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00:00Come on, Joe. The fun has begun and the stakes just got higher. Today's spread lines. We're
00:06going to start Big 12 action. It's Baylor. It's Arizona State. 1230 tip off. You got to love it.
00:13But also, Joe, we got word yesterday that Arizona State head coach Bobby Hurley, he won't be back
00:20next year, but he's going to coach through the tournament to see how far they can go.
00:24The line in this game opened up at Baylor minus two and a half. Most outlets that you see on
00:27the
00:27graphic here, minus three and a half, but also starting to see minus four and a half as a
00:32favorite towards Baylor and a total of 153 and a half. One last hurrah, Joe, for Arizona State
00:37head coach or is Baylor the better team? What's your spread line today?
00:41Oh, Baylor is the better team, Donnie. I mean, the look headline for this was two and a half
00:46and you can already see where the money is going up to three and a half, even four in
00:51some spots. And they listen, Baylor played one of the most difficult. We talk about strength
00:57of schedule. They played one of the most difficult schedules of any team in the country here.
01:03And it's not that they didn't have a lack of talent. It was very hard to put it all together
01:08right from the get go. But down the stretch, Donnie, they have been playing their best basketball
01:13across the board. This is a very dangerous team coming into the Big 12 tournament. And although
01:20Arizona State has had some big wins down the stretch here, Donnie, beating teams that we didn't
01:24think they could beat, I think this is the end for Hurley. This is likely the last game that he
01:30coaches for Arizona State. I think Baylor is just too good. Too much offense, better offense,
01:37better defense, more length and athletic ability. I'm all about Baylor in this spot here today.
01:44Joe, the Hurley brothers have coached with each other as a head coach and an assistant coach.
01:49Could Bobby Hurley say, you know what? I'm out at Arizona State. Let me go back to UConn and sit
01:52on the bench with my brother here. Let's see what happens if he does go back East Coast style.
01:56But let's keep it moving because tournament action all throughout the day, 7 o'clock here
02:00in the Big 12, Joe. It's Kansas State taking on BYU. Hefty numbers here. Minus 10 and a half
02:06across the board. A 165 and a half total, which we are expecting points. However, Kansas State's
02:11offense show the 16 teams in the Big 12 dead last in efficiency. 15th in effective field goal
02:16percentage. 14th in turnovers. 16th at getting offensive rebounds. And 15th at getting to the
02:23free throw line. But we are expecting points here. BYU, Kansas State, Joe, what do we have here as a
02:28spread line? Yeah, well, Donnie, the other side of that coin is that especially over the last couple
02:33of weeks of the season here, don't forget Kansas State had already fired their coach, you know,
02:39month and a half ago, Jerome Tang. Now they're trying not to pay him. It's a mess at Kansas State.
02:44But they are also, over the last stretch of the season, 294th in defensive ability ranking.
02:53Not to mention BYU, by the way, not much better, 310th. The idea that you are going to sweat out
02:59an under in this game, neither of these teams are going to play any defense at all. None of them
03:05are
03:05going to get stops. You've got, what, two of the top four scorers in the country that are going to
03:11be
03:11face and offer one another here. DeBansa can absolutely score whatever he wants. Rob Wright,
03:18the third's ability to be able to get to the rim. To me, I am no way am I looking
03:24at an under in any
03:25sort of Kansas State or BYU game. It's all about the over to me here. How about a BYU stinkfest
03:32there?
03:32Well, maybe they win that game. I'm going to give you a Big Ten stinkfest here, Joe.
03:36Joe, Maryland versus Oregon. Across the board, Oregon is the favorite at minus 3.5. And keep in
03:41mind, we're not like the mid-majors where you play these first couple games at home. They'll be in
03:45Chicago, and who knows how much of the fan bases are going to show up for this one. A total
03:49Joe
03:49listed at 138.5. But look from Maryland's perspective. You want to know how much they've
03:54struggled this year? The Big Ten is 18 teams. Inefficiency, Joe, they're dead last at 18.
03:59Effective field goal percentage, they're 17th. Turning the basketball over in conference play,
04:03dead last. And you know what hurts even worse, Joe? Dead last as a team from the free throw line.
04:09Oregon, Maryland today, what are we seeing here as a spread line?
04:13Yeah, well, to me, this is all about two words. Dana Altman and the head coach for Oregon
04:20has, over the years, been a guy that you want to back come tournament time. Conference tournament,
04:27March Madness. This guy always has his teams somehow playing their best basketball come
04:34tournament time. It was not a good season for him. Injuries piled up. It was not good. But
04:41down the stretch, Donnie, once again, they covered four of their last five games. Meanwhile, Maryland
04:46has lost now four straight games. The Ducks have already beaten this team by 10 on the road back in
04:53January. This is the lightest number, one of the lightest numbers on the board, right? It opened up
04:58at what, three, three and a half for Oregon. I'm not betting, I learned a long time ago, do not
05:04bet
05:04against Dana Altman teams in any sort of tournament setting come February. Not about to start doing it
05:11here against Maryland. Oh, but let's flip it over to some college basketball talk, Joe. Go over some of
05:15the odds on some of these conference tournaments here. And we will start in the ACC. Duke,
05:19the heavy favorite at a minus 330 price. They are dealing with some injuries to their starters,
05:24followed by Virginia, Louisville, Miami, UNC, and Clemson. Duke, the heavy favorite, Joe, in the ACC.
05:30Well, they should be. I don't care how many injuries they have. The guys that are coming off the bench
05:37to replace the one starter that they might not have. Yeah, they're just as good. So don't think,
05:44as long as they have, you know, Boozer there ready to go, I think they are good to go here.
05:51I know
05:51Malik Brown is a problem there, but I like what we're going to get from Cam Boozer and his Duke
05:58team. They are the favorite, and they are the favorite for a reason, Donnie. They are also one
06:03of the best teams rated by Ken Palm that we have seen. Their numbers and their stats are the likes
06:10we
06:10have not seen in a very, very long time. Yeah, minus 330. That's the heaviest favorite,
06:15Joe, from the majors here that we're going to talk about, which includes the Big Ten. And
06:19Michigan is the favorite, Joe, at a minus 105 price, followed by Illinois at plus 470,
06:23Purdue at plus 650, Michigan State, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. Good Big Ten tournament, but Michigan,
06:28the slight odds-on favorite at minus 105. And they, listen, they've beaten everybody in that list,
06:35Donnie, and they've beaten them rather easily. So, yeah, another one of these teams that statistically,
06:41you know, there's four teams, Donnie, that coincide with the four number one likely, you know,
06:47tournament picks there, but they're all rated. They're just a step up from everybody else,
06:53and Michigan is one of those teams where it's hard to bet against them in a tournament setting,
06:58especially against teams they've already dominated. We're on a collision course, Joe,
07:03in the Big 12. Two teams up top, Arizona at a plus 115 price, and Houston at a plus 210
07:08price,
07:09followed by Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, and BYU. Will Arizona and Houston, Joe,
07:13be lining up in the final for the Big 12? Now, see, as this league is loaded, there is no
07:20clear,
07:21number one. As good as Arizona was, you know Houston, you want to play them 10 times,
07:27what are we going to get, Donnie? Five and five, six and four, maybe. The problem is there's a lot
07:33of other very good teams in this conference, too, namely Iowa State, or how about Kansas,
07:40or Texas Tech? So, they might just devour themselves in the Big 12 tournament here,
07:46and we might have an unlikely winner, but I wouldn't just hand this like we handed Duke and Michigan.
07:52I wouldn't just hand the Big 12 to Arizona here. Another collision course, Joe. Could it be in
07:59the Big East? The world's most famous arena, Madison Square Garden. UConn is the favorite of the Big
08:03East. Odds on it, minus 125, and St. John's at a plus 210 price. Villanova, Creighton, Providence,
08:09and Marquette. That place is going to be rocking if it's Utah, excuse me, UConn, St. John's in that final.
08:15Yeah, I mean, listen, Villanova, Seton Hall, you know, nice stories can make teams like UConn
08:25and the Johnnies sweat a little bit, but ultimately, I don't think UConn has any value at all in this
08:32spat. I don't like the way they have looked down the stretch. I don't like their offense. I think
08:37it's the Johnnies, quite honestly, that are going to run the table here and come out as Big East
08:43champions. SEC, Joe, is it just a formality? Florida, minus 180 price. The next team in line
08:49is Arkansas at a plus 700, and the same thing with Alabama at a plus 700, followed by Tennessee,
08:54Vanderbilt, and Kentucky. Florida, absolutely murking teams, Joe, left and right as they head
09:00into the SEC tournament. Yeah, and there's a reason they're minus 180, and the next closest is plus 700.
09:06Just do not bet it. Do not even bet that. Just pencil Florida in and move on here because
09:13not any one of those teams is going to step in front and cause any damage to that Florida team.
09:20Not many people usually, Joe, would be paying attention to the MAAC conference here and say,
09:25whoever gets there, it's no big deal. But when you see the odd structure here of this conference
09:29tournament, there's a team, Joe, that's unbeaten, a perfect 31-0. They're not the favorite to win this
09:35tournament. It's actually Akron here at a minus 125 price, followed by Miami of Ohio, plus 220,
09:41Kent State, Toledo, Bowling Green, and Ohio. This is going to be a competitive race here,
09:45but the question comes up, hey, Miami plus money? What gives, Joe?
09:50Well, listen, Akron almost beat Miami of Ohio this season here, but statistically, Donnie,
09:58they have been better across the board. Ken Palm's got them rated higher in the big four categories.
10:03They're a great team, which is, again, while I love the fact that they ran the table, went 31-0,
10:10the MAAC conference could be a two-bid league here because Akron very likely can win this tournament,
10:17will win it, and you're not keeping Miami of Ohio out running, going 31-0. So there's two teams from
10:23the MAAC that are going to take positions there in March Madness.
10:27How about the MAAC feeling? Like, you get two teams in, that's more money for that conference,
10:31higher paying, higher structure. They would love for Miami of Ohio to get beat, but also,
10:35Miami of Ohio's got a lot of pride. Like, they got to see that and be like, you know what,
10:38that's disrespectful. We went unbeaten and we're the underdogs. And Joe, it's not plus 100 and plus
10:43105. Like, they're at the side, an underdog feels like, too Akron at this point. Here's what we love
10:47today. Tips off, Joe. 12.30 p.m. Eastern. Baylor and Arizona State in the Big 12. And away we
10:53go
10:53for the rest of the day. It's basketball. It's Mark Spanness. It's the early line. Right here on
10:58the Sports Grid Network.
11:052-0 night last night. That's a great way to start the week. It's a Tuesday, so why not double
11:10up to
11:104-0? Joe, lead off here. Where are we going tonight?
11:13Yeah, well, we're going to go college, Donnie, again. And we're going to head to, well, the Big
11:1810 tournament kicking off today. And it's the bottom feeders, but it's clear one bottom feeder
11:25has an advantage over the other. And that is Oregon's Dana Altman, who I have learned the hard
11:31lesson years ago. Never doubt Dana Altman teams in tournament time here. No reason to doubt that
11:39Oregon will not handle business against a reeling Maryland team that's lost its last four games of
11:46the season. And quite honestly, Oregon has been very competitive here down the stretch, even though
11:52they've dealt with nothing but injuries all year long. Dana Altman knows how to get his kids ready
11:58to go. They will win this, just like they won it back in January by 10. They'll win again here.
12:04I'll
12:04lay the three and a half with Oregon. We back in business. We back in business here, Joe. Ready
12:11to go. Here we are. Prediction markets edge. So exciting here. Had a little cold opening, Joe.
12:16That's how you get down to business. That's how you open the show and get after it, Joe. We're not
12:20cold. We're hot.
12:24I'm excited here, Donnie, because we've got a lot going on here that we can dive into the markets
12:31about because, let's face it, in addition to the NBA and college basketball, World Baseball Classic,
12:38a lot of NHL talk going on in the final, what, 20 games of the regular season here? A lot
12:43at stake
12:43here for teams. Prediction markets edge right here on the early line. Donnie right side and Joe
12:49Ranieri having some fun here. We'll take you through with a different way to look at investments
12:52here as opposed to just betting on a sports book. So away we go. It's no surprise. We're going to
12:57be
12:57college basketball centric here, getting it started. Why? Conference tournaments taking place across
13:02the country, setting us up for selection Sunday, which comes this Sunday. And away we go into March
13:07madness at Dayton for the first four. Baylor, Arizona State, 12, yes, 1230 p.m. Eastern today.
13:15And if we take a look at this one, Joe, Baylor favorite at a 60% chance to win this
13:20game on
13:20Cal State, Arizona State at 40%. If you're looking for the spread here, four and a half as a favorite
13:25towards Baylor. That is listed at 48% as a chance and 152 and a half points trading at a
13:3256% chance
13:33right now. Getting it started, Joe, the big 12, Baylor in Arizona State. Yeah, and we've seen the fade on,
13:40right? We know this is Bobby Hurley's last game as coach of Arizona State. He will not be
13:46retained here. They have had some nice wins. You know, they're not a terrible team. They just are
13:54a very inconsistent team. And you've got a Baylor Bears group that has played the single toughest
14:01schedule across the board in the country. Donnie, that has gotten better and playing their best
14:08basketball over the last month of the season. I can trust Baylor in this spot. I do trust Baylor
14:14in this spot. And I would look not only for you to win this game, but I might be looking
14:21at a team
14:21total over for them as well. Excited, man. Love to see these conference tournaments, even if it's a
14:27lower level games played in the afternoon, it's almost, Joe, like that appetizer before we get the
14:31next week and everything goes for real once the first four is done. And then we get the Thursday and
14:35Friday, some of the two best days across your sports calendar. No doubt about it. Let's keep
14:40it, Joe, in the Big 12. Kansas State going to take on BYU. Kansas State, not good on offense,
14:46not good overall. Fired their head coach looking for a new one. And there they sit here in the Big
14:5012 tournament, taking on BYU. The chance for BYU to win this game, trading at 80, actually it's trading
14:56at 83 cents right now. And Kansas State trading at 19 cents just shows you the discrepancy. If we put
15:02in the actual spread to these games on the Cal State marketplace, Joe, nine and a half as a
15:07favorite towards BYU, currently trading at 54 cents. So if you're saying to yourself, I do think the
15:12BYU Cougars will win this game. $100 investment, Joe, pays back $186. Kansas State, BYU Big 12.
15:21Yeah, I mean, listen, look at the total. That'll tell you everything you need to know about what the
15:26markets think are going to happen in this game. It is by far the biggest total on the board. I
15:32saw
15:32it at 168 and a half last night, Donnie. It's now at 166 and a half. And I'm not sweating
15:38out and under
15:39in these two teams that clearly think that defense is optional here. You know, BYU is just going to
15:46want to score. DeBantster's been an absolute monster. He's going to get whatever he wants. Very
15:52little resistance here. I would be looking at a BYU total, Donnie team total up and over as well as
15:59the full game over because BYU is not going to step in front of any of the Kansas State players.
16:06They should be able to score enough to get this thing in the 170s. Also survive in advance now as
16:11well. If this is going to be the last game you're going to play, you're probably going to extend it.
16:14If it's close, I'll walk off the court. We're down six or 30 seconds ago. No, you are fouling,
16:18which could get some of these games extended here. Let's flip it over, Joe, to the Big Ten.
16:22Maryland taking on Oregon. And you just explained to the people here on the early line why you like
16:27Oregon so much. But if we take a look at Maryland, horrible on offense, Joe. Horrible on defense as
16:33well. Oregon trading right now at a 63 cent price here to win this game outright. Maryland at 39%.
16:40If we take a look at the spread here, three and a half points as a favorite for Oregon. That's
16:44currently trading at 52 cents, Joe. So $100 investment would pay back 193 if you think
16:50Oregon is going to win by four plus points tonight, Joe. Maryland and Oregon tipping off
16:55in the Big Ten. Yeah. And again, this is the recipe for Dana Altman teams have always been
17:01play your best basketball when it matters the most. That's the last couple of weeks, last
17:06month of the regular season and heading into the post. And he did this last year in what used
17:12to be, you know, or the last time the Pac-12 was together. He does it all the time. Disappointing
17:18season, regular season, a lot of injuries, Donnie. But look at his last five games. At USC, win.
17:25Wisconsin, win. Lost by a point at Northwestern. No shame in losing to Illinois. And then beats
17:32Washington. So this is a team that, again, even with the injuries, is playing their best,
17:38heading in to take on a Maryland team that lost to Illinois, lost to Wisconsin, lost to Rutgers,
17:44lost to Nebraska, then lost to Northwest. This is just not a very good Maryland team. I'll take
17:51Oregon all day long here. Again, with Maryland, understand this. In Big Ten play,
17:57worst efficiency rating, second to worst effective field goal percentage, worst at turnovers, and also,
18:03Joe, in a close game. We're not talking about, hey, 14 and a half points. It's not going to come
18:07down the free throws, Joe. Dead lasting conference play at free throw percentage as a team. That's
18:12your worth. Hey, make a one and one. They can't make one. You come away with a victory on the
18:15other side for Oregon. We'll see how that plays out, Joe.
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