00:00So let's raise the big questions on this big polling day.
00:04What does the high turnout in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu mean for potentially the results in these states?
00:10Do women and youth hold the key to the final verdict?
00:15X-Factors, SIR in Bengal and Vijay in Tamil Nadu?
00:20Some of the questions I want to raise with top pollsters.
00:23Joining me now, Pradeep Gupta, Chairman and Managing Director, Access My India.
00:27Sanjay Kumar, Co-Director, Lok Neeti, CSDS.
00:30And joining me now, Yashwan Deshmukh of C-Voter.
00:34Good to have all of you on the show today.
00:36Let me start with you, Pradeep.
00:38What do you make out of these big turnout numbers?
00:41Both in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal, we are seeing a record turnout.
00:46Does it indicate anti-incumbency?
00:49Are these high voter turnouts suggesting that voters could be voting to remove a government?
00:54Can we draw such conclusions at all?
00:59Rajdeep, thank you for having me here.
01:02This conclusion of voter turnout versus it is favoring to the incumbent or the challenger
01:06is the olden days theory.
01:09It does not have any kind of empirical evidence in the recent past of last 20 years.
01:15Does higher voter turnout has favor or against any incumbent government?
01:20So, let's not get into that, I would say, at this point.
01:25Interesting.
01:26You're saying don't look at the turnout figures.
01:28Because remember, as we need to reiterate, these high voter turnouts also are partly because
01:33a number of dead voters have been deleted under SIR.
01:38So, there were voter deletions.
01:39But what matters then more, according to you, Pradeep?
01:42Is it gender breakup, particularly in states like West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, where women
01:47voters have often been seen to make a difference in this past?
01:50Should we say if it's a higher voter turnout, would you see that as the real significance,
01:54more than actual overall voter turnout numbers?
02:00Pradeep, let's keep the voter turnout at this point of time.
02:04But I can tell you with my experience and study, whatever we have done so far, this is definitely
02:10not an exit point.
02:11But we are trying to understand the political dynamics playing in on the ground as on date.
02:17So, when it comes to Tamil Nadu, this time two demography will be at play, which is the
02:24age and which is the gender.
02:27Age and gender.
02:29This time, cash doesn't matter.
02:32Most important.
02:33And the X factor, as we have been talking about, is going to be definitely Vijay, the TBK.
02:40Only X factor in this election is going to be Vijay, the TBK.
02:43So, this is the Tamil Nadu.
02:45Now, coming to the Bengal.
02:47Again, in Bengal, gender has to play a very vital role, particularly when it comes to Mamatab
02:55Energy, the male and female vote differently.
02:58Even in Bengal, we have seen in the recent past, if not very far, you know, historical,
03:05this thing.
03:05Now, the second and most important thing this time is going to be important to see is whether
03:13BJP is able to dent the precedency region, fort of Mamatab Energy at the TMC, where 108
03:23seat is there in that precedency, which is a sizable number.
03:27At best, in 2019, if you see, BJP could secure the lead in 28 assembly segment versus the 21
03:37assembly election, only 14.
03:39So, 14 versus 108.
03:41This is something very interesting to see.
03:44Medhinepur and Bhargaban, BJP has done fairly good and, of course, in North Bengal.
03:49But Malda and Mursidabad, you know, the TMC and the very minority dominant area.
03:56So, I would say at this point of time, the gender, how male and female voting pattern and
04:03how presidency, which is going to vote in second phase.
04:06Okay.
04:07So, what you're saying, Vijay factor matters most in Tamil Nadu.
04:12Gender breakup and how the second phase, the presidency phase, which TMC has dominated in
04:17the past, where does that vote go?
04:20Yashwan Deshmukh, what's your takeaway from these high record voter turnouts?
04:26Could that suggest change?
04:27Pradeep Gupta says there is no such formula left anymore.
04:31What is that key X factor, according to you, that will be decisive?
04:37Well, Rasteep, first of all, as you said earlier, that the baseline has become lower.
04:43So, high turnout within the same universe should not become as a statistical surprise.
04:49You know, if last time 100 voters voted and 80 out of 100 voted and those numbers have
04:57come down to 90 voters in universe, then obviously the same universe, same 80 would look like a
05:0390.
05:03Having said that, I am not denying that the turnout has been higher.
05:07Let's wait for the absolute numbers to come out.
05:09But what has drawn my interest in the last two years is the female votes and female turnout.
05:15You know, arguably, it has been the female turnout in all those elections since 2024 that
05:22we have seen surprising results.
05:24It was all driven by the female turnout.
05:27And I was just looking at the numbers in Bengal and in Tamil Nadu.
05:32Both the female turnout so far that has been reported by Election Commission is more than
05:38more than the male turnout.
05:40Of course, it is not as big a gap as in case of Bihar that we had seen.
05:46But it is significant.
05:47When you look into the state-specific numbers, it is significantly higher.
05:51The female turnout is significantly higher than the male turnout.
05:55And I was also looking into the history of male and female turnout and its impact.
06:00In both these states, I have found some earringly similar trends in that way.
06:05AIA, TMK, and TMC have been a natural, you know, natural gainers.
06:16Whenever the female turnout has gone beyond the male turnout, significantly one or two points
06:23more or even more, but whenever the female turnout has gone down at par with the male turnout
06:28or male turnout has gone more, in those times, it's the DMK which has taken advantage in Tamil Nadu.
06:35And it is the BJP, say, for example, in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, when the female turnout
06:41got below and it was at par with the male turnout and BJP scores significantly in that.
06:48So, purely going from that, I would keep a keen eye on how the female turnouts are looking at it.
06:55And particularly in Tamil Nadu, where I am told that the urban turnout this time has been
07:01at par with the rural turnout, that is a very significant scope of research for me.
07:07That, okay, because that brings, of course, the, not just the women voter in play, but the youth factor,
07:13the Vijay factor in Tamil Nadu.
07:15Tamil Nadu, in that sense, has this new X factor, Vijay.
07:19Has he got a large section of the youth vote?
07:22Where have the women voted?
07:23In Jailalita's time, they used to usually go with the AIDM,
07:26that Jailalita is no longer there.
07:28How does the gender ratio work in Tamil Nadu?
07:31But there's the SIR factor also, Sanjay Kumarji.
07:34Because in 90 lakh voters of the rolls, does that make a difference?
07:39Is that part of the problem that you will have in a state like West Bengal,
07:44particularly with marginal constituencies where margins were low last time?
07:48How does SIR become an X factor, if at all?
07:53Yes, to some extent.
07:55It's because if the voters have been deleted and disproportionately of different communities,
08:02then we know how different communities vote.
08:04So it will certainly be seen as an X factor.
08:07We would certainly see as an X factor.
08:10But I would go along with what Pradeepji and Yashwanji have already mentioned.
08:15Women turnout is going to be key in West Bengal.
08:18And elections after elections, we have seen women turn out high.
08:21And not only high, women have decisively voted in favor of Trinamool Congress.
08:26So if women turn out, that's going to be a real X factor along with other factors,
08:31one which you have already mentioned,
08:33the deletion of votes in different constituencies or in different districts.
08:38You know, you're mentioning the M factor, which is Mahila.
08:41What about the Y factor, Sanjay Kumarji, which is Yuva?
08:44You know, in Tamil Nadu, when I traveled, I saw the Yuva were gravitating towards Vijay.
08:50Is Vijay potentially just a vote cutter?
08:53If these numbers hold, could he be much more than that?
08:56And could he become the big surprise of 2026?
08:59So we are talking about M and Y, Mahila and Yuva.
09:03Mahila is going to be a bigger factor in West Bengal.
09:06And Yuva could be a bigger factor in Tamil Nadu.
09:09I am not saying that Yuva will not be a factor in West Bengal.
09:12But in West Bengal, I get a sense that Yuva vote will be tilted in favor of BJP.
09:18But Yuva factor is going to be the young youth vote is going to be a big factor in Tamil
09:24Nadu.
09:25Yashbanji has already indicated that it seems urban turnout has been higher.
09:29So if urban turnout has been higher, I would suspect young voter to be turning out
09:35in slightly bigger numbers compared to the past election.
09:38And I think if we look at, if there are some trends, the young voter may have got shifted,
09:45tilted in favor of the Vijay.
09:47And he is going to play an important role.
09:50I can't say at this moment how important role he is going to play in these elections.
09:54But yes, it is an election to watch.
09:57Voting has already taken place.
09:59We will get to know on 4th of May.
10:01But I think it is an interesting elections to watch in Tamil Nadu,
10:05interesting results to watch in Tamil Nadu now.
10:08You know, I am fascinated by the Vijay factor.
10:11And Pradeep Gupta, it is interesting when I asked you initially,
10:14you said also look at the age factor.
10:1740% of Tamil Nadu's population under the age of 39.
10:20And you seem to suggest, I repeat, that that is where the Vijay vote could be coming for.
10:25Am I right?
10:26That you are saying don't look at caste in Tamil Nadu this time as we traditionally did.
10:31did look at age.
10:32If in Bengal we are looking closely at gender, in Tamil Nadu, look at the age factor.
10:39Yes, and another factor adding to this and leading to this, the age and gender both.
10:46Traditionally, AI-DMK, because of J. Jai Lalita, female always used to vote at least 3 to 4 percentage points
10:55more than the male in favor of AI-DMK.
10:57And when it comes to DMK, it is the younger generation they used to favor to DMK.
11:04So, younger generation and the female, these are the two consistencies where TVK is going to dent for sure.
11:14There is another final factor I want to look at, Yashwan, with you, which is the migrant worker.
11:19A number of migrants have gone back to Bengal to vote.
11:22Now, many believe that they fear that their names otherwise would be struck off the roll.
11:27Is that a factor?
11:28How easy is it to measure that?
11:30Migrant voters moving, going back to Bengal.
11:33Could have sophologists pick up a trend like that?
11:36And which way those voting preferences will be?
11:39Well, we did pick up that factor in Bihar for sure.
11:42I mean, it was a similar kind of situation.
11:44And there was a fact, in fact, a significant chunk of Bihar voters who stayed back just to vote in
11:52Bihar,
11:52even though there was quite a significant gap between their vacations and the polling dates, but that we have seen.
11:59But in terms of deletions as well, Rajdeep, the anomaly was that the seats where the maximum number of votes
12:06got deleted were lost by BJP.
12:08It was the seats which RJD won, AIMIM won those seats.
12:13So, deletion is equal to BJP's victory is not a straightforward equation that oversimplifying, in a very, very oversimplifying way
12:24it has been analyzed in media.
12:26Bihar results disapprove of that, number one.
12:28Number two, migrants, yes, they have gone back largely because overwhelming majority of them belong to BPL class, lower income
12:37group.
12:37And they fear that their name would be chucked off from so many welfare schemes if they do not go
12:45out and vote.
12:45So, there was a fear factor of sort of going through.
12:51So, they have gone out and they have got and voted.
12:53But in order to understand where exactly they have voted, that is something which we will be able to gather
13:00only in the post-poll analysis.
13:02But by and large, similar anger was there among the migrant voters, but they did not seem to be voting
13:08against the JDU in Bihar.
13:10But, you know, so the anger or problem with the process may or may not impact their political choice of
13:18political decisions.
13:19You know, so it's fairly complicated.
13:22I take your point.
13:24I take your point.
13:25It's far more complex.
13:2630 seconds, Sanjay Kumar.
13:27If you were a betting man, and I know you're not, do these numbers give the incumbent hope or the
13:35opposition hope?
13:36Tonight, who will sleep better looking at these numbers in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal?
13:40The incumbent or the anti-incumbent?
13:43My own sense is that I'm not looking at these numbers, but I'm looking at the past electoral results.
13:48And if I look at the past electoral results, I think it should give the incumbent a better sleep compared
13:54to the party which is challenging the incumbent.
14:00Okay, that's as precise as you can get, Sanjay Kumar.
14:03I will leave it there.
14:04We'll all wait to see what happens on the 29th.
14:06Exit polls, not too far away.
14:08And then, of course, voting day on the 4th.
14:10Yashwan Deshmukh, Pradeep Gupta, Sanjay Kumar, for joining me here on the news today.
14:14Thank you very much.
14:15Thank you very much.
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