AccuWeather forecasters are concerned that a storm that may never have an official name could cause major damage from the coasts of the Carolinas all the way up to New England.
00:00Looking at impacts, so what are you most concerned about?
00:03Well, we've been, here at AccuWeather, our experts have been calling this storm a tropical wind and rainstorm since Monday.
00:10And we've been highlighting these impacts well ahead of all other known sources because we want people to be best prepared and stay safer.
00:17That's what we do here at AccuWeather.
00:19We're most concerned about the coastal flooding threats with this system.
00:23This may be resulting in major coastal flooding along parts of the mid-Atlantic and even northeast coastline
00:32because we're going to have a prolonged and strong onshore flow that's happening at a bad time of the month due to the astronomical tides.
00:40They're already running at higher levels than the historic average.
00:43So the risk here is hour after hour after hour of onshore wind and waves on top of that water level increase,
00:54that can result in extensive damage to beaches, to coastal homes, boardwalks, and overwash onto coastal roadways.
01:02And a storm that may never receive a name from the government's National Hurricane Center may go on to produce billions of dollars in damage and total economic loss.
01:12We want people, we're raising the concern about this because we want people to be prepared along the coastal areas.
01:18And, Jeff, in many of these locations, there is not yet even coastal flood watches from the government out.
01:24And we'll show you where we're most concerned about the significant impacts.
01:27And, John, the area of low pressure has yet to really form, but we're confident that it certainly will later this week.
01:33It will, and we've drawn that on our map.
01:35Here's wherever the tropical rainstorm will form later Friday evening.
01:39And then notice the track up the coast, but very slowly as it does so here Sunday into Monday.
01:46And that's why those impacts are going to be prolonged as the storm makes its way up the coast and eventually likely turns off to the north and to the east.
01:54And, yes, it is going to produce some rain and there can be some localized flooding.
01:57But it looks like by far the largest issue is going to be the coastal flooding and the beach erosion, followed by the strong gusty winds,
02:04which can be enough to produce localized power outages in some areas along the coast, especially as you head further to the north.
02:11And, John, obviously we have huge concerns later in the storm's life cycle about New Jersey.
02:16But we hate to see the Outer Banks yet again sitting in a period of onshore winds here.
02:21That's another reason that we're concerned about this, because this part of the Carolina coastline has had multiple episodes of significant beach erosion and coastal flooding.
02:32There have been, unfortunately, some homes that have been damaged and lost in recent weeks here across parts of the Outer Banks.
02:38And yet again, onshore northeasterly flow, that's going to push the water toward the coastline.
02:44And, again, that water level increase will be accompanied by waves on top of that, so that can result in further beach erosion.
02:51And then look at all these lines.
02:53This is all the gusty northeast wind that will be screaming.
02:58This is a hybrid howler-type system, as we call it, because it may have characteristics that are similar to a tropical storm and those that are like a nor'easter.
03:07And that tends to produce lots of wind right along the coastal areas here from the mid-Atlantic, from the Carolinas, mid-Atlantic, and all the way up into the northeast.
03:16So, John, as we kind of break this down timing-wise, Saturday, we're getting into it, but this is probably the key time for the Outer Banks.
03:23That's right.
03:23That's where that onshore flow will result in that coastal flooding.
03:26And, by the way, it's not only just right along the coastline.
03:29There's lots of sounds and bays here.
03:31And when you have such a pronounced onshore flow, that is, winds from the north and from the east directing that water toward the coastline,
03:40there's no way for that water to recede at lower tide because more water is coming in.
03:46And so that results in sound side and bay side flooding that can be quite significant.
03:51And sometimes there's more flooding on the sounds or on the bays than there is right at the Atlantic Ocean.
03:57And this water can get trapped into places like the Delaware and the Chesapeake Bay for days as there's only one way.
04:03And sometimes the mouth of these bays are almost like a one-way valve for a period of time.
04:07So, John, how much wind can we expect along the coastline?
04:10Well, we're expecting wind gusts of 40 to 60 miles per hour along the coastline.
04:15And this is the area that we're most concerned about from parts of New Jersey south toward the Delaware and eastern shore of Maryland,
04:22down toward Virginia Beach and the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
04:24There certainly can be impacts further north as well from a coastal flooding perspective.
04:29But these are the areas that, due to the way the storm is wrapping up and developing,
04:33may be susceptible to the most, the greatest risk for major coastal flooding.
04:37And the rainfall is going to be significant as well.
04:39Perhaps some aspects of that might be a slight side benefit.
04:42But this could be a really expensive storm.
04:44It could.
04:45And that's where the damage can add up fast.
04:48There's a lot of homes and businesses along the coastline in these areas.
04:52And that's why it's time for people to prepare for this upcoming storm and do what you can to mitigate the risk for coastal flooding.
05:00Now, rainfall, how much are we expecting here and who could hit the hardest?
05:04There'll be a widespread area of two to four inches from parts of the Carolinas through the mid-Atlantic up toward Long Island,
05:10including parts of the New York City metro area and then one to two inches back toward Interstate 95.
05:16And then, John, regarding coastal flooding, storm surge, where do we think this may be worst?
05:23I think the greatest risk here is going to be from New Jersey down toward portions of the Carolina coastline,
05:30where there can be generally one to three feet of water level rise.
05:33But look at this, an AccuWeather local storm max of six.
05:35So it can be worse than one to three feet in some areas, as I mentioned,
05:39especially perhaps on the Sound or Bay side of some of these coastal communities.
05:43When we think back to a relatively modest flood event from a month or two ago
05:47when Margate Fire Department made 30 water rescues, this is going to be more significant than that.
05:52AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist John Porter.
05:53John, thanks so much for breaking down all these details.
05:56Stay connected here at AccuWeather all week long.
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