00:00I mean, a couple of days ago, you were quoted as saying that Iran holds stronger leverage than the United
00:05States in these ongoing talks.
00:07Do correct me if I'm misquoting you. I'm quoting you in a press report.
00:11But that, I think, was before the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz began.
00:15And I'm wondering whether you think that blockade has changed anything.
00:18Well, here's the problem. And we can't, neither you nor I, can really, with any sort of authority, make a
00:25conclusive judgment about this.
00:27But whose clock is ticking slower or faster?
00:31My analysis has been that the Iranian clock is ticking slower.
00:35They've been through, their pain thresholds are much higher than the Trump administration's.
00:42Now, that said, the markets basically, the S&P hit record highs.
00:48Oil traders have clearly baked in, for reasons that mystify me, that somehow this conflict is going to end quickly
00:57and we're on the verge of a major breakthrough.
00:59So oil is now, what, below $100 a barrel?
01:02So I don't know.
01:05My assessment, given the fact that the Iranians are capable, have demonstrated, or on Iraq war, even 2020, when Iranian
01:13oil production went from 2.5 million barrels a day to 400,000, that the Iranians have methods, mechanisms.
01:19And since the regime is not terribly concerned with the security, prosperity, and well-being of the vast majority of
01:27Iranians, that the regime's capacity, the IRGC, those who are making decisions, seem to be willing to hold out for
01:35as good a deal as they possibly can get.
01:39And the Trump administration under pressure from November midterms, presumably, with gas prices hovering over $4 a barrel and likely
01:49to continue, even if the conflict came to an end today, for any number of oil-related reasons, the Trump
01:56administration would be in a hurry.
01:58But none of this seems to be accurate, because if both sides were really in a hurry, you'd have serious
02:07negotiations underway, not indirect negotiations, not negotiations on a cell phone, not negotiations conducted on the back of a cocktail
02:17napkin.
02:18You'd have serious negotiations between teams on both sides that were ready, willing, and able to make a deal.
02:25I have not seen that.
02:28I have not seen that.
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