AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno tracks the development of Tropical Storm Erin. The storm is expected to strengthen into a hurricane late this week. Areas to watch extend from North Carolina to New England.
00:06Number two, we have some dry air and there's a little wind shear, so it hasn't strengthened enough.
00:09Maximum staying winds at 45 miles per hour.
00:11The movement west at 22 miles per hour at the current time.
00:16Now, let's show you the talking points here as we move forward.
00:20Rapid intensification into a major hurricane late this week.
00:25It'll be a hurricane by Thursday and then Friday, Saturday, Sunday.
00:28Then we're going to have some major problems.
00:30Rip currents and damaging surf up and down the eastern seaboard regardless, regardless of whether this makes a landfall along the east coast.
00:40Now, from North Carolina to eastern New England, that's the area to watch for a landfall.
00:45Nobody has been cleared along the east seaboard yet, but that's the area that concerns me the most.
00:51Take a look at the water vapor loop.
00:53Now, you always have to look for ways.
00:55Is there any way that this system can be shredded by dry air and wind shear?
01:00Yes, but it's a very small probability here.
01:03You could see a lot of dry air in the pathway of Aaron.
01:07And, in fact, as I zoom on in, you're going to see that drier air has absolutely made it into the center of circulation.
01:15There it is.
01:16See the little dry air?
01:17Right here.
01:18You see, it's made its way in there.
01:20So that's one reason why it has not strengthened this morning and why it won't strengthen today.
01:25And also, water temperatures are low, 74, 75 degrees.
01:28The other story is, take a look at the wind shear here.
01:30There it is.
01:31Now, it's like the moderate, but it's there.
01:33So that is also inhibiting its development.
01:37However, as we go through time, especially as it busts through this darker purple, this higher wind shear later on Wednesday, it gets into this area.
01:49Look out north of the islands.
01:51If it's intact, and we think it will be, warm water, low wind shear.
01:57The dry air is still around, but I don't think it will stop it enough.
02:00That's why we have this as a major hurricane as we head in the Saturday and Sunday north of the islands.
02:08Now, in every storm, there are forks in the road.
02:12The first fork in the road is going to be Sunday, Monday.
02:16Let me show it to you.
02:17There it is, Sunday at 2 o'clock.
02:18Now, this is where there is, the jury's still out on how it's going to move.
02:23If it takes this more northern track, this is going to significantly lower the risk of a U.S. landfall.
02:31All right?
02:32That would probably eliminate South Carolina and Florida and coastal Georgia.
02:38That would eliminate, you'd be taking it out of it.
02:40You wouldn't be out of it yet in North Carolina because of fork number two in the road.
02:44I'll get to that in a second, but if this takes more of a southern track, then this really does start to increase the risk of a U.S. landfall.
02:52I still think it would probably curve away from Florida, Georgia, but South Carolina, I think you'd have an increased risk, and certainly farther north you would.
03:00That's the first fork in the road.
03:04Number two would be, okay, regardless of where this is, as we get into Tuesday, of course, the farther south, the more likely a landfall.
03:12The next fork in the road is Tuesday into Wednesday because now, all of a sudden, you've got a series of these little jet stream disturbances or troughs coming into the northeast.
03:21How are they going to interact with the storm?
03:23Well, if you have a stronger one and it's farther south, that will then steer this out to sea.
03:28Even if it takes a farther south track, I think it would stay east of Florida, South Carolina.
03:34Not so much North Carolina.
03:35You'd still be in it.
03:36But if this trough is slower, then it really gets problematic for the mid-Atlantic, North Carolina, all the way up in eastern New England.
03:46So as you sum it on up, I want to end with this because I want to give you some idea along the eastern coast what we're dealing with next week.
03:52At this point, and I took your, there's your suggestion.
03:55Oh, my gosh.
03:57I think once you get south of Myrtle Beach down toward Florida, I think it's very unlikely.
04:01We haven't cleared it yet.
04:02It's very unlikely of a landfall or direct impact.
04:06But the farther north, I think it's still possible.
04:09Even if it takes that northern track, you have to worry about that all the way from Atlanta, Canada, down toward the Outer Banks.
04:17If it takes the southern track, then it's even more likely in that area.
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