Tropical rainstorm poses threats for Hispaniola and Cuba

None of the systems in the tropics right now will affect the U.S. mainland, but that doesn't mean they'll have no effect at all.

Transcript

00:00We've had 13 named storms, that's close to average. We're typically around 12 by now,

00:04but the thing that's been a little unusual has been the disproportionate number of storms that

00:08have become hurricanes, and among them, those that have made landfall in the U.S. as well.

00:14Nine hurricanes, typically by now we have six, and we've had four major hurricanes.

00:19Typically by the end of October we've had three major hurricanes. So we have two areas,

00:23we're calling both of these tropical rainstorms. Neither of these are organized tropical

00:27depressions or tropical storms, but they are still impactful, and that's why we use that

00:31phrase tropical rainstorm, because they are more than just maybe a tropical wave. You can see this

00:35disturbance moving west. This is going to bring two to four inches of rain to northern parts of

00:39Hispaniola. This is a large zone with rain, showers, and thunderstorms into the western

00:44Caribbean. That has about two days before it will move over land, and again, this has the chance to

00:51develop into perhaps a brief short-lived tropical depression. We'll have to see if that materializes,

00:57but we are likely going to at least hold on to the flooding rainfall potential here in a localized

01:03fashion into Belize and places like the Yucatan Peninsula. So localized flash flooding tied to

01:08some extra heavier rain. Water temps are in the mid-80s there. We've cooled down a bit in the

01:12eastern Caribbean, or eastern Gulf I should say, with some deeper colder water coming up to the

01:17surface after the top layer of the water got swept aside by both Helene and then Milton, but

01:23look at the wind shear now across the Gulf of Mexico and South Florida. This is great news. The

01:28purple, this is wind that would really keep any development very disheveled, and it would prevent

01:35any named storm from coming into this area and surviving. So this is pretty inhospitable wind

01:41regarding hurricanes, so that's going to be protecting us at least for now. There's no

01:46guarantee that we're totally done here in the Gulf of Mexico, but the longer we hold on to a

01:50pattern like this deeper into late October, the better we will be, and typically we see that shift

01:56into November where these late season November storms are a little more likely into the Caribbean

02:01and the western Atlantic and a little less likely near the central Gulf Coast. We do have an area

02:05with that lighter pastel color near Puerto Rico and also east-northeast of Nicaragua and Honduras.

02:11Those are the areas where we have some chance for development, but for high pressure to sit like

02:15this over the southeast, the recent front that has parked itself all the way down to the Bahamas,

02:19the wind shear, we are going to be protected for now in Florida. The tropical rainstorm we're

02:24tracking is going to be moving west-northwest, passing probably just north of Puerto Rico.

02:28We're concerned about this still in a narrow window of opportunity, potentially becoming a

02:32weak tropical storm. It'll bring some heavy rain to the north side of Hispaniola. Regardless,

02:37gusts of wind may still reach 40 plus miles per hour for some this weekend, and we're most

02:41concerned about the two to four inches of rain in the mountains terrain of far northern parts

02:45of Hispaniola and northeastern parts of Cuba. That's where the greatest impacts would likely be

02:50regarding some dangers, but a little bit of good news in the Gulf of Mexico. Oceanic heat content

02:56all the way back down to average. We love seeing that, Damien, after where we spent most of the

03:00past two months. Now we're still above average in the main development region, so the tropical

03:04Atlantic is still running very, very warm. That's right, and even on our calendar, our hurricane

03:08calendar, we are still in a very active stretch here as we head into November, so do not let your

03:13guard down because we could still be tracking some more potential development across the tropics.