- 4 months ago
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00:00It's in our nature to worry.
00:02Kind of.
00:03I mean, there's always something to worry about.
00:06You believe that stat that everyone always throws out there?
00:10Which one?
00:1085% of what we worry about never happens.
00:1393% of stats are made up on the spot.
00:17Is that true?
00:18I just made that up on the spot.
00:20I mean, this guy just fell off the boat.
00:23No, it could have been part of the 7%.
00:24It's part of the bit.
00:26And every time you do the bit, you throw out a different number.
00:28You know, 81% of all stats are made up on the spot.
00:31Well, that's what I want to track.
00:33How the hell can someone tell me that 85% of what you worry about never happens?
00:37You don't know what I'm worried about.
00:39Fair, and different people worry about different things.
00:43What time is it?
00:44320 is a risky time to say this, but I happen to live with somebody who,
00:48I would say 99% of the things that she worries about doesn't happen,
00:53but she worries about 1,000 different things,
00:55which means about 10 of those things actually do happen.
00:58I got a mom like that.
00:59Yeah.
01:00Yeah.
01:00Mark.
01:01You want to know what happens if there's nothing to worry about?
01:04She worry about the fact that there's nothing to worry about.
01:06Can you help me fix my phone?
01:08She's out there looking for stuff.
01:11Looking for things to worry about.
01:13I know somebody like that.
01:14You know what I mean?
01:15Yeah.
01:15That's that whole deal of like, we've got to be at the dentist.
01:19When's the appointment?
01:20Three.
01:21When are you leaving?
01:22One o'clock.
01:23Why?
01:23Because something could go wrong.
01:25Like, what happens if you get there at 115?
01:29Well, you know, we'll figure it out.
01:31Like, yeah.
01:33But I just, I wonder where you are on that,
01:35because I do think that a little bit right now about the 49ers season,
01:42not all of it.
01:43I'm not going to sit here and blue sky this for you.
01:45They're out there on the market trying to find pass catchers with 10 days
01:50until they're a game and they're like, you?
01:52What about you?
01:53You have a run around, you get in here.
01:56That's all true.
01:57But this hand-wringing about health?
02:00The Niners are complete, like, I couldn't have asked for them to be this healthy
02:04at the start of the season.
02:07Tell me who the big, massive, oh no, he's hurt is.
02:11Who is it?
02:13Well, there really isn't one.
02:15And some people will worry about the fact that you're going to have guys get hurt.
02:19And that's a reality of it.
02:21And two years ago, your main core guys, they didn't get hurt.
02:25Last year, a lot of them got hurt.
02:27So, I usually don't worry about things like that that are out of your control.
02:31Totally out of your control.
02:32So, as a fan, what am I worried about?
02:34I'm a little worried about the wide receiver core.
02:36And having their not maybe be the ability to get open, guys can actually, you know,
02:44separate.
02:45Last year, you were last in separation.
02:46So, I'm worried about the receiving core.
02:49I'm not worried about much else with this team, to be honest.
02:53I like the running backs, even if McCaffrey misses games.
02:56The quarterback, if the quarterback misses some games, Mack Jones, I'm not thrilled,
03:02but he's capable.
03:03It's better than it was last year.
03:04Sure.
03:04Don't you think?
03:05Absolutely.
03:05Yeah, that's what, like, I hear a lot of things where I'm like, all right, you know,
03:10I mean, you might be right, but I don't think that you have a rational worry of that.
03:15And there are narratives that are just flat out untrue.
03:17The Niners are decimated by injuries right now.
03:20They're not.
03:20No, they're not.
03:21Where did that come from?
03:23Yeah, I don't know.
03:24Like, yeah, there have been weeks in camp where, like, oh, he's not available.
03:28Who gives a crap?
03:29Yep.
03:29There's no game this week.
03:31There's no game.
03:32Yes, Brandon Ake's hurt.
03:34We knew that.
03:34Malik Mustafa's hurt.
03:35We knew that.
03:36What else?
03:37Juwan Jennings.
03:38Give me a break.
03:40Not hurt.
03:41Feelings are.
03:43Yeah.
03:44His calf.
03:45He's got a calf.
03:45Okay.
03:46Who's going to know?
03:47Can I throw the, and then we're going to go to the phones.
03:50I, I, this, this dawned on me today.
03:52And it's nobody's fault because it's a little intricate based on the way the conversation
03:56all went yesterday.
03:57But a lot of you might have been with us or heard what John Lynch had to say, right?
04:01Remember all the stuff.
04:02Here's the update on Jennings.
04:03So Juwan's still working through his, his calf issue, uh, making progress.
04:08We're kind of like everyone else, um, hopeful, but not sure, you know, on week one and, um,
04:13we'll proceed as, uh, as such.
04:15And so we're working to get the, uh, the best mix out there.
04:19We added a piece today and, um, you know, in MVS, Marquez, uh, Valdez, Scantling and,
04:26uh, thrilled to have him part of it.
04:27And, uh, you know, we move forward.
04:29Eric Branch, Johnny on the spot goes, okay, Johnny, okay, Juwan's hurt, but we can assume
04:36that once he's healthy, he's playing, right?
04:40Well, there's a lot that goes into that, Eric.
04:41You know, ideally everybody has a training camp.
04:44Everyone's out there.
04:45You know, that's, that's a perfect world, but, um, you know, he's been putting in work
04:50to the side and, and we'll have to make that judgment when the time comes.
04:54You know, the other thing is both things can be true.
04:56You know, he wants a new contract and he's got our calf.
04:58So I think people want to assume one or the other.
05:01Both things can be true.
05:02Okay.
05:03You want to know what I want to ask him now?
05:05I didn't think of it until today, but if we're going to go down this road, John, and
05:09you're going to tell us that you still have a calf injury for Juwan and it is lingering
05:14to the point where five days ago, Kyle Shanahan's like, he'll be ready by week one.
05:18And now you don't know.
05:20And this thing has been going on and on and on for the entire month of August.
05:25Wouldn't that concern you?
05:28About signing a player to a new contract.
05:32If he has a calf injury that you can't figure out similar to like, I mean, if this thing's
05:37a real injury, we're getting to McCaffreyville.
05:39It's time to do some, we need to do some PRP, man.
05:42We need to send him to Germany and get this mystery figured out.
05:46So the question would have been, Hey, John, he wants a new contract.
05:51Is that discussion being affected by this lingering mysterious injury?
05:56That's a great, that's a great, uh, that's a great question.
05:59I would have loved to hear John work his way through that answer.
06:04I don't know what he would have said.
06:06He probably would have said, I'm not going to, you know, I'm not going to answer that.
06:10I'm not going to give you privileged details about the negotiation, the conversations we're
06:14having.
06:15It's really none of your business, Mark.
06:16Well, no, it is actually.
06:18We're covering the 49ers here, John.
06:19And I mean, like, are you concerned?
06:22You, I would think you'd be concerned.
06:24This injury won't go away.
06:27And I know calves are tricky, tricky, very certain point.
06:31They're also concerning.
06:32Aren't they very concerning.
06:34And is it such a concern that it's affecting the contract negotiations?
06:39Have you backed away from a deal because you're so concerned about the calf or is the calf so
06:45minor that it has no bearing on what you're trying to do?
06:47Or are you just like, we're not talking about a contract under any circumstance, health or
06:52not?
06:53We're not doing that.
06:53Yeah.
06:54Like I, I would, I would have loved that answer, but, um, you know, we weren't there.
06:58Uh, let's go to Dave in Fresno.
07:00Hi, Dave.
07:00Thank you for calling Willie and Debbie.
07:03Hello.
07:04Good afternoon, gentlemen.
07:05Um, Hey, you know, you posed a question.
07:09You know, if there's any concerns, if you're not a fan, uh, you kind of, uh, discuss the
07:14injury aspect of it.
07:15But yeah, I mean, for me, there's a lot of caveat, uh, you know, the caveat of your 37
07:21year old left tackle.
07:23Can you, can you stay upright for a majority of the season, not the full season?
07:26Your 29 year old running back who's older and who's coming off an injury of his own,
07:30you know, you're depending on him.
07:32Is your quarterback, is he more 20, 20, 23 or 20, 24?
07:36I guess we'll find out your kicker.
07:38Who's going through whatever he's going through.
07:41Is he, is he okay between the ears?
07:43That's, uh, these rookies that we're depending on, are they going to, how fast are they going
07:48to, you know, get up to speed here?
07:50Uh, just a lot of caveats.
07:52And right now they're just a team of, uh, filled with more questions and answers in my opinion.
07:59And, you know, we still got to play the game.
08:01Maybe we, we answer those questions when we get on the field.
08:04But right now, I, I, me, I don't feel really confident, uh, you know, going into this season.
08:11Uh, a lot of things need to go our way.
08:13And it's just the reality of the situation we are in.
08:16It's not to say that we can't, uh, achieve our ultimate goal, which is obviously the Super Bowl.
08:21But a lot of things have to go our way.
08:23And when you're a team in that position, uh, you can get nervous.
08:27So, you know, I'm hoping for the best, but yeah, there are legitimate concerns and a lot of it's out of our control.
08:35But hopefully, uh, like I said, when they start playing the games and then also to Brandon Ayuk, you know,
08:41everyone says he's going to come back healthy, but we went through this last year with Greenlaw and C&C.
08:46Oh, when those, when we get those guys back and everything will be just fine.
08:49We don't know until they actually come back and get on the field.
08:52So again, those are, you know, my concerns and those are the caveats that you got to worry about.
08:58That's fair.
08:58I mean, concerns and caveats.
09:00You're, you're always going to have concerns about players you've never seen before, rookies and guys who are being thrust into the starting lineup.
09:08And, you know, Aaron Banks no longer at guard.
09:10And so you're going to have new players over there and you hope that your old line is better.
09:14For me, there's different things as to concerns as opposed to real worries.
09:20Like I'm, you could be worried about the kicker.
09:22And I think you are actually probably concerned about the kicker.
09:26But for me and Jake Moody in particular, I'm not that worried because I do know if he's bad, they're going to make a move.
09:34It's not like they're going to stick with him all year because he was a third round pick.
09:38And okay, he's four for nine on field goals and he missed a game winner.
09:42No, we're not keeping him just because he was a third round pick.
09:45I do.
09:46I do know that.
09:47So am I worried for Jake Moody?
09:50Yeah, I'm worried for the young man because if he gets replaced, that's him in his life.
09:56But for me as a Niner fan, if you replace the kicker, you're probably going to find somebody who's not worse.
10:01So I'm not worried about it.
10:02Okay.
10:02I mean, I guess at a certain point we start playing with different verbiage, right?
10:07Like, am I, of course, if it's not, if you're not good, they're going to replace him.
10:11Some people believe, well, he's already actually given you that answer and you haven't replaced him.
10:17That's some people's opinions, right?
10:19And so, like, look, I've gotten to a point where, okay, I accept a difference of opinion in this particular case.
10:26But the 49ers see something in Jake Moody that at this point, I don't.
10:31They might be right.
10:32And I very much hope they are.
10:35If they're wrong, yes, they'll make a move.
10:38Then there's also the other stuff.
10:40Let me spotlight one thing that Dave pointed out.
10:43And so we concoct these questions and sometimes we're right and then sometimes I think it's just a product of our perceptions.
10:52And he says one of his concerns is if Brock Purdy is 2023 Brock or 2024 Brock.
11:00And before I say anything, get everybody all hot and bothered, let me just go live to Dan Dibley and say,
11:06Hey, Dan, what would Greg Cosell say to Dave's concern about whether or not Brock Purdy is 23 Brock or 24 Brock?
11:16What would Greg say?
11:17Greg would say he's probably a combination of the two.
11:20But before you go disparaging 2024 Brock, you look at the dropbacks as I have.
11:27I'm Greg Cosell and I thank you.
11:29I looked at every one of his dropbacks and what I saw was a quarterback who was decisive.
11:34At times he fled the pocket too early.
11:37But when given some time, he was able to make the throws necessary.
11:41And if you want to go to the Aaron Schatzes of the world, who is the creator of DVOA and FTN Fantasy and all the rest of it,
11:50the numbers for Brock Purdy on yards per attempt, yards per dropback, expected points added and all the rest.
11:57He was top five, top seven in every one of those categories.
12:01So I wouldn't mind if he was 2024 Brock Purdy.
12:04There you go.
12:05There you go.
12:06I mean, 2023 Brock Purdy was a 97.5 out of 100.
12:13Yep.
12:13The year he had.
12:142024 Brock was probably an 85 out of 100.
12:18At least.
12:18Yeah, I'm going to say 85.
12:20And Greg is right.
12:21And we've heard this from Brock himself.
12:23He, at times, was trying to do too much.
12:25At times, he fled the pocket too early because, you know, the pass rush was coming.
12:31And instead of hanging in that extra second and letting the play develop, he was, you know, going rogue and running around back there and doing things out of character.
12:39So even if you give him an 85 last year, you take an 85 out of 100.
12:44You can win with it.
12:45If you have a better defense and more around him, you absolutely can win with that.
12:49You can win with it.
12:49But, like, I sort of accept that from Brock Purdy in terms of what it was we saw that maybe we didn't like last year and how we processed it.
12:59And I'm not going to ask anyone, you, me, or anyone listening to this show, to be able to, like, pull this apart the way a Greg Cosell or a Brian Baldinger tape watcher does.
13:09Because there's so many things happening on a football field.
13:12And we're just sitting there with nacho cheese on our lap going, my fantasy team dropped by two.
13:17Like, and that's all I want us to do.
13:20We've earned that.
13:22We get to Sunday.
13:23Just be stupid and turn the TV on.
13:25That's all I do.
13:27So we've earned that, and that's fine.
13:30But when we watch Brock drop back and throw a pick, we'll go, oh, dummy, where's 23 Brock?
13:39And what Brock has basically stated is he, I think, agreed with a lot of you.
13:45Which is that, oh, this is different.
13:48I don't have Christian McCaffrey.
13:50I don't have Brandon Iyuk.
13:52This is different.
13:54The world wants me to step up and be a dog.
13:57It's time for me to show everybody that I put the team on my back and not be a game.
14:02So he lets you all get to him.
14:04And he started trying to do Brett Farvey and things, which is huck that ball through a garden hose or take off and use his legs maybe earlier than he needed to.
14:16And did that lead to what looked like a still good but not a great year?
14:24I kind of accept that.
14:26And what Brock has said I spent all offseason doing, it's almost more mental than physical, is, hey, stupid, we have a good team.
14:35I have a good coach.
14:36These are good play calls.
14:38Keep it simple.
14:40Stupid.
14:40Drop back.
14:41Hit the spot.
14:43Don't try to make too much happen.
14:45We can outlast this opponent if we just do those things.
14:49I think that's his focus this year.
14:51I think it's a very, very good focus.
14:53But you don't need to worry about whether or not Brock Purdy's good.
14:56Brock Purdy's good.
14:57He's good enough.
14:58And whether or not he's great or elite or tier one or all the rest of that nonsense, do you have a quarterback who can make the plays necessary to win football games?
15:07Yes.
15:08And you've seen it before.
15:09Last year, that was not the case.
15:11And it was a total system-wide breakdown.
15:14This team relies on complementary football more than almost any other team out there in that you need a good defense.
15:21To keep your offense able to run the ball, give your offense a lead, you're not built to come from behind.
15:27And so last year, when you had a defense that couldn't get off the field, it did put undue pressure on the offense.
15:33I wonder about the word expectations, though.
15:35Like, I'm fully on board with everybody who says expectations this year are not as high as they were last year.
15:44I think that's just natural.
15:46They were in the Super Bowl.
15:48They almost won the Super Bowl.
15:49Well, why wouldn't expectations be through the roof?
15:53But should they be that different, knowing what we know now?
15:57Can we explore that a little bit?
16:00Yeah.
16:00Should the expectations be that different?
16:04In other words, let me ask this question.
16:06I do think there are some answers, but I wonder what everyone thinks.
16:10Where are the 49ers markedly worse this year than they were last year?
16:19Where?
16:20Probably the receiver.
16:21The receiver room would be markedly worse.
16:24I mean, running back, no offensive line.
16:27I would argue.
16:28We'll see.
16:29Jordan Mason, I mean, I guess we didn't know how good he would be, and he turned out to be great.
16:34Can Brian Robinson be Jordan Mason?
16:36You would figure.
16:36No, but you have McCaffrey this year, and you didn't last year.
16:39Right.
16:39I thought you were saying going into the year.
16:41No, I mean, like, go ahead and grab what we know.
16:44What we know now.
16:46Like, sure, your expectations last year were what they were, but then it played out, and
16:51we have all that information.
16:53Now blend that with what we think we know.
16:56Obviously, there's a journey that's about to unfold, and there could be all kinds of things
17:00around the corner, but I want to know that.
17:03Like, where are the spots that you think the 49ers this year are worse than what we know
17:10they were last year?
17:12I'll give you an example.
17:13I hear a lot of people go, oh, they're so young on defense.
17:15Right?
17:16Well, they were terrible last year on defense.
17:17Right.
17:18So the only thing that they could be is even.
17:20The worst thing that could happen is that the 49ers are as bad this year.
17:24They could be worse.
17:25Not much.
17:26Because they were not bottom of the barrel.
17:27I mean, they were 28th.
17:29On run defense, they were.
17:31Right.
17:31But overall defense, I think points allowed, they were 28th, so there is a little room
17:35for them to be worse, but to your point, yeah, I don't think they could be worse.
17:39Could the special teams be worse?
17:42I don't.
17:42Probably not.
17:43If the kicker's worse, you're getting a new kicker.
17:45Yeah.
17:45You already have a new punter, and you got a new long snapper, and you have a new special
17:50teams coach, so you would expect that to be better.
17:52The offense was slightly better than mediocre last year, so can the offense be better?
17:58Well, you would hope so.
17:59You'd hope.
17:59Yeah.
18:00I mean, I'm with you.
18:01The wide receiver room in the moment is like, oh, that looks a little thin, obviously.
18:08However, a bunch of different things can happen as this unfolds.
18:12I don't know what's going to happen with Juwan.
18:14I do know that if this all goes the way we think it's going to go, you're going to acquire
18:19Demarcus Robinson for week four.
18:21You're going to probably acquire Brandon Ayuk at some point.
18:25Also, Ricky Pearsall starts the year as a much bigger part of all of this.
18:30Do you think he's going to be good?
18:31Do you think he's not going to be good?
18:33Everybody gets their own opinion there.
18:34I certainly think he's going to be good, but to me, that's almost like a little bit
18:38of an upgrade of one position.
18:40You didn't really have him, certainly not at the start of the year last year, but all
18:44by that, the wide receiver position, at least the first month of the season, is a downgrade
18:50from where you started last year.
18:53Give me the other position.
18:55I don't see it.
18:56Yeah, not really.
18:57I don't see any other position on the field that this year stocks up as potentially worse
19:04than what we know happened last year.
19:07Maybe safety.
19:08I mean, if you want to look at the safety spot, because you've got a little still unsettled
19:12on who those guys are going to be.
19:14And, you know, at this point last year, you felt better about who you had coming back,
19:18I think, than you do right now.
19:20But were they good?
19:21It turns out they weren't great.
19:22Yeah, that's like, so again, it's like, yeah, let's take the questions that you're worried
19:27about.
19:27You go, okay, what if it doesn't go well?
19:29Well, then you're going to get exactly what you had last year.
19:32So it's not going to be worse.
19:33Probably not, yeah.
19:34I mean, Jair Brown was not very good.
19:35I didn't like his year last year at all.
19:37Did you?
19:38I'm not in particular, no.
19:39But, you know, he's in a spot now where I don't think that the safeties that you have
19:45are necessarily proven commodities.
19:47So can they be better just because you've got Robert Sala?
19:50That would be my expectation, yeah.
19:51Yeah, like, Sala's presence alone, to me, says this year's defense is going to rate
19:58better than last year's defense, even if you've got some pops out there.
20:01Yeah, it's interesting as you look at this year and expectations and how some people are
20:07thinking that you shouldn't have the same high hopes.
20:10Last year, they were the second favorite to win the Super Bowl.
20:14They were plus 600.
20:15Their over-under for wins was 11 and a half.
20:18This year, their over-under is 10 and a half.
20:20And I know the schedule this year is easier, but as far as expectations and the betting
20:26markets, they expected them last year to be 11 or 12 wins.
20:30They weren't.
20:31Okay, 6 and 11.
20:32Boy, they must plummet.
20:33They're down one win in the markets.
20:36So now the markets are looking at it and saying, you should win 10 or 11.
20:39Last year, it was 11 or 12.
20:41So even after everything we went through, roster turnover, two coordinators out, new ones in,
20:47an old guy comes back, and all those changes.
20:50Is it a rebuild?
20:52No.
20:52It's just a reload.
20:54It's a reload, and we expect you to win 10 or 11.
20:56Mike Florio was on the morning show.
20:58Here's what he said about expectations.
21:02Things set up well this year for the 49ers.
21:04Number one, the expectations are lower than they've been, probably since 2021, the year
21:10after they most recently had a season that was derailed by injury after injury.
21:16And the schedule is much more favorable this year.
21:19Outside of the division, all four teams of the AFC South, all four teams of the NFC South,
21:24and when you compare Rams' first-place schedule to 49ers' fourth-place schedule, there's three
21:30games where there's that deviation, and that's the benefit you get from finishing in fourth
21:35place.
21:35Three of your games are, in theory, unless those other fourth-place teams from last year
21:41are a lot better, those are easier games than what the defending champion has to face.
21:45And that alone, where the margins are so tight, the playoff spots come down to a win here,
21:52a loss there, the division title can go all the way down to the wire.
21:56Those things benefit the 49ers if they can be healthy, and if they can stay healthy.
22:03Sure, there you go, health.
22:05The big if every time.
22:06Well, I mean, you get to throw that on the back end of every NFL team out there.
22:10Every single one of them.
22:12And I get it that Niner fans, we have the right to be a little triggered by that, because
22:16seemingly, we're often one of the most injured groups in the league.
22:22But outside of that, you can tag that on the end of every single NFL team.
22:28No doubt.
22:28And, you know, Mike Florio is kind of right about expectations.
22:32They're still high, and you have to go back to 2019.
22:34The last time the 49er preseason win total over-under was not double digits.
22:42And in that year, their over-under was eight wins.
22:45They went 13-3 in that season.
22:48And every year since that, it's been 10-1⁄2 or 11-1⁄2.
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