- 33 minutes ago
After recent strikes, Iran accuses the US of breaching a fragile ceasefire but still signals an openness for talks. In Washington, President Donald Trump may be losing support within his party over the war.
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00:01Just when a peace agreement seemed within reach, the US has launched strikes on targets in southern Iran.
00:08Now, this shows where they happened on Monday. You can see the exact locations marked on the map.
00:14The US says it hit missile launch sites and boats that were attempting to lay mines in the Strait of
00:21Hormuz.
00:23Tehran says the US broke their ceasefire. Washington says it was self-defence. So what's going on here?
00:29From Iran's perspective is that its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz is by far, by far its most
00:35important source of leverage.
00:37But hypothetically, to add a few additional naval mines in the Gulf at locations that it controls, where it knows
00:42where it is, does provide it with additional leverage in the sense that the demining of the Persian Gulf, of
00:48the Strait of Hormuz, will be complicated for the US.
00:50It will be costly. It will increase in security in the Gulf. And that de facto increases Iran's leverage even
00:57more in the forthcoming negotiations.
00:59That's Middle East security expert Thomas Jeannot. That leverage he's talking about, well, it's a theme that carries through both
01:07my conversation with him and my chat first up with DW's Washington Bureau Chief, Innes Paul.
01:13Iran, for its part, reacted sharply to the fresh US strikes by saying this.
01:19The United States committed a gross violation of the ceasefire in the Hormuz gun region, that's the region bordering the
01:26Strait of Hormuz, in the last 48 hours.
01:29Iran holds the US regime responsible for all the consequences resulting from these aggressive and unjustified actions.
01:38We can speak now to DW's Washington Bureau Chief, Innes Paul. Hi there, Innes. Talk to us through the reactions
01:45to these strikes that you're seeing in Washington.
01:50So, Jared, the reaction here in Washington is really increasingly mixed.
01:54You know, the White House is still, of course, presenting the strikes as necessary and limited.
01:59But criticism is definitely growing, including actually also among Republicans and parts of the MAGA movement.
02:06And many conservatives, Jared, who supported Trump initially because he promised strength without another long Middle East war, are turning
02:17the backs towards him.
02:18You know, there is a growing concern that this conflict could spiral and damage the economy at home for a
02:26long time.
02:26And as we all know, and this is not only happening in the United States, gas prices are already rising.
02:32The summer travel season has just started. Airline prices are climbing.
02:36And many Americans are really extremely sensitive to cost of living issues right now.
02:42So there is a growing pressure in Congress also because several senators from both parties are again raising questions about
02:50presidential war powers
02:52and whether Trump really needs broader congressional approval if this conflict escalates further.
02:59Yeah, right. Innes, on the weekend, Donald Trump did say that a deal with Iran was in reach.
03:06So what does this mean now for those negotiations?
03:12Yeah, I mean, the only thing what is predictable with Donald Trump is really his unpredictability.
03:19You know, on the one hand, he said it's we it will be soon over.
03:23We are very close to a deal. And then, of course, he started bombardings again.
03:28It will make negotiations much more complicated and also, honestly, politically quite awkward for the White House.
03:36You know, as Trump, we just talked about it, just suggested diplomacy was working and the deal was close.
03:42And now the renewed strikes create the impression that either negotiations were far less advanced than publicly presented or that
03:51events even kind of happening behind closed doors.
03:55So many analysts here believe Iran now feels it has leverage over the United States.
04:01The Trump administration repeatedly signals that it wants to avoid a broader war while Tehran continues, of course, projecting defiance.
04:09So the risk for Washington is appearing eager for a deal at almost any price.
04:16That's a big concern here in the United States.
04:19And critics say that weakens the U.S. negotiations position considerably.
04:26Innes, you were just talking us through a bit earlier about these domestic political pressures on Donald Trump.
04:34Tell us, what is the general mood in the U.S. towards the war in Iran?
04:40You know, honestly, it's it's increasingly uneasy, if not exhausted.
04:46You know, after years, we have to keep that in mind after years of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
04:51So many Americans simply do not want another open ended conflict in the Middle East.
04:58And that actually was a promise Donald Trump made when he was running for president.
05:04This feeling, of course, also exists among Democrats, independents and many Trump voters as well.
05:11There, of course, is still some support for responding to attacks and protecting U.S. interests.
05:17But there's far less appetite for a prolonged military confrontation.
05:23And politically, Trump now faces a difficult balancing act, if you wish, kind of projecting strength abroad,
05:31while also convincing Americans at home that this will not become just another costly and endless war in Iran.
05:40Thanks a lot for that, Ines.
05:42That's our Washington Bureau Chief, Ines Paul, there.
05:47Professor Tomar Junot is an expert in Middle East security and intelligence
05:52at the University of Ottawa's Graduate School of Public and International Affairs in Canada.
05:57Welcome to you.
05:58Now, Tomar, I'm just going to bring up the map again, showing where the U.S. struck southern Iran,
06:05the U.S. saying it hit launch sites and boats that were attempting to lay mines in the Strait of
06:11Hormuz.
06:12Why would the U.S. be doing this at a time when it's trying to negotiate a deal with Iran
06:19that it says is within reach?
06:22It's difficult to know exactly what is going on, especially because there's a lot of confusion or uncertainty
06:27regarding exactly what happened on Monday.
06:29But the possibility that Iran would indeed have been trying to lay maritime mines or naval mines
06:35in some parts of the Persian Gulf is possible.
06:38The Islamic Republic has done that in the past, and it has been very clearly part of its strategy.
06:43So if it is true that it was doing that, then it is to be expected that realistically,
06:48given how volatile the situation is right now, given how unsettled it is,
06:52that the U.S. would strike it to send the message,
06:54we see you, we know what you're doing, and we will not tolerate that.
06:58So is that exactly what happened?
07:00I'm not sure at this point, but it is plausible to me.
07:03You're saying that this is part of Iran's strategy.
07:07If we reverse that question, why would it be doing that at a time when it's trying to reach a
07:12deal with the U.S.?
07:14Well, I think Iran is trying to reach a deal with the U.S., but at the same time,
07:19one of the main lessons of this war since February 28th, when the U.S. and Israel launched it,
07:24from Iran's perspective, is that its ability to close the Strait of Hormuz is by far,
07:29by far its most important source of leverage.
07:31It has been able to do that through multiple means, attacking ships with missiles and drones in particular,
07:36but also with naval mines.
07:38So from Iran's perspective, hypothetically, keeping in mind that we're not sure exactly what happened on Monday,
07:43but hypothetically, to add a few additional naval mines in the Gulf at locations that it controls,
07:48where it knows where it is, does provide it with additional leverage in the sense that
07:52the demining of the Persian Gulf, of the Strait of Hormuz, will be complicated for the U.S.
07:57It will be costly, it will increase in security in the Gulf, and that, de facto,
08:02increases Iran's leverage even more in the forthcoming negotiations.
08:06I want to talk a little bit more about that leverage a bit later, but our previous guest,
08:11Innes Paul, was talking basically about how sensitive Americans are to the cost of living
08:16pressures right now and how sick they are of fighting open-ended wars.
08:21On top of that, midterm elections are coming up too in the U.S.
08:25How much do you think all this is pressuring Donald Trump to try and achieve something
08:29that he can sell as a success?
08:33Well, you know, in the early phases of the war, in the month of March, in the first few weeks,
08:37I and a number of other watchers of this war, we were all making the assumption that President
08:42Trump would much prefer a shorter war, so measured in days, perhaps weeks, specifically
08:47for the reasons you mentioned.
08:48The war, the longer it would go, would cause oil prices to rise, that would feed or fuel
08:53inflation in the U.S. that would fuel already high economic discontent in the U.S. because
08:58of the cost of living.
08:59It would also cause divisions within the Republican Party, where the MAGA pro-Trump coalition has
09:04a significant faction that is very isolationist.
09:07So the assumption was this would pressure Trump to put an end to the war sooner rather than
09:12later.
09:13But that assumption turns out to have been mostly wrong in the sense that the war has gone
09:17on now for almost three months, even if now we are in a very fragile ceasefire.
09:22The reality is that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed.
09:25So what this tells me is that President Trump is actually much more insensitive to domestic
09:32political pressures related to the economy, related to the isolationist wing of the MAGA
09:36coalition than we had assumed.
09:38The midterm elections are less than six months away now, about five and a half months, and
09:42yet President Trump seems impervious to these domestic political pressures.
09:47So at some point, I do think that they will matter more and more to him, but a lot less
09:51than we had initially assumed.
09:53Let's talk about the potential deal itself and what is known about it.
10:01What do you make of that, given, I guess, the animosity that exists between both sides
10:08and potentially even more now, given that these fresh strikes have happened?
10:14With the caveat that at this point, we are speculating because we see a number of leaks
10:18in the media coming from the American side, coming from the Iranian side, but also coming
10:22apparently from some of the countries involved in the mediation of these talks, Pakistan in
10:27particular, Qatar increasingly in the last few days.
10:29So we don't know exactly what is going to happen.
10:31What is the content of what is being discussed?
10:34What does seem to me, if I look at the broad contour of what seems to be emerging, is that
10:40this deal is very limited in its scope.
10:43It is mostly a prolonged ceasefire with the two sides agreeing to really stop shooting, at
10:49least for now.
10:50The only major outcome in this emerging deal beyond the prolonged ceasefire is an understanding
10:57to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
10:58Even that is very incomplete because the opening is going to be partial and it's going to be
11:02measured in months, not in days or even weeks.
11:05And then all of the other much more difficult issues between the two countries, the nuclear
11:10program, the missile program, the lifting of sanctions, will mostly, maybe completely,
11:15but at least mostly, be punted down the road for future talks that will come later.
11:22So in that sense, it is going to be, if it happens, a very incomplete deal.
11:27So it's a deal essentially to come to an agreement on, I guess, the Strait of Hormuz, but a
11:32deal to have talks.
11:35Exactly.
11:36That's a good way of phrasing it.
11:37It's a deal to start negotiating a deal farther down the road.
11:41Given the animosity between the two sides, given the intransigence on the two sides, given the
11:46very clear lack of willingness to compromise on the two sides, realistically, at this point,
11:52that is very much the best that we can hope for.
11:55And what happens if these talks happen and the issues aren't resolved?
12:01As you were saying, Iran knows it can just block the Strait of Hormuz again.
12:07I think there is a very real scenario where there is no deal, even a limited deal of the
12:12type that we just discussed.
12:14In that case, basically, what we would see is a de facto continuation of the status quo
12:20that we are in now, which is a very fragile, volatile equilibrium of no war, no peace.
12:28And not just no war, no peace, but no war, no peace talks.
12:31That equilibrium is premised on what I think is the clear willingness of the two sides to
12:36avoid a return to war.
12:37I think on the American side, for reasons we discussed a few minutes ago, President Trump
12:41would much prefer not going back to war.
12:43And on the Iranian side, I think they would also prefer not to go back to war, because
12:47this war has been very, very costly for the Iranians.
12:50But as much as they would prefer not to go back to war, the two sides are clearly unwilling
12:54to compromise.
12:55So, you know, is it 50-50?
12:58I'm not sure.
12:58It's difficult to quantify, but there is a possibility of a limited deal.
13:02But there's also a clear possibility of no deal at all, in which case we basically muddle
13:07along.
13:08You're talking about compromise here.
13:11And I guess one of the major bones of contention, of course, is the issue of nuclear.
13:17There does seem to be some vagueness, though, around if Iran gives up pursuing nuclear weapons
13:23and its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
13:26What do you make of that?
13:29It's difficult to say, because the information that has been leaking on the ongoing talks has
13:34been a bit contradictory on some aspects.
13:36In some leaks, we get the impression that the nuclear issue would be completely pushed
13:43farther down the road.
13:44In other interpretations in the media, there are some contours that would already be agreed
13:49upon in this transitory deal.
13:51Even if it's the latter case, it would be very superficial and it would be very partial.
13:56You know, the nuclear deal has been a bone of contention between the U.S. and Iran for
14:00decades.
14:01It's not a new issue and it's an extraordinarily complicated one.
14:05When there was a first nuclear deal in 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA,
14:10negotiated under President Obama, it took almost two years of negotiations, extremely complicated
14:15negotiations, where multiple details on the number of centrifuges, the level of enrichment,
14:21which facility in Iran is dismantled fully or partly in exchange for which sanctions are lifted partially or completely over
14:29what
14:29time frame and the list goes on.
14:31So I have absolutely no expectation that in the short or even the midterm, there can be
14:36any kind of agreement at that level.
14:37If the two sides can at least agree to start a more complicated process of talks, at this
14:43point, again, that's the best we can hope for.
14:45But how much can Iran really give ground on when it comes to nuclear missiles, given how
14:53fundamental it sees this, I guess, as part of its long-term survival?
15:00That's an extremely important question.
15:02And the simple answer is that we don't have the answer to that question yet.
15:05My assumption is that now and for the coming weeks and months and maybe years, there is going
15:10to be a very difficult debate at the top of the Iranian system, the political system, to
15:14answer that question.
15:15And I'm not sure that there's an answer yet.
15:17In the past, the Islamic Republic was willing to make some concessions, not absolute concessions,
15:22but some concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for concessions from the U.S., primarily
15:27the lifting of sanctions.
15:29It is quite possible, not guaranteed, but possible that that will again be the calculus of the
15:34Islamic Republic.
15:35We will roll back some aspects of the nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.
15:40It is also possible, however, and this is where the debate in the Islamic Republic will
15:44be decisive in the coming months, that the Islamic Republic could completely change its
15:48calculus and say, look, in the past, we decided not to build a nuclear weapon, right?
15:53That's a key point to make.
15:54Today, as we speak, the Islamic Republic does not have a nuclear weapon.
15:58But it could say we did not have a nuclear weapon and we were attacked by the U.S. and
16:02Israel.
16:02The only real way not to be attacked again in the future is to sprint to a nuclear weapon,
16:08come what may, whatever the price of that will be.
16:10I tend to view that scenario as less likely, but I would absolutely not put it at zero percent.
16:17Let's stay on Iran.
16:20And of course, we were talking a bit earlier about these domestic pressures in the United
16:24States.
16:24But what about what the people of Iran think about all this?
16:29We can also add to that, that the Internet has been partially restored today and there
16:34were also pro-regime protests as well that have happened in the last few hours.
16:41What's going on there?
16:42What are the people of Iran themselves make of all of this?
16:47This is a very good question.
16:49I'm happy you ask it because especially in recent weeks and months with all of the conversations,
16:53the analysis on the geopolitical dimension of the war, the nuclear crisis, the ongoing
16:58negotiations, all of that is obviously extremely important.
17:02But we do forget that the primary victims in all of this are the Iranian people who not
17:06only have suffered tremendously in the last two and a half months of war, but over decades
17:10under this very repressive and brutal and corrupt government.
17:15If we go back only five and a half months ago, this seems like a lifetime ago and a lot
17:19of
17:20us have forgotten about that, but in December of 2025 and January of 2026, there was a large
17:25wave of protests in Iran that was repressed by the government only with the tremendous
17:31use of brutality.
17:33At least thousands of Iranians died, perhaps even tens of thousands.
17:36We just don't know how many.
17:37That massive pool of resentment against the Islamic Republic is still there.
17:41It has not disappeared.
17:43Of course, people are not going to go and protest against the regime during the war or right
17:47after the war.
17:48But as the dust on this war settles, exactly when, exactly how, I don't know.
17:53But as it settles, it is, to my mind, a matter of when, not if, protests start escalating inside
17:59Iran on Iranian streets again.
18:01It could be later this year.
18:03It could be next year.
18:04Nobody is able to predict that.
18:05But the massive pool of resentment against the regime is still there.
18:09It has not gone away.
18:10And where I think there is good reason to be especially fearful and concerned is that
18:15the Islamic Republic, as it is now reconfigured after the war, is even more brutal.
18:20It is even more repressive than it was in the past.
18:22It is even more hard-lined.
18:23So my assumption, and this is a tragic assumption, but I think it's the correct one, that when
18:28these protesters start going back to the streets, they will be met with tremendous violence.
18:34Very sobering way to end the interview.
18:36But we really appreciate your insights today.
18:38Thank you so much, Professor Thomas-Jeanot from the University of Ottawa's Graduate School
18:42of Public and International Affairs.
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