00:00Joining me right now is AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.
00:04We're going to break things down.
00:05And you know, John, right when you look at the satellite picture,
00:08you can see this is getting better organized.
00:09We were talking with Alex Da Silva earlier.
00:12This is going to be taking the 60 miles per hour,
00:14but you're starting to get that S-band shape, right?
00:17And that's an indication that things are getting better organized around Aaron.
00:21Correct.
00:22You can also see that the thunderstorms in these yellows and reds
00:27are starting to become more consolidated around the entire periphery of the storm.
00:32So that's, again, another indication that this is on the way to some significant intensification.
00:38And it's slowing down.
00:39Yesterday at this point, it was in the 20s, now it's 17.
00:42What does that tell us?
00:43The wind shear is beginning to lessen.
00:46What I find scary, John, is that where you take Aaron is now.
00:50Look where it's going in that area north of the islands.
00:54And notice what we have on our key here.
00:56That's where the weakest wind shear is.
00:58And remember, what is wind shear?
00:59That's changing wind speed and direction as you go from the ground up through the atmosphere.
01:04And so when there's more wind shear, that can disrupt a storm's circulation.
01:08Less wind shear, which is exactly where it's headed,
01:11that's an area, especially with warm water, where it's favored for intensification.
01:15Now, John, you know I love history, and I know you agree with me on this graphic.
01:19It provides value.
01:20And here's where it provides value.
01:22Yesterday, when we looked at where Aaron was and where storms have tracked in that area during the month of August and September,
01:31there wasn't a single track, not one track coming into Florida.
01:36But Aaron's not gained any north latitude here.
01:40So history says Florida is still not ruled out.
01:45That's right.
01:45Aaron is down at this particular location.
01:48This is the U.S. East Coast.
01:50Florida in through here.
01:51North Carolina in through here, right along the coast.
01:54And so you can see that there are some tracks near Aaron's current location that do go back toward Florida,
02:02which is why we've not issued an all-clear anywhere yet for direct rain and wind impacts from Aaron,
02:07because while most of these tracks do what we call recurve,
02:11which is they move back, the storms end up moving out to sea east of the Carolinas,
02:17there still are some tracks that get back to the East Coast,
02:20and that's why we continue to be monitoring this very vigilantly.
02:23John, I did the math.
02:24Current and now, it's about 10% go toward have impacts along the East Coast.
02:30But here's the thing.
02:31When you look at the historical tracks, a lot of the storms start taking a north-northwest track very soon.
02:38The longer Aaron doesn't do that, the more concerned we get.
02:44Now, we've been talking about this as well.
02:47Really, the fork in the road, the big fork in the road is Sunday in the Monday.
02:52That's the time period when the upper-level flow across this part of the Atlantic Ocean and northward
03:00should enable Aaron to take a more northern course.
03:04And once that occurs, that's when the risk for Florida,
03:07we would feel a lot more comfortable about reducing the risk greatly for Florida up toward South Carolina.
03:12Still got to watch that North Carolina northbound, especially North Carolina.
03:16But that torn to the north and the timing of it is going to be very critical.
03:21The second fork in the road is Wednesday, John.
03:23Now, it appears that there's enough of a dip in the jet stream in the northeast by Wednesday
03:32to start turning this away from the United States.
03:35You, however, do have a little bit of a concern during this time frame.
03:39We do because the way in which this dip in the jet stream sets up,
03:43the timing of it and just how deep it is is going to be really critical.
03:47Because if it sets up in this manner, then it can actually act as a kicker
03:50and cause the storm to be directed east.
03:53So there would be limited risk of rain or wind impacts along the east coast.
03:58However, if this little jet stream disturbance is a little bit shaped a little bit differently
04:03or its timing is a little bit different, then that can actually draw the storm closer.
04:07That's why we still have this concern about the eventual impact risk here along the east coast.
04:14And, in fact, in the last 24 hours, some of these different computer models,
04:17and these are just a sampling of some of the many computer models.
04:20We look at 190 different forecast models here at AccuWeather.
04:23Some of them have tracks further to the west, closer to the North Carolina coast,
04:28which is exactly what AccuWeather hurricane experts have been concerned about.
04:31Okay, John, what's the change in the wind of the eyepath here?
04:37I understand map discussion has just ended.
04:40What are we going to be changing with this?
04:42We're just going to be making some small adjustments.
04:44Our team is doing this now to bring the storm track a little bit ever so closer to the south and west here.
04:50So a bit of a closer approach to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands can increase rain and wind impacts there.
04:55And we're also going to bring the edge of our window here right to the North Carolina coast.
05:01And remember, our meteorologists are specifically drawing the left and right sides of our window of movement here
05:06because these are an indication of how far west or east we think the storm could be located.
05:11So that means that, again, that's why we've been talking about the concerns along especially the North Carolina coastline.
05:16We're going to be bringing that window of movement just a little bit further to the west there.
05:20John, we're going to hold this number for now.
05:22We are.
05:23Given history, but remember, history says a 90% chance of no impacts.
05:30That's why we're going 70 now.
05:32We may have to take that down of no direct impacts.
05:36We may if there continues to be concerns about the storm being closer to the coast.
05:40But, again, that 70% chance that there's not rain or wind impacts along the east coast.
05:45There's certainly going to be big surf and rip currents, as we talked about.
05:48But here's the place that we've got to watch, especially the North Carolina coastline, where it sticks out there.
05:54That's where we have a medium risk.
05:55And that medium risk is a 30% risk of direct rain and wind impacts,
06:00the way AccuWeather hurricane experts exclusively assess that right now.
06:04Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter, thanks for breaking it down, John.
06:07Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter, thanks for getting started.
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