00:00Tropical storm right now likely to become our first hurricane of the season in about 48 hours.
00:05That would be Thursday afternoon or evening, and then a major hurricane likely into Saturday evening.
00:10Now, this storm is going to bring damaging surf and rip currents.
00:14We're likely to see coastal flooding along the Outer Banks, and up and down the East Coast,
00:20there will probably be, again, many high-dollar figure amounts for the cost of sand replenishment
00:27and so forth tied to this storm, even as it stays offshore, most likely, it's going to be a big concern here.
00:33Coastal erosion is very expensive for the beaches and the municipalities up and down the East Coast
00:37to keep those beaches strong and the dunes intact, and this is going to chew them apart here in some form.
00:43But we're looking at a storm that's kind of fighting some dry air for now.
00:46You can see a little bit of a flicker of convection ramping up this evening.
00:50It's a cyclical thing.
00:51It's going to be passing south of the big Bermuda Azores High, and then curving sharply northward,
00:57and you can see our seven-day forecast, something you can only find here on the AccuWeather Network
01:01and with AccuWeather.com, and the AccuWeather app goes two days beyond the typical National Hurricane Center forecast.
01:07And those final two plots are pretty meaningful there, showing the nature of that curve northward.
01:12This is going to be passing south of the zone here.
01:14Some stronger wind shear, so that may keep it in check for a time as well,
01:19but most likely the center of the storm will stay south of that as the Bermuda Azores High steers it west.
01:24And we have two scenarios.
01:26One, an eastward position for the Bermuda Azores High, a stronger, faster trough.
01:32That would steer this sharply out to sea and perhaps minimize some of the coastal erosion.
01:37That could be an expensive problem there for the coast.
01:39Scenario two, though, you're going to see this stronger Bermuda Azores High farther west, a slower trough.
01:45That would allow it to come awfully close to the east coast next week.
01:48So we're going to have this fork in the road Sunday into Monday, and in either case, there will be a side swipe on the north side of the British Virgin Islands,
01:56the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, 40 to 60 mile-per-hour wind gusts, one to two inches of rain out there.
02:01That would be a concern, and some risk to lives and property here, especially for those in the water.
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