00:00Right now, I think they're trying to be more deliberately cautious about any move.
00:07Napakahalaga kasi, Sir Ivan, itong Senate leadership, primarily because the number one dito nga sa impeachment,
00:15kung nasa iyo yung literato, you have somehow a leverage.
00:20Ang nakikita kasi natin sa impeachment is that kapag gumulong na yung mismong proseso,
00:26It really casts a doubt on the part of the people, especially lalong-lalong na dun sa mga supporters ng
00:34ating italawang Pangulo.
00:40Pilipinas, gising na. Nakatutok na naman ang bayan sa mga latest na nangyayari sa Senado.
00:46Kahapon po, inilabas na ang CCTV na pag-alis si Senador Bato sa Senado.
00:52Samantala, ang writ of samansamaan para kay Vice President Sara Duterte, naisilbina.
00:59Yan ang ating pag-uusapan, lilinawin at hihimayin.
01:03On record, sa unang hirin.
01:07At kay umaga, mga kapanayang po natin, Professor Froylan Kalilong, political analyst mula sa UST, Department of Political Science.
01:14Professor, good morning. Thank you for joining us again.
01:18Yes, yes. Good morning, Sir Van, at good morning din po sa lahat ng ating mga true survivor.
01:23Thank you. Thank you for having me again.
01:24Professor, we are on record now.
01:26Dalawang malalaking issue po involving the Senate.
01:29Una yung sitwasyon kay Senador Bato de la Rosa at ikalawa naman yung impeachment.
01:33Unahin natin yung kay Senador Bato.
01:35All eyes are on the Senate, lalo na po ngayong walang TRO preventing the ICC warrant
01:39at ang paglabas ng clear evidence showing he was aided by Senador Padilla sa kanyang paglabas sa Senado.
01:45Ano ba mga senaryo na nakikita ninyo maaaring magbunga from this situation with Senador Bato?
01:51Well, basically, unahin natin yung tinatawag natin na pag-alis niya dito sa Senate premises
01:59and definitely, yung hindi niya pag-participate doon sa out-taking,
02:04which means na, legally speaking, hindi din siya po pwedeng makaboto, no?
02:10Dahil nga sa umiiral na rules on impeachment,
02:14particularly yung rule number 14, section 41, annex B, no?
02:20ng rules na hindi po pwede pahintulutan yung teleconferencing
02:25o yung pag-boto via Zoom, no?
02:27So, definitely, medyo may efekto to, no?
02:31Kung titignan natin dahil nga mababawasan sila ng isa, no?
02:35Although, kung titignan po natin,
02:38ang bilang pa rin naman,
02:40ang magic number pa rin naman ay 16, no?
02:42Dahil nga kung ira-round off natin,
02:44yung two-thirds ng 23 senators that will give us 15.33
02:49and then we round it off to 16.
02:51So, labing-anin pa rin.
02:52Pero, ang mas malaking implication siguro rito, no?
02:56Kung nga idadrag nila itong pangalan ni Sen. Robin Padilla,
03:00po pwedeng masampahan siya kasi ng kaso, no?
03:03ng obstruction of justice
03:05at po pwede rin siya sampahan ng kaso sa Senate Ethics Committee, no?
03:09Na po pwedeng i-amplify nila ito, no?
03:12Pwedeng pumaba yung threshold, no?
03:15So, from 23, right now, we'll have only 22, no?
03:20At yun, bababa rin yung bilang, no?
03:24From 16 to 15, no?
03:26So, malaking implication ito sa natahakin itong impeachment trial.
03:30Interesting po.
03:31You raise interesting points.
03:33But more on that later.
03:34Dito muna tayo sa pagiging divided ng Senado
03:38and the new majority stands on precarious footing.
03:41Parang any moment, pwede mabago, eh.
03:43May usapan ng gapangan, may takotan daw,
03:45may pag-exert ng pressure.
03:48Pakipaliwanag nga, Professor,
03:49itong struggle to regain the Senate leadership.
03:52What is at stake?
03:52One time.
03:54Napakahalika kasi, no, Sir Ivan,
03:56itong Senate leadership,
03:57primarily because the number one,
04:00dito nga sa impeachment, no?
04:02Kung nasa iyo yung literato, no?
04:04You have somehow a leverage as to how you're going to conduct the proceedings,
04:10yung pagpapahintulot, halimbawa,
04:13doon sa mga motions,
04:14kung pwede niya itong gawin,
04:16maaari rin naman talagang magkaroon ng final say
04:20itong ating Senate President.
04:23And of course,
04:24yung centrifugal mechanisms,
04:27meaning to say,
04:27pwede talaga mag-gravitate towards the center,
04:31yung mga Senator Judges natin,
04:32kung saan na doon yung Senate President.
04:35At the same time,
04:36mahalaga na maintindihan din natin,
04:38na kung magkakaroon talaga ng,
04:40at ngayon nga,
04:41nagkaroon na tayo ng change of Senate leadership,
04:44yung mga critical committee chairmanships,
04:47eh, mababago din, no?
04:48And yun na nga,
04:49nangyari na nga,
04:50sa pagkakatalaga kay Senator Pia Cayetano kahapon,
04:53as the new Senate Duribon Committee chairwoman or chairperson,
04:58and this will have very strong implications, no?
05:01Hindi lamang dito sa impeachment,
05:03kundi doon din sa mga kaso,
05:05halimbawa ng flood control scandal,
05:07na maaaring buksan ngayon
05:09with greater scrutiny ni Senator Pia Cayetano.
05:14Professor, sa gitnaan itong mga nangyayari sa Senado,
05:16syempre, involved pa rin yung co-equal branches.
05:19Nakatutokan lahat yung Supreme Court,
05:21kahapon, binasura yung TRO petition,
05:23pero hindi pa nadedesisyonan yung main constitutional issues
05:26being raised by Senator Bato.
05:29Tinututokan din yung magiging aksyon ng executive,
05:33since walang TRO against the warrant,
05:35i-implement ba ito o dapat mag-i-serve?
05:38Interest yung interplay na,
05:40abanggit nyo rin kanina,
05:41si Senador Robin Padilla,
05:44titignan natin, baka kasuhan din nila
05:46ng obstruction of justice.
05:49Yes, technically speaking,
05:51medyo nasa precarious situation
05:54kasi rito yung ating Supreme Court,
05:57especially with this decision.
06:00And I think right now,
06:02they're really weighing very well
06:03yung consequences
06:05at yung mga legal measures
06:09para masiguro na magiging balance at tama
06:12yung kanilang magiging final decision
06:14dito sa kaso ni Sen. Bato de la Rosa
06:17because this does not only focus on the impeachment per se,
06:23but it's also a question of national sovereignty among others
06:28dahil nga this is a question about
06:31whether the ICC really has
06:33a hold over us and over our courts.
06:38So, I think they really need to deliver it on this very well
06:43and that they really need to show
06:45a greater legal scrutiny
06:48para talaga maimay ng maigi
06:50so that they will not be coming up with a wrong decision
06:53kasi may implication din ito
06:55kung ano magiging decision nila rito
06:56doon sa nangyaring pag-aresto
06:59kay dating Pangulong Rodrigo Rowa Duterte.
07:02So, kumbaga po pwede natin kasi itahi ito
07:05or ikabit ito ron.
07:07So, I think they're really treading
07:09on very, very serious lines at the moment.
07:12Ang executive, Professor Malacanang,
07:16ano kaya ang tinitimbang nila dito sa usaping ito?
07:20May mga observers kasi ang sinasabi nila
07:22bakit nung sa arrest warrant
07:25di dating Pangulong Duterte
07:26parang napaka-desisive
07:27nang naging galaw ng executive
07:30but this time, parang hindi sila gano'n
07:34kadisidido, kadetermined
07:35na iserve itong warat.
07:37Well, maaaring two things, no, Sir Ivan.
07:41Unang-una, I think nandun naman yung effort
07:45for them to actually serve the warrant.
07:47It's just that, mas naging ano kasi ngayon,
07:49mas naging decisive din yung countermeasure
07:53lalong-lalo na na mag-supporter
07:55si Senator Bato de la Rosa.
07:57You remember, they camp out immediately
07:59dito sa Senate.
08:00So, may ano eh, mayroong kaagad traction,
08:03may vigilance kaagad
08:05dito sa mga taga-supporta
08:06nung kabilang bloke.
08:08Hindi kagaya nung panahon
08:10ni President Rodrigo Duterte
08:13na sobrang bilis
08:14ng mga pangyayari.
08:16Morning, he was there
08:18and then evening,
08:18he was already up in the air.
08:21So, things like that.
08:22Another thing siguro
08:24na kailangan natin tignan dito, Ivan,
08:27is nagkaroon na ng
08:30medyo hindi rin magandang
08:31implication or impression
08:34sa parte ng executive
08:37na kung halimbawa
08:39gusto nilang pahinain
08:40yung Duterte block
08:42sa pagpapa-aresto nga
08:44kay President Duterte,
08:46parang kaliwas yun sa nangyari.
08:47Parang iniisip ng marami
08:50na mas lalo silang lumabas
08:51at nakita natin yun
08:52doon sa resulta ng 2025 election.
08:54So, right now,
08:55I think they're trying to be
08:57more deliberately
09:01cautious about any move.
09:03And, of course,
09:04sinasaalang-alang nila dito pa rin
09:05yung rule of law,
09:07which I think is not right
09:08for any government.
09:10Another interesting point you raise.
09:11Pero, again, more on that later.
09:13Dito muna tayo sa usapin
09:14ng Senate leadership, Professor.
09:16Malaki kasi
09:17magiging epekto nito
09:17sa impeachment.
09:19May oath of political neutrality
09:21yung Senator Judges,
09:22pero hindi rin naman natin
09:23mayaalis na malinaw
09:24ang leaning
09:25ng mga nasa mayorya at minorya.
09:27With how this is shaping up,
09:29anong ba ang nakikita
09:30ninyong possible scenario
09:31sa impeachment trial?
09:34Well,
09:35yun nga po,
09:36alam naman natin
09:37that the impeachment
09:39actually is,
09:41though it's a
09:41constitutional process
09:43and it is really
09:44a constitutionally mandated
09:45duty
09:46imposed on the Senate,
09:49hindi natin mayaalis
09:50kasi that
09:50at the end of the day,
09:52it really boils down
09:53to a political numbers game.
09:54It's really more about
09:55coalition building
09:56and alliances formation.
09:58at yun nga
09:59yung maaaring
10:00nakita natin
10:01this early,
10:02this early,
10:03kung kaya
10:03nagkaroon na kaagad
10:04ng pagbabago
10:05doon sa
10:06Senate leadership,
10:08gayon din naman,
10:09nagbago na rin
10:10yung
10:11majority
10:12at yung minority
10:13coalitions.
10:14And again,
10:15this sends
10:15a very strong signal
10:16kasi nangyari ito
10:18days before
10:19the formal
10:20beginning
10:20of the impeachment
10:22procedures
10:23or the impeachment
10:24proceedings.
10:25Ang sa akin,
10:27siguro,
10:28maaari rin naman
10:30na at the course
10:31of the impeachment
10:32dahil sa halimbawa
10:34sa bigat
10:34at sa linaw
10:36halimbawa
10:36ng mga testimonya
10:37tsaka ng mga
10:38magiging pahayag
10:39at ng mga dokumento
10:40na magbibigay diin
10:41doon sa mga paratang,
10:43maaari rin naman
10:44magbaroon ng pagbabago
10:45itong ating mga
10:47Senator Judges
10:48kasi titignan din natin
10:50dito
10:50what will be the
10:51public impression
10:52on them.
10:53Kasi if the
10:54evidences is
10:55insurmountable
10:55and if they are
10:57too overwhelming
10:58I think
10:58these people,
11:00these senators
11:00will also run
11:01the risk of losing
11:02their political capital
11:03in the long run
11:04and they wouldn't
11:05want to do that as well.
11:06So titignan natin dito
11:07alam bang
11:08mas magigat
11:08yung kanilang
11:10alliances
11:10doon sa kanilang
11:12koalisyon
11:12o yung kanilang
11:15constitutional mandate
11:16na tignan talaga
11:17yung validity
11:18at saka veracity
11:19nitong ating mga
11:20dokumento
11:21at saka mga
11:21ebidensya.
11:22Ito nga prof,
11:22yung mga lulutan
11:23niya sa impeachment
11:24deklarado na kasi
11:25intentions ni
11:26DP Sara
11:26sa 2028
11:27natatakbo siya
11:28sa pagkapangulo.
11:29Ano kaya
11:30magiging impact
11:31itong impeachment
11:31trial on her
11:32presidential ambitions?
11:34On one hand,
11:35inaasahan na maraming
11:36makakasira ito sa kanya
11:37but the opposite
11:38can also happen
11:39given that the
11:40Filipinos tend
11:40to favor the
11:41underdog.
11:43Right, right.
11:44That's true.
11:45I totally agree
11:46with that.
11:47Pero, you know,
11:49the reason I believe
11:50why Congress
11:52and especially
11:53the allies
11:54of the executive
11:57really push
11:58for it
11:58dito sa impeachment
11:59na ito
12:00na talagang
12:00very, very decisive
12:01tsaka sobrang
12:02masigasig sila
12:03na ipush ito
12:04is not really
12:05for them
12:05to actually
12:06gain the verdict
12:07of conviction.
12:09Para sa kanila
12:10siguro nakikita
12:11na na medyo
12:11long shot yun.
12:12To think na
12:13ang kailangan nila
12:14labing-anin,
12:15medyo mahirap
12:15talaga yun.
12:16Pero,
12:17ang nakikita
12:18kasi natin
12:18sa impeachment
12:19is that
12:20kapag gumulong
12:21na yung mismong
12:22proseso
12:23at naglatag
12:23na ng mga
12:24thousands of pages
12:25of documents
12:26indicating
12:28wrongdoings,
12:29misgivings,
12:30mga corruption
12:32allegations,
12:33bribery and the like,
12:34it really
12:35cast a doubt
12:37on the part
12:38of the people
12:39especially
12:40lalong-lalong
12:41na dun sa mga
12:42supporters
12:42ng ating
12:43kalawang Pangulo
12:44na maaring
12:44hindi man
12:45talaga
12:46magkaroon
12:47ng conviction
12:47dahil nga
12:48it's a political
12:50recourse
12:51pero yung
12:52impresyon
12:52na mayroon
12:53pala talaga
12:54siyang ginawa
12:54eh,
12:55mayroon
12:55mga ganito
12:56pala siyang
12:56mga,
12:57it really
12:58gives
12:59the impression
13:00and you know
13:01public perception
13:01sometimes is more
13:02important than
13:03reality
13:03so if the goal
13:04really is to
13:05weaken her
13:06if the goal
13:07is to weaken her
13:07leading to the
13:082028 elections
13:09whether she's
13:10convicted
13:11or acquitted
13:12I think
13:12the prosecution
13:13and the house
13:14was already
13:16able to
13:16accomplish that
13:17now it will
13:18be contingent
13:19right now
13:19kung gaano
13:20ba talaga
13:21katibay
13:21at karesolute
13:22yung mga
13:23supporters
13:23ni VP
13:24Sara
13:24are they
13:25hardline
13:26supporters
13:26are they
13:27fence
13:28sitters
13:28this time
13:29makikita
13:30natin
13:30kung sino
13:31talaga
13:31yung mga
13:32may matibay
13:33na conviction
13:33na
13:34despite and
13:35in spite of
13:35all these
13:36things
13:36hindi
13:36mababago
13:37yung kanilang
13:37pagtingin
13:38kay VP
13:39Sara
13:39iboboto pa rin
13:40nala ito
13:41sa 2028 elections
13:42that remains
13:42to be seen
13:43sir
13:43van
13:43great analysis
13:45professor
13:46frelal
13:46kalilong sir
13:46thank you
13:47very much
13:47sa input
13:48sinyo
13:49ngayong umaga
13:50anytime
13:51anytime
13:51mabuhi po
13:52kayo
13:52salamat po
13:53ang mga
13:53issue
13:54yung pinag-uusapan
13:55nilinawin
13:55at hihimayin
13:56natin
13:56on record
13:58sa unang hirin
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