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00:00Goalless since the opener is tonight the night.
00:04We'll find out in the course of action today
00:07whether Bulldog might have a bet on Thompson.
00:09Good time to talk betting with our next guest waiting on hold
00:13on the Western Hotline, Sam Paniadovich.
00:16First, quickly, thanks to a listener that corrected me
00:19to point out that the Sabres did win the 2006 Senators Series
00:24by winning three road games.
00:27It's still my fault.
00:28I heard a listener, a caller this morning say that this would have been
00:32the first time, and I didn't bother to double-check that,
00:34so I should have.
00:36All right, here he is, noted contrarian, Sabres fan,
00:41chicken dinner co-host, DK horse enthusiast, party enthusiast,
00:49Bostonite, Bostonian Bulldog?
00:51Bostonian is what you want there, yes.
00:52Boston transplant, Sam Paniadovich.
00:55Here he is.
00:56Sam, what are your plans tonight?
01:01Well, first I have an over on Owen Parker's 542 p.m.
01:05arrival to Boston.
01:06Oh, you're already, that's a winner.
01:07It's already up to 550 at last gas stop.
01:10So, yeah.
01:12As you alluded to earlier, I've talked to basically everybody
01:15in the Parker family today except for Mrs. Parker.
01:19Owen says on the phone, I think I'm going to get in at 542, and I said,
01:25I'll take the over because, you know, 20-year-olds don't account for game day
01:29traffic in big cities.
01:31I mean, hopefully he can get the car dropped by like 615 and be at a bar at 630,
01:37and I will be waiting for him there.
01:39Well, you discount the fact that he's played important hockey in meccas such as Des Moines,
01:46Iowa, and Albuquerque.
01:48So maybe he does know a little bit more than you give him credit for.
01:54I have Sabres, too, guys.
01:56I did it.
01:56Minus 115.
01:58Okay.
02:00Any, like, pragmatic reason for that, or is it emotion?
02:04Which, both, maybe?
02:05I just think they're better.
02:06I think they're better, and, you know, Swayman has been sort of enigmatic,
02:11as we've seen over the course of this series.
02:13He's been either really, really good or really, really bad,
02:16and I just don't think he's going to play that well in back-to-back games.
02:21You know, the Bees definitely have been an interesting team in the playoffs
02:25the last few years at home.
02:26Like, they've had some stinkers, including the last game that we saw in Boston.
02:30Not that what happened last home game means anything for tonight's game,
02:35but I just think if the Sabres play their game, they're the better team,
02:38you're going to need some of your heavy hitters to get on the score sheet,
02:42though, that's for sure.
02:42And that was, I guess, my first question.
02:44Like, who do we like to score tonight for Buffalo?
02:48I mean, Zucker is due.
02:49I had him in Game 5.
02:51He gets a bad break in overtime from scoring a series winner,
02:55but he's all around it.
02:57I don't know him to be injured or anything.
02:58The ice time is there.
02:59I had him to score one or even two goals in every game of the series up to Tuesday night.
03:06I just kept waiting for that to happen.
03:08Power play is going to break through.
03:09He'll get one there, maybe an empty netter, whatever, and that hasn't happened.
03:14I like Josh Norris, Sam.
03:16This is a guy that was injured very early in the series and I think played through it until he
03:22couldn't anymore and then was removed.
03:24And the guy that went in for him was excellent, but now he's hurt.
03:27And Norris, I guess, is healthy.
03:30And I think that can be a very impactful, good hockey player that a lot of people have sort of
03:34kind of given up on, I think.
03:37And I'm sort of banking on him tonight, which, you know, might be risky.
03:42But I haven't put anything in yet.
03:44But when I do, it's going to be maybe like two or three points for him tonight.
03:49Goal and two assists or something.
03:51It is fun, the psychology of, because we all look at it differently.
03:55I mean, we all have the same thing in front of us, but, eh, ooh, right?
04:00Like, you see something you like and it just pops up.
04:02So, Mike's on Zucker.
04:04You're on Norris.
04:05I liken Alex Tuck at 2-1.
04:09And I would be lying if I said I haven't looked at him to score the first goal at 12
04:14-1.
04:16Is there any strategy to that first goal versus any time?
04:20Nope, none.
04:23More exciting.
04:25It is, except your night can be over pretty quick if you've got it in like a five-leg thing.
04:30It's just like, okay, well, I guess that's so much for that.
04:33Man, we'll get into Norris as we go through the day.
04:35I wish I had that kind of confidence.
04:37You know, he was a goal scorer maybe more than anything else when he played for Ottawa.
04:43And this year, I think he was doing better than fans thought.
04:47But a lot of it was playmaking.
04:49Like, he was more of in a setup role or mindset.
04:53And I wonder what tonight is.
04:55But, yeah, like, Sam, you're this way, I think.
04:58You're wired this way.
04:59Like, it's the playoffs.
05:00You might get to overtime again.
05:02Somebody's got to beat the goalie.
05:04And on that play, I referenced.
05:06Zucker actually didn't do it.
05:07Thompson had tons of chances.
05:09Didn't do it.
05:10Somebody's got to do it.
05:11Pasternak did it in that game.
05:13And so the Sabres are going to need somebody that can do more than just, you know,
05:18win the possession stats and keep the puck in.
05:21But actually beat the goalie and turn that light on.
05:24And I wouldn't want to get too cute with a goal bet.
05:27Because maybe Samuelson's the only other guy I thought of that might be fun.
05:31And he's more of a long shot.
05:32But he's shown the ability to do that.
05:34Did it in game one to win it.
05:36So I wouldn't want to get too carried away with long shots.
05:40For sure.
05:41I understand.
05:42And it's just, it's a fun bet.
05:43I think when you look at first goal, not that you brought up first goal, but, you know,
05:47first goal, you bet 10 bucks to win 100.
05:50I mean, it's like some people like that.
05:52You're certainly gambling.
05:54It's basically a game of glorified roulette on ice.
05:58I have no idea who's going to score the first goal.
06:01But it's just a bet that, you know, you're in and out.
06:03You get it over with.
06:04And you see what happens.
06:05I have no idea what to do with the total five and a half.
06:08Like, I'm inclined to think that we could squeak over like a four to two final with an empty net.
06:14But I don't love the total.
06:16I think it's a great number.
06:17Obviously, games get lower as we progress.
06:20We saw some sixes for most of this series.
06:23But games do get tighter and legs are tired when we get to game six and seven.
06:27So five and a half makes total sense.
06:29And I just hope the boys win.
06:30I hope Owen has a great trip.
06:32And I hope you guys are on to the next round.
06:34Swear to God.
06:35Five and a half, you can't win it on an overtime goal either.
06:38Six, you know, if it's 3-3, you know, you're going to win.
06:42It's the playoffs.
06:43But five and a half, it's 2-2, you're dead.
06:46And, you know, so it's a little bit, not sure what that means to the math.
06:49But you don't have that luxury, I guess, if that's one way to put it.
06:53Sam Panijatovic with us.
06:55Zucker plus 1,900 to score first, by the way, at FanDuel.
06:59I think I'll play that.
07:01Talk me into a fun bet.
07:03We have the Jack Adams Award finalists.
07:06Ruff, Cooper, Dan Mews in Pittsburgh.
07:09I knew it wasn't going to be today that the award was announced.
07:12But I saw the notification, Jack Adams Award.
07:15Like, no, I know it's not going to be today.
07:17But, you know, so far, so good on that one.
07:21I have a notification in my calendar for June, is it 6th or 7th?
07:28Just says Jack Adams.
07:30Basically, it's in my calendar, along with other dates in my calendar,
07:35like National Tight End Day, so I don't forget that every year.
07:39Joe O actually told me about that last year.
07:41He's like, I put it in the family calendar.
07:43My wife said, what is National Tight End Day?
07:46He goes, babe, we didn't make a lot of money that day when we bet tight ends
07:48and score touchdowns.
07:50But I think it's – I hate to use the word wrap, but I think it's a wrap.
07:56I think it's his award to lose.
07:57I'd be surprised if he didn't pull it.
08:00Right.
08:01I've got to get back to you on this calendar idea,
08:04but I can't say it on the air yet.
08:05It's just something else that triggered when you talked about that.
08:09I have – I guess I could go this far.
08:10We have one of those, Sam – is it called mix play?
08:15Like a little frame, a picture frame that you plug in,
08:18and it's pictures from your phone, like family pictures, right?
08:21So you sit there at the Thanksgiving table, and the frame is out.
08:24It's just pictures of memories and your kids getting bigger.
08:28And one time I replaced them all with lineups.
08:31I took all the kids out and just put in my fantasy lineups,
08:35just hoping that somebody – nobody even indulged me.
08:37I don't think they'd look at it.
08:38My kids are embarrassed.
08:39Their friends come over.
08:40They're all little in these pictures, but I got a kick out of it.
08:46DK Horse.
08:47So Derby weekend, the Oaks today, the Derby tomorrow.
08:50What are we doing?
08:51So I got three guys I rely on for horses.
08:54I'm not a horse handicapper, but I handicap the handicappers, as you guys know.
08:58We've been doing this for some time now.
09:00My three best guys like these three horses.
09:04The eight, so happy, the 12, Chief Wallaby, and the 15, Emerging Market.
09:13So I played around with those numbers, eight, 12, and 15.
09:17I have a little bit of all of them to win.
09:20I have the 15 win-play show, and then I took a five-horse box,
09:27a $2 exacto box, $40.
09:30You've got to hit one, two on top.
09:33Seven, eight, nine, 12, and 15.
09:37I'm not going to sit here and give you closing speed and read the racing form.
09:42These are the guys that are very good at it.
09:44And then this morning, I'm listening to the score in Chicago,
09:46and my buddy Eddie Olchek's like, I like the 15, Emerging Market.
09:51I'm like, let's go, let's go.
09:52So Eddie is on 15, too.
09:55In the story that I sent you guys that I wrote up for Fox,
09:57I wrote that yesterday, and I put on top, Emerging Market win-play show.
10:02When you hear Eddie come on a radio show on Friday and say,
10:05I like Emerging Market, I'm like, there's my guy.
10:08There he is.
10:09So those are the three, the eight, the 12, and the 15.
10:13And I've exacto boxed seven, eight, nine, 12, and 15.
10:17I need any order to finish first and second of that stable.
10:22I miss Hank's Bank.
10:23Do they do on NBC with the derby coverage something akin to Hank's Bank where they just,
10:28Olchek maybe would be the one?
10:30Or that other guy?
10:31A pot of money, like how to appropriate it?
10:33There's somebody named Kenny.
10:34They just bet all day and keep track of their results.
10:38I feel like when I've seen Olchek on horse racing coverage, he wins.
10:45He hit the trifecta.
10:47I was living in Vegas at the time, and I was working for a station that basically paid
10:51me nothing.
10:52So it wasn't great for a short period of time.
10:55But I had some buddies in town.
10:57They were all crashing into my apartment, and it was the week of the Kentucky Derby.
11:01And whatever money we had, we pulled together.
11:04It was like $300, $400.
11:05And we tailed Eddie's trifecta.
11:08Guys, he drilled it in order.
11:10One, two, three.
11:11That $500 turned into like $13,000.
11:15It was insane.
11:16I tell Eddie that story every so often.
11:19He's been doing this a long, long time.
11:21But he extended a boys' trip in Vegas and didn't even know it back in 2018.
11:27Yeah, I mean, that's a beauty right there.
11:30I'm not sure if baseball is on the brain, Sam, but St. Louis is good.
11:36St. Louis was supposed to be maybe a win total in the high 60s even, low 70s, which jumped
11:42out at me because they're never really bad.
11:45And I have a friend in St. Louis who's like, yep, they've got nothing.
11:48I got them at 18 and 13.
11:50Pretty good start.
11:51Are you doing anything with baseball at this point?
11:55I haven't done a ton.
11:56I mean, we know about the bets that I've made on the White Sox over the win total.
12:00That's looking better.
12:01They're starting to hit the ball.
12:02I had to wedge the White Sox into this question, Mike, of course.
12:05Yes.
12:0514 and 17, though.
12:07And they got like the guy who was leading the league in home runs last week, Murakami,
12:12has been an unbelievable story.
12:13I think the lesson is, you know, it's every year for the last seven years, it's been two
12:20teams that the market sort of goes against, and I never understand why.
12:25The Cardinals and the Tampa Bay Rays.
12:29Every year, oh, Tampa?
12:30No, Tampa, this is the year.
12:32This is the year they fall apart, and you look at Tampa's a game and a half behind the
12:36Yankees, 18 and 12.
12:37Yep.
12:38I mean, these organizations, they're just so good at finding and developing talent.
12:45And I had a scout in Chicago about 10 years ago when I was covering the Sox and Cubs.
12:49He goes, when the Rays call you or they're trying to dump a player, hang up.
12:54Because if the Rays can't get any more water out of the sponge, that player's done.
12:59They're just shrewd dealmakers.
13:01They develop well.
13:02Those are the two stories in Vegas, the two teams that were supposed to be bad and that
13:06wise guys were betting against and betting under.
13:09Tampa and St. Louis.
13:10They continue to do it.
13:11And with Tampa, it feels like it's every single year.
13:13The Cardinals are a version, just an older version of the Rays in this way, where you
13:19might not really, the pedigree might not stand out, but it's just an organization that for
13:25the most part, most years, you can trust.
13:28So a good start for them.
13:29Yes, always bet the Rays.
13:30Never bet against the Rays.
13:32I agree with that.
13:33All right, Sam, anything else?
13:35Their win total was like 77 and a half.
13:38I mean, they're on pace for like 87 wins.
13:40It's crazy.
13:41White Sox a game and a half out of first.
13:43That's my bet, is the playoffs.
13:44They'd probably have to get there.
13:46It's kind of jarring when you turn a ball game on and see like nobody at a Cardinals game.
13:51Yeah.
13:51That happened already once earlier this year.
13:53Maybe that'll turn around if this good start continues.
13:56You would think.
13:56But it's really sort of a freak out.
13:58Like at my lifetime, I feel like that ballpark is always at least three quarters full.
14:04They just went to Pittsburgh and won four this week.
14:07Sam, you want to hear the parlay for tonight?
14:08I put it together while we were talking.
14:11I do.
14:13That's a rhetorical question if I ever heard one.
14:15Yeah.
14:16Norris, anytime goal.
14:17Norris, three points.
14:19Sabres, minus one and a half.
14:21And then I threw two Darlene assists on there.
14:2430% profit boost.
14:2620 bucks wins you almost $3,500.
14:30Man.
14:30If you get there on Norris, you're my hero.
14:33Yeah.
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