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00:00We did call you about the Chiefs and the AFC picture here as we work our way through the offseason,
00:05Matt.
00:06I mean, Rashi Rice is a big part of this analysis for sure, whatever his situation turns out to be.
00:12Do you think the Chiefs have, so to speak, the horses this year to get back to the top?
00:23So, I've been asked a lot over the last, I don't know, two months, you know, post-draft, let's just
00:28say.
00:28And I think it's a complicated answer, because on one hand, I would tell you that their receivers, it's got
00:39to scare you.
00:39If you're a Chiefs fan, it's got to scare you.
00:41First of all, okay, all three of them, Rice, Worthy, Thornton, all have injury issues.
00:49All three.
00:50Now, Worthy was kind of a fluke, weird thing last year, but he played through it all year.
00:55He wasn't the guy he was his rookie year.
00:58He just couldn't move.
00:59His shoulder wasn't right.
01:00His ankle wasn't right.
01:01Thornton had a lot of injuries in New England.
01:03It was just one of the reasons he ended up leaving there.
01:05And Rashi Rice has dealt with, yeah, he blew his knee out.
01:08You're going to Mahomes actually hit him, trying to tackle a defender.
01:12So, you have that.
01:13They have no depth behind any of these guys.
01:15Like, the number four receiver on the team is Jalen Royals, who they wouldn't even play last year in garbage
01:19time,
01:20because they were so busy getting Juju Schmidt-Schuster 90% of the reps the last two months of the
01:24season.
01:26That, I think, is the big question.
01:28Like, look, the offensive line is the one misnomer.
01:30The offensive line is actually really good.
01:33It just needs to be healthy.
01:34And last year, it wasn't.
01:36Simmons was in and out of the lineup.
01:37He broke his hand.
01:38But their offensive line, their health is really good.
01:40They should run the ball to Walker.
01:42They've got Mahomes.
01:43Everybody internally expects to be ready to roll week one, pretty much full go, probably a little limitation on scrambling.
01:49And Kelsey's still Kelsey, but it's, can they stay healthy at receiver?
01:54I think they need to add another body, whether it's Keenan Allen, Debo Samuel, somebody like that.
01:58They need to do something there, because right now, the number one receiver doesn't have the luxury of freedom.
02:03Like, the man is in prison coming off of a knee surgery.
02:06You can't, I mean, that's crazy.
02:08Like, you can't go into the season if I'm good about that.
02:10Yeah.
02:11Is there, do you know, Matt, is there any threat of, like, how top of mind is any league action
02:19on Rice?
02:22To my understanding, and look, this stuff's always where we all know how the NFL works.
02:26I mean, it's hour to hour with the league.
02:27But my understanding is they don't expect any league action.
02:30That there's not an expectation that he's going to be suspended or anything like that.
02:35And so, you know, they think, look, he should be, in theory, ready to go, you know, for the first
02:40day of training camp.
02:41I mean, really, you know, it was a minor cleanup of his knee.
02:44It was just to remove a couple of his bodies.
02:46It wasn't a major surgery.
02:47It was a pretty minor surgery that he had.
02:49So the thought is, yeah, he'll be back.
02:52You know, the reason earlier that I, the last question, I think the answer's complicated, is that look at the
02:57AFC.
02:58And while I think the Chiefs have a lot of questions, I also would say that about any team in
03:04the conference.
03:05Like, I don't know that there's a team that I look, and by the way, I, after the A.J.
03:09Brown trade, I was asked at S.I.L.,
03:12hey, do a flash power rankings here, top five teams in the AFC.
03:14I put the Bills one.
03:15Because I think, look, Allen's, if not 1A, he's 1B at quarterback.
03:21And he's healthy.
03:22Which, with Mahomes, you know, look, they could think he's going to be healthy all they want.
03:25They don't know that until he actually steps out there and does it.
03:28You know, but the Bills have questions.
03:30What is the defense going to look like?
03:31Switching schemes.
03:32The receivers are a big question in Buffalo.
03:34You're an injury away from, you know, who knows who the hell's second and third receivers.
03:38First-time head coach, yeah.
03:40Right, exactly.
03:41And that's just it.
03:42Like, I would bet on those two teams before I bet on anybody else because of the quarterbacks and the
03:47pedigree.
03:47But, you know, I'm not a big fan of the Ravens this year.
03:50I'm just not.
03:51Maybe they proved me wrong.
03:52I just think outside of three guys on offense, they're extremely thin.
03:56I don't trust the line.
03:57The Bengals don't have a defense.
03:58The Texans don't have an offense.
04:01Jacksonville, I think, is good.
04:03But I think they're kind of – they have a little bit of a ceiling.
04:06Denver – Denver's the team if you want to make the case.
04:10But, again, I look at Denver.
04:12My question is, like, with Bo Nix, are you going to – in a normal year, are you going to
04:17be able to consistently beat top 13 for him as your quarterback?
04:20I don't know.
04:20So, the AFC is wide open.
04:22So, in that regard, I think, yeah, sure.
04:23Could the Chiefs get back to a Super Bowl?
04:25I mean, yeah.
04:26But it's – you know, a lot of things are going to have to go right.
04:29But I'd also say at about seven different teams in the AFC, a lot's going to have to go right
04:32for them to get back there.
04:33So, it's a wide open conference.
04:35As we, as it happens, discovered earlier in this show today, because Bulldog and I both made division winner parlay
04:42bets.
04:43And you definitely want to go with me on this, because mine paid a lot better, even though they weren't
04:48really that much more of underdogs.
04:49It just randomly happened to, you know, work out in that direction.
04:53I went with the Chargers in that division, but I'm – and this is nothing against the Chiefs or even
04:58much about the Chiefs.
05:00Because Denver, you had – it was in your voice, Matt.
05:03Like, I feel like the right people are trying to talk me into Denver a little bit.
05:08Like, that the roster is – we had an off-the-field incident with one of their players today to
05:12talk about Cooper.
05:14Yeah, yeah.
05:14But, I don't know.
05:16Like, there's something about Knicks.
05:18Maybe we just haven't – and maybe we never will, or I never will – come all the way to,
05:23okay, he's good.
05:24Yeah.
05:25Because, you know, he was drafted, and there was a certain, you know, things said about, like, he might only
05:32be this good as a player or the prospect.
05:34And how he played college football for 14 years.
05:36Yeah, just like – I don't know.
05:37Maybe eventually I'm going to have to capitulate on him.
05:42I think, you know, every year I do the quarterback rankings at SI, and it's like a monthly thing during
05:48the season.
05:48And I usually do them right before the season starts.
05:50And I have him just smack dab in the middle of the league.
05:55Every time I do it, he's between 15 and 17, 14 and 18.
06:00Like, he's just – he's fine.
06:02Which, by the way, if you have a lights-out defense, and you've got two really good receivers now, and
06:07you've got Sean Payton, like, fine.
06:10And, by the way, maybe the best offensive line in the NFL.
06:13Like, fine is enough.
06:14Go ask the Seahawks about fine the quarterback.
06:16Like, fine can work.
06:18Look, but, you know, the thing with that is where if you're the Bills, if you're the Chiefs with a
06:23healthy Mahomes, you can cover a lot of sins because of those guys.
06:28I mean, you just – you don't have to be perfect.
06:31You just have to be reasonable around those guys, and you're going to win a lot of football games.
06:36Whereas, in Denver, they're going to have to be damn near perfect around it.
06:39They just are.
06:40They're going to have to be really good defensive.
06:41Actually, I believe the AFC West – I honestly, if you said to me, you've got to bet your house,
06:46who would you take?
06:48I'd pick the Chiefs from the standpoint I genuinely believe that the ceiling's the highest with them.
06:55Because of Mahomes, I think they're going to run the ball well.
06:57I think BNME replacing Nagy is a massive thing.
07:00I don't think people understand outside the building what a huge deal is.
07:03That is – the accountability factor on that offense is going to go from zero to about 180 with BNME.
07:10But, you know, the Chargers – the question I have with the Chargers is very simple.
07:15Do they have enough with that offense?
07:17Like, Herbert is talented, but what is – we're, I think, this is year seven of his career.
07:22What is the moment for Justin Herbert?
07:23What is it?
07:25Like, what is he – like, what moment is there?
07:27And then you look at the offense.
07:28There's Lad McConkie, and it's the three of us at receiver.
07:31Like, who is doing something?
07:34Like, who's going to make a play?
07:36Like, that's – it's all fine and well that they want to run the heck out of the ball,
07:40Mike McDaniel and Harbaugh.
07:42But at some point in the playoffs, and we all know this, you're going to get third and eight.
07:47And you're just going to have to make a – somebody's going to have to win and get open.
07:50And to me, it's like you double McConkie.
07:51Who is it?
07:52Trey Harris?
07:53Like, I – so that's a concern I have with the Chargers.
07:55It's just – I don't know that they have enough.
07:57But, listen, they're as good a bet as anybody else.
08:00This Herbert point is strong.
08:02And I like him a lot, but it's time, right?
08:05And this is also Trevor Lawrence for me.
08:08The Bills went to –
08:09Yes.
08:09Went to Jacksonville in the playoffs.
08:11And I always felt like maybe I was being a little bit unfair, but very winnable game.
08:17There was a short yardage play where he sort of falls down before the –
08:20Fourth down.
08:21Yeah.
08:22The yard run down is deep in the Bills' territory.
08:24Yeah, yeah, yeah.
08:25Like, I want to scoff at QB wins 95% of the time, but then there are times when I
08:32just need you to figure it out right here.
08:35And that's what some guys have been able to do, others not.
08:39I'm 37, so I'm supposed to be, like, in the middle of that, like, analytics, like me and the nerds
08:45all hang out and get together and talk about what nerds we are and how much we love some acronym
08:50of a stat that has seven letters and a plus sign.
08:54Like, look, like, DVOA's fine, EPA's fine, but I really believe – I actually do believe in QB wins to
09:05an extent.
09:05Now, I don't believe in – listen, if you put some great quarterback on a really crappy team, I'm not
09:09holding it against the guy.
09:11If you go seven – like, Joe Burrow, what is Joe Burrow supposed to do?
09:14Well, it's not his fault to give up 50 points a game.
09:17Like, there's nothing he can do about that.
09:19But I do believe it matters when you get to, like you mentioned, the Lawrence game, right, with the Bills,
09:25or it's a close game, or Herbert, who has had many of these games down the stretch where it's like,
09:29hey, man, I need you to make, I don't know, two plays, three plays.
09:33I need you to do it.
09:34You're getting paid $16 million a year.
09:37I need you to go out.
09:39And I don't care if the window to throw that ball is the shoebox 20 yards down the field.
09:45You need to hit it.
09:46That's your job.
09:47That's what you're here for.
09:48And if the receiver drops it, fine, it's on him.
09:50You need to throw the ball in there.
09:51Don't tell me about some hand in your face.
09:53Don't tell me about the fact that some guy was going to get pressure in half a second.
09:57Throw it.
09:58Hit him.
09:59And, like, the problem I have with Herbert is all these years later, here we are.
10:02He's only three in the playoffs.
10:03He's been awful in all three of these games.
10:05And at some point – I mean, everybody's throwing every year.
10:08Everybody picks him every year, and you still look up, and you're like, oh, yeah, right, the Chargers.
10:12They went nine and eight again.
10:14And they're fine.
10:15And that's kind of it.
10:16You know, like, sure, Allen hasn't gotten a Super Bowl yet.
10:20Lamar hasn't gotten a Super Bowl yet.
10:21But those guys have had huge – to be fair, especially Allen in the playoffs,
10:25he's had enormous games where he's gone toe-to-toe with a dynasty.
10:29The Chargers, I mean, they're not going toe-to-toe with anybody.
10:33I mean, at some point, you need to win.
10:36You need to do something.
10:38And I just think we're at that point.
10:40He needs to win a football game that doesn't take place when it's 70 degrees outside.
10:46With Matt Vertoram.
10:48Back to Kansas City, Kenneth Walker.
10:50This is kind of a piggyback point to your last comments about just how analytics-minded we all want to
10:57be,
10:57or are inclined to be as analysts.
11:00So he's a running back, though, right?
11:02Here's the Super Bowl MVP coming from Seattle to Kansas City.
11:06Do you think he will get huge work in that role for the investment the Chiefs have made here,
11:11and how much of a difference does he make?
11:14Well, so I have two schools of thought in this, so I'll be brief.
11:18But one of which is they have talked internally, just from me talking to people in that building,
11:23about how much they are going to commit to running the ball,
11:25how much they are really going to do everything in their power,
11:29to be a team that really tries to take advantage of having a top, let's call them 10-ish back,
11:35and an offensive line that can move people.
11:37You've got Creed Humphrey.
11:38You've got Trey Smith.
11:39You've got Josh Simmons.
11:40Like, this is an offensive line that they're going to blow up in holes.
11:44I mean, you watched this all last year.
11:45They were holes.
11:46The problem was they had two guys who just couldn't hit them.
11:48They couldn't run.
11:50I think the Chiefs, especially with Mullins coming off the injury,
11:52there is going to be an emphasis on, hey, we are going to get him in more second and five.
11:57I think that's been a big thing over the last few years with Kansas City,
12:00that internally they've talked a lot about, is the fact he's constantly in second and nine.
12:05They're constantly in third and seven, because they just can't run.
12:09And so, I do think they're going to make the investment.
12:11The question I have with the Chiefs is, even with Eric Danemi there,
12:16who's always going to be pro-running, he was a running back in the NFL,
12:19is Andy going to stick to that?
12:21Or are you going to get into these games where they fall behind 10-3,
12:25and Andy just says, I'm just going to call 24 pass plays on the next 26 downs?
12:30Like, that has always kind of been the question.
12:32And God knows if you're doing it, like, on one hand, how much can you criticize?
12:36And he's got Patrick Mahomes.
12:37Like, you're really going to criticize him for putting the ball in his hands?
12:39But I do think they have lacked balance at times.
12:43And so, I think the goal is definitely going to be, hey,
12:47we're never going to be 50-50 run pass.
12:51But can you get it to where it's 57-43, 55?
12:56I do think they're going to make the effort.
12:59I'm curious to see if they actually stick with it when they're challenged on it.
13:03Do you think the enemy has the, I don't know,
13:06does he have the game to, like, push Reed on that, to challenge him on that, or no?
13:15Well, look, at the end of the year last year, they essentially told Matt and Aggie,
13:22we're not going to make it a big, hey, you're fired.
13:26But, like, we're not going to renew your contract.
13:28So, we're going to let you go out and look for a job.
13:31And if you get a head coaching job, if you had a few interviews, hey, great.
13:33We're thrilled for you.
13:35But we're not holding the job.
13:36If he wanted to go back to Kansas City, it wasn't going to happen.
13:39They were waiting on the enemy.
13:41In fact, I covered the game when the Bears lost to the Rams.
13:44Within 12 hours of that game being over, the enemy was headed to Kansas City.
13:49I mean, that was, the Chiefs were just waiting.
13:52And because, you know, there's been, there has been a lack of accountability in that building
13:57for years now.
13:58I mean, the enemy left after they beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl.
14:00And that offense has gone backward every year.
14:02And every year, if you look at them, there have been a rise in penalties.
14:06There have been a rise in mental errors.
14:08If you watch the film, their route running is atrocious.
14:10They constantly round off routes.
14:12They don't run them at the right depth.
14:13And there's been nothing done about it.
14:15They brought in the enemy for that express purpose.
14:17The enemy loves to be the bad cop.
14:20And I think with Andy, Andy doesn't want to do that.
14:23Now, with Andy, like, would he go to Andy and actually, yeah.
14:26I mean, that's part of the reason they brought him back is he will, he's not, he's not going
14:30to call the plays, but he's going to install it every week.
14:33And he has a lot of pull.
14:35Andy trusts him with a lot of different challenges that come up throughout the course of the game,
14:41course of the week.
14:42And so, yeah, I mean, they, they will give him more power than they've given a previous
14:47coaches.
14:48And I think that's one of the biggest reasons, A, he came back and B, one of the biggest
14:52reasons they went out and got him.
14:53A couple of minutes here left with Matt Vertoram, SI Now, the Matt Vertoram show on Patreon as
14:59well.
14:59Bills versus Patriots in the AFC East.
15:02Matt, we talked about New England's schedule last year to death, and they definitely made
15:07the most of it.
15:08Do you see a significant step back?
15:10Not one?
15:11How about it for the AFC East?
15:15I think they're going to take a step back.
15:16I don't, I don't have them as one of my seven playoff teams.
15:19And I actually did last year.
15:20I think they're going to the Super Bowl, but I had them as a, as a wildcard team.
15:24Look, AJ Brown is a terrific addition.
15:27And if he's, you know, if he's locked in, he's motivated, he's a guy that could absolutely
15:31have, you know, 1,300 yards.
15:33The problem I have with New England is I still don't like the offensive line.
15:37You know, low move, first round pick, we'll see.
15:39You know, did you get a starting job?
15:40He does.
15:41You know, how did he play right off the, off the jump?
15:44I don't love, that roster though to me is, it's fine.
15:46It's a, it's a quality roster.
15:48I'm not saying it's bad of any stretch.
15:50Their schedule last year was really easy.
15:52Their schedule this year is brutal.
15:54I mean, you look at the road schedule.
15:56The Patriots playing this year, that's one of the hardest schedules in football.
15:59I mean, that easy.
16:00They've got to go to Seattle.
16:01Obviously got to go to Buffalo.
16:02Got to go to Kansas City.
16:03I mean, they have, they just want to say next.
16:06It's two real easy games to have on the road.
16:08It's just in that office.
16:10But I think, I think it will be a little bit of a struggle.
16:12And also too, not to be funny or glib, like I genuinely mean this, everything that happened
16:18with Mike Rable this off season, that is going to be a distraction all year long.
16:23And it is especially going to be a distraction on the road.
16:25I would imagine they're going to hear plenty of chants on the road this year.
16:29That is going to be a circus.
16:31Like, I don't see any world where that story just goes away.
16:36That's going to be something that is every single time they go on the road, especially
16:40for a primetime game, something like that.
16:42So, I think it's tough.
16:43But I think the Bills are the better team.
16:44I would, I would be surprised if the Bills don't get back to the top spot.
16:49Can you rattle off your seven, your playoff teams?
16:53So, New England's not one of them.
16:54Go ahead.
16:56So, Buffalo, I have win the division.
16:59I think, I'm going to take Pittsburgh to win the North.
17:02I think they have a hard ceiling with Rodgers, but I think they'll win the North.
17:05I'll take Jacksonville and Houston in some water in that division.
17:09I think they'll make the playoffs.
17:10I have Kansas City and Denver.
17:11And then for the seven team, I'll take Cincinnati.
17:14I think it's those.
17:15I don't think Baltimore and England are going to make the playoffs.
17:16I don't think Georgia is going to make the playoffs.
17:18I think all of them could.
17:19Wouldn't be shocked by any means.
17:22But those would be my seven as we sit here on June, whatever it is, 5th.
17:25June 5th.
17:26Yeah, Cincinnati, speaking of schedules, favored in 15 games.
17:31I mean, the schedule's a joke.
17:32It's crazy.
17:33Yeah.
17:33I mean, we'll see if that pans out.
17:35But pretty good looking on paper.
17:38Thank you, Matt.
17:40Enjoy your summer.
17:40And maybe we'll talk again closer to week one.
17:44Sounds good.
17:45I'll be at Bills camp, I imagine, at some point.
17:47So, I'll see you there.
17:48Good.
17:48Yeah.
17:49Good deal.
17:49Thanks, man.
17:50Matt Vertoram on the Western Hotline.
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