00:00My valued followers of the International Association of Agricultural Cities.
00:04Hello and welcome to the Elgisitiz Academy program.
00:09Thank you very much. Nice to meet you.
00:12Professor, I'd like to get straight to the point with a current issue.
00:15Türkiye's agricultural sector contracted by 12.7% in the last quarter.
00:20This shows that the sector is facing serious challenges.
00:23Can this situation be interpreted as a consequence of a series of recent structural and conjectural problems?
00:29What is the reason for the overall contraction? Could you please explain?
00:34Of course, thank you.
00:35Now, if we're talking about the agricultural sector, difficulty is already a word synonymous with the agricultural sector.
00:41The agricultural sector is a very challenging sector because it is carried out under conditions dependent on nature.
00:47While saying this for those working in this sector, it also applies to the trade of products obtained in this sector.
00:53It's also really difficult for the people involved in processing and retail marketing.
00:58All of these processes are difficult.
01:00Because agriculture and agricultural products have an organic structure.
01:03These things deteriorate over time, and so on.
01:06Therefore, agriculture is difficult in all its forms and processes.
01:11Now, as you know, in the past year and the years before that,
01:14There are two reasons for this.
01:17This contraction of twelve percent or more could be one of them, let me say that before evaluating it.
01:26We will attribute it to climatic factors and natural conditions.
01:28We will also explain the other aspects in terms of market conditions, such as input supply, the producer's production conditions, and marketing.
01:35Now, we can say that the most important and significant factor in this regard is climatic factors.
01:40As you know, during the spring months we experience severe frosts and very low temperatures.
01:48It deprived us of the income we would have obtained from perennial plants in particular, and caused a very serious decrease in yields.
01:59Furthermore, these severe cold spells also affected field crops, particularly those that were in production at the time, leading to a decrease in yield.
02:11Again, the lack of rainfall, especially during the periods when the irrigation needs of annual crops grown in field farming are intense, particularly after April-May.
02:24And because we don't get enough rainfall during the winter months, our underground water reservoirs or dams don't fill up.
02:33Due to our inability to adequately water our crops and the lack of rain, we experienced a decrease in yield here as well.
02:44This process has continued for us until the present time, depending on climatic factors.
02:51Therefore, besides this...
02:52There was both a frost and a drought. You're saying that two natural events happened one after the other, right, professor?
02:59Yes, absolutely, and as you know, fruits are high-income products.
03:06So, in conclusion, this includes our Central Anatolia region as well as the southern provinces where fruit production is concentrated.
03:15We received almost no products for some of our items.
03:20Therefore, we were unable to add the revenue from these fruits, which are a very high value-added product, to the national income.
03:27It caused a significant decrease in agricultural national income.
03:31And furthermore, we can say all of these things for computer manufacturing.
03:36Our income is high, and we produce and export 70% of the world's hazelnuts.
03:41Therefore, there is a significant decrease in yield due to the effect of a pest called the stink bug in hazelnuts.
03:49Again, there too, we suffered significant damage due to a frost.
03:56Due to factors ranging from cold to pests and drought, we have seen significant decreases in yields for various crops.
04:04This is the main reason, though.
04:06Of course, the producer has been experiencing drought for years due to climate change over the past 3-4 years.
04:16Product yields and harvests are gradually decreasing, and producers are losing the courage to resume production.
04:23But do these also cause a decrease in production?
04:26Of course it is a reason.
04:27Ultimately, manufacturers who consistently do this business always manage to muster the courage to resume production again and again.
04:35Ultimately, this is also a profit expectation, an income expectation.
04:40This is also an economic unit.
04:42Making production decisions without having future profit and revenue expectations can be very difficult.
04:48Therefore, it's possible to say that this also has some effect, albeit a small one.
04:52Over the past 3-4 years, of course, there have been increases in input costs and price increases due to inflation.
05:01It certainly had an impact on the producer's production decision.
05:06But exiting agricultural production is not a process that can be decided quickly and easily, so...
05:11The effects of this will be spread over a somewhat longer period.
05:14It is not possible, and would be quite wrong, to immediately say that the 12.7% decrease this year is due to a breakdown in the market structure.
05:23What is true here is that frost, drought, and certain special circumstances are what cause the yield reduction resulting from these plant damages.
05:33We explain this as having caused a 12.7% decrease in agricultural national income.
05:40Sir, when we just read it as a mere number, it seems like there's some serious problem, but...
05:47When we look at agriculture in general, at its current state, because it changes every year, there are geographical factors involved, climatic differences.
05:57When we look at these negative things, you're saying yes, they're important, but it's not something to make a big deal out of, right?
06:02Now, this is not something to be blown out of proportion.
06:05When climate factors worsen, the sustainability of the agricultural sector is threatened.
06:10The feasibility, the availability of these products, and the threat to public nutrition and the sustainability of human life are all issues that need to be addressed.
06:22This should be amplified as much as possible, and the Ministry of Agriculture is already trying to take the highest possible measures to address this issue.
06:30These are important points that are a separate topic of discussion, but here's the situation.
06:35So, if climate factors had remained normal over the past three years,
06:42If our producers could reach the harvest levels they expect,
06:47While market structure is certainly important, there are vulnerabilities; market disruptions negatively impact producers, and we know that.
06:55Despite all these challenges, both in sourcing inputs and selling the product, we could still see a sense of satisfaction in the producer, along with the courage and willingness to repeat production.
07:06But the fragility of the market structure is inherent to agricultural product markets.
07:12This has been the case for 50 years, not just 3, 5, 10, or 20 years.
07:16This is not just the case in Türkiye; it's the same in Germany and America.
07:19Of course, countries will address certain market vulnerabilities according to their own needs, in order to stabilize producers' incomes.
07:25They have created a number of support systems and organizational structures to prevent them from being victimized.
07:31It exists in Türkiye as well, for example, the Turkish Agricultural Products Office and the price support system.
07:37Systems like price ceiling support, similar to their announcements, or different cooperatives exist in Türkiye as well.
07:43My producer believes that countries have made certain decisions based on the structure of agricultural production.
07:48This topic, encompassing all of these things, these are expected and known things.
07:57The producer is already accepting this vulnerability and risk when undertaking this production.
08:01But worsening climatic conditions are the biggest discouragement for producers.
08:08Because there's a possibility they might not receive the product at all.
08:11There's a possibility you might not receive your product at all.
08:13You've produced the wheat, and if wheat prices are low, and the producer has no income or debt worries—which they usually do—then our producer always works hard during the harvest season.
08:23He can store it, sell it at a later time, and manage it.
08:28But when there's no product, there's nothing left to manage.
08:32Therefore, the threat posed by climatic factors is the factor that most significantly reduces the producer's courage and willingness to produce.
08:40Is this manageable too?
08:43Of course, there are long-term measures being taken.
08:45Hopefully, these climatic factors and this drought won't last long.
08:51Let's call it the opening up of irrigation areas, or let's call it ensuring the climate balance continues without further deterioration.
08:59May these things continue; let this be our wish and our prayer.
09:01But in this regard, within the framework of the studies conducted by scientists, our universities, and our Ministry of Agriculture, drought-resistant plants are being developed.
09:12Even if current climatic conditions worsen, our efforts and endeavors to produce the agricultural products that are the source of our food will continue in some way.
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