00:00Based on this northwest turn, we could actually clear areas of direct impacts.
00:06It's also important, as you mentioned, Bernie, to say where the storm direct impacts are not going to occur.
00:11So from Charleston, South Carolina, south through all of Florida,
00:15and the Gulf Coast cleared of direct rain and wind impacts from Aaron.
00:19So we want people to be aware of that in those areas, of course, further north.
00:23We still have concerns.
00:24We still have some concerns farther north.
00:26Now, because of the track, the next areas that may get cleared are parts of the mid-Atlantic and northeast from rain and wind.
00:33We're not there just when.
00:35All right, we just finished map discussion, John.
00:38And what's very concerning to us, not only the fact that the eye is getting better organized here,
00:44and that's why we think the wind intensity is going to be raised, but the west movement continues.
00:51This occurred all weekend.
00:52You and I have been watching this all weekend and talking about it, Bernie.
00:55The fact is that this storm has had trouble gaining latitude, moving north.
01:00It has had a tendency to move more west than north, and that's once again doing that this morning
01:06as it's organizing better once again and intensifying.
01:09It appears as though what's going on, and this happened all weekend,
01:12this upper high, the Bermuda High, has been strong, and it continues to push it to the west.
01:17And when you look at atmospheric profiles around, Aaron, we were just looking with that with Aaron De Silva.
01:24You found something very interesting.
01:26He did.
01:26We were looking at the winds at about 45,000 feet near the storm.
01:31And those winds are actually coming in from the north and from the east.
01:35And that's actually sort of against the storm's motion.
01:39So, again, that's why there's been more of a westerly component.
01:42This ridge of high pressure has been stronger, been further west.
01:45And this dip in the jet stream, this is what we were talking about last week, it has not been as deep.
01:50And so that means the storm continues to go to the west for now.
01:53Here's 75 degrees west, here's 74.
01:56We're thinking it may get as far west as 75 degrees west as we get into Tuesday and then Wednesday
02:03and then the next fork in the road we talked about this.
02:06It's that dip in the jet stream.
02:07Now, this is the American model.
02:09I will say this has been the worst of all of the modeling here.
02:13But it does show this dip in the jet stream.
02:15Now, John, if it's this strong and it gets all the way down into northern Virginia.
02:19This is rocketing out.
02:20It's an east-northeast and it's 250, maybe even 300 miles east of the Outer Banks.
02:27But, John, if it's delayed, we have a problem.
02:29That's correct.
02:29And it's all going to come down to small details in this dip in the jet stream across the Great Lakes.
02:34That feature is now over the Intermountain West.
02:36You and I were just looking at it.
02:38If this dip is a little bit slower and a little bit more pronounced,
02:42then that allows the storm motion to get a little bit closer to the coast.
02:46Now, we still don't expect there to be a landfall, Bernie.
02:49But the further west the storm gets, that means there can be greater wind, storm surge impacts in particular,
02:56and even additional rainfall right along the Outer Banks,
02:59which is why we're so concerned about North Carolina 12 and those kinds of issues there.
03:03Are we changing any of the track?
03:05This is the latest.
03:06We just had map discussion.
03:07What was the decision with this exact track?
03:09No, our team of hurricane experts met.
03:11We're going to hold this track as it is and notice that that storm can get further west.
03:17And that's where the concerns could be about increasing the impacts along the North Carolina coastline,
03:22especially as it relates to the Outer Banks.
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