AccuWeather's Jon Porter monitors a tropical rainstorm in the Atlantic Ocean. It's projected to strengthen into the next named storm, Gabrielle, while churning towards the Caribbean Islands.
00:00Yesterday, we made the decision in the afternoon. In fact, we almost did it in the morning here, but we made a decision that the tropical wave that we believe is going to become a storm. The decision was made. Hey, listen. Yes, National Hurricane Center does not have a track out, doesn't even have this as a storm till the weekend, but we feel pretty confident on where this is going. So we decided to issue an eye path and we want to make people understand why we do that.
00:29So far in advance, we made that decision, Bernie, because we have many people who rely on us across the Caribbean for hurricane forecasts. And we want to both people and businesses and we want people to be safer and best prepared, more advanced notice that we can provide. That's very valuable to people. That's why we're the only source that is the only known source that has issued a track for this particular storm threat. And again, as you mentioned, this can be slow to develop, but can become a hurricane as it approaches the islands. And we want people to be best prepared.
00:59All right. And notice the timing. We're talking about almost a week from now. All right. Let's get into the decision on why we did what we did. There's the area of rain and thunderstorms here. You can see it's circled. It's about 35, 37 degrees west. The key is, though, John, it's pretty far south. Number one. Now, anytime we're forecasting a tropical system, you have to look at all ingredients.
01:25Here's the one ingredient that would argue you have to be careful that that it may not develop into a strong system.
01:35There's a lot of dry air here, Bernie. We see this on the water vapor satellite loop, and we're looking at that dry air here in areas of orange and yellow.
01:44And that when a storm is in its early stages trying to organize, if it entrains that dry air, that can slow the development of the thunderstorms and slow the organization.
01:56It certainly is getting dry air infused into it. And that's why it's struggling to have a concentric area of thunderstorms at the moment that's well organized.
02:05And that's going to likely be why this is going to be slower to develop as it tracks to the west.
02:11However, the one thing we were talking with Alex De Silva this morning, and he made this point, and I agree with him.
02:16If there is low wind shear, oftentimes these systems will try to develop, and then it could create its own environment for which it's going to thrive.
02:25As long as this stays south of 20 degrees north, which is the line north of Puerto Rico, which is this well south, there is low wind shear right in the next week.
02:35Right. This should be a very favorable zone here, this entire area that it's going to be traversing through for intensification.
02:43And that's why we made the decision we did to issue a track forecast along with impacts for this storm.
02:50Now, key is, if that dry air doesn't stop it, then we're going to be talking about a hurricane.
02:56Now, a lot of debate, John, yesterday afternoon and this morning on how strong this can get back to our eye path,
03:06because there is a concern that this dry air could really limit the development.
03:11On the other hand, the wind shear is low.
03:14We decided to go with the Category 2 hurricane, but again, there's a way out of this, that this dry air really tamps down on development.
03:23That's a very important point.
03:24If the dry air does end up winning out, then this may remain a tropical storm or a tropical rainstorm as it approaches the islands,
03:31which still could have dangerous impacts.
03:33That's why we're highlighting it.
03:35But if that dry air backs off, look out, we're going to be dealing with at least a Category 2 hurricane as it approaches the islands.
03:41Our message is in the Lesser Antilles, you have to be prepared.
03:43Yep, you have impacts coming late next week.
03:47AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist John Porter.
03:50John, thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.
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