Forecasters watching the Caribbean for tropical development in mid-November

AccuWeather

There may not be any more tropical storms that affect the U.S. this year, but part of the Caribbean could still experience a tropical system in November.

Transcript

00:00 Yeah, pretty quiet in the tropics

00:01 as we head toward the weekend,

00:03 but next week we have to keep an eye

00:06 on what the Southwest Caribbean.

00:08 It's not for a lack of clouds

00:10 in the Atlantic Basin area.

00:12 You can see that we're tracking some

00:14 clouds across the Atlantic Basin.

00:16 In fact, you can.

00:17 We can highlight him here with

00:19 the R in the eastern Atlantic.

00:21 Let's take you into the greater

00:23 Antilles where we have some showers,

00:25 thunderstorms from Hispaniola

00:26 toward Puerto Rico and then in

00:28 the Northwest Caribbean.

00:29 We do have some showers and

00:31 thunderstorms as well,

00:32 but none of these areas are expected

00:34 to develop for two reasons.

00:35 Dry air and wind shear.

00:37 Let me show you the dry air.

00:39 The dry air is extensive across the

00:41 Atlantic as we put this into motion.

00:43 Here's our first area of dry air from

00:46 the islands all the way toward the

00:48 West Coast of Africa.

00:49 You could really see the dry air by this

00:52 yellow, orange and even dark reds here

00:54 across the Southwest Atlantic and

00:56 then pockets of dry air.

00:57 Across the Gulf of Mexico and also

01:00 into the Northwest Caribbean.

01:01 As far as wind shears concerned,

01:03 is extensive.

01:04 You can see all the dark purple here.

01:06 That's our wind shear.

01:08 Strong winds aloft weaken tropical systems,

01:10 so dry air lot of wind shear.

01:12 That's why it's been so quiet.

01:14 However,

01:14 as we head into next week,

01:16 while the wind shear is going

01:18 to continue for most areas,

01:20 notice what's going on here in the

01:22 Southwest Caribbean.

01:23 Not much in the way of wind shear

01:25 and water temperatures are running

01:27 normal about 2 to 3 degrees.

01:29 Above the historical averages,

01:30 you could see the orange and red here,

01:32 so warm water and no wind shear.

01:34 What you need something to really

01:36 start the process to get showers

01:37 and thunderstorms going and we're

01:39 going to watch a frontal boundary

01:40 come South as a strong area of high

01:42 pressure builds across the Mid Atlantic.

01:44 You always look underneath the belly of

01:46 the high pressure system for development.

01:48 I think we're going to get

01:49 development here late next week.

01:51 I still don't think that there's a

01:53 pathway this for this to get to the

01:55 United States but heavy rain possible.

01:57 and the greater Antilles late next week.

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