In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Bernie Rayno tracks Tropical Storm Jerry in the Atlantic, but his main concern is the potential for homegrown development along the East coast, the Gulf of America, and Caribbean later this week.
00:00I think we're going to have Jerry in the Atlantic later this week, but more worried about homegrown development along the East Coast and in the Gulf and Caribbean as we head over the next week or so.
00:14But let's begin with the Atlantic here this morning as we're tracking this tropical wave.
00:20There it is.
00:21Let's put it in motion here.
00:22And where are we talking about this?
00:24Well, we're talking about it, I wouldn't say midway between Africa and the islands.
00:29Here's the West Coast of Africa.
00:31Here are the Lesser Antilles.
00:32It's about 40 degrees West.
00:33Now, what you're looking at here, notice that it hasn't scaled up or down on the infrared satellite picture.
00:38You see a lot of reds.
00:39It's been consistent.
00:40That tells us that this system is getting better organized here, or at the least, it's holding its own.
00:46Where is it going to go?
00:47I think it's headed toward north and west of the islands.
00:50I want to show you some modeling on this.
00:52And what I'm showing you is what we call the global models here.
00:56We have hurricane models.
00:57I like the global models.
00:58The American, the European, and also the Canadian.
01:02So, we have three of them in here.
01:03Now, what are we looking at here?
01:05This is Tuesday morning here.
01:06You see all this red or the yellow and the green here?
01:09That's the energy associated with the tropical wave.
01:12This is the European.
01:13This is the GFS and the Canadian.
01:18They all have it in the same area.
01:20Let's go ahead to Thursday evening.
01:22Let's see where they have it here.
01:23Okay.
01:23The European is very weak with this system.
01:27I was talking with Alex Da Silva.
01:28He thinks there's too much dry air.
01:30The European is quite weak with this.
01:31The European model says this isn't likely to develop here.
01:35Meanwhile, the other global models, and even the hurricane model is a little different.
01:40Look how much stronger they are.
01:41European, American.
01:43European, American.
01:44See the difference?
01:45American model, a lot more reds.
01:47You can see the black lines.
01:48According to the American model, this is a storm, at least a tropical storm, if not a hurricane.
01:54Interesting enough, the Canadian, a little in between, a little stronger, but not as strong as the American model.
02:02It's a lot farther southward.
02:03You see that near the islands.
02:05Now, where does it go from there?
02:07Let's go to Friday.
02:08There's the European.
02:09Little weak system right in here pushing over the islands.
02:13Meanwhile, the American model, where does it take it?
02:16North of the islands, the Canadian kind of in between.
02:20But no matter what you look at here, whether this goes across the islands or not, it's not headed toward the United States.
02:27There's no way.
02:27Because later on this week, look at this.
02:29Big dip in the jet stream.
02:31That's the UK meta, I should say.
02:34That's the European model.
02:36The British model.
02:37This, again, the American model, European model.
02:40What are the most show?
02:41A big dip in the jet stream.
02:43So, the key is, no matter where this goes, it's going to be headed out to sea.
02:47Right now, this is the scenario we think we're going to see here.
02:52We're going to see this.
02:54This tropical wave makes its move.
02:56Likely a storm later this week.
02:58And it seems likely it's going to take this path.
03:00Perhaps it's a little farther south and east, but it's still going to head away from the United States.
03:05So, there is no path forward for this system moving forward.
03:10Now, notice that I mentioned earlier that we have a big dip in the jet stream coming across the eastern United States.
03:18I think this is going to have some impacts twofold.
03:21Because of that dip in the jet stream, what are we going to see later this week?
03:25Watch this.
03:25You're going to see a storm that takes shape off the eastern seaboard.
03:30Let me show it to you right here.
03:33Right here.
03:34This is it.
03:35Now, right in here, watch this system take shape.
03:38That's because of that dip in the jet stream along the east coast.
03:42This is the European-American model.
03:44Watch what it does.
03:44Watch.
03:45Boom, boom, boom, boom.
03:46Look at this.
03:47This is by Saturday evening.
03:49You have a developing storm off the North Carolina coast.
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