In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno analyzes weather models tracking a developing storm in the Atlantic that could impact the coasts of the Carolinas and Virginia later this week and into the weekend.
00:00And we're talking about a hybrid howler off the Carolina coast as we go through this weekend.
00:06That's coming up on the feed, but of course, we have to keep an eye out on what will likely be a tropical storm later today as we're tracking this tropical wave.
00:15Remember, it came off Africa last Friday.
00:17We've been pointing to this for the last several days that this is going to end up being our next storm, and you can see it right now.
00:26Listen, there's no center of circulation with this yet.
00:29So it's probably not going to be a storm until later today, but we've already have an eye path with this system.
00:37You can see it.
00:37There it is as it tracks to the north and then should give a glancing blow to the northern Leeward Islands here as we move into Thursday night and then a curve away from Bermuda.
00:51And as we talked about, there was never really a pathway for this storm.
00:55The only chance was if it stayed well south of 15, got into the Caribbean, then maybe.
01:01But even if it did, you're going to see a big dip in the jet stream later this week.
01:06So even if it came into the Caribbean, it was not coming to the United States here.
01:10So I want to show you that dip in the jet stream coming as we head toward the end of the week because that's going to have a huge impact in the tropics.
01:19Let me show it to you right now.
01:21Here's the upper level pattern this week.
01:23Here's a little dip in the jet stream.
01:24It's not necessarily this.
01:26You're going to get a little piece of energy that splits off from this and then watch additional energy coming in across the Canadian prairies.
01:33I'm going to put this into motion and watch how you start slowly but surely.
01:36There's Wednesday, Thursday, and then you see what happens Friday, Saturday.
01:41All of a sudden you have this, this dip in the jet stream across the southeast.
01:45And note, you have a lot of energy in here denoted by the red shading offshore.
01:50So what's going to end up happening is this is going to form a storm off the east coast of the United States.
01:57Now, because this isn't coming from the tropics, it's not going to be a purely tropical system.
02:03In fact, what's going to end up happening, it's coming from the Canadian prairies.
02:07So it's more like a winter storm.
02:09However, you've got to keep an eye on these, and let me show you why.
02:13Because when you look at water temperatures here off the east coast of the United States,
02:19what you're going to end up seeing here are water temperatures, what?
02:22In the lower 80s.
02:23You see that?
02:24So this low pressure system is going to be forming in here.
02:29It's over very warm water.
02:31Now, there's lots of wind shear.
02:33It's not purely from the tropics.
02:35So this will not be a purely tropical storm.
02:38However, if this low sits over the warm water for a period of time,
02:42you start getting more and more thunderstorms.
02:44You know what this could be?
02:46The hybrid howler, as I called it, or a subtropical storm moving forward here.
02:51Now, let me show you some of the modeling where this storm is going to go.
02:55And I can tell you this, the modeling is all over the place with this.
02:59Let me show you three models.
03:01You know what they're going to be?
03:02The European, the American, and then the British model, the UK Met.
03:06They all have this.
03:07Friday evening, I want you to watch this area in here off the South Carolina coast.
03:12Watch it.
03:13They all have an area of storm.
03:15This is the European, the American, the British model.
03:19All have pretty much the same thing.
03:21Let's go to Saturday.
03:22Here is the European model.
03:24Well, 998 millibar low right here off the North Carolina coast.
03:28What does the American model have?
03:30Pretty close.
03:31What does the British model have?
03:32A little weaker.
03:34But they all show a storm off the Carolina coast.
03:37What does the European do it?
03:39Hugs it along the coast for a period of time.
03:42You see that?
03:43Stalls it and then brings it back into the Carolina coast.
03:46This will be the worst case scenario for the Outer Banks because you'll get a period of
03:50rain and wind that will last right into Monday.
03:52That's the European model.
03:54What does the American model do?
03:56Well, there it is Saturday evening off the coast, brings it northward, brings rain to the
04:02Mid-Atlantic Sunday in the Monday, and then out to sea as we get into Tuesday.
04:08The British model, a little different.
04:10Here it is Saturday offshore.
04:12Most of the rain, most of the wind offshore.
04:14So what's right?
04:15Not sure yet.
04:17But one thing I will say, no matter what you look at, and let's go to the European,
04:20a couple of interesting things here.
04:22You've got an area of high pressure building in the Northeast.
04:26You have low pressure here.
04:27What does that mean?
04:28You're going to drive the wind.
04:29I think we're going to have a lot of problems along the Carolina, Virginia, North Carolina
04:34coast late this week and over the upcoming weekend.
04:37Either you get a soaking rain and pounding wind, or you just get the wind.
04:41But there's going to be beach erosion, rough surf, and you're probably going to get coastal
04:46flooding here.
04:47And for the vulnerable areas in the Outer Banks of North Carolina, more damage, I'm afraid,
04:52as that water is just going to be able to sweep over those unprotected areas.
04:56So this is going to be a huge problem I'm worried about.
05:00Let's keep an eye on that, all right?
05:01Now, I've been sounding the alarm for a week.
05:06Oh, by the way, just so you know, just to tidy this up a little bit, whether this gets
05:12named or not, we do have a high risk of some kind of development off the Carolina coast.
05:20Again, I don't think it's purely tropical, but it could be a subtropical storm.
05:23And these systems can produce problems with rain and wind.
05:26So that's something to keep an eye on.
05:28Now, I've been sounding the alarm for how long about this?
05:31Look at these warm waters.
05:33These are the temperature anomalies in the Gulf and the Caribbean.
05:36You're looking at water temperatures, water temperatures that are three to four degrees
05:41above the historical average.
05:42So they're well in the 80s.
05:44I am worried, really quickly, worried moving forward that with this dip in the jet stream
05:51coming on through, and here it is, take a look at it.
05:54With this dip in the jet stream coming in, high pressure builds in behind it, that this area
06:01is going to be susceptible for development.
06:04As we head toward the middle part of the month, let's watch this area for tropical development.
06:10A hybrid howler and homegrown development on the feet.
06:13As we go to the next day, let's see.
06:15Now.
06:17Let's see if we have something with a lot of introduced.
06:20Now we're looking at these water temperatures in the hospital.
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