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The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a historic victory in the 2026 West Bengal assembly elections, winning 206 seats and ending the fifteen-year rule of the Trinamool Congress.
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00:00Good evening, you're watching To The Point. I'm Preeti Chaudhuri.
00:03Over the course of the next 45 minutes, we're going to decode the perfect saffron storm of the Bharatiya Janata
00:11Party in Bengal.
00:12But before we get there, allow me to take you through the headlines.
00:18Mamata Banerjee's big vote chori charge against BJP says will not tender resignation alleges that BJP stole 100 plus votes
00:26in Bengal.
00:32Kaun Banega, BJP's first Bengal chief minister.
00:35Five names in the race.
00:37Two-time giant Kila Suvendu frontrunner, Dilip Ghosh state BJP chief, Shamik Bhattacharya also in contention, who Minister Shah appointed
00:47as observer.
00:52Nari Akrosh against Mamata Banerjee costs her the election.
00:55BJP women candidates, Sandesh Khali survivor, Rekha Patra wins polls.
01:01Arjikar victim's mother, Ratna Devnath, wins from Panihati.
01:08After Vijay's blockbuster victory, all eyes on government formation.
01:12Sources say Vijay Ayn for Congress left VCK as allies.
01:16Vijay plans for swearing in on 7th May.
01:18But Raj Bhavan says no official communication by TVK yet.
01:26Stalin submits resignation to TN governor.
01:29Stalin vows comeback after poll defeat.
01:31Says TVK won just 17.4 lakh votes.
01:35Says TVK just got three and a half more votes than DMK.
01:50All right, the latest coming in after Mamata Banerjee says, I will not resign.
01:54I haven't lost this election.
01:56This was stolen from me.
01:57Suvendu Adhikari has hit back at Mamata Banerjee.
02:01Says everything is written in the constitution.
02:03Listen in.
02:30Suvendu Adhikari responding to what Mamata Banerjee had said,
02:32where she said she's not going to Raj Bhavan, tendering in her resignation.
02:36She doesn't believe that she lost the election.
02:38This was stolen from her by a virtue of 100 seats.
02:42Suvendu Adhikari, who's touted as a possible CM face for West Bengal for BJP,
02:47says it's all written in the constitution, which it really is,
02:50because the governor in this case doesn't need to really have a resignation from Mamata Banerjee.
02:56That's usually, you know, it's seen as a procedure,
03:00but the governor can dismiss Mamata Banerjee and her cabinet of ministers
03:04and then effect a smooth transition of power to the BJP.
03:08Meanwhile, let's for a moment focus on this massive saffron tsunami
03:12that has taken over the state of Bengal.
03:15What were the factors at play?
03:17What all completely worked for the BJP to orchestrate what I said, the perfect storm?
03:30History has been written in Bengal.
03:37For the first time ever, the Bharatiya Janata Party is set to form the government in the state.
03:47A political fortress has fallen, and this isn't just a win.
03:52It's a landslide.
03:53Yes, they are looting my county centre.
03:56From 77 seats last time to crossing 200 now.
04:02A surge that has stunned even seasoned observers.
04:08So what did the BJP get right this time?
04:14First, two.
04:16No personal attacks on Mamata Banerjee.
04:18Instead, a relentless focus on issues of corruption, women's safety and infiltration.
04:27Inside the party, the noise of infighting gave way to a more cohesive pitch.
04:34Veteran leaders who were once sidelined were brought back into the frame.
04:39The message?
04:40This was a collective fight.
04:45At the top, an intense high-voltage campaign.
04:49Narendra Modi on the ground repeatedly with rallies, roadshows, symbolic outreach.
04:56From local food to local idiom.
04:59A visible attempt to blend into Bengal and counter the long-standing outsider charge.
05:12On the ground, the organisation looked tighter.
05:17Booth networks expanded.
05:19Workers trained, deployed, monitored.
05:22In rural belts, the focus was clear.
05:26Reduce fear.
05:27Maximise turnout.
05:30There was also a noticeable shift in who was turning up.
05:34Women voters.
05:36Local.
05:37Everyday concerns.
05:39Finding more space in the campaign conversation.
05:45Adding new layers to an already shifting base.
05:48Alongside this, identity and security narratives around borders, migration, cultural assertion continue to shape voting choices in several pockets.
06:04adminers.
06:05D.M.C.
06:06K.
06:06Maha.
06:07Jungle.
06:08Rajne.
06:09A.
06:11D.M.C.
06:11D.M.C.
06:11K.
06:14Maha.
06:16Maha.
06:18T.
06:18Maha.
06:18T.
06:20Maha.
06:21T.
06:47The result, a campaign that was loud,
06:50local and layered and a verdict that has redrawn bengal's political map bengal has a pattern
06:59of long spells of power mom the banerji entered the left's 34-year rule in 2011 now the bgp has
07:07ended momata's 15-year run will this be a similar long innings for the bgp in bengal bureau report
07:17india jiji all right joining me is uh mr delip ghosh senior bjp leader who's uh one from his
07:27constituency of khadagpur sadar joining us from the bjp headquarter in kolkata mr ghosh thank you
07:33for taking the time out and joining us sir delip ji sabse pehle jo mamata banerji keh rahi hai ki
07:39yeh chunnav unhoney hara nahi hai unhoney hara ya gaya hai aur woh nahi maamati ke chunnav
07:46hari hai saw seat ke upar aapne chori ki hai aur woh aapna istifah nahi dhe ngi
07:51ki hai unki bestupun ki aadat realt├а ra ╤А╨░╨╖╨▓╨╕╤ВareG ─Сi noll maha veh pilotate
08:01mouse╨╡╨╖ abhi vah Control karate Ti saob k├╢ri mu hao bhati there ha surroundings ┬╜
08:14foreign
08:28foreign
08:29foreign
08:30the people who are finished
08:31have a lot of water
08:34in last time
08:34this is the same thing
08:38Dilip Ji
08:38what TMC said
08:40what today Mamtah Banerjee has said
08:42that post-pole violence
08:44is very important
08:45and that TMC's work
08:48is going to kill
08:48and kill
08:49and kill
08:50TMC's work
08:51has already been released
08:51and he said
08:53that a lot of work
08:54has also been done
08:54and Mamtah Banerjee
08:56himself said
08:56that he killed
08:58and killed
08:58He was in his face.
09:28So, if the office is a good thing, then it's a good thing.
09:32So, there's nothing to do with this.
09:34It's a good thing.
09:35So, people have changed the government.
09:37So, it's not going to change the government.
09:37It's not going to change the government.
10:26It's not going to change the government.
10:57It's not going to change the government.
10:58So, it's not going to change the government.
11:41It's not going to change the government.
11:45It's not going to change the government.
12:20It's not going to change the government.
12:31It's not going to change the government.
13:03It's not going to change the government.
13:40It's not going to change the government.
13:43It's not going to change the government.
13:58It's not going to change the government.
14:37It's not going to change the government.
15:10It's not going to change the government.
15:22It's not going to change the government.
15:42It's not going to change the government.
16:18It's not going to change the government.
16:25It's not going to change the government.
16:55It's not going to change the government.
17:07It's not going to change the government.
17:16It's not going to change the government.
17:20It's not going to change the government.
17:42they may be from, or regimes, over a period of time, acquire a certain amount of anti-incumbency.
17:48Ms. Mukherjee, you know, I'm going to come to the other factors, but allow me to stop you there,
17:52where you speak of anti-incumbency, because, you know, we've also sat as a team on India today
17:57and crunched our data, and anti-incumbency comes in as the biggest factor, which swept across West
18:03Bengal. And one can only turn to our election intelligence dashboard to explain why anti-incumbency
18:10has been one of the reasons, the biggest reasons, for the count of rout that we have seen for the
18:15TMC.
18:16Look at the five regions there, and I'm going to quickly take you to Jalpaigudi.
18:1927 seats, viewers, out of 27 seats, 26 were taken by the BJP, only 1-1 by the TMC.
18:26Let's climb down from Jalpaigudi and look at Malda. In Malda, you have 49 seats, 22-22,
18:34both to the BJP and the TMC. Congress took two, the left took one, others, which is Humayu Kabir,
18:39took two. So you can see right there, and this is a mostly Muslim-dominated area, we'll come to that
18:44later. This is Malda. Let's move from Malda to Bardawan. Bardawan, once again, 54 seats, 45 taken
18:51by the BJP, only 9 went to the TMC. From Bardawan, let's move right now to Medhanipur. Medhanipur,
18:59complete saffron sweep. This pretty much cryptid the devastation of the TMC. 56 seats, 54 went to
19:09the BJP. Only two were picked up by the TMC. From Medhanipur, let's move now to presidency.
19:16This was supposed to be the bastion of Mamata Banerjee, the seat of power, TMC's citadel.
19:22All cliches broke on yesterday. 107, because Falta is yet to go into polling, out of which
19:31the BJP swept 60, the TMC, 46. Let me quickly round it up in terms of what were the gains
19:39and losses in regions, and the story is scripted right on your television screens. In for TMC,
19:46in Bardawan, from the last time in 2021, it's lost 37 seats, Jalpaiguri, 4 seats, Malda,
19:5216 seats. Medhanipur, 31 seats. Presidency, 46 seats. These were the losses by the TMC. And
20:00now look how the BJP gained from the TMC's losses. Bardawan, plus 37. Bardawan, 37 plus from
20:0821. Jalpaiguri, plus 5 from 21. This is where the BJP had maximized. It even went in to pro-max
20:16Jalpaiguri at that level. Malda, plus 11. Once again, mostly Muslim dominated, yet the BJP maximized
20:23its gains from Malda. Medhanipur, 31. This is the area of Sowendu, Adhikari. Only two seats this time
20:29have gone to the TMC. 31 seats BJP gained in Medhanipur from 2021. Presidency, the fortress of
20:36the TMC, completely breached with a plus 46. 46 seats over than what the BJP had got the last time
20:44around. So the story, Ashutosh, is right here in terms of anti-incumbency, how it's crept
20:51all across, region to region, where West Bengal is concerned. Be it the north right up there
20:58and climbing all the way to the south. This was the story of the saffron wave. And it would
21:03not have been possible if there was an anti-incumbency to a level where every region spoke.
21:12See, Priti, whatever you are saying is, uh, uh, is, is basically analysis and believing that whatever
21:19Mamata Benerji has accused after the elections is not true. Within that context, yes, uh, if the BJP
21:28has got such a tremendous success in Bengal, that means there was a wave in favor of the, uh, in
21:35favor of
21:35Bharti Yanta party. And there was a strong anti-incumbency, uh, against the Mamata Benerji.
21:41That is true. But I think the bigger issue in my opinion is that, uh, BJP has, has, has done
21:49tremendous job in terms of consolidating Hindu votes. And in the last election in 2021, the 50%
21:57Hindus had voted for the BJP. In this election, I have not seen the data, but I assume that since
22:03the
22:03number has gone beyond 200, that means the Hindu voter must have, uh, gone beyond 60%.
22:09Fair point.
22:09If that is the, if that is the case, that means the BJP has succeeded, uh, in its mission.
22:15Ashutosh, will you...
22:15And, uh, it's giving...
22:16Ashutosh, will you...
22:17Hold on to that thought because you said you want to, you know, you don't have the data,
22:19but let's show you the data because our second point, which, you know, there were multiple
22:24layers to the BJP's win. The second point, of course, comes from the fact how there was solid
22:29Hindu consolidation. So this is what the map looked like. And just, you know, for the benefit
22:33of our viewers, these were the results in 2021. You can see the green sweep right there. And this
22:37is what it looks like in 2026. You can see the saffron sweep there. But when we speak of Hindu
22:42consolidation, solid Hindu consolidation, and I will take you now to all the seats where the minority
22:49population was under 20%. So you had the Hindu population which stood at about 80%. And for your own
22:57benefit, you can see how the Hindu vote consolidated. 153 seats where the minority population is under
23:0420% viewers. And 140 of those seats were swept by the Bharatiya Janata Party. Only 13 went to the
23:13TMC. And that's the story of the Hindu consolidation that you can see on your television screen. Less
23:27the total West Bengal seats, 140 go to the BJP. Only 13 are picked by the TMC. Rajat, I think
23:34this is
23:34exactly was one of, you know, like I said, multiple layers to this win, but nobody can miss the Hindu
23:41consolidation.
23:47Sorry. See, of course, I mean, there is a consolidation around the community, which was
23:53denied its fundamental rights of practicing their religion without fear in that state. So it is
24:00bound to happen. They have tolerated this dictatorial regime for the past one and a half decades. And they
24:09all expressed in complete resonance against the rule of Mamata Banerjee. So yes, you can say that,
24:16but it is not just polarization. It is consolidation of the Hindu vote and a complete
24:21disc consolidation or misconsolidation of the Muslim votes. Muslims thought that Mamata Banerjee
24:26for a fairly long time was effectively representing them, but not this time. So I don't think there was
24:31some kind of a religious polarization where two poles were created and the Hindus were consolidating
24:36on that pole. I don't think that was happening. But one thing was for sure, Hindus felt that they were
24:42unable to breathe in that state freely and practice what held dear to them. But the Muslims on the other
24:49side also felt that they had been taken for a right, taken for granted. So I believe all of these
24:56things were working simultaneously.
24:58All right. All of these things were working simultaneously. And you are right there, Rajat.
25:02We're going to try and unpeel each of those layers there. So we've spoken of the anti-incumbency.
25:06We've spoken of Hindu consolidation. Let's all talk about, there was so much said,
25:10Chikha Mukherjee, of the woman vote, and possibly that the Bengali woman will come and be the savior
25:18of Mamata Banerjee when it came down to the ballot. But did that really happen? Because if you actually
25:23look at the turnout, 92%, let's break it down in terms of gender, and the total turnout in 2026,
25:31the women voted 93%, that is a percentage over men. So clearly, women voted more. But did it
25:38translate to vote? Not quite, because it seems most of that has gone, the women vote to the BJP. Now,
25:47one can, you know, clearly say that it could be because of religious lines, anti-incumbency,
25:51but the women vote had shifted. And I'll give you an example. Maximum number of voter women turnout
25:57came in from the constituency of Jadavpur. And let's look at how Jadavpur fared this time around.
26:06And Jadavpur BJP recorded a massive win, Shikha Mukherjee, on the seat of Jadavpur, that saw a
26:12turnout of women, which was over 5% more than men on that particular seat.
26:19Yeah, okay. There are two issues here. One is that Jadavpur is essentially, most of Jadavpur
26:25constituency is essentially an urban seat. It's urban middle class, once upon a time, what were called
26:33refugee colonies, that kind of a seat, where the women's vote was deeply influenced by the
26:42RGCOR Medical College Hospital incident. It was deeply influenced by similar incidents of violence
26:52and sexual abuse during Mamuta Banerjee's times. And the section of women that is, let's be very clear,
27:04not 100% women have ever voted for Mamuta Banerjee. About 50% and 50% plus in the later
27:13years have
27:14voted for Mamuta Banerjee. So the increase in women voter turnout in Jadavpur is a reflection of
27:25the sentiments of women around issues like RGCOR, issues like the rape of a young student inside a college
27:36campus. It is a reflection of the abuse of power and the protection that the Mamuta Banerjee government
27:51gave to the RGCOR. You know, but it's happened, for example, in the seat of Behala Paschim, Behala
27:58Poorbi, and both of the seats. Also the same. Yeah, I understand. The same set. But, you know,
28:02what we did was we also got into micro data, which we don't have right now. We're going to get
28:06that in
28:07terms of if the women vote shifted, how much would the BJP have benefited. But that aside, allow me to
28:14go
28:14now to the other factor, which is the Muslim vote factor, and how possibly the Muslim vote has splintered.
28:20And I think there's a story within a story there. And Ashutosh and Rajat, I'll bring you back in,
28:25as well as Shikha Mukherjee. But once, if you just look at this, in terms of high voter, in terms
28:30of
28:31constituencies, where you have a high voter percentage of Muslim population over 40 percent, well, 62 seats,
28:38out of 62 seats, the TMC 139, the BJP just 18. This is where the Muslim population is over 40
28:45percent.
28:45Medium density of Muslim population 29, 20 to 39 percent, 78 seats out of that. The BJP actually
28:55won 49 and the TMC 28. The left and the Congress has also benefited. If you look, a lot of
29:02that vote,
29:02of the Muslim vote, seemingly splintered. The BJP has made inroads because some of it was split between
29:08the left Congress and the TMC. So especially in areas like Murshidabad, which had 22 seats. Last time
29:14the BJP could only win two. This time the BJP managed to win nine in all. And Murshidabad is a
29:22district that has a density of the minority vote upwards of 66 percent. And a lot of that vote has
29:29also gone directly to the Congress. The Congress has won two seats in Murshidabad. The left one seat.
29:35And Humayu Kabir won from both his seats of Reggie Nagar and Noada, both in Murshidabad. So Ashutosh,
29:41while you have a consolidation of the Hindu vote, the Muslim vote didn't quite stick by Mamata Banuji.
29:50Preeti, ideology has a habit of creating a delusional world. And just brainwashes people to believe in a
29:58particular kind of narrative. It's narrative like this, that in Bengal, where 72% in the
30:07Hindus are comprised of 72% of the population, they were not free to practice their religion.
30:12That is a kind of narrative which is being spread. A false consciousness is being created.
30:17But the most unfortunate part is that we are creating two societies in one, in a state,
30:24like a Hindu society and the Muslim society. If that is the case, then God can only save this country.
30:30That how much we are going to push and push and push Muslims. If it is openly said that 72
30:38%
30:38Hindus were not allowed to practice their religion, can you believe this?
30:43So, and the BJP openly says, they don't want a Muslim vote.
30:48Suvendu Adhikari, who should be penalized for campaigning in front of the polling station and
30:55saying, Hindu khatre me hai, Hindu hume vote de, Hindu bhai hume vote de.
31:00If the situation has come to this path, then what can you do and what can I do and what
31:03can the
31:04others do? And election commission is just watching, doing nothing. On a similar note,
31:10on a similar note, Bala Sahib Thakre was, his voting right was ceased for six years.
31:15But election commission is just watching. So, the lot has to be said and lot has to be done.
31:22That in which environment the election in Bengal has happened. And this is a very, very dangerous
31:28trend. If people realize, if the government realize it's good for us, otherwise we are doomed.
31:32Right. Okay, but you know, when this trend is concerned, I'll bring in Rajat as well. But after a
31:38quick break, where you've seen one aspect of the Hindu vote consolidating, but strangely,
31:43is it just anti-incumbency that have spoken in regions where one should have ideally seen
31:47counter-polarization, counter-consolidation of the Muslim vote in favor of Mamata Banerjee?
31:53That hasn't happened, because they've gone for the second option in most places.
32:02All right, the AIMIM that made forays into West Bengal this time around didn't quite register
32:08one percent also when it came down to vote share. But Asaduddin Ovesi has just spoken,
32:13blaming Mamata Banerjee for exploiting the Muslim in West Bengal. Listen in and we are back with our debate.
32:28This image of Mamata Banerjee outside of West Bengal, that she is very liberal and secular,
32:36that is completely wrong. She has exploited the Muslims as only as old banks. She has not treated
32:43them as citizens. There are huge corruption has happened and right under her administration.
32:52And SIR also the factor. But had the TMC treated Muslims as citizens, not as a mere old bank,
33:01there would have been much development.
33:03All right, Asaduddin Ovesi blaming Mamata Banerjee for exploiting the Muslims in West Bengal.
33:08Let's look at the data and we'll bring in Rajat and Shikha Mukherjee on that. Namely in terms of
33:13districts that have a high density of Muslim voters, Uttar Dinajpur right here, then you come down to
33:18Malda district and then you come down to Murshidabad and of course South Chobis Paragnaz right at the bottom.
33:23The clusters where you can see the TMC win are in these clusters as well. But the entire Muslim vote
33:30hasn't quite consolidated. If it had, the story would have been very, very different in terms of
33:35the numbers that Mamata Banerjee would have recorded. It would have been at least on the upwards of 70
33:39seats where Muslim vote truly matters. What has happened is that over six or nearly eight percent of
33:46the vote actually has been taken and picked up by the left and Congress and Humayu Kabir's party in
33:52these very districts, which has a high Muslim density. And in various seats, the vote has been
33:58split. And with that split, the BJP has been able to come in and pick up at least 18 seats
34:03in these
34:04areas. I want to cut across to Rajat. Rajat, there seems to be, whether it's anti-incumbency, but the
34:10sizable 27 to 30 percent Muslim population and voters this time did not choose Mamata Banerjee.
34:16They also decided to go with another option.
34:20You know, this is, if Mamata Banerjee were to look at one statistics, it should be this,
34:25that your vote bank, which you tried to cultivate without offering them anything for the past 15
34:32years, even they deserted. So she doesn't need proof whether the election was rigged or not rigged.
34:37This is the proof. This is proof enough for her to submit the resignation tonight itself. But she
34:43won't do that. Forget about that. Let me come to the Muslim question. Why were they so disgruntled?
34:48Out of the 15 years, you tell me what has materially changed in their lives. You go to Malda,
34:54Mursheedabad, they are absolutely the poorest cities, districts, you know, full of crime. The kind of
35:01issues that are there, the fundamental issues of law and order, security are not provided across
35:07communal lines. And this is enough for her to actually, you know, to understand what went wrong
35:14over and over again. Why was she not able to win the trust wherein Jahagir could come up and in
35:19spite
35:19of, you know, that alleged sting operation that was done. And in spite of that, he was able to win
35:25the votes of the Muslim. Himayu Kabir. Yeah, Himayu Kabir. Sorry, sorry, Himayu Kabir. Last point here is,
35:32you know, they tried to bring out the SIR issue as if the SIR issue was pointedly targeted at the
35:38Muslims.
35:39And she could not even try to polarize the Muslims on the SIR issue. Because everybody who was on the
35:45ground
35:45realized that the Hindu names were also cut and the Muslims name were cut in the direct proportion of the
35:50two
35:50populations. Let me bring in Shikha Mukherjee. You know, this fear, this fear was deliberately
35:55tried to, there was an attempt to seal it into their minds. Shikha Mukherjee, want to weigh in on
36:00this? What led to the fracture of the Muslim vote bank for Mamata Banuji?
36:05You know, it is, it is the kind of narrative that Asaduddin Ovesi,
36:10Umayu and Kabir, ISF, have been ISF for over five years now, Umayu and Kabir for the last three years,
36:22and Ovesi off and on for about five years now. They have been talking about how the Muslim votes,
36:30have Muslim voters consolidated as a vote bank have been shamelessly exploited by the Trinidad
36:39of Congress. This is something that the Congress as well as the CPM have also been saying. And this
36:47is what the BJP has also been saying. Therefore, there is, there is a perception. First and foremost,
36:54there is this absurd perception that the Muslim vote went lock, stock and barrel to Mamata Banuji.
37:02That's nonsense. In 2021, the CPM's vote was about four point something percent. The Congress vote was
37:11about three percent and the ISF vote was about one point four, one point five percent. All of these
37:19people polled both Hindu and Muslim votes. Let's be very clear about it. And the only difference this time
37:28is that when Umayu and Kabir, ISF, Ovesi, Congress, CPIM, and backed up by a very, very clever BJP campaign
37:42about how the Muslims were being exploited came into effect. And the Congress and the CPM, instead of
37:50losing seats, which of course they had none to lose, but when they started picking up seats, obviously
37:57the vote shares or the voters had a choice which they exercised and they exercised it in favour of
38:05five other candidates. Also let me, Ashutaj Aikman, please. Also let me explain that, you know,
38:14this talk of consolidation, of consolidation, of consolidation, the BJP, as all of us have
38:24pointed out, the BJP gets the Hindu vote. The BJP does not make attempts to get the Muslim vote.
38:32The interesting thing is, and I was looking at some of the figures, is that when the Muslim vote
38:40is distributed amongst three or four other parties where you have this triangular and quadrangular
38:46contests, then it is very strange that in Muslim majority, where the Muslims have a significant
38:57share of the votes, 20 to 25 percent, even there, the BJP has made inroads.
39:04Because the vote has gotten split.
39:05Yeah, when we are talking about Hindu consolidation, no, I need to make a point.
39:08Right, right.
39:08Hindu consolidation, the interesting thing is that the BJP, which got 45 percent of the votes,
39:16were a vote share this thing, right? So it's 45 percent, 70 percent.
39:20Right, okay, let me, so that's 70 percent of the Muslim vote. So the BJP's maximized that.
39:24I want to go back now to the last two factors that we're looking at, because all of it, like
39:28I said,
39:29made a perfect storm. Let's also look at, a lot of people were talking about the urban unrest and the
39:34angst in the urban belt, especially, you know, at the back of women's security, lack of jobs,
39:39lack of development. Let's just quickly do that split as well. Where the urban seats were concerned,
39:44right on your television screen, 68 urban seats. The split clearly spoke for BJP, 48 won by the BJP,
39:5221 by the TMC. Let's look at the semi-urban area. Well, the semi-urban area, 47 seats, 36 went
39:59to
39:59the BJP, and 11 to the TMC. Let's look at the complete rural belt. And in the rural belt, well,
40:06178 seats, 123 to the BJP, and the TMC just 49. In that context, Ashutosh, and I'm taking last,
40:15you know, there's also, of course, another factor, and let's quickly play that factor out as well,
40:18which is, of course, the campaign by the Prime Minister and Amit Shah this time, 20 rallies by
40:23the Prime Minister. Also, the kind of push that was there by Amit Shah, let's play that factor as
40:29well, also added to the campaign. But I want to cut across to Ashutosh on, Ashutosh so much was made
40:37about the urban, you know, the BJP might do well in the urban belt, but not so much as the
40:42rural belt.
40:43Numbers don't seem to suggest that. The BJP has done very well in the urban belt, and even better
40:48in the rural belt.
40:50See, Preeti, first of all, I would like to comment on this Muslim thing.
40:55Why I'm saying so? Because I'm a little puzzled with these data. Because if you believe that the
41:00Muslims have not voted in block to the Mamata Banerjee, that means the Hindu consolidation
41:07theory in favor of the BJP is not true. Because that means the more Hindus have voted for
41:13Mamata Banerjee. So I think these two theories don't hold together. Let's wait for the sociological
41:20data when it comes out. And on that basis, we can talk about it. Like the CSDS data very categorically
41:25says in 2016, there was a 50% Muslim voted for the TMC. Whereas in 2021, they voted almost 71%.
41:35And in
41:36parliament election, they voted almost 75%. So that is, I can say, an authentic data. Because
41:41the data based on that how many seat BJP won and how many seat...
41:46No, fair point, Ashutosh. You're correct there. We are just going by the data that we have in terms of
41:50seats one and the percentage that we have.
41:52So, and let's also not forget, Mamata has not lost substantially. See, still hold 42%
42:00vote share. The BJP still holds something around 47% vote share. So just because there's a gap of 5%,
42:05we can't reach to the simplistic argument that the Hindus have deserted to Mamata Banerjee and
42:10Muslims have also deserted to Mamata Banerjee and everything has gone in favor of the BJP.
42:13That is not true. There's a 14 lakh vote gap between the BJP and the TMC.
42:21TMC. So what I'm saying is, let's wait for the final sociological data to come in. Okay.
42:26Only then we can reach to any conclusion. I will not jump to any conclusion as of now.
42:31Okay. Okay. You don't want to jump to any conclusion. Like I said, what we have right now are initial
42:35numbers and a deep dive in terms of the numbers and percentages. We have final comments. Rajat,
42:39would you want to step in? Because we add another factor to it, which is the campaign of the Prime
42:43Minister
42:44and Amit Shahid backfired in 2021 seemingly, this time down pat.
42:50See, the way the argument was made that Mamata hasn't lost enough vote shares. Similarly, I can
42:55say even in 2021, when BJP is secured upwards of 38% vote share, they did not lose in 2021.
43:00So they are building a strong permanent vote base. And mind you, the BJP has to start with a 0
43:08%
43:08vote share and climb up all the way, instead of having a 75% en masse vote bank of the
43:14Muslims that
43:15Mamata Banerjee has been cultivating. Therefore, BJP had done everything correct to in order from a
43:21campaign design standpoint to actually breach the theoretical limits that we were discussing in your
43:26studio, if you remember. People looking at the numbers, the hard numbers around, you know,
43:32seats which are theoretically virtually impossible for the BJP to come in and penetrate. In spite of
43:37that, BJP won those against all the mathematical odds. Look at some of the best commentators who
43:42were writing articles that it is theoretical impossibility for BJP to breach even the majority
43:47Moammar, forget the third majority. So I believe it has to be greater than the Muslim
43:53disintegration and Hindu consolidation. I think it is an all-out vote to remove
43:58You can see that.
43:59That's why, Rajat, we discussed anti-incumbency. I think anti-incumbency pan-Bengal has been the
44:06biggest factor. But let's also, before we go, address the elephant that's not in the room and
44:11that is the impact of SIR. Many would suggest that there was zero impact. Well, the BJP did,
44:16yes, win decisively. But possibly, you know, the share scale of its victory could have been
44:24minimized if you counter in the SIR. I want to give in one figure, which we have number crunched
44:29right now. Over 25,000 names were deleted, each from 147 constituencies. The BJP won 95 of the 47,
44:3951 were won by the TMC and won by the Congress. Of course, we are not assuming that the 25
44:44,000 votes
44:45that were won, that were deleted in these 147 each constituency would have voted for the TMC.
44:51But clearly, one can say that possibly the margin of victory would have been reduced or possibly the
44:57scale of number of seats could have been reduced. Let's get a quick final comment, 30 seconds each
45:03on that. Shikha Mukherjee, please go first.
45:06If you're asking about the SIR effect, I'm looking at the way in which numbers have been shaped in
45:14certain constituencies. And it's very, very interesting, but I'm waiting. I just need a
45:19little more time to even carefully analyze that data. But I am saying that the SIR did have an impact
45:27on how the two principal parties, the Tredumwal and the BJP performed, because the deletions in one
45:42instance benefited the other.
45:53The SIR also communicated a very loud political message to the people who had, who were feeling
46:03intimidated by the Tredumwal over the years. And that was the BJP is the big guy. They know how to
46:10control the beat.
46:11Okay, I want to take 20 seconds to the both other panelists. I really am short of time.
46:15Ashutosh, 20 seconds, and then I'll go across too. I'm sorry that we're running short of time. Go ahead, sir.
46:20See, on the SIR thing, the history will judge. I'm only holding my argument and not say
46:26that this is an institution-sponsored scientific rigging of a different kind.
46:33That was really quick. Thank you, Ashutosh, for keeping it quick. But I want to,
46:38you know, Rajat to bring you in, and I'll give you a, you know, we spoke about this earlier,
46:42but just a small example. 27 lakh, you know, which have fallen under logical discrepancy that
46:49were deleted. Even right to the last mile, you had the Supreme Court advise the, you know,
46:57the 19 tribunal judges to hear the cases. 14 lakh were flagged. They could only hear 1,400 cases,
47:05and they actually passed all 1,400 cases. What about the rest, Rajat? That one still needs to
47:10speak off. Certainly, they will go through the process of the tribunals and getting their name
47:16cleared. Clearly, there were enough of anecdotes wherein the age of the father is lower than the
47:21age of the son. So, these discrepancies, for whatever reason, have to be removed. Otherwise,
47:26the election would have continued to be rigged. And I'm appalled at this logical jump that the
47:31opposition narrative builders are taking, wherein they are assuming that all the names reduced,
47:36removed from the list, are naturally TMC voters. They could all be BJP voters.
47:41Fair point. Nobody is saying that. I think this is a question.
47:45No. Okay. All I'm, you know, what I'm saying here is this is not a question for a political party.
47:50This is a question for the chief election commissioner and the election commission to answer.
47:54Let us not take those logical jumps. I'm just saying it's a question.
47:57We are taking those logical jumps. Rajat, nobody is. I said that right in the beginning.
48:01Nobody's assuming that these deletions would have voted. No, no, but people are saying that history will judge SIR.
48:04History will judge SIR. Oh, that is for, okay. No, all I'm saying is why history could judge,
48:08I will defend Ashutosh as well, is the sheer fact that even if one legal voter was taken out
48:16because of logical discrepancy, then it is on the election commission of India.
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