00:00And every spring, we hear terms that get thrown around, like, you know, whenever the pick is made, and then
00:07they jump over to the NFL Network desk, and then you start hearing future Pro Bowler, bust potential, ceiling, floor,
00:16like they're throwing out all these just different descriptors that basically are trying to communicate a scale, or a spectrum
00:22of talent that they're on.
00:23And that this talent could get you way up here, or it could get you way down here. And currently,
00:30he's right here, and he's expected to end up here on it. And that's kind of the way that they
00:34talk about every single player. And so with every prospect on that talent spectrum, and some of those spectrums being
00:41wider than others, then I want to take a look at what would we term that scale for each one
00:48of Dallas's draft picks, and how realistic we think it is.
00:51So we'll start off, and we'll just kind of go down the list. First one is Caleb Downs. I'm curious,
00:55before I get into it, what's your expectation for Caleb Downs? Not just year one, just his career. What do
01:00you think he's going to be?
01:02I think he's going to be a Pro Bowl and All-Pro safety.
01:07I think that's...
01:08Who is the face of the defense.
01:09I think that's ultimately Dallas's expectation. So I've got Hall of Fame potential. That is the ceiling for him.
01:17League average, I think, is the floor. He's just kind of an...
01:20Like, that would be the worst-case scenario. Maybe his size doesn't pan out the way you want it to.
01:24Maybe some of the difficulties of the NFL, you're like, oh, that is a jump.
01:27And those margins don't matter as much where everybody here studies.
01:31Then he would be the very floor, I think, would be an average player.
01:34And listening to Dane Brugler's draft show, nerding out, going back to watch another...
01:40I'm just a sucker for the build-up.
01:41I wanted to see how people would react to, oh my god, Giants at 10.
01:45What are they going to do? Caleb Downs could go to the Cowboys.
01:48I think it was Love and Downs as being the two players with the highest floor in this draft for
01:58these guys.
01:58I'd agree with that.
02:00Like, you just know he's going to be a good player.
02:02No, he does not have the workout measurables of some of the other safeties, like Eamon Worry.
02:10He doesn't have the size of Hamilton. He's just a damn good football player.
02:14Malik Hooker is a very...
02:15He's just a decent safety, right?
02:18That was kind of thought to be his floor when he was coming out.
02:20Like, when he was coming out, people thought initially with Malik Hooker, there was talk of, like,
02:23that guy could be a multiple-time lead the NFL in interceptions player.
02:27Like, that was the kind of ball skills that he was thought to have.
02:30And it's not quite worked out for that, but he ended up being a decent player because he had a
02:33floor like that.
02:34Caleb Downs, league average floor.
02:36The expectation for him, though, for the Cowboys is that's going to be a Pro Bowl player.
02:38That's the expectation placed on his career right now.
02:41So, Malachi Lawrence, this one's interesting.
02:44His potential is a multiple-time Pro Bowler.
02:47That is, like, what he can reach up to.
02:50His floor is his fifth-year option has declined.
02:53And he just never really pans out here.
02:56And I think the expectation, the reasonable expectation from them is he is a consistent pressure player.
03:01Like, that's...
03:02Right now, it's like, when we pick you, what do we expect you?
03:04We expect you to get after the quarterback and do it pretty well by league standards.
03:08So, I think, if you were to say, we think that the expectation for what he should be able to
03:14do,
03:14and we think he should be able to do more, but the expectation for what he should be able to
03:17do is,
03:18like, that should be a guy that, when he's in the peak of his career, should be 8 to 10
03:20sacks.
03:21Like, a year.
03:21That should be what he's able to do.
03:23So, he's explosive.
03:24He's multiple in the means of attack that he has.
03:28The question would become, like, how would the floor factor into that is,
03:32when NFL tackles are able to counter that and neutralize some of his stuff that college tackles weren't able to
03:38do as easily,
03:39how does he respond?
03:40How does he continue to learn and grow?
03:42Because, as it stands now, another question would be, he doesn't play with a lot of power.
03:46His speed to power is not great.
03:47And so, because of that, I think you would be looking at a guy who can't just,
03:51all right, when they've got every other answer, can I just bowl a guy over?
03:54He can't do that right now.
03:55So, that would be kind of the area where he might hit his floor.
03:59But the expectation, with some of the talent that he has as just an explosive player
04:03and some of the moves that he has, being able to attack inside and outside,
04:06that, at that point, would be that he could be a multiple-time Pro Bowler.
04:09Yeah.
04:09Look, it's hard for me to...
04:12I've got to include past failures in these evaluations.
04:15We do this every year.
04:17All right?
04:18The flowers are fresh.
04:19They smell the best.
04:20But we have Donovan Ezraku and Taco Charlton and other first-round edges.
04:28And say what you want about Randy Gregory and Marshawn Nealon.
04:32God rest his soul.
04:33I mean, these weren't really good players.
04:37Randy was the best of them.
04:38So far, Ezraku, not.
04:40Not living up to the potential and the hype.
04:43Sure.
04:44And that's all this is talking about here.
04:45It's like, what is he capable of?
04:47Or what does his skill set say he's capable of?
04:49Everyone's talking about the explosion.
04:51Does not mean he's likely to reach that multiple.
04:53Yeah.
04:53He probably is not.
04:54Everyone's talking about the explosion of Lawrence.
04:57Like, Malachi.
04:58Third down, he knows just to run right at the passer.
05:02And that's where the athleticism jumps out.
05:05All right.
05:05We're taking a look at the potential, the talent spectrum here that the Cowboys draft picks have.
05:09Jay Sean Barham, the linebacker to start for the Cowboys, who has some edge versatility, the third-round pick out
05:16of Michigan.
05:16So, he is Pro Bowl potential at linebacker.
05:19Not, like, perennial.
05:20But, like, that's a guy who could make a Pro Bowl or two at linebacker as the ceiling.
05:24Again, not the expectation.
05:25That's just what his talent says he has the ability to do.
05:28His floor, I think, is he's a tweener backup.
05:31So, like, he's just one of these guys that's all, like, you know, think about, like, how consistently Sam Williams
05:36is out there.
05:37That's probably his floor, where he's kind of doing a little bit of everything.
05:40His versatility allows him.
05:41Sam Williams is another one who was a miss.
05:43Yeah.
05:43And his versatility allows him to do a little bit of some other stuff that would probably keep him on
05:47a roster.
05:47So, that would probably be his floor.
05:48He's just a backup who's playing on both sides.
05:50The realistic expectation for him, I think, is versatile, starting-caliber linebacker.
05:55That's what they think.
05:56Hey, that's what we think you need to be, is that we think, based on your skills and what we
06:00can get out of you, this is what you need to be.
06:02You could surprise us in either direction, but you should be starting-caliber linebacker.
06:06Dane Brugler talked about Jay Sean Barham and said, depending on how good you are, is how we will call
06:13you either versatile or tweener, right?
06:15So, like, versatile is the guy who's capable of it.
06:17Tweener is the guy who's like, hey, he doesn't really fit either.
06:18And he said, Barham maybe trends a little bit more towards tweener's side, but he is a really impressive athlete
06:25and somebody who has all the tools to be a really good linebacker.
06:28Next on this list, Drew Shelton, who you read the quote earlier from Jeremy Fowler that Cowboys really like him.
06:34I think the expectation or the potential for him is just good starting left tackle.
06:39That's the height for what he's capable of.
06:41He's not like an all-pro capability guy, but he's got a chance to be a starting left tackle for
06:46a number of years.
06:46That's like his hype.
06:49His floor would be he's cut before year three in camp.
06:53Trevor Sykema, who we had on at the Combine two years ago.
06:56PFF recap.
06:57I don't think he's a fan of Shelton.
07:00Shelton, if he's a he could be his floor would be year three.
07:03He's like, think Matt will let's go Josh ball like those.
07:05That's realistically what it could be traits that never develop.
07:08The realistic expectation for him right now from this organization, I think, is you are a left side leaning swing
07:14tackle.
07:15That's what we think you you need to be.
07:17You need to like really be a swing tackle for us.
07:19That probably plays a little bit more left, but we think maybe you can become a starter.
07:23So we're going to try to get you there.
07:24Devin Moore.
07:25This is the corner from Florida.
07:29His potential is a true ball hawking starting cornerback like he can be.
07:34That's what he can reach.
07:34He can be a guy who gets you five, six picks in a season and can be a really strong
07:39starting cornerback in the NFL.
07:40His floor is injury riddled and completely inactive.
07:44And you never see him on the field.
07:45That is a part of his spectrum that he could tap into.
07:48And the realistic expectation for him right now from the Cowboys is you are going to be a rotational contributor
07:54and spot starter as a fourth round corner.
07:56That's what we think you are capable of doing.
07:57We want you to become that.
07:59And he's somebody who, like I said, the traits are really impressive there.
08:02There's no telling with his injury history what he's going to become because it's a lengthy one.
08:07All right.
08:08Ceilings and floors here for the Dallas Cowboys draft picks.
08:10Next up, LT Overton, the final fourth round pick.
08:13This is one of the more interesting spreads, I think, that exists.
08:17Broadus didn't seem too thrilled with this.
08:19Doesn't like him.
08:20Because he's like, he doesn't rush the passer.
08:22Well, and he's NFL size.
08:23He's not five, six.
08:24Yeah.
08:25He is an elite.
08:26His potential is elite run defender with power rush capability.
08:31Like a guy who can get you some sacks every now and then, but really like strong run defender and
08:35average in the pass rush.
08:37His floor is frustrating tools prospect that never gets on the field.
08:42That would be the absolute floor where it's just like he's all these tools and no instincts and he's never
08:45putting it together.
08:46And the expectation of him right now is he's a jack of all trades rotational defensive lineman.
08:51He can play inside on four-man looks, on three-man looks.
08:53He's going to play the edge setter.
08:55He's in the rotation consistently.
08:57Maybe he's not ever a starter, but he's in there getting 50% of the snaps every week, doing various
09:02things for you.
09:03And he's doing it at a level that you say, hey, we can live with that.
09:06That's probably the expectation.
09:07And then final one here, Anthony Smith, the receiver from East Carolina.
09:13The potential is deep ball field stretching number three.
09:18Like that's if he hits whatever he can be, he can be in a three-man receiver rotation at his
09:22very peak.
09:22And he can be one of these guys who's like, oh, he averaged 18 yards a catch that year.
09:26His floor would be he's cut in September of this year.
09:29And just they look at him and go, yep, didn't work out.
09:32And you can be on your way.
09:33The reality and the expectation, I think, is they want him to be back-end receiver room contributor, number four
09:39or five, somewhere around there, with the occasional pop.
09:42Like, hey, look, Anthony Smith, we get to the end of the year and maybe he finished with 18 catches.
09:47But he had two of them that were 60 yards and touched it like Cedric Wilson used to do before
09:50he left here.
09:52And that's kind of the expectation for him right now.
09:54Like, hey, you could be this.
09:55Let's see if you can compete to be number four or five consistently.
09:57The ceiling is the roof here.
09:59There we go.
10:00And below the belt.
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