00:00Things are heating up in the Atlantic right now.
00:02That's true. The Atlantic was asleep. Somebody woke it up.
00:05We went 19 days without a named storm in the Atlantic, which is actually a record-tying lull.
00:13And actually, back in 1992, it was the same days exactly from August 29th until today, September 17th,
00:19that we went without a named storm in the Atlantic.
00:21But now, Gabrielle is here.
00:23Take a look. Not a very organized storm system. Not looking too healthy at this point, which is good news for us.
00:33Now, the reason why? Dry air and wind shear.
00:35But here's the track we think that Gabrielle is going to take.
00:38Now, you'll notice we stay at tropical storm status for a while.
00:42And you might be wondering, well, Gabrielle went from a tropical depression, so not even a named storm, to Gabrielle pretty quickly there.
00:49And that's true. But now, those conditions are just not favorable for this storm to strengthen.
00:55However, by the time we get to Sunday, that's when we think we get to hurricane status.
00:59The good news, once again, we are not looking at U.S. impacts from this storm.
01:04The steering flow is driving Gabrielle further to the east.
01:07Bermuda, though, we're looking at some potential impacts there.
01:09Not a direct hit, but increase in rain, stronger wind gusts.
01:14We'll take a look at those in just a minute.
01:15But here's what I was talking about with that dry air.
01:17We have Gabrielle, and we have dry air that's really kind of been shearing Gabrielle apart a little bit as we've gone through the last 12 hours or so.
01:26Now, those conditions should improve as we look towards the weekend.
01:29That's why we think that's when Gabrielle finally strengthens.
01:32The other thing we think improves as we get into the weekend is the wind shear.
01:36So on this map, darker purple indicates stronger wind shear.
01:39A tropical storm does not want strong wind shear.
01:42In order to stay together, in order to strengthen, it wants low wind shear, which is in the lighter purple.
01:49So Gabrielle moving into the stronger wind shear.
01:51However, then things improve.
01:53Now, we do think Gabrielle hangs on and maintains its tropical storm status.
01:57We don't think that we bounce back and forth between a depression, a storm, and then eventually a hurricane.
02:02But it's just not looking good for Gabrielle right at this minute, which, of course, again, good news for us.
02:09Now, I mentioned Bermuda.
02:10Here's exactly what we're talking about with that rainfall from Monday night through Wednesday morning is the timeline we're looking at here.
02:17I go to the local storm, max four inches of rain.
02:20Then we're talking about 40, 60, even 70 mile per hour wind gusts, which can certainly do some damage, lead to some power outages.
02:27Now, this is not all that we're tracking in the Atlantic.
02:30Just coming off the coast of Africa, we have another tropical wave that we are eyeing.
02:35We've been highlighting this for days now with a low chance of tropical development in the near term.
02:42So, September 19th to the 22nd, we're watching for when this moves west into the Caribbean because then the conditions are right for it to strengthen.
02:50We're watching for maybe some potential U.S. impacts, but not for at least seven to ten days.
Comments