Final 25% of the hurricane season

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno breaks down the final 25% of the 2025 hurricane season.

Transcript

00:00Hard to believe 75% of the hurricane season is over. We have 25% less. We have to keep an eye

00:07on a tropical wave coming off Africa. The feed brought to you by the AccuWeather Pro site where

00:12you also can be a pro. All right, I want to show you this. This is the hurricane season

00:17throughout the six-month time frame here, although sometimes you can get storms before and after the

00:23season ends, which is from June 1st through November 20th. So we're right around in here.

00:28So that means 75% of the season is over. You still got about 25%. But boy, once you get past

00:36October, you'll notice the chances of development really, really goes down. Look what has happened

00:44so far this season. How about this? Every storm that has developed, except for Barry, has been in the

00:52Atlantic. We have had no storms, nothing developed in the Gulf or also into the Caribbean. And take

00:59a look at this. When you look at the Caribbean, how about this? We don't have anything right now.

01:06In fact, if I was looking at the Caribbean right now, I'd wonder what month we're in. I certainly

01:10wouldn't think it's October as there's not much in the way of clouds. Now, the rest of the Atlantic,

01:14you'll notice. We do have the clouds moving northward here. So nothing right now on the map

01:20is concerning at all. The question is, why is this occurring? I want to show you this. This is the

01:27wind shear product. And for those that follow me and have followed the feed, you know I love this

01:32product. So what you're looking at here, it's color-coded. Where you have the reds and the oranges,

01:38you have wind shear. You start seeing the blues. The lighter the colors, the less wind shear. Now,

01:43just to give you your bearings here, this is Africa. This is the west coast of Africa here.

01:49This is the eastern coast of the United States. And here is Florida. And here is the Gulf. Here is

01:55the Caribbean. Look at all of this. This is this evening. Look at all this wind shear. I mean,

02:01pretty much anything coming off Africa that goes in the Atlantic, it's game, set, match. It will not

02:06reach the United States. It just won't. Now, this is this evening. How about a week from now? Does it

02:10change much? I'm going to give you a little hint. I want you to watch this right in here.

02:15The Caribbean, where you do have some wind shear right now. Here's the Caribbean. You do have some

02:20wind shear right now. Watch how it changes a week from now. Boom. You see this? A lot of lighter colors

02:26here. A lot of blues. A lot of purples. There's not a whole lot. Meanwhile, you continue to have the

02:30wind shear across the Atlantic. So based on that knowledge, I made this graphic earlier today to show you

02:39these waves that come off Africa, what would happen to them moving forward here? So any wave,

02:47and this is the current wind shear, and I showed it to you before, all this dark purple in the Atlantic,

02:52and the light purple is low wind shear. Any wave coming off Africa that takes the northern route,

02:57and basically, I'm going to use this, 15 degrees north. Anything that goes north of 15 degrees north,

03:03there's just no pathway to the United States. It would just diminish, get sheared,

03:08or get pushed away from the U.S. However, any wave that stays south of 15 degrees north,

03:15while there are going to be some challenges for these waves, if they get into the Caribbean,

03:21then you have to worry. Now, even as we go forward, I think there's enough of a dip in the jet stream

03:27off the east coast moving forward, even next week, that any wave in the Caribbean would probably get

03:32pulled northward away from the United States. But I would say if it stays south of 15 degrees north,

03:38there's at least the chance that it could run the gauntlet, come across the Caribbean, and then

03:43make a landfall on the United States. And with that knowledge, I want to show you this. This is our

03:48next tropical wave that we're watching. It's coming off Florida, off the west coast of Africa later this

03:53week. We have a low chance of development with that. So the question is, can this develop

03:58develop into a tropical system? And I think there is a window for that to do so. Now, what I want to

04:06show you now is I was talking about the ProSight, the AccuWeather ProSight, where you can look at the

04:10computer models. I want to show you how two models, I'm going to show you the two main ones, the European

04:14and the American model, what it does for the possibility of development with this. And it is

04:20interesting and a little concerning to me both. So I want to show you what we're looking at here.

04:27This is Saturday, and this is the European model. Let's go to late Saturday night. This is the

04:36tropical wave. You see this little green? It doesn't look like much. There's the west coast

04:40of Africa. There it is. That's the European model. This is the American model. It shows it as well.

04:45You see the little yellows, little greens. That's the tropical wave. Okay, what does it do going

04:50forward? Let's go into Monday. This is Monday. This is the European right in here, and it's south

04:58of 15 degrees north. Remember, we don't have a lot of wind shear. So that's a little concerning to me

05:04because I'm just looking at the pattern. If it escapes this trough in the Atlantic, then it gets

05:10into the Caribbean. Now, I want to show you the American model. It's very interesting. Let's follow

05:16it. I'm going to take you to next Wednesday, the 8th. There's the tropical wave. Look how south it

05:21is. Here's 15 degrees north, pretty far south. That would put it in the low wind shear if that's

05:26right. Now, and it was also, it is far enough south to escape this dip in the jet stream that

05:33it wouldn't get pulled northward. Now, watch what the American model does. Now, I want to show this

05:38year. I don't think it's right. I don't. But watch what it does. There we go. This is Friday. It has

05:44a storm here in the eastern Caribbean, and watch what it does with it. It takes it east. There it is

05:50near Hispaniola. That's Sunday. That's 10 days from now, more than 10 days for now. It's not this

05:56Sunday, but the next Sunday. And you watch what it does with it. It continues to move it, has a landfall

06:02in south Florida on the 14th, and then into the Gulf as we get into the 17th, almost two weeks from

06:10now. Is it right? I don't think so. But what it does tell me is that is the one to watch. And remember,

06:18we've talked about this. The area to keep an eye on moving forward is this zone, and that's the feed.

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