- 2 days ago
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00I always find myself looking forward to when we're going to have you on, Aaron,
00:05but especially when I found out we were going to have you today
00:08because something I have been thinking about since it happened
00:12is just how much the Rams help themselves by exchanging Garrett for verse.
00:18I know there's draft picks and other stuff that will weigh the trade
00:23one way or another years down the road because it's not just verse for Garrett,
00:27of course, but how much does getting Garrett in place of verse
00:32like move the meter for the Rams to you?
00:36Well, in our projections, it moved them about half a win up,
00:41but I have a feeling that that's underselling it a little bit
00:44because we measure defensive personnel moving in and out
00:50using approximate value from a pro football reference,
00:53and that's just approximate.
00:55And, you know, it's like verse could be like the 10th best pass rusher in the league,
01:00and still the difference between him and Garrett is just huge.
01:03And it's also what Garrett, you know, opens up for what the Rams can do on defense
01:09and just opening up the possibilities.
01:12Now, listen, there's no guarantee that Garrett is on a good defense, right?
01:16Because two years ago, Cleveland was 25th in the league in defense by my numbers,
01:23despite the fact that Miles Garrett had an awesome season.
01:26You still have to have, like, the rest of your defense,
01:28but the Rams do have some pretty good players on defense.
01:32Now that they have McDuffie and Watson at cornerback, good safeties,
01:36and Nate Landman, Byron Young is the other edge rusher,
01:39and a kid named Josiah Stewart.
01:41He's really promising.
01:42So, yeah, the Rams, you know, defense looks really, really good.
01:46Once again, you know, the best teams in the league look like they're in the NFC,
01:49and in particular the NFC West.
01:51Does the specter of Aaron Donald coming back do anything to enhance this,
01:56or is that like a TBD for you?
02:00Oh, I mean, it's a TBD.
02:02I don't think he'll really come back.
02:04He sounded really like he was done when he said he was done.
02:08And it's not like he has to come back to chase the ring because he did get a ring
02:12when he was playing, but apparently there is a little bit of smoke here.
02:16And, I mean, I'm sure he still could be a phenomenal player if he came back
02:19despite having the year off.
02:23But I'm going to guess that he won't.
02:26I flatter myself to say that I think on a lot of these topics you and I are like-minded.
02:33When the Browns make that trade, I'm, like, almost giddy for the Browns.
02:37One thing about it is that, and we had this with the Sabres,
02:41and we've made this comparison a couple times.
02:42The Sabres had a great year.
02:44That has changed.
02:44But when a team has been losing for so long,
02:47I think there's only so much capacity you have as a fan of that team to listen to,
02:51well, we got draft picks.
02:52And actually this chart says we did well in this trade.
02:56But in a vacuum, I think this is really exciting for Cleveland.
02:59Do you agree?
03:00Yeah, especially because they got verse back.
03:03It's not just draft picks.
03:04They've got a proven player who still has three years on his rookie contract,
03:08if you count the option, the fifth-year option.
03:11And so let's say that next year they take a quarterback.
03:14And let's say they luck out.
03:16They get a good one.
03:17So when that quarterback is in his second year,
03:20and hopefully they're ready to contend,
03:22verse will still be there and hopefully signs an extension for them.
03:26So it's not just the draft picks.
03:28But apparently they were talking to the Eagles and they told the Eagles they wanted Jalen Carter in the deal.
03:34So clearly it was important to the Browns that they not just get draft picks,
03:38but that they get a proven first-round talent who's not as good as Garrett, but is pretty good.
03:44How about the other big trade here, A.J. Brown, Aaron?
03:47This is one that, unlike Miles Garrett, I think we all saw coming.
03:51So I don't know what kind of movement there would have been in the betting markets or anything,
03:55because I think this has been assumed, that A.J. Brown would land in New England.
03:59Maybe a little bit less so in the last few weeks, but ultimately this is what happened.
04:03How big of an upgrade is this for the Patriots?
04:08You know, Stephon Diggs was pretty good last year.
04:11So it's a bigger upgrade from what they had than it is from what they had last year.
04:18Right? It's an upgrade from what they had last year, but more importantly, Diggs wasn't there anymore,
04:22and it's a really significant upgrade from what they would have had if they had not made this trade.
04:27Brown is still really, really good.
04:30Now, I don't know what the situation is with his knee.
04:33Apparently there were teams that were a little bit scared, and he's not going to be able to practice every
04:38day,
04:38and he has to have it drained occasionally.
04:40But apparently he's still playing at a very high level,
04:44and he's probably one of the ten best receivers in the league.
04:47I don't know how much longer he'll be that because, you know, he's a little older now.
04:53But it's a really good addition for the Patriots, and, you know, they paid significantly for it.
04:58But what's interesting is that they traded a 2028 first instead of a 2027 first,
05:05which sort of suggests, first of all, just how much people like next year's draft,
05:09but also, you know, the idea that they want to get one more young first-rounder in under Drake May's
05:16rookie contract
05:17before they have a year where they don't have a first-round pick.
05:21Yeah, I'll tell you, that price, it being a 28-1, really, you know, everything the Patriots do,
05:29especially at receiver, or really anything anyone does at receiver,
05:33we in Buffalo, like certain people in Buffalo anyway, like me, are paying attention.
05:37And the Bills traded a second for DJ Moore, and that feels like the same as a 28 first to
05:45me
05:45at this point in time.
05:46Like with just, I don't know if that's right or not, but like the price feels pretty comparable.
05:50And then considering the contracts, like it all just seems really, I don't know,
05:56I still feel like the Bills overpaid for DJ Moore, I guess, is where I end up.
05:59Yeah, I know a lot of people feel that way, and we'll have to see how much he rebounds from,
06:03you know, how much last year's down year was more about like how he fit into the offense.
06:10And that's how it's perceived.
06:12You know, you sort of discount one round for every year in the future that a pick is.
06:18But in reality, a 20-28 first is worth more than a 20-27 second.
06:23But I will say that, or actually it was a 20-26 second.
06:29It was a six second, right.
06:29It was an immediate.
06:30Yeah.
06:32But, you know, some of it is Brown's comfort with Vrabel, right?
06:38Like there's some feeling that Brown is unhappy,
06:41and I don't know whether it would be that way in Buffalo.
06:45I mean, obviously he went to Buffalo, you know, it's a better quarterback,
06:48and he's the clear number one receiver.
06:51But he wanted to go to New England.
06:53He talked about it being the team he rooted for growing up,
06:55and he's got a close relationship for Vrabel from when they were both with Tennessee.
06:59So I don't think that the Bills were in play for this one.
07:04With Aaron Schatz, Mike Schopen, the Bulldog here.
07:06How about Bills versus Patriots going into next season?
07:11Aaron, with this move, we all heard about New England's schedule last year
07:17and just historically favorable.
07:20They did take advantage of it, of course.
07:22The Bills go in not by a huge margin, and it's still only early June,
07:27but for now as a division favorite over the Patriots.
07:31How do you want to compare the two teams?
07:35Yeah, I think based on the idea that we try to predict the future looking at two
07:40or three years of the past, not just one year of the past,
07:43it makes sense that the Bills should be slight favorites.
07:47The Patriots obviously took advantage of that super easy schedule.
07:50It's not that their schedule is super hard this year.
07:53Their schedule is actually kind of close to average this year by my numbers,
07:57and similar to the Bills' schedule.
08:00They have similar schedules, so it's not going to be like last year.
08:05But that team still has a lot of talent.
08:08I mean, I think it's probably like 60, 40 Bills at this point,
08:12and I don't know, 1% Jets.
08:14I mean, weird things happen in the NFL, right?
08:18But the thing about the AFC East is if you told yourself a story about which teams
08:25are going to take a leap this year the way the Patriots did last year,
08:29you would mostly look at teams with young quarterbacks.
08:32You'd look at the Giants.
08:33You'd look at the Titans.
08:35You would not look at the Jets.
08:37And I don't think you'd look at the Dolphins given, you know, not the quarterback,
08:41but given everything else going on with that team.
08:43So it really feels like a two-horse race.
08:45You know, Aaron, I'm sort of a little shook, I guess, by the changes here
08:52and just the assumption that the train will just keep rolling along unencumbered here.
08:59You know, it's a whole new defensive scheme.
09:01We'll see about what kind of personnel fit into that.
09:06You know, I'm sort of bracing for halfway through the year.
09:09Well, like, we still don't have all the guys we need or something with Jim Leonard's defense.
09:14And it's a first-time head coach.
09:16I mean, I appreciate his relationship with Allen and the offense being really largely unaffected
09:21other than some, you know, personnel changes.
09:25But I don't know.
09:26I just feel like there's a lot you've got to get right as a first-time head coach
09:29and with a new system on one side of the ball.
09:32It makes it hard for me to just assume the Bills are going to win their 12 games
09:35just rolling out of bed.
09:37Well, it may not be 12, but, you know, I agree with you.
09:42When you change coaching staffs, all other things being equal,
09:46you take a little bit of a step back, okay?
09:49The fact is, the reason why I think the Bills are still favored in the division is,
09:53one, you know, sort of looking two or three years,
09:55the idea that they'll bounce back a little bit from last year's decline.
09:59And second, that they've got the quarterback, right?
10:01They've still got, you know, as good as Drake May was last year,
10:05I think if you said, who are the three best quarterbacks in the league,
10:09you would still say they are Mahomes, Allen, and Jackson in some order.
10:13And the Bills have one of those three guys.
10:15So, you know, that makes them favorites.
10:19With Aaron Schatz, I want to make sure I bring up 1977 before we lose you today, Aaron,
10:25because of your great work, DVOA and everything that you've –
10:29because I'm a sucker for old games, and I know you've been writing about that season.
10:33But in terms of this year, so you mentioned earlier,
10:38you slipped in how the NFC has the top, you know, the pedigree at the top of the,
10:43you know, lineup, so to speak, with the Rams and the defending Super Bowl champs
10:47and maybe certain other teams.
10:49How dramatic a shift has there been?
10:52The quarterbacks you named are all in the AFC, but the rosters,
10:56everybody seems to agree the Rams are top of the list,
10:59and then Seattle, I don't know, San Francisco, Philadelphia, the Bears.
11:03What kind of – is there an imbalance right now between the conferences?
11:08Yeah.
11:08The NFC has the rosters and the coaches.
11:11The AFC has the quarterbacks.
11:13Interesting.
11:14We're mostly talking here about the West, right?
11:19Those three teams may be the three best coaches in the NFL.
11:24And while, you know, at least the Rams have a quarterback who's almost as good.
11:31You know, the main reason you don't see him as good as the guys from the AFC is,
11:35you know, that he's older, Stafford.
11:38But I think that then Philadelphia, we don't – I don't have as high for this year,
11:44although they're still the best in their division.
11:46And, you know, the NFC North has good teams.
11:49Detroit, I think, is still going to be really good this year.
11:52Chicago's really interesting.
11:53There's a lot of reasons, a lot of reasons to think their defense is going to be really bad.
11:58The Bears.
11:59They were a bad defense last year, despite having lots of turnovers
12:04and really good production on third down, and those things tend to regress.
12:10But their offense, I think, is going to be – despite the losing Dahlman in the center,
12:14I think their offense will be better in the second year under Ben Johnson.
12:17So they're going to be a really interesting team.
12:19I'll give a hint as to the projection.
12:21From the upcoming FTN Almanac, we have Chicago projected as the number two offense in the league
12:29and the number 32 defense.
12:32Well, that's fantasy viable right there.
12:35That's the perfect –
12:36Oh, yeah.
12:37That's the perfect –
12:37Oh, there's going to be a lot of fantasy points in Chicago.
12:40Oh, yeah.
12:40That's the perfect recipe right there.
12:42This has been Dallas for most of the last five years, right?
12:44Just like hot shootouts.
12:46Well, Dallas will be similar, but not – we don't think it's extreme.
12:50Yeah.
12:50You made a very interesting prediction in the ESPN article that's just out picking Houston
12:57to be the one seed in the AFC.
13:01I hope I have that accurate.
13:03I've been sort of crushing on Jacksonville, but the same column suggests maybe they're due –
13:09I think maybe this was yourself – due for regression?
13:13Yeah.
13:15Yeah, I think – I was really surprised when I did my projections.
13:19Houston comes out pretty ahead of the rest of the AFC, partly because of schedule, right?
13:26The Texans and the Jags have easier schedules than, like, the Bills and Patriots do, I think.
13:32But also, you know, their defense is going to be really good again, probably.
13:37And, you know, you can't predict defense as well as offense, so maybe they're not going to be,
13:41but probably they will be.
13:42And their offense should improve.
13:44They worked on the offensive line again.
13:46They've got a better running back, and they've got Tank Dell back, we think, right?
13:51Like, a little bit of an asterisk on this, because if Tank Dell is not back,
13:56then their offense is not as likely to improve.
13:59But if the defense is one of the top three in the league, and their schedule is what we think
14:03it is,
14:04and their offense is average, then they're a really, really big Super Bowl contender.
14:09Bill's at Texans week one.
14:11Montgomery seems like a fit, you know, a little bit just sort of makes sense for them as the running
14:18back
14:18if he's not, you know, washed up or anything.
14:21And Houston has young wide receivers in the back if it's not Tank Dell.
14:26What does all of this say about Stroud, or what is your opinion of him?
14:30Is he somebody, has he, does he get the credit or the blame that he might deserve?
14:35I mean, what is Stroud at this point?
14:38We're all overreacting to the playoffs, right?
14:41He had a terrible game in the playoffs, just terrible.
14:45But he's not as good, I think, as he looked like he was going to be his rookie.
14:49The thing is that he's stagnated, right?
14:52So when you saw how good he was his rookie year, your natural assumption is, well, if that's how good
14:57he is as a rookie,
14:58well, let's add to it.
15:00And see, by year two and three, oh, he's going to be this guy.
15:04And that's not what happened.
15:06He took a step back.
15:07But then he took another step forward last year, not to quite what he was as a rookie, but better.
15:12So I think if you were to rank every quarterback in the league right now, I think you would put
15:16Stroud, I don't know, 12th or so.
15:20And if they've got a reasonable offensive line and they've got good skill players, Nico Collins is very good, right?
15:27You can have an above-average offense with that.
15:30And when you combine it with the defense that they have, that's an easy schedule.
15:34That's a really strong Super Bowl contender.
15:37What's the Jacksonville regression argument?
15:42I mean, a lot of it is just a plexiglass principle.
15:45Teams that improve dramatically tend to take a step back the following year.
15:51But also, I think when you look at the roster, this is not from a statistical perspective, but from a,
15:59like, let's just go through the roster.
16:01There are questions.
16:02Like, how much pass rush do they really have other than Josh Hines-Allen?
16:06Is Trevon Walker really good enough as the other guy?
16:09You know, they lost a few guys to free agency that they didn't really replace.
16:15There's only two teams that we think are not in line to play anyone new as a starter.
16:23In other words, no draft picks, no trade acquisitions, no free agent signings.
16:28And that is Seattle, which I might be wrong about if the rookie price starts at chronic back.
16:32And Jacksonville.
16:34They're going to start all guys that they had last year.
16:36So they lose, like, Devin Lloyd, and they replace him with Ventron Miller.
16:39Well, Ventron Miller wasn't good enough to start last year.
16:43And you still don't know what's going on with the Travis Hunter experiment.
16:46So, I mean, there's reasons to believe in statistical regression, but also questions about the roster.
16:52But none of this is – I'm not saying they're going to go back to being 5-12.
16:56Like, I think Jacksonville is a good team.
16:58I just think they're not as likely to be good as Houston is.
17:03All right.
17:03Aaron, 1977.
17:05I think we're approximately the same age.
17:07This would have been right on the cusp of when I started following the NFL, but I'm a junkie for
17:12it.
17:13Your research brings that season, as you go back year by year, into the books in terms of DVOA and
17:22that.
17:22I have one question about late 70s football that I cannot figure out, which is I don't understand how there
17:30were so many turnovers in games.
17:33Like, Dallas stood out to you in your research.
17:3677, they would – they won the Super Bowl that year, right, Dallas?
17:40Yeah, they were the best team, and they won the Super Bowl.
17:43Oakland.
17:44So, Oakland was right there.
17:46Like, they were great.
17:46They were the defending champs.
17:48Their last three regular season games, eight combined, the two teams, eight turnovers, ten turnovers, eleven.
17:56The Bills, didn't they just have a year where they turned the ball over like six times the whole season
18:01or something?
18:02What is it or was it about this era in the NFL, if there's an easy answer to this?
18:08The first is more deep passing, especially before the invention of the West Coast offense,
18:14meant more of a risk-reward scenario where you'd either get a deep completion or you'd have the interception.
18:23And quarterbacks were less – they were less concerned with interceptions than they are now.
18:28I mean, no one likes an interception, but they weren't like – Aaron Rodgers does everything in his power to
18:33just never, ever throw one.
18:34Right.
18:35You can just throw the ball away all the time.
18:37And then the other was just Butterfingers.
18:39Like, there were just more fumbles.
18:41It's just the few – the farther back you go in time, it's just the more fumbles there are.
18:45I don't know why.
18:46That's a glove point.
18:47That is.
18:47Some of it may be replays.
18:49Some of it may be the plays that were called fumbles.
18:51In the modern game, we would not call them fumbles because there'd be replay,
18:55and you'd see that a guy's knee was down or something.
18:58But there's no question that when you go back in time, there's more and more like – you'd be surprised
19:02how much like Eric Dickerson fumbled in the early 80s.
19:06Just like a loss.
19:07We didn't have movies yet where high school coaches forced their star player to walk around with a football all
19:13the time and like take it to bed,
19:15and we just didn't respect ball security.
19:18The 79 Steelers, I mean, on the Pantheon, in the Pantheon of the all-time great teams,
19:25had 60 turnovers, including playoffs.
19:2860.
19:29It's crazy, right?
19:31It's crazy, yeah.
19:32Dickerson, in the season he set the rushing record, had like 13 thumbs.
19:37Do you take, like I do, a perverse sort of pleasure in this?
19:40That like there's – it's not that – this is color TV.
19:43It's not that long ago, really, that we had just such a completely different, you know, understanding or whatever it
19:52was.
19:52I mean, my perverse pleasure is going back and watching videos, especially when someone taped it off of TV.
19:58You know, when you get into the 80s and they're taped off TV and you get commercials.
20:02Oh, God.
20:04There's a – I was just seeing an 88 Vikings-Cowboys game on YouTube that was taped off a station
20:09in Buffalo, by the way.
20:10All right.
20:11I don't know what that was from, but if anybody here wants to see ads for old Buffalo businesses,
20:18search YouTube for the Cowboys-Vikings game from 1988, there are some amazing, amazing local Buffalo ads
20:26because it was an ESPN broadcast with local cable ads.
20:29Okay.
20:30Oh, boy.
20:31There's like some car detailing place where they rap.
20:34It's amazing.
20:36Amazing.
20:36I wish I remembered the name of the place because you'll have listeners who will remember this place.
20:41Like, it's awesome.
20:42We don't even know if it's not still around.
20:43I guess I want to find this out.
20:44Someone told me it's not still around.
20:47Someone told me the place is not around.
20:48It's safe to rip it.
20:50Now every ad is insurance or credit cards or drugs.
20:55Drugs.
20:56Drugs.
20:56Pharmaceuticals.
20:57Or gambling.
20:57In the 70s, it's cars and cigarettes.
21:00And beer.
21:02Cars, cigarettes.
21:03I mean, in movies, occasionally, there's a lot of ads because it's a cable, right?
21:06It's a cable broadcast.
21:08There's a lot of ads for Cinemax telling you just how much choice they had, how many different movies.
21:13Now you have streaming with like a zillion movies at your fingertips.
21:19Yeah, I love this too.
21:20All right.
21:20Yeah, 70s and 80s are different from each other in this area.
21:24All right.
21:25Aaron, the Almanac, how can people get it?
21:29Yeah, if you want to do an early order of the PDF version, you can't do an early order of
21:35the print version, unfortunately.
21:36But PDF version, just go to ftnfantasy.com slash almanac.
21:42And if you pre-order, you'll get $5 off.
21:45Comes out, I think, like July 8th we're shooting for or something like that.
21:49And then maybe I'll just throw in an extra 10% off that detailing place if you can find it.
21:54If it's still open, we give you a deal over there too.
21:58Thank you, Aaron.
21:59Great job.
21:59Good talking to you, man.
22:01Good talking to you guys.
22:02Aaron Schatz.
22:05Our 10,000th show, his 150th appearance.
22:11I'm saying.
22:12Oh, today was 10th.
22:12I didn't.
22:13I know.
22:14All right.
22:14No fanfare.
22:15It's kind of what we're used to.
22:17Sal Capaccio coming up next here on WB.
Comments