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00:00With us on the Western Hotline is our friend Sam Paniotovic.
00:04You know him as a knowledgeable betting enthusiast.
00:08He's with Fox.
00:09He loves a tomato on a hot dog.
00:12I mean, and the celery salt or whatever else is going on there.
00:15Chicago will do that to you.
00:16All right, Sam, well, you've been listening.
00:18What can you tell us, please?
00:21Well, the disparity is real.
00:25Because I ran into the same thing when Mike said,
00:28we're going to do this day, we're going to build a parlay.
00:30I went to FanDuel, and I'm like, that payout sucks.
00:33Yeah.
00:34Because I took eight teams and wheeled them, $10 to win $4,600.
00:40And then I go over to DraftKings, make the same bet, eight teams,
00:45$10 to win $125,000.
00:48Right.
00:49You always say shop around.
00:52You will tell us what the odds are.
00:55You're looking at a spreadsheet with all the books.
00:58And shop around, shop around, shop around, you frequently will mention odds
01:02at like three, four, five different places.
01:03This is the most glaring example of that I have ever heard.
01:09Sam, we make this bet.
01:10I've made this bet every year since gambling's been legal in New York State.
01:15And it's never paid.
01:17The eight team parlay has never put, on a $10 bet,
01:21has never paid less than $25,000.
01:23And it's like, with a profit boost, it said like $5,500.
01:27So I'm like, what is happening?
01:29I'm not making that bet.
01:30That's ridiculous.
01:33It's insane.
01:34I mean, again, same bet, two different places.
01:38One book's going to pay me $4,600.
01:40Another one's going to pay me $125,000.
01:42It's not even a conversation.
01:43I mean, you know what to do.
01:45Let me tell you this, though.
01:46How about this?
01:46If you go to BetMGM, they don't even let you parlay division winners.
01:50Well, let's not go there.
01:51Yeah, that doesn't sound like any fun.
01:53Ever.
01:53Let's rule that out.
01:54Ever.
01:55Let's just rule that right out.
01:59Does it make sense at all?
02:01Are there certain combinations?
02:03Bulldog was toying around with different things.
02:05And some of them, they wouldn't even let him do.
02:07Yeah, right.
02:08Sam, I initially had Philadelphia, and Mike had Dallas.
02:11And I thought, well, let me just change that
02:12and see how much that moves the meter.
02:14And when I did that, I got the
02:16some of your bets cannot be combined message.
02:19Changing the Eagles for the Cowboys to win the NFC East.
02:23What's disqualifying?
02:24What are we doing here, FanDuel?
02:26Like, what in the world?
02:28Who's at the wheel?
02:29It's not okay.
02:31Come on, Sam.
02:32I don't know what to tell you.
02:35All I can tell you is I'm going to make the bet
02:37that's going to make me $125,000, not $4,000.
02:40That's all I can tell you.
02:41Right.
02:42And then I go over to MGM, and I'm like, I clicked Buffalo.
02:45And then I clicked, I went Steelers in the AFC North
02:48because, you know, we all know they're going to go 10 and 7 somehow.
02:52Like, I don't know how, but it's going to happen.
02:54And I clicked Bills.
02:55I clicked Steelers.
02:57And it gave me the, basically, the red zing sign.
02:59You know?
03:00Nope.
03:00You shall not pass.
03:02Yeah.
03:02So, yeah, I only have, let's see, I did, well,
03:06because I'm a glutton for punishment, I put the Bills in there, of course.
03:11I have the Bills, the Texans, and the Lions.
03:14So I have three favorites of the eight.
03:19I'm struggling to sort of move on because this has to make sense in some way.
03:24I mean, these people know what they're doing, FanDuel, DraftKings.
03:30I mean, it's not a glitch.
03:32You're not saying that, I think.
03:34But is there some explanation for why?
03:37Is it that, for example, Sam,
03:40too many other people already have put Buffalo and Pittsburgh together,
03:43so there's, like, a liability factor that would, you know,
03:49tell us that you can't do this?
03:50Does it, I'm struggling to move away from this
03:53because I still want to make some sense of it.
03:56I don't have any reason why a book wouldn't take an eight-leg parlay.
04:00Like, it doesn't make any sense.
04:02Because, like, let's be real.
04:04It's probably going to lose.
04:05Right.
04:06So why won't you take, I'm trying to give you my money.
04:11Right.
04:11You don't want to take my eight-leg parlay
04:15where I have to correctly predict the winner of every single division in the NFL.
04:20It's, I don't want to say it's impossible, but it's a bet you should take as a sportsbook guy.
04:26Like, if you're a trader in any of these rooms, you take that bet.
04:29It's basically free cheese for the house.
04:32Yeah.
04:35I really can't believe the disparity, though, between the DraftKings and the FanDuel.
04:39I mean, we're talking six figures on the same bet.
04:42Right.
04:43Yeah, we're adding a zero over here on my side of the room.
04:45Yeah, I've never, when we first started, I don't know if you were listening, Sam,
04:48I'm like, he's like 70, I'm like, you're sure it's not 7,900?
04:51Because, like, I'm at 54, and, like, the odds don't all match, and, like, maybe that's,
04:55no, 79,000.
04:58All right, yeah, I don't care.
04:58I showed you both.
04:59Yep.
05:00You both have seen the shot, the screenshot.
05:02Yep, yeah.
05:03Sam, are there, if I may turn the wheel a little bit,
05:08are there division bets that you like here?
05:11So it seems like you can do, as we're sort of fooling around with these,
05:15almost anything you want.
05:16Matt, what is interesting about my potential payout is there's nobody stupid on there.
05:21Like, I think there's a makeable argument.
05:23You don't have the dolphins on there or anything.
05:25Right, so I don't think there's anything insane here.
05:28I mean, you're going to like a good price, too.
05:30Are there a couple of teams that you especially do like for this bet?
05:35So, full disclosure, I haven't made any division bets yet,
05:39but it's getting to be that time.
05:42I mean, we're already into June, and we're going to be talking serious football
05:45as we get closer to July and August, so you might as well start getting warmed up.
05:49I think, hmm, I think all things considered,
05:53my favorite bet would be Seattle at 2-1-ish, like 2-0-5 or 2-10.
05:59I mean, you're just paying such a premium on the Rams.
06:02I mean, it's just like, and everybody knows that, you know,
06:05Miles Garrett's a Ram, and now maybe Aaron Donald comes back,
06:08but you have a quarterback who's been hurt a ton in the last couple of years.
06:12So, I'm not saying the Rams are going to miss the playoffs.
06:14I'm not saying the Rams are going to win seven games,
06:16but I don't think there's a full dollar gap between the Rams at even money
06:21and the Seahawks at 2-1.
06:23I mean, their team really didn't lose a whole lot.
06:26So, I do think, I mean, given the strength of their roster,
06:30I love their coach.
06:31I'm a big Mike McDonald fan.
06:33The guy's won everywhere he's been, and the defense has a lot to like.
06:38So, at 2-1, I think that's probably my favorite one, I guess.
06:44Yeah.
06:45The North, Mike said something earlier about the North.
06:48I think the NFC North, like, I could realistically make a case
06:50for all four of those teams.
06:51I mean, Detroit has the best roster.
06:55Green Bay probably has the best defense.
07:00The Bears could have the best coach and quarterback combo.
07:04And if Kevin O'Connell could figure out Kyler Murray,
07:06they got an unbelievable talented roster.
07:09You know, they got a bunch of weapons.
07:10They just didn't have a quarterback last year.
07:11That division, I mean, you could sell me on any of those teams in the NFC North.
07:15I liked Minnesota last year.
07:17We were doing this last year.
07:18But McCarthy was just that bad.
07:20So, didn't get off the ground.
07:23With Sam Pantiotovic.
07:24Hey, Sam, earlier in the week, I don't remember if we knew, but did you take note?
07:30Did the number on the Rams move after the Garrett trade, or did it stay pretty flat?
07:36They went to the Super Bowl favorite, basically, everywhere.
07:40The win total, I don't think the win total moved.
07:45It's hard to move in a full win on one player.
07:48You know what I'm saying?
07:49And then they're already, they're good to begin with.
07:51But if you look at, like, any sports book, like, the Rams are right on top.
07:55So, it sort of cemented them as the, you know, unquestioned favorite.
08:00You know, last year this time, I want to say it was like Baltimore, Buffalo were both 8-1-ish.
08:08And then the Chiefs were 9 or 10.
08:10Now you have a decided drop-off from that first line, where the Rams are, you know, 5-50, 6
08:15-1.
08:16And then everybody else is double digits.
08:18Sam, how did Lindy Ruff lose?
08:21Dude, because Buffalonians can't have nice things, that's why.
08:25Like, what else?
08:26Like, what else do you even say?
08:28The math on that, like, we made such a good bet, and I don't care that it lost.
08:32We made a good bet, because we bet him at 7-1.
08:35And he got all the way out to minus 3,000, which implies a 97% chance that it's going
08:42to happen.
08:43Like, that's one of the, I mean, not from a numbers standpoint, like, money-wise,
08:47because, I mean, what we lose, 50 bucks.
08:49You guys lost 50, I lost a couple hundred.
08:52But that's one of the worst beats in terms of, like, making the right bet, getting a hell of a
08:57number.
08:58They were a tremendous story.
09:00They won a frickin' playoff series.
09:02And he still doesn't win coach of the year?
09:05How?
09:06Does it, well, this really is about you as a person or any of us who gamble.
09:13Does it make you suspicious at all?
09:16Like, there's a reason why New York doesn't let us bet these things, because they're not actual competition.
09:22Not that that can't be rigged either, necessarily.
09:26But, you know, there's a vote here that was in the hopper for weeks, and you could have counted it.
09:32Somebody in charge of it could have known a month ago who had won the vote.
09:36Does it get you that far down the road?
09:39No, I don't.
09:40I try not to think about stuff like that, because I'll go insane if I get down that rabbit hole.
09:44You know, I don't know, man.
09:48Well, it just seems like most times we talked about it.
09:52I would mention, because I'm the goober that's watching TNT every Wednesday when they have their intermissions and their pregame
09:59show.
09:59And same with Sportsnet and TSN and ESPN, like all the major carriers in the U.S. and Canada.
10:05I'm watching that content.
10:06Not every minute of it, but I watch a good amount of it.
10:09And, Sam, the conversation about Coach of the Year on those shows, if there were five people or three people,
10:16someone would mention John Cooper and how outrageous it is that he's never won.
10:21Everyone would nod, and they'd move on to the next award.
10:25Like, no one ever raised their hand and said, like, hey, guys, we're doing the Sabres game tonight.
10:31And, you know, they were buck naked last in the entire conference, you know, in December.
10:37And now they just blew past Tampa.
10:40What about Lindy Ruff?
10:41They just mentioned Cooper and sort of groupthink.
10:44And it just feels like the broadcasters wanted Cooper, and they made it happen.
10:49Yeah.
10:50Yeah, well, that happens.
10:52No doubt about it.
10:53And you did bring that up a couple times because we made the bet in, what, February or March?
10:59Maybe February.
11:00At least.
11:00So we had some runway to talk about it.
11:03Right.
11:03But it's funny because I remember we had this conversation.
11:05I was in Florida at my parents' house, and I said, do you guys want to bet Cooper at five
11:10to one?
11:10And we all said no.
11:12We were all like, nope, we're good.
11:16So maybe there's a lesson for you.
11:18Right.
11:18That I would never do differently, though.
11:21Yeah, that is correct.
11:23I do remember that, too.
11:24I would never just bet against myself.
11:26Like, unless it's big money or something, maybe.
11:29But DK Horse.
11:32DK Horse.
11:33Here we go.
11:34The Belmonts.
11:34Which is at Saratoga, by the way, if you didn't know Bulldog.
11:37Oh, is the Belmont track under construction?
11:40Yes.
11:41Okay.
11:41Next year, they say the Belmont will be back at Belmont.
11:44Do you have thoughts, Sam, on the Belmont stakes?
11:48I got three horse guys.
11:50They all like to favor it.
11:51That's boring, but when they all line up and they all say that this is the best horse and it's
11:56not even close, you just sort of pay attention.
11:58It also kind of makes me nervous, though, because it's never that easy.
12:01You know?
12:02Wink, wink.
12:03But even Eddie Olchek this morning was on Chicago radio saying Renegade is just the class.
12:07So Renegade is the four horse, about six to five right now in race 13 at Saratoga, like you said.
12:15They go back to Belmont Park next year.
12:17So I was looking at a daily double.
12:19You could play Renegade in the 13th race, and then in the 12 race, we like this horse Rhetorical.
12:25He's about, you know, two to one, five to two.
12:29So you go Rhetorical to win the 12, and then Renegade to win the 13.
12:33That pays about six to one.
12:35So that's probably all I'm going to do.
12:37I mean, it's really pop-heavy, like Renegade and then everybody else.
12:40So I wish I had, like, some 30 to one horse for you.
12:44But all my horse guys that handicap this every day, they think Renegade is going to win this running away.
12:51Sam, just the fact that you have horse guys just really makes it all worth it.
12:55We love that Sam has horse guys.
12:56He's got golf guys.
12:57He's got horse guys.
12:58He's got guy guys.
13:00I've been to Saratoga.
13:01We've got college baseball guys.
13:02We've got Texas in Oregon.
13:04We did a big one.
13:06I've tailed on Texas, and a couple of the top teams are out, UCLA and Georgia Tech.
13:13Is there anybody else I should know of that's, like, the path is being cleared for Texas or who else?
13:19North Carolina?
13:20I forget.
13:21What is it?
13:21Yeah, I mean, look, Texas, I think Texas could beat anybody.
13:26Like, that's how good I feel about it.
13:29But I've convinced myself to feel that way.
13:31Yep.
13:33I mean, Oregon's very good.
13:36But in terms of, like, you know, odds right now, North Carolina's number one.
13:40Texas is number two of all the teams left.
13:43So we have the second favor right now, and we bet it.
13:45What did we get?
13:4610 to one on Texas, I think?
13:47Plus 950 for me.
13:48Yep.
13:49Okay.
13:49I mean, if they win Oregon today, if they beat Oregon today, excuse me, it really opens up for them.
13:56Is that on somewhere, Bulldog?
13:57Or we're actually in golf.
13:58Maybe we should watch Texas, Oregon.
13:59When is that?
14:00We don't have to hear the metal bats because we'll have the volume down.
14:02Right.
14:03That is 8 o'clock p.m.
14:06Oh.
14:08Maybe.
14:08Well, that could still be possible.
14:11Sam, a delight as always.
14:13Anything you want to plug?
14:16I am moving to Chicago on Monday to work at Fox Chicago.
14:22Congratulations.
14:24Thank you, boys.
14:25What sorts of things will you be doing in this new endeavor, Sam?
14:28All sports.
14:29Chicago sports.
14:30Bulls, Bears, Blackhawks, Cubs, and Sox, and everything else in between.
14:34Are you going to get to shoot walking down the street outside Wrigley Field while you're introducing a piece that's
14:44already been videotaped?
14:45Because I really want to see that.
14:46I want to see you walking naturally with the microphone talking and explaining the Cubs' homestand.
14:53We could do whatever we want, I'm told.
14:56No, I said, be careful when you tell me that.
14:58I'm going to take that and run with it.
15:00I might have to do a field trip to Hammond, Indiana, where the Bears might be moving, which is crazy.
15:05But you know what?
15:05I start Monday.
15:06One of the first things I'm going to bring up to my boss is, send me to Bears Bills.
15:11Send me now.
15:12Because I think that game is in Buffalo, right?
15:14Yes, December.
15:16Yes.
15:16Oh, I'm coming.
15:18I'm going to be there.
15:18How far, you're a native, how far away is this Indiana town that they're talking about moving the Bears to?
15:2620 miles.
15:27Okay.
15:28So that's two hours by car?
15:32No.
15:33I mean, on a game day, it might take 40, like if you left the Sears Tower on game day,
15:39it might take you 50 minutes.
15:42Bears Bills is Saturday, December 19th at 8.20 Eastern p.m.
15:50Oh, so we could hang out all day Sunday, too.
15:52Saturday night, Sunday, the whole thing.
15:54That sounds like it could line up with a...
15:56I'm sleeping in Bulldog's attic.
15:56That sounds like it could line up with...
15:58I'm telling you, it could line up with another holiday party, Sam, is what it really sounds like to me.
16:01Sounds like we should book that right now.
16:03Very good.
16:04I love this.
16:05Sam, thanks.
16:06Congrats to you.
16:07And, you know, you're moving.
16:09Good luck with the move.
16:10Busy time, yeah.
16:11Good luck.
16:12Yeah, thanks, boys.
16:13Good luck on your eight-leg parlays.
16:15Yes.
16:16Especially me.
16:17I'm dead in the water.
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