AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno and Jon Porter monitor the Atlantic, where there are two storms. A tropical storm threat could bring potentially life-threatening flooding to the Carolinas early next week.
00:00So map discussion. What are we doing with map discussion? It's just not models. It's just not data.
00:05It are those things, but there's a human element to it as well.
00:09Well, dozens of AccuWeather experts, our hurricane experts, decades and decades of experience,
00:16all working for our AccuWeather customers so that people can stay safer and best informed.
00:21That's what we do here. We're very passionate about that.
00:23Our team just looked over all the latest data, poured over it all.
00:27Bernie, between commercial breaks, you were out there talking with us as well.
00:31And in particular, we're watching some of the recon data from the hurricane hunters that are in the storm right now.
00:37They're flying right now on the north coast of Hispaniola, a Dominican Republican over toward Haiti right now,
00:45and getting more information about the status of our latest tropical rainstorm, Bernie.
00:49And there it is. And by the way, there's Hurricane Umberto. That's going to complicate things.
00:54Now, John, it was about a week ago we were concerned that this tropical wave would be able to make it through the Atlantic
01:01and it would get into the northwest Caribbean.
01:03We weren't off by much. We think it's going to be in the southwest Atlantic.
01:07But when we look at that satellite, everything going north, and that gives us a key of where we think this is going to go.
01:13We sort of see that path, atmospheric path that's being carved out by the steering-level winds
01:18from parts of the Caribbean up toward the southeastern United States, especially the Carolina coast.
01:24And that's why we're concerned that a tropical storm can develop near the Bahamas this weekend and then be drawn north.
01:30Now, have we found a low-level center yet?
01:32Not yet.
01:32That's the key.
01:33That's the key thing. We're watching the latest radar and satellite trends, also the data from the hurricane hunters.
01:39We think that that's going to become more apparent in the coming hours, likely just north of Hispaniola, perhaps by the Turks and Caicos.
01:49And that will be the first signs that the rainstorm is continuing to intensify.
01:53Now, we'd like to give you some idea. We're five days away, so here's a little timeline.
01:57We drew this yesterday. We think it's still applicable, showing how the track is going to be moving here over the next few days.
02:07Yeah, that's right, and we're the only known source that has this type of graphic to help keep people best informed and aware of what's going to happen.
02:13Again, we expect that tropical storm to develop in the Bahamas this weekend.
02:18And then, look, there's two options there after burning.
02:20Either the storm is going to be drawn out to sea, limiting the risk for rain, wind, and storm surge impacts along the southeast U.S. coastline,
02:29or it could be drawn quickly right up toward the Carolinas by perhaps Monday night.
02:35And that would be a big concern because of damaging winds, storm surge, and also very heavy rainfall.
02:42Now, one may ask why the different tracks here.
02:45Well, it's complicated here because, I'll tell you what, there's Humberto south of the high across Bermuda.
02:52If you just forget that for a second.
02:53The wind flow around the high-pressure system near Bermuda and the upper low in the Appalachians would guide this into the Carolinas.
03:02And it would be an easier forecast in that case, right.
03:06But we do have Humberto, and I called it this morning, I think I'm the only one that said this, a meteorological tug-of-war.
03:14Let's talk about how the upper low and Humberto would influence the movement.
03:21Well, Humberto, if it gets further to the west, actually may have the impact of drawing the storm out to sea quicker
03:29and limiting the risk for direct impacts along the southeast coast.
03:32Now, the other factor is that upper low, and that one, that's a concerning setup.
03:37Because oftentimes tropical storms can be drawn toward those upper lows,
03:42and then the steering winds are light so they don't move very fast.
03:46And when that happens, we get concerned about heavy rain over the same areas and a major flooding threat.
03:52And that's why we're concerned about that across parts of the southeast from the southern Appalachians to the coast, perhaps, early next week.
03:59There's another concern, too.
04:00When we talked about this, I was talking this with Alex De Silva and Alec Duffers, two of our hurricane experts,
04:05that upper low can also ventilate this system as it moves toward the Carolinas.
04:11And what do we mean by that?
04:12As it comes toward the Carolinas, if it continues to move, it could strengthen as well.
04:18You add it all up.
04:19Listen, this could go out the sea.
04:21There could be a mix where it comes to the coast and stall.
04:24But we're less than five days away of a potential landfall.
04:27So we think it's important to give you some actionable language to start preparing for.
04:33Yeah, we want people, particularly in the Carolinas, to be starting to prepare now because there could be a landfalling storm Monday night into Wednesday.
04:41If the storm slows down near the coast or inland, there will be the potential for a life-threatening flooding event that could be very serious, obviously, in that type of situation.
04:52And there will be rough seas and rip currents along much of the U.S. east coast here next week, regardless of the specific path.
05:00So lots to follow.
05:02Stay with us.
05:03There's a lot of uncertainty, more uncertainty than what's typical in this forecast.
05:06So stay tuned to us here on the AccuWeather Network.
05:09AccuWeather.com and the free AccuWeather app will keep you informed here over the coming days.
05:12All right.
05:13Very difficult forecast, but we have the experts to make that forecast and give you the information you need.
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