00:00And Tehran is blaming the U.S. naval blockade for violating the ceasefire.
00:05So do you think that the U.S. actually collapsed its own diplomatic track with that move?
00:11Well, I suppose it depends really on what the objectives were for the United States.
00:14If the objective is to, you know, kind of extract tactical concessions to, you know, beat the chests,
00:24you know, kind of beat the war drums and sort of, you know, get Iran to capitulate on certain
00:30specific things, then, you know, perhaps that strategy makes sense on its own terms.
00:34But if the idea, the long term goal is to actually come to some sort of comprehensive agreement with
00:39Iran that the United States and the Trump administration can can tout as being superior
00:44to anything that was done by President Obama or President Biden, then, you know, that actually
00:48these things are counterproductive.
00:49And the U.S. does risk overplaying its hand and actually collapsing the negotiations completely.
00:55And, John, Donald Trump has also threatened, if these ceasefire talks don't materialize
01:01into anything, to knock out Iran's power plants and bridges.
01:05So what impact could these threats actually have on perceptions of the U.S.'s negotiation intent?
01:12Yeah, I mean, again, historically for Iran, these push Iran into a very easy and obvious position,
01:17which is to simply cross its arms and refuse to budge, at least rhetorically.
01:23These kinds of statements play into the hands of hardliners in Iran.
01:26And we know that there are real divisions within the Iranian political establishment,
01:29not to even mention the Iranian public, about the wisdom of pursuing talks or about, you know,
01:35being, you know, diplomatically flexible with the United States.
01:39And every time Donald Trump makes statements like this, it simply plays into the hands of those
01:43forces in Iran that say, you know, the hell with the United States.
01:46We don't need to speak to them.
01:47We'll fight them on the battlefield.
01:49And, you know, Iran does feel that the longer this drags on and it manages to survive, then,
01:55you know, it is, you know, basically playing the game on its terrain.
02:00You know, Iran doesn't need to win this war to win this war.
02:02And it's known that for quite some time.
02:04So, John, who do you think is hurting more now, Iran or the U.S.?
02:08I mean, they're both hurting.
02:10They both clearly want an end to the conflict.
02:12But I think what Iran has done is to master the art of kind of asymmetrical warfare, at
02:18least in the short term.
02:19I mean, of course, the United States has more tricks up its sleeve.
02:23But the question is, is it actually willing to play those tricks?
02:27I mean, is the United States actually going to, you know, bomb Iran back to the Stone Age?
02:32I mean, we don't know.
02:33Perhaps it is willing to do that.
02:35But, you know, anything that involves certainly boots on the ground and land invasions and
02:40so on is probably unlikely from an American political perspective, as well as a military
02:44perspective, which all of which tends to play into Iran's hands.
02:49But, of course, historically, Iran has also been known to overplay its hands classically
02:53in the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s.
02:56Iran could have ended that war in 1982 and played the victim and very legitimately said,
03:01look, we were invaded by Saddam Hussein and we managed to hold the line and now we need
03:05reparations and so on, but we're willing to bring this war to a close.
03:09And it didn't do that.
03:10And the war dragged on for six more years.
03:12So has Iran learned from its own history as well?
03:15Are they going to overplay their hand?
03:16Those are all open questions.
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