- 2 days ago
Days after voting in a record number in the just concluded Tamil Nadu Assembly elections, all eyes are on May 4, the counting day when the fate of over four thousand candidates will be known.
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00:02Hello and welcome. Good evening. You're joining us live here on Super 6 on India Today. I'm
00:06Akshita and I'm the Gopala this evening as we count down to May 4th. Next week, this time,
00:12we'll have answers as to who the people of Tamil Nadu have chosen. But over the weekend,
00:16since polling day in Tamil Nadu, there's only been one topic of discussion. What will be
00:22the Vijay factor, the V factor in Tamil Nadu? Whose votes will he eat into? Did the DMK,
00:28AIA, DMK underestimate him? We're going to be getting you some numbers to give you a sense of
00:33what the TVK will need to achieve if they really want to take on the DMK and AIA, DMK. Of
00:39course,
00:39now the votes have been cast. So in a week from now, we'll know whether Vijay has managed to do
00:44that
00:45or not. That's a story that we're focusing on here at 6pm. But also coming up on the show,
00:50looking at the big national stories of the day, we're going to be talking about what's playing
00:55out in the armed Admi party. And the fact that Raghav Chadha, along with those handful of Rajasaba
00:59MPs that he took along with him and merged into the BJP, has been formally accepted. So no
01:05AARP's attempts at ensuring that there's disqualification hasn't worked out. We'll get
01:10you all of those details, including Raghav Chadha's clarification after he lost about 2 million
01:15followers soon after his announcement that he's merging with the Bharatiya Janata party. We'll get
01:20you those details. We begin with the headlines. High pitched campaigning in West Bengal concludes
01:28all eyes now on phase two polls on 142 seats on April 29th. Big verdict to be out on May
01:354th.
01:40Prime Minister Modi's heartfelt message to the people of Bengal says experience same spiritual
01:46resonance in Ayodhya and in Bengal. Vows job security to youth, safety to women in the state.
01:58And a big India today exclusive. Home Minister Amit Shah, confident of what he calls a BJP
02:04landslide in Bengal, says Mamta will lose Babanipur bastion as well.
02:14TMC MP's car vandalised by goons in Hooghly's Arambagh. Party blames BJP for the attack. BJP denies any hand,
02:22calls it an incident of clash between two TMC groups.
02:29Kejewal remains defiant, may face bailable warrant. High court issued notice, but Kejewal
02:35says will not appear. Kejewal confirms he will skip the high court hearing and so could face a warrant.
02:46Raghav Chhada's first attack after joining BJP says AAP had a toxic work culture. Seven AAP
02:53turncoat MPs formerly in the BJP now as Rajasabha chair approves plea of AAP MPs to join BJP.
03:09So, voters have sealed the fate of over 4,000 candidates in Tamil Nadu. The state now waits
03:15for D-Day on May 4th. We've got about 10 days between that, considering that polling happened
03:20last week and the results are on May 4th. And amid that, there's so much speculation,
03:24all centred around the one individual on your screens, around BJP. The reason this election
03:30in Tamil Nadu has been so interesting is because there's no way to really clearly make sense of
03:35what will be the result. Who has an edge? Who will be ahead in the numbers game? Impossible to
03:41predict, impossible to know, simply because of the Vijay factor. He's emerged as a key disruptor in
03:47state politics. And Revitian parties right now are on edge. Off record speak to many of these party
03:52leaders and they say that, look, we don't know what the numbers are going to be like simply because
03:57we don't know where Vijay will dent us. So, the question right now that's being asked across
04:02Tamil Nadu is what really will Vijay manage to do? Will he be the king or just the kingmaker or
04:08maybe
04:09the kingbreaker in such a circumstance? Strong appeal in urban pockets, strong appeal among youngsters,
04:15so much so that there's talk of how this election has been gentrified, courtesy of Vijay. It's reshaped
04:21the political equation in Tamil Nadu. But I want to focus on what I referred to earlier, the urban vote
04:27in Chennai. There's been a sharp surge in water turnout and I highlight these numbers. Why? Because
04:33over the last many days, there's been a lot of back and forth. The election commission has been
04:37constantly updating the numbers, figures on the water turnout. Yes, across Tamil Nadu has been a record
04:42water turnout. But what I want to highlight here is that 2021 versus 2026, huge surge there, 59% in
04:492021, nearly 83.6% in 2026 and that's excluding postal ballots. Now, because of SIR, you will see that
04:57percentage rise, which is why 59% becomes an 83.6%. If you look at it as far as numbers
05:03go, and this is
05:04where it's important to note because ultimately this is what it comes down to, the number of voters, because
05:10there you don't see an SIR impact per se, from 24 lakh to 24.22 lakh. What that means is
05:15about 20,000 numbers
05:16have only increased. So don't be fooled by the percentage going up by such a big margin. Ultimately,
05:22the number of voters in Chennai has gone up just by 20,000. That's still an important number at a
05:29time
05:29when there's so much focus on the urban vote. Let's get to what our reporters have to say. They've been
05:36tracking the mood on the ground. I'll bring in Pramod Madha first from Chennai. We'll also have all our other
05:42reporters up from Tamil Nadu. But Pramod, you know, over the weekend, there's been a lot of
05:48chatter, a lot of conversation about who has the edge, who doesn't. What are you picking up from
05:53your sources, Pramod, particularly on the Chennai vote? You know, this was the DMK strongholder in 2021,
06:00previously AIADMK. Are we going to see a new political player this time sweep votes in Chennai?
06:07Well, Akshita, I have to tell you very clearly, like, I am actually going through my sources from
06:11all the bodies, actually, including the one from the government, the one from the ruling part,
06:15the one from the opposition, and also the one that is kind of like an independent body,
06:19which actually is connected to the, you know, union government as well. So very clearly,
06:23each and every team has their own kind of, you know, explanations we provided. But one thing is
06:28very certain. They clearly say that TVK can get an actual vote percentage of 15 to 20 percent. That seems
06:35to be the average being given by everybody. But however, TVK, they believe that it could go over 30 percent,
06:41and they are going to be making the actual government. This is how the TVK is believing,
06:44and that is absolute confidence. TVK claims, I mean, my friends within TVK are actually planning
06:50to go ahead and form the cabinet as well. But is it too far-fetched? We know only by fourth
06:54way.
06:54But very clearly, TVK is going to have 15 to 20 percent is what all my sources across the table
06:59are telling me. But also, the important aspect here is that, like, will that cause…
07:04On that, nobody wants to give an assurance, Sakshita.
07:07Okay, 15 to 20 percent, you're saying, is what your sources are telling you will be TVK's impact.
07:12So that's a double-digit vote share. It's a great way to open your account when you're
07:16in the elections for the first time. One question is about whether that will translate into seats.
07:22That's a big question mark. Second, about who really he eats into.
07:27Pramod, is it more of an impact on the DMK, more of an impact on the AIDMK? The way I
07:31see it,
07:31there's urban minorities stacked on one side, anti-incumbency stacked on one side. And on the
07:38other, again, for the AIA-DMK, all the votes that would have gone to them for those who have,
07:42you know, anger against the DMK, that gets cut, as does several other factors. So which side really
07:49is hurt more? Well, if you have to put this in such kind of manner, I really don't want to
07:56hurt
07:56any kind of party men or anything like that. But the important aspect here is that, like,
07:59one of the parties when it comes to DMK, they have constantly been relying upon
08:03their ideology and their kind of policies. But when it comes to AIA-DMK, it has always been the
08:08star value, be it JL, be it MGR. So here, it apparently looks like always, even though Vijay
08:14has been constantly claiming that the competition is between DMK and TVK, Vijay has been constantly
08:20trying to replace AIA-DMK with TVK. And on the ground, I could clearly see that those many
08:25who had favoured AIA-DMK earlier, quite a few of them, quite a lot of them have gone ahead and
08:30apparently opted for TVK. And then you also have the neutral voters. And just like you mentioned,
08:35voters who want to have a change, a change that has been promised by Vijay, they are actually also
08:40opted for whistle. But the important aspect here is that, very clearly, on that particular day,
08:45a silent way of acting also, TVKians did, and that was wearing a white shirt and a khaki pant.
08:50They were at various booths and they were standing, and in a silent way, they were greeting each other
08:55after casting the vote. So that way, it was a new kind of play in Tamil Nadu elections,
09:00but that was very clearly evident on the ground, Akshita.
09:02Okay, a long wait now, Pramod, for about seven days. But May 4th, while maybe a week away,
09:09you can watch out for our exit polls, which is in two days from now. Day after, by 5pm, we
09:14start our
09:15extensive coverage of the exit poll, which will give you a sense of which way Tamil Nadu is going.
09:19But to all ask for Vijay, let's be very clear that while there's a lot of talk about what really
09:24the Vijay factor will be in this election, there's also a lot that he has to achieve when taking on
09:29the Dravidian giants. What really will be the numbers that Vijay needs to be able to stand a
09:34chance against the DMK and the AIA-DMK? If you look at it, essentially, there's a 30%
09:40vote share that he needs in every single seat to register a win. And I'm talking about individual seats.
09:45Why? Because only if he gets 30% plus in each of these seats, can one of those translate to
09:50a win
09:50in that seat. So for it to count as a seat win, 30% plus in each of the two
09:5533 seats that the TVK
09:57is contesting in. Besides that, if you look at Chennai alone, he needs a 40% plus vote share in
10:04Chennai.
10:05Remember that the DMK in Chennai was about 43%. So if he wants to really be like the DMK wave
10:11that was
10:12in Chennai district, he needs 40% plus in the city alone. And that's about 16 seats in Chennai.
10:19Let's also look at the minority factor. Remember that largely about 60% of Christian votes went to
10:26the DMK in the last election. So for Vijay to stand a chance, he needs to replicate what the
10:31DMK has done in minorities. As far as minorities go, there's Dalits, there's Christians who largely
10:36the TVK is banking on. And so in such a circumstance, for the Christian vote share alone,
10:42Vijay, who of course in this election has been referring to himself as Joseph Vijay, will be
10:46looking at about 60% to come his way. The anti-incumbency vote. Very often in every election
10:52in Tamil Nadu, you'll see a swing of about 2% back and forth. Whoever's in power and considering
10:57Tamil Nadu is one of those states that sees a seesaw trend, 2% of anti-incumbency vote is always
11:02taken into account. Vijay will want that 2% to come into his kitty. He's going to have to fight
11:07the AIE DMK for that. So those are the numbers that he actually needs to achieve to be able to
11:13stand
11:13a chance in this election, and beyond stand a chance if he wants to make an impact.
11:18We bring in on this broadcast our panelists who are joining us. We have Selim Dhani Dharan,
11:23spokesperson of the DMK, Suman Si Raman, political analyst, and also Mr. Satya Kumar of the Tamirga
11:29Vetrikargam, of the TVK. I'll begin with Dr. Suman Si Raman. Mr. Suman Si Raman, over the weekend,
11:35since you've had time to look at the numbers of water turnout, look at some of the information that's
11:40trickling in from some of these seats, including the high water turnout in, let's say, a Perambur,
11:44where Vijay is contesting. What do you make of this electoral contest now, sir?
11:50Akshita, I'm honestly sort of dumbstruck by some of this stuff about Vijay getting 30% and 40%. I don't
12:00know where it is coming from. So I am extremely skeptical. I have been very vocal on saying that
12:08I am extremely skeptical about this. I do not expect Vijay's TVK to have a vote share of maybe
12:16around 20-22% in places like Chennai and maybe anywhere between 10-15% in rural Tamil Nadu. In
12:25fact,
12:26in rural Tamil Nadu, it could even be lower. I don't expect them to win more than single-digit,
12:32low single-digit seats, if at all, if Vijay wins possibly in Perambur. But other than that,
12:38I really can't see… You don't see him winning the other seat of Richie East?
12:42Who are they going to spoil? No, I don't see that. I think DMK will hold Richie East.
12:49My concern is now clearly on who Vijay is going to damage more, whether it's AIA-DMK or DMK.
12:57I personally think he is going to damage both sides. I don't think that it's going to be a one
13:02-sided damage.
13:03No, but it surely can't be a 50s to 50 ratio of him denting equally DMK and AIA-DMK.
13:08It can be. It can be. See, I will give you an example. If he is taking votes in high
13:14Dalit
13:16constituencies where he is believed to be taking a lot of the Dalit votes, then it damages the DMK there.
13:21In the Congo region, he is clearly damaging the AIA-DMK. So, it's not a question of whether he is
13:29damaging DMK or AIA-DMK. He is damaging both. The only question is, who does he damage more in terms
13:36of the geographic region? See, I will give you an example. Vijay taking even 40% vote in Chennai is
13:41irrelevant to the AIA-DMK because they are not winning Chennai anyway. Either TVK does some magic and
13:48wins one or two seats or DMK takes the cake in Chennai. So, whereas in these rural seats,
13:54particularly in places like the Congo belt, does the TVK do enough harm to the AIA-DMK to make them
14:02lose significant number of seats to the DMK? That is where this fight is. This fight is not in Chennai.
14:08Whatever happens in Chennai, Vijay can take how many percentage votes he wants. It's not going to impact
14:13the final outcome of this contest. That is my point. Okay. Okay. Let me bring in
14:18Selim Dhanidharan also on this broadcast. Dhanidharan, you know, we've had you join us in the course
14:23of the last many months while we've spoken of Vijay, we've spoken of what really the impact will be,
14:28and constantly the DMK has maintained that he is no threat. Would you concede today looking at the
14:34voter turnout, looking at the support, looking at all of the analysis that's coming in that maybe
14:39Vijay has been underestimated by the DMK? See, I really do not want to speculate the results.
14:45The election is over, the results are going to come on May 4, then we will know the reality.
14:48But certain things I want to say is that, see, SAR has removed a lot of voters. So,
14:53every state election that we have seen after SAR, be it Bihar or elsewhere,
14:57the vote percentage has been significantly higher. No, no. Even if you mind, even if you...
15:01So, Dhanidharan, I have made that clear distinction. Look, we've put out the percentage
15:04and put out the numbers for a reason, because we know that that percentage can be misleading.
15:07I understand. That's why I'm saying, if you minus 17 lakhs from the electoral list of 21,
15:13it again reaches some 80 odd percent. Maybe the actual percentage increase will be 3 percent.
15:18But I'll ask you one question, right? So, do you think there is an anti-incumbency? As a DMK
15:23spokesperson, I say there is no anti-incumbency. Do you think there is anti-incumbency in Tamil or not?
15:27I will answer that question, because I've been facing a lot of these questions, including from Mr.
15:31Suman Si Raman. I believe that Stalin holds a lot of goodwill, that yes,
15:35his image is what's propelling the DMK forward. Is there local anti-incumbency? Women, safety?
15:42On women's safety, yes. Again, on farmers, farmers have, there is anti-incumbency there.
15:46So, there are pockets where there is, yes. So, do you think this anti-incumbency is lower
15:51than 2011 or higher than 2011, where we came third? In fact, we didn't become the opposition.
15:57Yeah, yeah. Lower, lower, much lower, right? Yeah. So, DMK managed to get nearly 40 percent in 2011,
16:04with supposedly much higher anti-incumbency. So, and now we have a much stronger alliance partner,
16:11like DMTK and several other parties have joined, M&M have joined it, which means DMK's vote share is not
16:17going to go below 40 percent. The worst case, worst. Okay, I'll bring in, I'll bring in Mr.
16:23No, no, let me complete, let me complete. Okay, quickly, yeah. So, NTK and the independence have
16:27about 8 percent, which is about 92 percent, which is about least 92 percent, which means there is
16:33worst maximum seat available for TVK plus ADMK is only 52 percent. If TVK gets to even 20 percent,
16:43it is 32 percent ADMK. I'm saying it's worst case worse. That's convenient math for the DMK.
16:50That's convenient math for the DMK. I'll bring in Mr. Satya Kumar of the TVK of this broadcast.
16:55Ultimately, Mr. Satya Kumar, while everyone's talking about what will be the Vijay impact,
16:59and there's no way to really quantify how much or where he'll gain, is it only about vote-cutter?
17:05Is Vijay in this election just a vote-cutter element?
17:09My leader, Talabadi Vijay, is the king of Tamil Nadu. The result will show on May 4th. Mark these
17:19words because 40 percent, almost in all constituencies, the youths are completely voted
17:27to TVK. Nobody can deny it. Youths have completely rejected DMK and ADMK because of one single reason.
17:35There's no staunch leadership. There's no committed leadership. The performance of the government in
17:41the last five years, you know what all happened in Tamil Nadu, Akshita. Because you have been tracking
17:46Tamil Nadu. Be it the women's safety, be it the COXO cases that has increased in Tamil Nadu. These are
17:53not factual information which I am providing here. The youths are watching it and they need a primary
17:57force. Today, Talabadi Vijay ushers real-time governance and also clean government. And he has
18:05fielded candidates who are from ordinary family backgrounds. And Tamil Nadu accepts those kind
18:12of leaders because social justice is in action. Okay, but Mr. Satyakumar, you've, you know,
18:16highlighted what Vijay stands for. What I'm asking you is numbers-wise. If you look at the numbers,
18:21how really does the TVK plan to ensure that they have the vote-share, seat-share to defeat a DMK
18:26or AIA-DMK? See, the arithmetics of this, this election is completely different from other
18:32elections. Look at, for example, all those political experts, the so-called political experts.
18:36They keep, they are not able to surely say who will form the government, even after the elections,
18:41even after looking at the polling data. That's what I'm referring to. That's why I'm saying
18:44Vijay is a vote-cutter. That's the reason I'm saying. Why are they not able to say? Because Vijay is
18:48the king.
18:53So go ahead, go ahead, sir. I'm saying that essentially, Vijay is a vote-cutter. That's why
18:57nobody's able to say what exactly is the election. No, he's not a vote-cutter. He's the primary force.
19:00The entire election is revolving around Vijay and Vijay, Talabadi Vijay is the king. That's what
19:05I'm trying to say. How many times do you say the same thing? Dharani Raman or Mr. Suman Siharaman
19:10are not able to even clearly predict. 40% of youth in every constituency are voted completely
19:18to Talabadi Vijay. No, I'll tell you. Okay. For his face only, we got the votes. Okay,
19:23let me bring in Suman Siharaman. Yes, sir. When they look at the whistle,
19:26when they look at the whistle in the ballot boxes... I may not be able to... No, let me complete.
19:31Let me complete. Okay, quickly, sir. Quickly. As a politician, I need a space to speak here. Yeah,
19:36go ahead, sir. Go ahead. Suman Siharaman speaks on every subject here. I need a space here. No,
19:39no, no, come on. Because I've been invited in my time. Finish your point. Finish your point.
19:42Yeah, let me complete. Yeah. Suman Siharaman, please be patient. If you can.
19:47Which you don't seem to be in any of the programs. Sir, please make your point. Right. Yes. See,
19:53as a party, look at this data. Completely the women's are towards voting Talabadi Vijay.
19:59He's the face of the party. And every constituency in certain places, let me be factual, they don't
20:06know the candidate, but they know Talabadi Vijay as the face. They believe the leader. They have a lot
20:12of trust on my leader. And that's how they voted for the whistle. 40% in every constituency, the youth
20:17population, were deserting the election. This is the first time happening in Tamil Nadu. In the history
20:22of Tamil Nadu. Sir, what you're suggesting then is a wave. What you're suggesting, Mr. Satyakumar,
20:27is a wave. And that wasn't evident. Yes. It's a wave. Vijay wave. That wasn't evident to the water
20:30turnout. Vijay wave. In fact, you should title the program as Vijay wave. No, no, no, no. Mr. Suman Siharaman,
20:36go ahead. Yeah. Look, we may not be able to predict accurately whether the AIA DMK is coming to power
20:43or the DMK is retaining power. But one thing we can predict is TVK is not coming to power. That
20:49is something
20:49that we can clearly predict. Right? So, there is no way. They are completely delusional, Akshita.
20:55And I can... You know, I'm... This is an undemocratic statement.
21:02That they are... They are completely delusional. Hold on, Mr. Satyakumar, hold on. Let him make his
21:06point. They are getting carried away. No, I should take back his statement. No, no. We'll get...
21:09We'll give you a chance to respond. Just hold on, please. Let's keep this civil, please. Let's keep this civil.
21:14Mr. Satyakumar, just hold on, please. Why should I take back his statement in Tamil Nadu?
21:18What is undemocratic? What is undemocratic? What is undemocratic? What is undemocratic about saying
21:24that you are living in a delusional world? Because you are not the representative of the population of
21:26the population of Tamil Nadu. You are living in a fantasy land.
21:28No, I'm not living in fantasy land. I'm saying all the facts.
21:29I am not representative, sir. It is my prerogative. Yeah, you may express your opinion,
21:34but don't make an undemocratic statement. Okay. Good luck. Good luck. It's only another one week to be in.
21:38Okay. There is nothing undemocratic at it. It's my point of view. My opinion after seeing the data...
21:46Mr. Satyakumar, come on. Just hold on for a second, please. I'll give you a chance to respond.
21:49He is not coming to power. And in my opinion, he is not going to be more than no single
21:54-digit seats,
21:54if at all. Good luck, sir. Good luck. We'll see on 4th of May who is coming to power.
21:59Okay, okay, okay. The question is only... Okay, right. Leave it, actually. Yeah, I don't want to argue.
22:05I'll bring it, Mr. Dhani Dharan. I'll give a bit of a pause to this back and forth. Mr. Dhani
22:09Dharan,
22:10you know, you've heard what the TVK has said. They're saying we're very confident that youth is
22:14with us. And this is something that everyone's been talking about. That this election, this election,
22:19Dhani Dharan, has been gentrified with the entry of Vijay. That no other party has been able to capture the
22:25imagination of the youth as the TVK as Vijay has. See, first of all, I would come in and say,
22:32it's a free world and people are entitled to their own opinions. So, if Sumansi Raman has an opinion,
22:36the TVK is going to get a zero. This is opinion. And I don't think why that statement should be
22:41taken
22:41back. If someone comes and says something about my party, okay, it's their opinion. And May 4th,
22:47we are going to actually see the actual results. I think this is the first time I've seen a DMK
22:49leader
22:49back Mr. Sumansi Raman, but go ahead. No, it's not about individuals. It's about the point. So,
22:54I'm not saying it. I'm against any, I don't want to make a point because I'm against the TVK here.
23:00All I'm trying to make, I'm trying to make sense. It's a free world. People can entitled to their
23:03views. As simple as that. I am saying May 4th, we will see the results. I don't know why TVK's
23:08spokesperson has to get so agitated. Whatever he's going to speak now is not going to change the
23:11result, does it? I am saying there is no way. No, no, I'm not agitated. I'm only making my opinion.
23:16I have my rights to make opinion, right? Okay, so the whole point is... Mr. Satya Kumar, just hold on.
23:20Yeah. No, I am saying DMK is going to come to power. No, I'll give you a chance to respond,
23:25sir.
23:25Just hold on, please. Otherwise, it just goes back and forth. I am saying DMK is going to come to
23:30power with 200 seats. He is saying, you know, TVK will, there's a big youth wave, TVK will come to
23:35power.
23:36I'm saying, my view is right. He is saying his view is right. May 4th, we are going to see
23:41the actual
23:41result. Why get agitated? I stand by my view. He is entitled to stand by his view. Okay.
23:46Look at that. No, no, but Danidharan, answer my question about youth and the fact that, you know,
23:51there's a lot of conversation and talk, which Satya Kumar did refer to as well, that youngsters
23:55essentially are with Vijay, are with TVK. We've seen that in the form of social media campaigns,
24:01you know, like I said, that this election has been gentrified as a result of Vijay entering this
24:05election. See, we all know the elections are not fought on social media. Otherwise, Twitter polls
24:11are sufficient to decide who will be the next chief minister. Even Anke Annamalai who did win the,
24:16to be honest, social media war until 2024. But when it comes to C translation, he got zero seats
24:21and then he has removed as a BJP president. So, actual grassroots politics is very different
24:26from social media politics. I know a lot of youngsters who also voted for the DMK. So,
24:32when Tamil Nadu has always had a space for the third front, since 1980s itself, you see,
24:37there's always a third front. There was Waikop, then there was Tamil Manila Congress,
24:41then there was DMDK, which went up to 15 percent. Then there was, then Seaman going up to 10,
24:47touching going towards 10 percent. Now there is Vijay. Of course, Vijay may get us
24:53certain vote share that will be befitting of the third party that is always received in Tamil Nadu.
24:58In the DMK's estimate, what is that vote share?
25:00In the DMK's estimate, what is that vote share?
25:04See, how do I know what the vote share will be? I only know that we will win the election.
25:08I can't
25:08exactly predict what their vote share will be. I do not want to speculate.
25:13Okay. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Let me bring in Mr. Satyakumar now. You've been waiting patiently.
25:17That's the reason I told nobody can predict this election because Vijay factor works in favor of
25:23Talabadi Vijay. No, no. So, so, so Mr. Satyakumar, explain how. Give me data to back really what the
25:29TVK strategy is here. Do you believe that you're eating more into the DMK's vote pace
25:33or the AIA DMK's? What's the strategy? Which region are you focused on?
25:37We are not eating. Vote transfer happens automatically because of two reasons. One,
25:42because of the charismatic leadership of my leader Talabadi Vijay. Two, because of the
25:47governance issues, corruption issues and women's safety issues, youth, unemployed youth,
25:52the vote transfer happens automatically from DMK to Talabadi Vijay. Second, the AIA DMK
25:59vote split happens because of non-charismatic leadership of Mr. Yadapadik Pandhiswami.
26:06So, from both sides. Dr. Sumanci Raman… Absolutely.
26:08Okay. So, Dr. Sumanci Raman… We are a primary force. We are not a vote cut-out.
26:12Okay. Dr. Sumanci Raman, how much of, you know, the youth factor actually matters in this kind of an election?
26:18No, no. See, like I said, there are three, four groups of voters who are going to vote for TVK,
26:23who have voted for TVK. One of them are the new voters who have not voted in the previous election.
26:29This does not damage either DMK or ADMK. The second group of voters are people who probably voted
26:3620K, the same youth. And the third group of voters are the only group we are concerned about because
26:41they are, they have previously voted either AIA DMK or DMK. That's the only group that we are really
26:46bothered about because that is what people would potentially decide in this election.
26:50Now, having said that, I personally believe that Vijay will take a bit of vote from both sides.
26:57He is taking certain defined community votes from, from the DMK side and he's taking the
27:10anti-incumbency vote from the parties. How big a hit it is going to be, we'll have to wait and
27:15see.
27:15But I think the important thing, Akshita, is after this election is over, I think there should be a
27:21cabinet of Tamil Nadu formed on Instagram and the TVK must be allowed to have their cabinet on Insta,
27:30Facebook and all social media platforms and run a government for five years.
27:35Okay. Okay. Mr. Satyakumar, I'll give you a chance to respond.
27:38I'll give you a chance. Go ahead.
27:39I would like to make a statement, Akshita. Can I? Can I?
27:40Yes. Yes. Please.
27:41I think Mr. Suman C. Raman is underestimating the power of the social media, including India
27:47today is in social media. Even journalists are in social media. Even prime ministers and
27:51chief ministers are on social media. He can't underestimate the power of social media,
27:55may make mocking at the people who are on Instagram. Even Mr. Suman C. Raman is in Twitter.
27:59I am not mocking. Why is he in Twitter if it is not a relevant place? Why is he making
28:06comment on
28:07everything in the country? Okay. Simple. Why should I not have a right to comment on anything?
28:12It's a free country. It's a free country. It's a free country.
28:17To spread democratic values in our country, constitutional values in our country. I think
28:21Mr. Suman C. Raman should stop the sarcasm. Okay. All right. Mr. Satyakumar, point taken.
28:26Thank you very much for joining us. Thank you, Mr. Dhani Dharan, for joining us on this broadcast.
28:30Mr. Suman C. Raman, I'll just request you to stay with me because I'd like your word on another aspect
28:34also. You know, while we focus on the big takeaways of what this election will seal on the AIA-DMK,
28:40is this a do or die for AIA-DMK for Edipadi Paradi Swabi? I just have some interesting numbers and
28:47data figures there for you. In the 2021 elections, just look at the vote share that we've put out
28:51of the DMK with their allies and of the AIA-DMK with their allies. So, the DMK plus was above
28:5648%,
28:57the AIA-DMK at 39%. But then from that time, from 2021 to now, the only benchmark based on which
29:04you can really say how these parties have performed is looking at by-elections. Across three by-elections,
29:10held between 2021 to 2025, the DMK and the allies actually increased their average vote share. So,
29:17from 48%, they increased that to 62%. So, that shows really a growth for them, a positive swing
29:23of 14%. As far as the AIA-DMK is concerned, it's come down 39% to 29%. And so, that's
29:30a negative swing
29:31of 10%. And that number right there is quite worrying for AIA-DMK, Mr. Suman C. Raman. Do you think,
29:38while we're all talking about Vijay, this election is perhaps more crucial for EPS and AIA-DMK to kind
29:43of prove their mettle, prove that electorally they're still relevant? Okay. Akshita, first of
29:50all, this data is incorrect. The 2021 assembly election, DMK plus's vote share was 45.3%. So,
29:56it is not 48%. The difference was not 10%. The difference was only around 5.5%. Having said
30:03that, by-elections in Tamil Nadu are basically options where people are paid huge sums of money
30:08to vote. And therefore, by-elections have never reflected. If you take by-elections when
30:15AIA-DMK was in power, they would have won every by-elections. Okay, then let's talk about the
30:21Lok Sabha election. 2024 Lok Sabha elections also didn't go the AIA-DMK space.
30:30So, I don't think by-elections are an indication. It's a by-elections. Yes.
30:34Okay. I'm sorry. We're having a bit of a problem with your connection, Mr. Suman C. Raman, but we'll
30:38leave it at that. For the AIA-DMK too, whether you look at the by-elections as a factor, whether
30:44you
30:45look at the Lok Sabha elections as a factor, ultimately, the AIA-DMK hasn't had a whole stream of good
30:51news that's come their way. Since EPS took over, the only electoral win that they've had were a few
30:57bipoles before 2021. Since 2021, absolutely nothing that's gone their way. And so many would say that
31:03for the AIA-DMK, this is a very, very crucial test for EPS, a leadership test as well.
31:13A group of supporters linked to the Telugu Desim party reportedly stormed a live performance,
31:19demanding an apology for a joke that was scrapped by a comedian two years ago about Chandra Babu
31:26Naidu and Nara Lokesh, despite the comedian having already apologized earlier. Let me highlight that
31:31again. This was a joke that he'd cracked two years ago, apologized for two years ago, and yet faces
31:37disruptions even today. Here's what happened in Bengaluru when the comedian was performing.
31:44Let's play that out for you.
31:51Sir, Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir,
31:56I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know.
32:03Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I
32:12know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir,
32:19I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know.
32:19Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I
32:19know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know. Sir, I know
32:19Do you want to gather?
32:19Yes, we are.
32:21I am sure I give you the customer.
32:22Hey, I have our customer.
32:23Come here, come here.
32:25I don't have to.
32:26You're gonna ?
32:29How are you doing?
32:31How are you doing?
32:33How are you doing?
32:34How are you doing?
32:35How about you doing it?
32:35How are you doing it?
32:35As long as things come from the light and shut the light down,
32:37We are coming from that.
32:38Sir, I'm going to talk too.
32:40Not words.
32:42They are asking, I am not saying.
32:42I am not asking.
32:43I am not asking.
32:43I am not asking.
32:44That's why I am sorry.
32:45Sorry?
32:46Okay.
32:46Hey, I am OK.
32:53I am really sorry for whatever this happened, I am really sorry, I am really sorry, I am
33:24Now after that video went viral, TDP leaders distanced themselves from the incident, but unfortunately this isn't the first time
33:31we have seen politicians and their supporters have really thin skin when it comes to comedy, contrast that to other
33:37countries like America, where stand-up comedians on a daily basis mock, poke,
33:41fun of Trump without any censorship, and here a joke from two years ago continues to lead to vigilantism, hooliganism
33:50by some goons, they are exactly that, goons who can disrupt an event publicly and get away with it, the
33:56comedian no, no question of it at all, no question of him getting away with a joke.
34:06Okay, and let's cut across now to breaking news that's coming in right now from Karnataka.
34:13Even as Karnataka Minister D. Sudhakar is in hospital, you've got H.D. Kumaraswamy now floating a conspiracy theory claiming
34:21that his health issues were deliberately hidden and that the Karnataka government is not giving out details of exactly what
34:30the minister's health condition is to misuse his thumb impression.
34:33Now, this is what H.D. Kumaraswamy has alleged that details of, in fact, the minister's health condition, who's currently
34:41hospitalized, is not being revealed on purpose.
34:44Listen in to what H.D. Kumaraswamy has said.
34:46Have a closer look at this at this point to the huge risk of a corporation that exists in Karnataka.
35:21So the political fight continuing over the minister being hospitalized.
35:25You've got the opposition suggesting that these are leaders in the government trying to misuse his thumb impression for grants
35:33for approvals.
35:34The ARP has officially lost seven of their MPs.
35:38So from having 10 in Rajasabha, they're now down to three.
35:42Two-thirds of their MPs formally merged with the BJP.
35:45The big political surprise came two days ago.
35:48But now the Rajasabha chairman has accepted the merger,
35:51which means Raghav Chadha and the handful of other ARP MPs who wanted to merge,
35:55it's officially been accepted.
35:57They're now part of the BJP.
35:58Boost for the NDA, their numbers go up.
36:01Armadi Party's numbers have dwindled down.
36:03But amid that, Raghav Chadha also has faced a whole lot of scrutiny, criticism and questions.
36:09So much so that in his Instagram, he lost 2 million followers after his announcement of merging with the BJP.
36:15It prompted him to release a video as well explaining his decision referring to ARP as an organization that has
36:22a toxic work culture.
36:31And with this, Raghav Chadha and six other Armadmi Party MPs announced joining the BJP.
36:38Sending a double jolt to the AAP.
36:41In the latest following protocol, Rajasabha chairperson has now approved proposal
36:46for all the seven Armadmi Party MPs to join the Bharatiya Janata Party,
36:51clearing the deck for all rebel MPs.
36:54After the shift, BJP's strength in the Rajasabha rises to 113 MPs.
37:00This development is likely to impact legislative dynamics and voting arithmetic in the parliament.
37:07Releasing a fresh video, Raghav Chadha, while thanking his welversha, is charged at his former party.
37:41Meanwhile, the BJP also jumped.
37:43He also jumped in to attack the Armadmi Party.
37:46Admin Kejriwal, who wants to do legal work, where he wants to do it, he wants to do it in
37:50court.
37:51He wants to do it in the court. He wants to do it in the court.
37:52But we know that the Raghav Chadha, who is the president, is the law.
37:58That's why they want to do what they want to do in their rights and their rights and their rights.
38:03Responding to the charges, Armadmi Party MP Sanjay Singh mentioned
38:07the petition submitted to the Rajasabha chairperson, seeking termination of seven defector MPs.
38:37Even Amadmi Party spokesperson, Saurabh Bhardwaj, attacked Raghav Chadha.
38:41Saying that Chadha's political rise, including the visibility that led to his marriage with Parineethi Chopra,
38:47was possible only because Armadmi Party gave him a Rajasabha seat.
39:12As AAP explores options to bring the anti-defection law, the tide has indeed turned for the members of parliament
39:18for now.
39:19Who will here on shift, not just the parliament bench, but also the political ideology toward the Bhartya Janata party.
39:26With Ashutosh and Pooja Shali, Bureau Report for India Today.
39:34Okay, let me bring in Aishwarya Paliwal for more details on the significant booster ultimately for the BJP and the
39:40NDA in the Rajasabha.
39:42If you look at the numbers, Aishwarya, but I want to focus right now on the Armadmi Party.
39:46You know, they've been talking about legal action, about ensuring the disqualification of these MPs.
39:52Is that something that's an avenue they can still explore now with the Rajasabha chair formally approving the merger?
40:00No, Akshata. You know, what we are seeing now is the formality that is now happening.
40:04And, you know, a stamp of approval, in fact, has now been given.
40:07And, you know, you also look at the latest letter which has now come out.
40:10In that letter from 107, you look at the members who are now part of the BJP from 107 till
40:16113.
40:17Those are the names of the Armadmi Party and those names are under the BJP.
40:21So, the formal merger has now happened.
40:24Even if the Armadmi Party says that they will be taking a legal course, there is nothing much that they
40:28can do about it,
40:28except the finger-pointing Akshata, which we are seeing taking place at the moment.
40:32All right. Aishwarya, thanks very much for joining us with those details.
40:35You're right, the political blame game will continue.
40:38But, ultimately, the Rajasabha chair has given his nod.
40:41So, these MPs have formally been inducted into the Bharatiya Janata Party.
40:45Therefore, the NDA's number is rising in the upper house in the Rajasabha.
41:09And let's get you the latest updates on the news that came in on the weekend of yet another attempt
41:13to assassinate Trump.
41:15This time at the White House Correspondents' Dinner.
41:17What's known so far of the shooter who was caught right outside the ballroom in the Hilton Hotel?
41:23Let's get you those details.
41:24His manifesto has been accessed where he says that he was going after a pedophile, referring to Trump as a
41:30pedophile.
41:31Well, amid that, there are serious questions also being asked of the Secret Service of how the shooter got so
41:36close to the venue
41:38where Donald Trump, where all of his cabinet, was for the event.
42:03A shocking security breach at one of Washington's most high-profile events,
42:08the White House Correspondents' Dinner at the Hilton.
42:11There's the president being escorted.
42:13The president being escorted at one side.
42:15The vice president being escorted.
42:25The incident triggered immediate panic.
42:43President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump were swiftly evacuated by security.
42:5031-year-old Cole Allen, a teacher and video game developer from California, is arrested.
42:57He is expected to face federal charges, including assault on a federal officer and using a firearm during a crime
43:04of violence.
43:09I see a man charged a security checkpoint armed with multiple weapons.
43:16And he was taken down by some very brave members of Secret Service, and they acted very quickly.
43:21And I've just released, for purposes of transparency, clarity, I've ordered it to be put out.
43:30You probably have it by now, put out on truth and put out on many of the platforms.
43:37Acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blank says the suspect likely acted alone and appears to have been targeting Trump
43:45and other senior administration officials.
43:52Investigators claim Allen is not cooperating.
43:57We are actively combing through all the evidence that we've collected and going to continue to do that today and
44:05in the coming days and weeks.
44:07And if he did not act alone or if folks knew what he was doing or helped him along the
44:11way, we will find that out.
44:13We don't have evidence to show that as of.
44:17According to U.S. authorities, Allen traveled from Los Angeles to Washington by train,
44:22checked into the Hilton on April 24th, and attempted to force his way through a security checkpoint during the event.
44:29He allegedly fired a shotgun at a Secret Service agent before being overpowered and arrested.
44:36Federal agencies are now examining his electronic devices to determine motive, planning and any possible links.
44:46U.S. media reports say Allen sent a disturbing manifesto to family members just before the incident,
44:52outlining targets within the administration and describing his tactical choices.
44:58The message already included explicit violent intent and references to minimizing casualties,
45:04while acknowledging the risk of wider harm.
45:08He reportedly referred to himself as a friendly federal assassin and detailed a plan to target high-ranking government officials.
45:18Trump has called the suspect a sick individual filled with hatred and claimed the attacker was anti-Christian.
45:27The man has been captured.
45:31They're going to his apartment. I guess he lives in California.
45:35And he's a sick person, a very sick person.
45:38And we don't want things like this to happen.
45:40I think it's very important that I say, though, and I told the representatives of the evening,
45:45they did such a beautiful job with such a beautiful evening.
45:47But I said very importantly that we'll do it again within the next 30 days.
45:53It will make it bigger and better and even nicer.
45:58Trump has renewed his push for a high-security ballroom within the White House complex.
46:05He argued that such an incident would not have occurred if a high-security ballroom had already been operational.
46:12It's not a particularly secure building.
46:18And I didn't want to say this, but this is why we have to have all of the attributes of
46:25what we're planning at the White House.
46:27It's actually a larger room and it's much more secure.
46:31It's drone-proof. It's bulletproof glass.
46:34We need the ballroom. That's why Secret Service.
46:36That's why the military are demanding it.
46:38White House correspondent in a shooting suspect, Cole Allen, who is 31 years old,
46:43he actually wrote a manifesto that stated that he planned to target Trump administration officials,
46:50prioritizing them from highest ranking to lowest.
46:53Now, this basically means everybody was his target in the Trump administration,
46:57be it the president, the vice president, various secretaries, including Secretary Rubio was there,
47:03Secretary Hexed, RFK Jr., I mean, Doug Burgum, you name it,
47:08and everybody was in that room and everybody was his potential target.
47:12After the major security breach, a deeper investigation is underway
47:16into any wider conspiracy to target the president.
47:22With Rohit Sharma, from Washington, D.C., Bureau Report, India Today.
47:30And with that detailed report, I'm wrapping up this edition of Super 6.
47:33Thanks very much for tuning in. I'll see you at the same time tomorrow.
47:36I'll see you at the same time tomorrow.
47:36I'll see you at the same time tomorrow.
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