00:00I want to bring in our lead hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva.
00:05Thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather early here.
00:09A couple of things before we get to the statistics that the plane from the National Hurricane Center found a short time ago.
00:16There's also a kind of a, I wouldn't call it a rule, but something you've noticed forecasting hurricanes pertaining to the structure of a storm as it begins to close in on hurricane status.
00:30Yeah, if we start to take a look here at the satellite imagery here, you can notice that the shape of the clouds kind of almost resembles a kidney bean or like a shrimp right around the center of circulation there.
00:43Once it starts to get this kind of like shrimp look to it, typically you're about 12 to 24 hours, I've noticed, away from some really rapid intensification starting.
00:53So this could be a sign, this kind of, the storm kind of has like a shrimp look to it.
00:58This could be a sign that we are about a day away or even less from this really starting to take off.
01:03Now, the hurricane hunters have found winds to hurricane strength north of the center of circulation, Alex.
01:11Yeah, it's really close. Very, very borderline.
01:14They flew through the northern side of the storm, the northeastern side, which is typically the strongest part of a storm that's moving to the west.
01:21And so we're going to have to see if they take those numbers, if they believe them.
01:24You know, they're going to kind of check over those numbers to make sure they're believable.
01:27But yes, there is that opportunity that by 11 o'clock, the next advisory, that we very well may have a hurricane on our hands, if not by early this afternoon.
01:36There's still dry air in the path to the north and west of Aaron, although that dry air is getting less and less.
01:43And, you know, earlier you could see, Alex, there was some dry air on the northern side of the center.
01:49That looks like it's being mixed out.
01:50It certainly is.
01:51And you can see at the very end of the loop there, you can see that green really starting to pop in the center of circulation there.
01:56That is those really cold cloud tops and a lot of moisture right at the center of circulation there.
02:02And what it's going to do here as it strengthens is it's essentially going to create its own environment around it.
02:07And it's going to be able to fend off a lot of that dry air.
02:09It'll essentially push that dry air up and out of the way.
02:13You can see that already starting to form on the northwestern side.
02:16You can see those rain bands basically shoving that dry air out of the way.
02:19And so it will manufacture its own environment.
02:22And then once it does that, then it really can take off.
02:24Now, a couple of days ago, water temperatures were around 76, 77.
02:30And as Aaron has made that track to the west, the water temperatures continue to get warmer and warmer.
02:36I think it's right around 79, 80 degrees right now.
02:39Yeah, and it's just going to keep going up from there.
02:41You can see middle 80s by the time it gets north of the greater Antilles.
02:44This is why we expect rapid intensification.
02:46And this is why we expect this to get up to Category 4 strength as it moves north of the greater Antilles.
02:51And the wind shear, you can take a look here.
02:53Overall, pretty low as it moves into that area.
02:56Maybe a little bit as it's moving northeast of Puerto Rico.
02:59But by that point, I think it's going to have a good internal structure where even if it encounters a little bit of wind shear, it may not matter all that much.
03:06We still expect this to get up to Category 4 strength.
03:09And if you think about it, conditions favorable for development now, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday.
03:16That's four days of conditions being favorable for development here.
03:21And that also argues that this could turn into a pretty big storm, right?
03:26That it spreads out.
03:28Yeah, especially as it moves to the north.
03:30Typically, as storms move to the north, you can see that wind field expand.
03:34Also, we're likely to see at least one or two eyewall replacement cycles as the storm moves to the north, which is typical in these more powerful hurricanes.
03:41So with those eyewall replacement cycles and the storm moving north, we're going to see this wind field greatly expand as it moves towards Bermuda.
03:50Now, how quickly does it turn north?
03:52That is the question.
03:54We've always had this graphic.
03:55Sunday into Monday, how quickly does it turn north?
03:58The faster it does it, the more likely there's no direct impacts.
04:02If it delays, there's more likely there will be direct impacts.
04:05And that's why, Alex, you know, we still think that eventually this gets shoved to the northeast on Wednesday with that dip in the jet stream.
04:13But when you guys were drawing the track, that's why you really diverged with the east and west side right Sunday into Monday.
04:22Yeah, looking at some of the computer guidance, there's still some guidance on the western side of this track.
04:27And the reason for that is it has the storm slow down near the Turks and Caicos.
04:31If the storm slows down a little bit more, that kicker, that trough that's supposed to kick the storm out might actually exit out in front.
04:39And the storm kind of meanders around and stays on the western side of that track.
04:43I don't think that's the most likely scenario.
04:45I think the trough will grab the storm and bring it out to sea.
04:48But there's still that opportunity for the storm to be more on that western side of the cone.
04:53AccuWeather lead hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva.
04:56Alex, thanks for joining us here and breaking it down on AccuWeather early.
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