00:00Hi there and welcome to the Met Office week ahead forecast.
00:03There's no denying that September so far has been wet.
00:07This week so far has also been windy and wind and rain remain the key themes this week as
00:13low pressure after low pressure turn up across the UK.
00:18Signs of a change into next week, more on that later.
00:21But for now, we're still talking about low pressure.
00:23One low clears on Tuesday, a respite for many from the wet weather, although it's not entirely
00:28dry or entirely sunny.
00:30Showers continue to feed into western parts of the country, particularly northern and
00:34western England, western Scotland, Northern Ireland, North Wales.
00:38Now towards the south, it is a drier day, some places avoiding the showers, but it turns cloudier
00:43later and winds pick up once again as the next weather system starts to approach.
00:48Because there's less wet and windy weather around, it will feel a little warmer, temperatures
00:53reaching 20 Celsius in the southeast, mid to high teens elsewhere.
00:58But it's really through Tuesday evening that we see the next batch of wind and rain arrive
01:02from the Atlantic.
01:04This area of low pressure in particular starts to arrive.
01:07It's not going to be a particularly fierce low, but it will contain within it strong winds,
01:13especially for the northwest of the UK.
01:16As you can see here, out to sea wind gusts of 70 miles an hour plus, but as that low brings
01:22its strongest winds into Northern Ireland, Irish Seacoast, northern and western Scotland,
01:28it's mostly 50 to 60 mile per hour wind gusts.
01:32And the low sticks around for some time.
01:33So this is mid-afternoon Thursday, the strong winds pushing across northern Scotland whilst it
01:40turns less windy further south.
01:42But certainly the mid-week period is looking very blustery with the mix of strong winds
01:48and gales in places.
01:50Rewinding the clock to the start of Wednesday, and it's these fronts that we'll see first
01:54thing, bringing a swathe of heavy rain across the UK, persistent wet weather.
01:59Heaviest across central parts, particularly for Wales, the south and west of Wales prone
02:04to very heavy rainfall, 50 millimetres in six hours or so during Wednesday, especially over
02:09higher ground.
02:12And it's going to be a soggy day for most of the country, but it does brighten up in
02:14places by the middle of the afternoon, particularly safe for parts of Northern England, North
02:19Midlands, North Wales.
02:21Showery rain continues across the north and northwest of Scotland.
02:24It stays damp in the south.
02:26It's going to feel a little more humid, however, despite the cloud and the rain temperatures
02:30still managing to get up to 20 or 21 Celsius.
02:34Whilst the front moves through, we see a trailing front across central parts of the UK during
02:40Thursday.
02:41A little bit of uncertainty because this is a waving weather front about the exact location
02:46of its band of rain.
02:48But there will be some wet weather across parts of the Midlands into parts of Wales, for example,
02:52through the day, perhaps fringing upon the southwest of England.
02:56That's going to come and go.
02:57It will ebb and flow through the day, perhaps pushing north towards the end of the day.
03:01But in between that and the showers that will continue to affect the north of Scotland,
03:05there will be some drier and brighter weather, particularly for parts of Northern England,
03:08for example.
03:09And towards the far south and southeast, most likely staying drier.
03:13Still fairly gusty in the south, but the strongest winds will be pushing through Northern
03:17Scotland at this stage.
03:18And as I mentioned, coastal gales with gusts in places of 50 miles an hour or so.
03:24Now into Friday, that trailing weather front that I mentioned, it's still with us, but
03:27it's going to push further north once again across parts of Wales into Northern England.
03:31South-west Scotland and Northern Ireland.
03:33And again, further heavy falls of rain expected in these locations, particularly over higher
03:38parts of north-west and UK.
03:42Towards the south, however, it does turn drier and brighter.
03:44The best of the sunshine in the south-east.
03:46And winds are beginning to change direction.
03:48That could bring some warm weather into London, for example, 23 or even up to 25 Celsius, depending
03:54on the exact orientation of those winds.
03:57However, it is going to be a much less pleasant feeling as you step outside across north-western
04:03parts of the UK.
04:05Then to explain what's going on for the second half of the week, take a look at the set-up
04:09for the jet stream on Tuesday.
04:10And as you can see, it's fairly regular across the North Atlantic, fairly flat.
04:16And this is the cause of low pressure after low pressure.
04:21But as we go through the next few days, there are subtle changes in the amplification of
04:26that jet stream.
04:27In other words, it becomes more wriggly as it crosses the North Atlantic.
04:31This portion of the jet stream pushes south, whilst the portion over the UK pushes north.
04:36That causes a few things.
04:37One, as I mentioned, it does bring up some warmer weather into the south-east on Friday
04:42and into Saturday, chances of some thunderstorms developing as that happens on Saturday itself.
04:47It also pushes the wettest weather towards the north-west of the UK as we begin the weekend.
04:52But within this trough, this dip of the jet stream, that's going to slowly cross the
04:56UK during the rest of the weekend and the start of next week, potentially bringing some
04:59heavy rain and showers.
05:01However, the net impact of all of that is that we've got this big ridge of the jet stream
05:07to the west of the UK and high-pressure building.
05:10And that ultimately is likely to cross the UK as well as we go through next week.
05:17So there are some signs there of an end to the very wet and windy weather.
05:23An end to the low after low after low setup that we've got at the moment.
05:28And perhaps a drier interlude for the final week of September.
05:32But a long way to go before we get there.
05:35And of course, we'll keep you updated on all the day-to-day detail on our YouTube channel.
05:38Bye-bye.
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