00:00Hello.
00:01A big talking point for this Tuesday's weather will be just how warm is it going to get?
00:06Well, very warm for the time of year for many places.
00:09Currently, we actually have slightly fresher air across parts, particularly in the north
00:13here.
00:13It could be quite chilly overnight.
00:15But I wanted to draw your attention to the very warm air to the south of us.
00:20With low pressure developing out in the Atlantic, a deep area of low pressure, we're going to
00:25drag that warm air northwards, which is why temperatures are going to rise so high above
00:30average for the time of year on Tuesday.
00:33But before that, through Monday evening, a wet end to the day across parts of the southeast,
00:38a front here lingering through the English Channel.
00:40And then that front edges northwards, the trading feature of it, across southern parts overnight.
00:46So we'll see more cloud developing and some outbreaks of rain for southern counties through
00:50the early hours of Tuesday morning.
00:52Further north, a different story.
00:54It's drier.
00:55Any showers in the far north of Scotland through the evening, they will clear away.
00:59And then there will be some clear skies for many places.
01:02And under these, yes, it's going to turn quite fresh, if not chilly, really.
01:05Temperatures dropping to low single figures in some places.
01:09But with the cloud in the south, as that front pushes in, we're also tapping into that warmer
01:13air.
01:14So if anything, temperatures across southern parts are actually going to rise through the early
01:18hours of Tuesday morning.
01:20So a mild start to the day in the south, but quite a grey one.
01:23A bit damp in places with some outbreaks of rain, some dry weather, but a bit of rain coming
01:27and going.
01:28All that front then pushes into more central areas later on in the morning and eventually
01:33arriving in parts of northern England, southern Scotland and Northern Ireland by the middle
01:37to the end of the afternoon.
01:39So thickening cloud here, some outbreaks of rain across much of Scotland, staying dry through
01:44the bulk of the day, but quite cloudy.
01:46Just some sunshine perhaps for maybe Aberdeenshire, Orkney and Shetland perhaps having some brighter,
01:51sunny weather.
01:52And then we will also see things brightening up across southern parts once that front clears
01:57through.
01:58Exactly how much sunshine we see, well, that's going to be pivotal to exactly how warm it gets.
02:03Nonetheless, I'm expecting temperatures to be way above average for the time of year, highs
02:07of around 27 Celsius.
02:09But if we see a bit more sunshine perhaps, then we could get even hotter than that.
02:14Further north temperatures in the mid to high teens, if not low 20s.
02:18But we do need to bear in mind the winds will be strengthening because of that deep air of
02:22low pressure out in the Atlantic.
02:24How warm compared to average is it going to be?
02:27Well, if we compare tomorrow's highs with the average for September, and you can see across
02:31southern areas, it is going to be markedly warmer.
02:34Some places, wow, five, six degrees above average for September.
02:39But this is the end of September, the penultimate day, the second to last day of the month.
02:44And so to see temperatures as high as 27, 28, possibly even 29, that is pretty remarkable
02:50for this stage in the month.
02:52A different story for some parts towards eastern Scotland here, if anything.
02:56Temperatures are actually a little bit below average.
02:58Then we have this deep air of low pressure.
03:01It is going to go through rapid cyclogenesis, so deepening rapidly.
03:04But fortunately, it stays to the west of us.
03:07So whilst it will be windy, there will be large waves, we're not going to see the greatest
03:11impacts that we could have done if it had come close to us.
03:14Nonetheless, that front is making its way across the country, and that's going to bring
03:18a fair amount of rain, initially arriving in parts of Northern Ireland, southwest England,
03:23southwest Wales, through the end of the day on Tuesday.
03:26And then it sweeps its way eastwards as we go overnight into Wednesday morning.
03:31The heaviest rain then will be across western parts of Northern Ireland, the Morns, for example.
03:35Also higher ground Wales and southwest England.
03:38And also western parts of Scotland, the Grampians, Dumfries-Galloway area here locally, we could
03:44see as much as 40 to 60 millimetres perhaps, and we need to watch out for strong gusty winds,
03:49gusts of 50 miles per hour, perhaps a bit stronger than that.
03:52In the east, it's staying dry with some clear skies, but for all with that air coming in
03:57from the south, it is going to be a mild night, first thing Wednesday morning, it's going to
04:00be very mild indeed.
04:02These kind of temperatures, well, they're above average for our daytime highs at this time
04:06of year, so pretty unusual to see overnight mins in the mid to high teens.
04:11That rain in the west does filter its way eastwards through Wednesday morning.
04:16It will still be quite heavy and persistent, so all of us will have a significant spell
04:20of rain for a time.
04:21For some places, that will be pretty welcome.
04:24Eventually, it clears away towards the east through the middle part of the afternoon.
04:28Behind it, a brighter picture, still quite blustery, but also quite showery.
04:33The shower is not as heavy as the more persistent rain that will have pushed through earlier on
04:37in the day, but nonetheless, a fair few places, especially Northern Ireland, western parts
04:41of England, Wales and Scotland, likely to see some showers through the afternoon.
04:45It is going to turn fresher once that comes through, but not a huge drop in temperatures.
04:50They're still above average, mid-twenties for some places towards the south, high teens
04:54or low twenties across more northern parts.
04:57That rain eventually does clear away towards the east.
05:00The showers become more widespread for many places through Thursday and Friday before, well,
05:04high pressure could develop, especially in the south and across central areas in time
05:09for the weekend.
05:09We'll have more details about that as we get nearer the time.
05:12Bye-bye.
