicate? Listen, it's Jekyll and Hyde here with UCF. Which version of this team
18:38shows up? I think it's crazy that Mick Cronin and UCLA have to play out east, which is laughable since
18:45all he's ever done is complain about having to go out east. Well, now he's going to have to win
18:50a
18:50game here. But quite honestly, UCLA defensively and what they have brought to the table here down
18:56the stretch and through that Big Ten tournament, I think UCLA is live here. There's a reason why
19:02this line is kind of stayed right around the five, five and a half mark. I think UCLA and Mick
19:07Cronin can
19:08get it done. Just can't trust UCF at this point. Fair enough. And then, of course, the University of
19:13Florida does play tonight. That's the prime matchup in the south. 925 Eastern. The Gators
19:20are the biggest favorite in the NCAA tournament. 35 and a half. Total of 155 and a half. I mean,
19:27I don't know. I don't see Prairie View keeping this close, Joe, but I'm biased here being a Gator.
19:31What do you think? Listen, I don't either. But 35, I mean, to win by 36 or more is just,
19:37it's unnecessary to say the least, right? And listen, Prairie View, very athletic.
19:43You know, the back door could be wide open in the second half in this game as Florida sits
19:49everyone and Prairie View somehow sneaks in to make it a 33-point loss and not a 36-point loss.
19:56And then finally, Cal Baptist takes on Kansas. I see some people taking Cal Baptist. I knew nothing
20:01about this team. I have seen some people backing them. Yeah, and you should because this is another
20:07one of those, you know, dogs here. Kansas can't be trusted offensively. I mean, yes,
20:12they have Darren Peterson, but he's likely to sit out the second half. I would only take the points.
20:22And I'm hoping they've grown as basketball players.
20:26The only thing I'd like to leave the fellow coaches, which is have fun.
20:30March Madness, you know, I could be out of coaching next year. I really can be.
20:35You're 73. And I want to have the greatest time of my life. I said, I'm going to coach this
20:42game
20:43as if it's the last game I'll ever coach. Then if we're good enough to win, it's going to be
20:47here.
20:47And if it's next year, I'm going to coach next year as if it's the last year I'm going to
20:50be on earth.
20:51And that's the way I coach. But I also appreciate the blessings I've been given by being allowed to
20:57coach this long. Because I, it is a blessing to be at St. John's coaching where you grew up.
21:05It's a blessing.
21:06And we'll see how St. John's does in the NCAA tournament after a great run. Speaking of great
21:13runs, the story of the day in college basketball may have been high point, but the second biggest
21:19story of the day had to be what Sienna almost pulled off against Duke. That could be a team to
21:25look for in the future. Sienna led the game almost wire to wire with Duke, the number one seed coming
21:31back. They did not end up covering that huge spread, of course. And so are there silver linings
21:38in a game where you do not win? Let's find out and hear from the head coach of Sienna, Jerry
21:43McNamara.
21:44I've been doing this a long time. I don't think I've ever been more proud
21:49of any group of kids I've ever been around. You know, I think the world and college basketball
21:57saw what I've been so grateful and thankful to be around all season. You know, a group of
22:04kids that love each other, that compete at the highest level, play for each other. You know,
22:13we just, we got off to a great start offensively in the second half when they switched the zone and
22:18slowed us down a little bit. But you know, I went back and watched every time they've been scored on
22:24this season, this past week. And you go game by game and there's stretches where they just don't
22:30give up points. That's why they're who they are. I said after Atlantic City, I'm a proud coach. I'm
22:36still a damn proud coach. All right, Joe, Sienna with a silver lining win. But is that going to be
22:43the case today for Furman when they face off against UConn? And we know Hurley's going to have
22:48that team ready today to play the 15 versus the two. It's a 10 p.m. Eastern start. So if
22:53you can
22:53stay up for this game, you'll get to watch a two hour affair between these two teams where the Huskies
22:59are 20 and a half point favorites, total of 136 and a half. Any lean on this game at all?
23:05Well, that's the problem. Look at the total, Craig, 136 and a half. And you want me to believe that
23:10UConn, who was only covered, by the way, three games out of their last 14 in which they were a
23:18favorite of double digits. I can't. I can't get there. I mean, UConn has burned money this year
23:25as a double digit favorite. And listen, Furman's got a lot of size. They got shooting. And with as
23:33fewer possessions as this total is telling us we're going to get, yeah, I'll take the points
23:38here. I got no problem taking the 20, 20 and a half points. Meanwhile, the late game, the nightcap
23:44tonight here in South Florida, Joe, is everyone watching the University of Miami play out west
23:50tonight as point and a half favorites over Missouri. The Hurricanes, Joe, a month ago looked like they had
23:57no shot at making the NCAA tournament, but they came on strong at the end. Missouri, probably more
24:02consistent over the course of the same season, but Miami, the hotter team entering the tournament.
24:08Do you have an opinion?
24:09Yeah, I like Miami in this spot here because they're not ridiculously reliant on the three.
24:16They play better basketball in the half court than most. They can get out in transition and they've
24:23got absolute with Renault and Mitchell. They've got monster guys that can control the rebounding and
24:30the paint. And it's one of the best coaching jobs that we have seen all year long with Miami here,
24:36but I like them at such a short number here. I can't trust Dennis Gates in Missouri. I don't
24:42think they have enough interior presence to get it done. So Miami for me. Do you think that the
24:50games that they put these teams from the East Coast out west, Joe, does that make a disadvantage for
24:56them? I mean, the body clock to me is only early in the day, right? Like when they have to
25:00start off
25:00early. Yeah, well, when they have to do it, I mean, but I think they'll be I think they'll be
25:06fine
25:06because they've had enough time now to get assimilated out there and get it done, Craig. So
25:10I think they'll be ready one way or the other. I think it's going to be one of the more
25:15entertaining
25:15games, by the way. It's definitely kind of must watch, even though it's on late. Headlines coming
25:21up next. Kevin Walsh joins us. So does Coach Young. You're watching the early line here on this Friday,
25:26March badness edition of the show. We'll be right back. Welcome back to the early line here on
25:31Sports Grid. I'm Craig Mish, along with Joe Ranieri and joining us now because he's been
25:36working so much and, you know, just working the candle at both ends here. Kevin Walsh was going
25:43to be on the show with us, but unfortunately couldn't make it. So we made an AI version of
25:48him to join us here on the show. So it looks like him. I think I mean, man, we did
25:54a great job
25:54reproducing him, but he is with us again here on the program. Kevin, this is a fun time of the
26:00year,
26:00but let's just be honest with everyone out there for hosts like us. It is taxing. There's a lot of
26:05games. There's a lot of breakdowns. And in order to catch the entire NCAA tournament, you got to be
26:10watching until like one o'clock in the morning, East Coast. That's the bad news. The good news is,
26:14is the games were in hand late last night, right? Yeah, they were. It was really a matter of,
26:19you know, was Gonzaga going to mess this up, especially now that again, with respect to Texas,
26:25it's probably going to be a shorter point spread or a bigger, I should say, now that they're going
26:30to play the 11 in Texas than what would have been a six seed matchup against Dibansa and BYU. So
26:37no, look, late night, we had some routes here. The big upset came very, very early in the day.
26:43Like you said, Craig, it was High Point who took out Wisconsin. I remember someone definitely not
26:48going to name names, Joe Ranieri, who came on yesterday. I was like, obviously, Kev, High Point
26:53shouldn't even show up to the game. I was like, respectfully, I think they should probably play
26:57it. And it ended up being a pretty fun basketball game. Yeah, definitely. So it's unfortunate too,
27:03because all the money Joe lost, he has to stay in New York now and can't come back forever. He's
27:07got no money to fly back there. He's got to Uber over to a train. Okay. So the game of
27:14the day,
27:15you know, I don't know that this fits the game of the day, honestly, but here's what happens in this
27:19game between Alabama and Hofstra. I'm going to keep it real here, Kevin. Alabama wins.
27:23We don't discuss the player being out and arrested. If they lose, that's the entire
27:27story. Is that as simplistic as I can be with this? 11 and a half point favorites.
27:31I guess my pushback, Craig, is if they win, we then go to, okay, is he coming back now?
27:39Because it's Alabama. Most programs, we wouldn't even bother, right? But we're like, okay,
27:44so he's gone now. That's fine. But is this guy going to be back for Sunday? Or if they win
27:52a sweet
27:5316, you know, and are in that spot, could we see Aiden Holloway there? With respect to this game
27:59here, I think it's actually one of those spots where if you are in places, you can actually get
28:05access to college basketball player props. It becomes very interesting how you try and take
28:09advantage of the Aiden Holloway situation. I think a lot of people are going to look to bet LeBaron
28:13Phylon, rightfully so. He's a star, potential lottery pick. But those numbers are going to be
28:20heavily, heavily adjusted. I would keep your eyes on Latre L. Wrightsell. Not that Wrightsell's some
28:25sleeper. He led this Alabama team or leads this Alabama team in made threes. He's played twice
28:30without Holloway this year and attempted six threes in one of the games and 14 in the other.
28:38Wrightsell to make three threes is at about plus money. So that's one way I'm going to look to
28:43bet the absence of Aiden Holloway. Now we also have, go ahead, Joe. No, I was going to say,
28:51I can't think of anything worse to trust than Matt Painter teams at this point in the season,
28:57outside of Greg guard teams with Wisconsin, apparently. But Matt Painter's teams usually
29:03figure out ways to disappoint. Is Queens alive here today, at least to stay within this number?
29:11It's funny. Yesterday, I talked about betting North Dakota, which did not work out. They lost
29:16by 25. But as a 16 and a half point dog, it's like, I don't think they have any chance
29:20to win.
29:21And they, which they didn't, obviously. I say that to say, this is a 10 point higher spread.
29:27I'm not only on Queens. I think there's a world that happens. I think there's a world that this
29:33Queens team actually wins the game. Now, Purdue should really just score every single possession.
29:40Queens cannot guard. It's crazy that a defense this bad made the NCAA tournament.
29:45They're about a hundred spots worse when we talk about defensive efficiency than the next closest team
29:50that is in this dance. But all Queens wants to do is shoot threes. And Purdue, for some reason,
29:58is like, hey, why don't you go ahead and shoot threes? And that's just where you add variance in,
30:04right? Like, again, like we talked about yesterday with the high point Wisconsin thing is if Wisconsin
30:08goes cold and high point is can score and they won the three point battle 15 nine and not to
30:14turn a
30:15exciting game into something boring. That's about it, right? You win a three point battle by six.
30:20That's an 18 point, you know, advantage you give yourself. I think Queens covers this game.
30:26I really feel strongly that they cover the 25 and a half. It's worth a dollar or two,
30:32I think, as I see Craig is looking at me like, no, it's not. No, I want to go over
30:37real quick.
30:38And listen, you guys know way more about this than I do. Let me let me be clear on that.
30:42But I can do research. So Queens University lost to West Georgia, Central Arkansas,
30:51and something named Bellarmine. Queens, Georgia lost to do you guys even know? Have you ever
30:57heard? Honestly, don't don't fake it with me here. Have you ever heard of Bellarmine College? Honestly?
31:04Actually, yes. I would have told you if it was a school that the answer was no. I will also
31:10tell
31:10you that Purdue while I know because it's Purdue. Yes, I agree with that. But Queens College has no
31:18business being in this. No business. They absolutely agree. They're bad. Is this the worst team in the
31:25tournament? Somehow? No, it's the worst defense in the tournament, Craig. Okay, it's the worst defense
31:30in the tournament. By again, by a lot. I want everyone to be very, very clear about something.
31:35Okay? It's the tournament. So it happens. When Purdue scores 100, people are like, Kev, you're an idiot.
31:45Well, not if Queens can find their way to 75. That's all we need. It wasn't you anyway. It's the
31:52AI version
31:53of you today. So it doesn't matter. You could be wrong on that. It's okay. All right. St. John's,
31:58Northern Iowa, 512 here. Crashing line a little to NIU here. I guess maybe because of the 512 yesterday.
32:05Kevin, is that is that what's going on? A lot of people just seemingly like the spot for Northern
32:11Iowa here. I was talking with someone yesterday who kind of made the point. You don't really see
32:15a lot of 12 lost 12 seeds, right? My high point yesterday was a four loss basketball team. Northern
32:22Iowa getting a lot of respect, not just on the line, but in this spot here. I'm kind of zagging
32:28against the grain a little in this spot. I bet the over at 131 and a half. Both of these
32:34teams lean on
32:34their defense. Northern Iowa is one of the five slowest teams in college basketball,
32:39but 131 and a half is too low for a St. John's game. So I played the over fellas.
32:43All right. Kevin Walsh with us here on the show. He combed his hair for our show. We appreciate
32:47that. We'll be right back with more here on the early line. Don't go away. Okay. So now
32:51it's time for us to go into our poll of the day, but we call it Fade the Public.
33:03All right. You can check out our poll on X. A lot more people voting today than yesterday,
33:08which is always a good sign. Which upset was more impressive yesterday? High Point over Wisconsin
33:12or VCU over North Carolina? Answer is possible. Of course, High Point VCU or there's more to come.
33:20Joe, I will tell you this. I will say this. I know most people voted for High Point. Do you
33:28think,
33:29I'm going to say this, I think there is a bigger upset to come today in the NCAA tournament. Do
33:34you
33:34or no? There could be. I mean, listen, the High Point beating Wisconsin, yes, was definitely
33:42fantastic. But, you know, it felt like they were in that game, you know, and we were waiting for
33:49the wheels to fall off of Wisconsin. VCU was down by as many as 19 to North Carolina in that
33:56second
33:56half, Greg. I mean, there was legit no reason to think anything other than North Carolina being
34:03North Carolina. And before we know it, we're in overtime and they lose. So I would think VCU would
34:09get my vote there simply from the sheer ridiculousness of how many they had to come from behind to get
34:15done. But yes, there, this could just be getting started. We could see another monster upset here
34:23today. All right, let's get to our best bets. All right, Joe, I'll start with you.
34:33Who do you like today? What's your best bet in the tournament?
34:36Well, listen, I may be sitting in New York City right now, but I am going back to Miami there
34:43and I am
34:43taking the Hurricanes late night in St. Louis taking on Missouri. Now, something tells me there might be a
34:51few Missouri fans in the crowd here tonight, but I don't care. It's virtually a pick them price.
34:57I love Malik Renu. I love Trey Donaldson. I love Coach Lucas and what he has done. He's never
35:04obviously never been a head coach here, but he's going to have an opportunity to get his first
35:08tournament win. And hopefully it's going to be a long career for him at Miami. He's going to rack up
35:14a bunch of these, but I like Miami eight and two and true road games this season. I think they
35:20get it
35:20done. Even though the crowd might be a little bit pro Mizzou tonight. I think Miami, the Hurricanes
35:26get it done. I filled out a bracket with Gonzaga getting to the final four. So I'm certainly going
35:32to back them against Texas tomorrow. Five and a half point favorites. Texas is magic of winning
35:37the play in. And then against BYU comes to an end this weekend and the zag end up covering the
35:44spread.
35:45We'll take a quick timeout here on the early line and we'll come back with more.
35:53All right. Welcome back to the early line here on sports. Great time now to take a closer look at
35:56prediction markets coming up on Newswire, by the way, at 12 o'clock Eastern. I'll discuss the new
36:03partnership with Major League Baseball and Polymarket. Really interesting prediction market
36:09mashup that we're going to see throughout the season. I'm not exactly sure how that's going to
36:14look. But Joe, let's start talking about some college hoops here on the prediction market side.
36:19And we'll start off with this matchup in the NCAA tournament between Kentucky and Santa Clara. It's
36:25the first game on our board today, by the way, at 1215 Eastern, as you can see, 58% Kentucky,
36:3342%
36:34Santa Clara, very similar on Polymarket as well. Yeah. And listen, we know Kentucky just has not lived
36:42up to the hype this season at all. When you spend $22 million on a roster, allegedly, and you're here
36:51sitting at a number seven seed taking on a team that is not a great matchup for you by any
36:57stretch
36:57in number 10, Santa Clara, who is filled with a bunch of very large wing players that are just as
37:04athletic and love to shoot the three. And they're very good at it. Herb Sendak has been around the game
37:10a very long time. He knows what it takes and how to get his players ready. And they're all going
37:16to
37:16have a giant chip on their shoulders. Nobody feels that they can get, they can win this game.
37:22But I'll tell you what, the market certainly does, Craig, because we saw this thing as high as
37:27four and a half, even five for Kentucky. And now we're looking at three and even two and a halves
37:33in the market. So there is a little bit of market love for Santa Clara. And I agree with it.
37:38You can't
37:38trust Kentucky. You haven't been able to trust Kentucky. Would it be shocking that Kentucky loses
37:44in the first game that they play in the tournament against the team everyone thinks they're going to
37:49blow out? Would not shock me here. I think there's some value with the underdog, although a smaller
37:55underdog now, I think the market is on to it. Let's take a look at the market with the game
38:01coming up
38:01at 1240 Eastern today. And that is Akron against Texas Tech. As you can see, very similar percentages
38:09on both Polymarket and Kalshi in terms of where they stand. And I think most folks feel that Texas
38:16Tech is the far superior team with this. But Joe, any value on the other side of this taking Akron?
38:25Yeah, we've seen this before in years past, too, with this 512 thing where the five seed is dealing
38:32with injuries to important players. And you've got a mid-major team that has won everything and
38:39is steamrolling into the tournament. Guess what happens? The five seed wins without there being
38:44much of a problem because the backups are likely better than the starters on the other team. We saw
38:51it back in 2021. I think Villanova taking on Winthrop is the same type of situation. And yeah, I think
38:58the
38:58Texas Tech Raiders, even though they've lost their last three games heading into this one of the season
39:03and the Big 12 tournament, I don't think they're going to have a problem here with Akron. It's not
39:08a great matchup for Akron. I think Texas Tech handles their business and they'll likely do it early,
39:16Craig, and put them away early. And I think maybe a team total for Texas Tech up and over might
39:22be a
39:22worthy market as well. Our first matchup of the one seed, 16 seed, as we discuss on the prediction market
39:30front, is going to be Arizona taking on LIU. Remember, Arizona, Joe, when the season began, November, December,
39:38January, was simply the very best team in all of college basketball. And then they went through a little bit
39:43of
39:43a slump and then picked it up later on in the season. I think most folks feel that Arizona will
39:48win this game. But as we saw
39:50yesterday with the Duke-Siena matchup, I suppose anything can happen.
39:54Yeah, I don't see that happening in this spot here. Listen, Arizona, the good news for Arizona is they
40:01got to see Duke almost blow it yesterday and realize, wow, I don't think Coach Lloyd is going to have
40:08any problem getting these guys up and ready to go. And we've already seen what LIU can do against top
40:15teams like Illinois and even Georgia for that matter. And it wasn't pretty giving up, you know,
40:2190 plus points to each. What do you think Arizona is going to do here? They are going to score
40:26a ton
40:27of points. I've got Arizona interesting market. I've got them like we watched Michigan last night. I think
40:33Arizona drops 100 points in this game. So team totals maybe ladder it up there. I think 100 points
40:40is very much alive and well against LIU for Arizona. The Cavaliers have not been worth backing in the
40:47NCAA tournament for years. Now, naturally, they're doing things differently there and they're expected
40:51to score more points. And they showed that during the regular season as well. They earned a three seed
40:56in the tournament against Wright State. But I don't know, Joe, like I kind of feel like if there's a
41:03massive upset to be had today, maybe this is the one. I mean, Kevin did bring up some really good
41:08points and Purdue has fallen flat in the tournament as well. But I don't know, looking at that Queens
41:12team from the other side, Wright State, on the other hand, looking through their schedule.
41:17I don't know. I may breathe a little life into the possibility here.
41:22Yeah, it just it feels like, again, being a good Horizon League team and against other Horizon League
41:30teams is one thing. But I just don't know that they have the kind of firepower to go up, especially
41:36inside the paint with what Virginia is going to bring to the table here. This feels like
41:42it could very well be a an easy win, never trailing, never sweating for Virginia. I think
41:48Virginia is going to have some problems moving on from here. But I think Wright State is not going
41:53to give them a hard enough time here to be worried about a losing or be not covering here. And
42:00I think
42:01both are going to happen. I know it's a big number, but it feels like a, you know, an 84
42:06to 63 kind of
42:08game here for Virginia. Meanwhile, a lot of folks in the bracket seemingly picked Iowa State as their
42:16team. If there was a two seed to get to the final four, it was the Cyclones. They take on
42:21Tennessee
42:22State, one of the lower end teams in the NCAA tournament. Joe and Iowa State was just fantastic
42:27throughout the regular season, even in their conference tournament. So I mean, look, maybe
42:32maybe this is one of those where I would say I could see a blowout today. And I don't really
42:39predict those sort of things. But this to me just sort of smells like one. Yeah, and I think it's
42:45going
42:45to be over rather quickly here. And I know Tennessee State got great story this year, really good to see
42:53them in there. You know, and Tennessee State is a huge big time ISO heavy style of basketball that is
43:02not going to work against the swarming defense of Iowa State and what they like to do. Iowa State likely
43:09going to be able to get whatever they want in this game here. And once the three start falling, and
43:16they
43:16will be falling for Iowa State here, this game is going to get out of hand in a hurry. I
43:21would know,
43:22Craig, and I don't expect Iowa State to allow Tennessee State to get in this game at all.
43:27First half might be a really good look here for Iowa State. Also, their team total, another one that I
43:34see going up and over here today. All right. And the final game for us to break down will be
43:41the most
43:41intriguing game because the University of Alabama lost one of their key players going into the tournament.
43:48Unfortunately for him, was arrested, seemingly making a bad decision. Although again,
43:53we'll let litigation and the law play out on this one, but they will not have their second leading
43:58score for this game against Hofstra, Joe. I know a lot of folks in the Northeast and Long Island area
44:03are going to be pulling for Hofstra here. Do they have a shot?
44:08No, they don't. They don't have a shot of winning. Could they? I mean, they certainly shoot the three
44:13enough here. And, you know, could that be enough to maybe get a backdoor cover? I don't think so.
44:20I think Alabama has shown us time and time again that they have enough depth, especially against a
44:27mid-major team, to be able to at that tempo and the defense that Nate Oates brings to the table.
44:34Yeah, I think Hofstra is going to be in trouble. I think they run away with this. All will be
44:38fine
44:39for another day in Alabama. It's after this that we have to worry about. Yeah, I would agree. And by
44:45the way, for those of you getting ready for day two of the NCAA tournament and you want to track
44:50all
44:50of your picks, you can download the Sports Grid app and you can get that right to your phone.
44:55And simply put, it is the very best way to keep track of all of your bets and also stream
45:01our
45:01programming will be live throughout the day from 3 to 7 p.m. Eastern. So make sure you tune in
45:08and
45:08you stay in. We will be right back with more of the early line after this. So stay with us
45:13here on
45:13the grid on Sports Grid. Don't go away. Welcome back to the early line here on Sports Grid. Now joining
45:24us to talk some NCAA tournament. Day two is Coach Young. James Young with us along with Joe Ranieri.
45:31Gentlemen, it was quite the first day here on the NCAA tournament, Joe. And I suppose, man, if we have
45:39another day like yesterday, Coach Young is not going to be not going to be able to leave the house
45:44after
45:45yesterday. Yeah, no, it's it was quite the day yesterday. And coach, I got to ask you, though,
45:52right off the bat, we watched one of the biggest comebacks in tournament history there with VCU
45:59going up against North Carolina when Vassar went to, I guess he was trying to grab his own rebound at
46:08the
46:08foul line, but never hit the rim and couldn't figure out why like the the level of stupidity coming out
46:14of
46:14North Carolina yesterday in that game was head scratching to say the least, was it not?
46:20Head scratching is not even a word to describe it, Joe. I mean, that's the end of the game. I
46:27mean,
46:27up by 19, not running an offensive set, no defensive urgency, offensive futility, missing layups,
46:35missing free throws, not knowing situations, not playing your bench. I mean, it was like it was like a
46:41snowball effect that happened last night with North Carolina. I'm going to write a story on my
46:47sub stack. It'll come out within an hour where I say the Carolina way or the right way. I think
46:52there'd need to be a serious conversation about North Carolina moving on from Hubert Davis. I just
46:57it's too much. It's time. And you saw Villanova who's playing today in the tournament. I don't
47:02know if we have time to talk about their game. You saw them go away from the from the Jay
47:06Wright villain
47:06of Roley Massimino, Steve Lapis Villanova tree. And now they I think Carolina are in the same boat.
47:15I think they need to have a conversation about getting rid of Hubert Davis and go outside the
47:19Carolina family. Can't argue with you there. Sometimes change is necessary. It ain't working
47:25there in North Carolina. Some have said Nate Oates might be on a on a string here, but he's got
47:32Hofstra coming up a little bit later today. And he'll have to do it, of course, without his number
47:38two scorer on the team. But it feels like if anybody can still out shoot you out of the gym,
47:44it's likely going to be Alabama. But the markets and they still believe Alabama is the rightful
47:50favorite and is likely going to win this thing by double digits. What are you thinking?
47:57Put on your track shoes. Put on your track shoes. Speedy Clarkson's done a great job at Hofstra,
48:02but even without the Aiden Holloway, LeBaron filing, there's there's too many guys with Alabama,
48:08too many dudes. And when you kind of dig deeply into this team with Alabama, I mean,
48:13they're the number three offensive adjusted efficiency offensively in the NCAA. They do not
48:18turn the ball over. They rebound the ball well. They shoot it well from three. It's going to be
48:25literally a track meet. So put your game shoes on. Alabama will run them out of the gym. If you're
48:31worried about a side or overall total, just take Alabama's team total over. If you're Nate Oates,
48:37you're going to try and get this team going right away. So the distractions get off the floor.
48:42Uh, take the Alabama team total point over today. All right, coach. And we, uh, listen,
48:49you, you and I know you've been following this long enough that nothing scares me more in March
48:54madness than backing Matt painter teams, uh, who should always win. They should always win
48:59comfortably. They got Queens Purdue here, but can we trust this Purdue team to run away from Queens
49:07college in this one? It's kind of like we talked about. We're going to, I'm just going to say one
49:12side,
49:12uh, if you want to take produce team total over produce team total over in the first half,
49:17I won't blame you. Let me just go through Ken Palm and give you some stats real quick, Joe.
49:21Number two, uh, adjusted offensive efficiency versus 320. Number 10 and effective field goal
49:27shooting percentage, 300 first, uh, 15, the turnovers versus 286 20th and rebounding versus 300.
49:35You see a trend there, Joe. This is really good versus really, really bad. So if you're
49:42Matt painter, especially what happened, uh, almost, I think it's, uh, four years ago to the
49:47day, uh, when they lost after you, you're not playing with your food. The whole can of whoop
49:52ass will be early in this game. If you can find team total overs in the first half,
49:56just take it with Purdue. Queens cannot slow this team down whatsoever.
50:02So what do we do? You had mentioned earlier, Rick Pitino throwing a whole heaps of praise here
50:08towards a Northern Iowa, uh, who is really given teams fits all year. They're not going to be in
50:15a rush to go anywhere. They are, they play defense. What do we do here? The total is low. The
50:22spread is
50:22high. What are we getting from the Johnnies here today? I think you lean on their defense. Uh,
50:27their defense has been fantastic down the stretch of season. Listen, folks,
50:31Rick Pitino is going to have this team fired up. Uh, and I think he's going to also say to
50:35him,
50:35you can be beat. He made a point locally. I know you're up in the area. He went on SNY
50:39with Nicky Latarulo and said something effective. They play Northern Iowa kind of like Seton Hall,
50:46which is good because that means you've played a team three times. It's kind of similar. So,
50:51and that rugged side defensively walked the ball up the floor, Northern Iowa 319 and a pace of play
50:58with the ball in their hands. St. John's and they're slowing down defensively. Look at Northern Iowa team
51:03total under. They don't, uh, they don't rebound the ball. Well, St. John's defend. Well, they defend
51:10the three. Well, uh, Northern Iowa doesn't shoot it. Great. Northern Iowa is going to try and drag
51:15instead of deep under the pool. That's okay with the Johnnies taking team total under for Northern
51:19Iowa. Uh, one of my favorite games tonight, coach the you, I mean, coach Lucas, unbelievable job at Miami
51:28in his first season here. You got to go into enemy territory though. Take it on Missouri
51:33in St. Louis of all places for the late game tonight, but I love renew. I love Trey Donaldson
51:39and I love that. They don't have to beat you because they have to rely on the three. What
51:44do you think we're going to get from Dennis Gates and company here? Yeah. Dennis Gates has done a
51:48great job. And here's the thing that's going to be interesting folks. You have two teams that are
51:52two 73 and three 30 at defending the three point line. So there's going to be threes a lot there.
51:59This team, this game screams over to me in regards to teams that are not able to defend the three
52:04point line. Well, both teams rebound the ball pretty well in the offensive end, which leads to
52:09second and third shots. And Joe, you notice nothing is more dangerous than an offensive rebound,
52:15kick out three, but the way these two teams shoot the ball, look at this game to go over between
52:19Missouri and Miami. Love this two teams going in different directions though. Mick Cronin, UCLA
52:26seem to have figured it out down the stretch. UCF, just a hot mess. I don't know which version
52:31of this team shows up, but I know Dent and Billet are actually going for UCLA. So they will have
52:38all
52:39their starters available. Five and a half is the number. What are you thinking here, coach?
52:43I like UCLA team total over number 20 in offensive efficiency in the NCAA. You see a bottom 100 in
52:51just about every defensive metric. According to Ken Palm, UCLA will score and score at will.
52:58Hear that correct. UCLA is scoring my friend. They are scoring at will. Just hope you wrote that down.
53:05Just saying. Appreciate that as always. Coach, enjoy it, my man. Always a pleasure to talk to you.
53:11One team more March Madness coming your way here on the Prediction Edge.
Comments