00:00Closing in on the month of August, and of course, as we go through August, the hurricane season ramps up
00:04very quickly.
00:05I'll show you that in a second.
00:07So far this season, we've had two storms, right where we should be, two tropical storms.
00:12The third tropical storm historically, or third storm historically, is early August.
00:18So we're right on track with a normal hurricane season.
00:21We typically don't see the first hurricane, though, until August 11th.
00:25We are now in what I call the doldrums of the hurricane season.
00:29We got birth of the form.
00:30But from July 15th to August 15th, we usually don't get much in the way of tropical development.
00:36You lose the homegrown development because you lose the interaction between the jet stream and the tropics.
00:41And the tropical Atlantic, usually still pretty quiet due to wind shear and dry air.
00:47If we do get any development from now through, let's say, the middle part of August, this is where it
00:54would occur.
00:54It would be off the east coast of the United States and into the Gulf in this area.
00:59Now, this is not a low probability of development.
01:03Some people I see online talking about it having a low chance for development.
01:07That's not what we're saying here.
01:09What we're saying here is that the Atlantic Basin is shut down for development, except in this region.
01:16Any development would have to occur here.
01:18I'll show you why in a second.
01:20And right now, there's not really any signs that anything would develop.
01:25But that's where you got to watch.
01:27When you look at the hurricane season, you know, you would think as you go deeper and deeper into the
01:35season that you would more likely get storms in July than June, right?
01:42It is interesting to note, you see this little bump up in June.
01:47Then once you get to July, it kind of flattens out until about August 3rd.
01:51And then you start seeing an increase after about the 15th or so.
01:55So this is what I call the doldrums of the hurricane season.
02:00Sometimes, not always, you get less storms in this period than what you do from July 15th through August 15th
02:06than what you do during the month of June to mid-July.
02:10There's a reason for that.
02:12And this time of the year, the Atlantic Basin has problems with a lot of dry air.
02:22I want to show you the water vapor loop.
02:23Take a look at this.
02:24This is the west coast of Africa.
02:27Here is Dominican, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico.
02:31These are the lesser Antilles.
02:33Look at how much of the tropical Atlantic is covered in dry air.
02:38This is what we call Saharan dust, right?
02:41And that shuts down tropical development.
02:43What happens is you get these tropical waves coming off Africa.
02:47But as they come and move to the west, there's all this dry air in place.
02:52So none of them really develop.
02:54Also, what you tend to have is strong wind shear.
02:58Take a look at the wind shear product.
02:59Look at the amount of wind shear you have in here across the Caribbean and also into the southwest Atlantic.
03:06Now, yes, you've got this zone in here off Africa, although this is pretty far south for development.
03:12But you have this area where you have low wind shear.
03:15But if I take you back to the water vapor loop where you have low wind shear, what do you
03:21have?
03:21You have a ton of dry air, right in here.
03:25Look at all the dry air.
03:26See?
03:26So that's why it is unlikely to get development this time of the year in the tropics.
03:32Instead, you need development near the United States when you get a dip in the jet stream interacting with the
03:40tropics.
03:40And that usually occurs in the Caribbean, off the southeast coast of the United States, and also in the Gulf.
03:45Now, let me show you what's going to be happening here moving forward.
03:50I want to show you the east coast infrared satellite picture.
03:54And when you get a dip in the jet stream, what ends up happening is, is that the dip in
04:01the jet stream brings frontal boundaries and upper lows into the tropics where you can get showers and thunderstorms.
04:08Do you see what's going on here?
04:09You've got a front in here, right in here, right in here.
04:14And along that boundary, you notice what you're starting to see.
04:18Let me draw that boundary again.
04:19You notice what you're starting to see with that boundary?
04:23Along it, you're starting to get showers and thunderstorms along that boundary, right?
04:30And that begins the process for tropical development.
04:38Now, in order for these showers and thunderstorms to become a tropical entity, you need to have low wind shear,
04:46warm water, and you have to get those showers and thunderstorms to sit over the warm water for at least
04:5348 to 72 hours for this to become a tropical system.
04:58Now, if you have any dips in the jet stream, as long as this dip sits there, the better possibility
05:06that you do have for tropical development.
05:08I want to show you the upper air pattern in this area over the next, let's call, week or so.
05:16So, do you continue to see a dip in the jet stream there?
05:19And the answer is yes, you do.
05:21Let's go out in the middle.
05:22See, right in here, what you have going on here, you've got a high here and a high pressure here,
05:29right?
05:29So, you've got this little dip in the jet stream in here.
05:32This is as we get in the middle part of next week.
05:35In fact, early part, you just continue to get this little dip in the jet stream.
05:39There's Thursday.
05:40Now, it lets up a little bit Friday at next week.
05:44And then, here's your next dip as we get into the 12th and 13th.
05:49You see that?
05:49Coming in across the east, this will go all the way down.
05:53So, early part of the week, next week, you have the dip in the jet stream.
05:57Then, it goes away and then it comes back as we get toward the middle part of August.
06:01Now, it's not strong, quite honestly.
06:06You can't see showers and thunderstorms denoted down across the southeast.
06:10I don't see anything in this area that is going to organize.
06:15However, with those dips in the jet stream, right, and then when you look at the wind shear in this
06:23area,
06:23this is early next week, where you see the blues.
06:26You see how you start by the time we get into late next week?
06:29Look at this area.
06:31You don't have any color.
06:33That's low wind shear.
06:34Now, the rest of the Atlantic is shut down.
06:37So, that's why we say, listen, it's probably going to be quiet.
06:41However, if you do get any development in the Atlantic Basin,
06:46this is the area to watch moving forward.
06:51We'll keep an eye on it, and so should you.
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