00:00The regional radar showing a lot of lightning here east of Oklahoma City, south of Tulsa, south of Grand Lake
00:05areas,
00:06not far from Fort Smith, Arkansas, seeing some thunderstorms, a lot of lightning there approaching Fort Smith along Interstate 40
00:13in the easternmost 20 miles or so of Oklahoma, a stormy spot on the map.
00:18Numerous thunderstorms here into parts of Central and East Texas, Austin, San Antonio, New Braunfels, San Marcos,
00:25seeing some downpours here and there. And when we look at the tornado tally, tornado reports by state,
00:30Illinois and Mississippi, followed by Louisiana, then Oklahoma and then Alabama,
00:36the top five tornado report states so far this year. It's early, though.
00:42We're getting into the early to mid part of the tornado season over the next few weeks.
00:46So if this were the tornado season and baseball game, probably the bottom of the second, top of the third
00:50inning,
00:51we have a long ways to go. As we look at the overall severe risk zone for this evening,
00:55and tonight we're seeing more storms now pop over the panhandle of Texas and especially eastern New Mexico,
01:00areas near Clovis and even up into the area near the Raton Mesa, east of Raton and Trinidad,
01:08southeast of Trinidad, Colorado. Then all the way east through southern parts of Kansas,
01:12areas like Chanute or maybe areas like Independence, Bartlesville, Oklahoma, Tulsa, Miami,
01:18Springfield, Joplin, and into areas like Bentonville, Arkansas.
01:20Some of those areas at risk of some severe weather, damaging wind, hail, and flooding downpours,
01:25concerns on a localized scale. Avirillo's on the list, though. We're going to see more of a threat there later
01:30on this evening and tonight.
01:32So Saturday, strong and severe storms west of I-35 for the most part.
01:37Large hail, strong winds, a main concern there.
01:39Let's go to Dallas, Texas, though, because I want to look ahead at how we will be seeing storms roll
01:45into this area eventually into the day on Sunday,
01:49pushing a little east. We may see some near Dallas late Saturday. Better chance on Sunday.
01:53So future radar and clouds. Here we are Saturday. Most of the action again west of Interstate 35,
01:58Austin to Dallas, Oklahoma City, up to Kansas City and Des Moines.
02:01Most of the severe weather is going to be west of that area. Some spotty storms a little farther east
02:06and a little cooler in the northeast, by the way. We look good there at Augusta for the Masters.
02:12Round three and four, very warm and dry. In fact, I could just plot that as a big H.
02:18It's going to be very warm and high pressure, keeping us bone dry there in Augusta while storms fire.
02:23And on Sunday evening, some scattered, strong thunderstorms will be popping in a stripe here,
02:28mainly west of Chicago for the severe risk, though there will be some showers and storms there.
02:32Look at what's going on in the west. We've got snow and rain in the interior west.
02:36So overall, Sunday through Sunday night, scattered, strong storms in a pretty large area from Dallas
02:41all the way up to Duluth, of all places. By the way, we have three feet of snow on the
02:46ground in Marquette, Michigan.
02:48So there will be some risk of flooding there as some rounds of rain will be moving through that area.
02:53But three feet of snow on the ground still in Marquette. They had about a 90-inch surplus this winter.
02:58They typically get about 186 inches of snow. They got 270 or so. Really impressive.
03:05But south of there, storms on a repetitive basis in the plains into the Great Lakes region.
03:10And we're going to stay warm in the southeast through the next several days.
03:15Really heating up in a big way for the east into next week.
03:18So a quick look at Monday. Storms on the map. Dallas to Rochester, Chicago.
03:21And we'll be watching as the California storm, the bigger of the two, that rolls into the plains.
03:27And once that reaches the plains, emerging across the mountains here, here we've got the Rockies.
03:32Once it reaches the plains there, that area of spin in the atmosphere on Tuesday is going to scare up
03:36some stronger thunderstorms.
03:37Some of these will be severe in some cases here.
03:41From Oklahoma City all the way up to Des Moines, Iowa, and into the Quad Cities on Tuesday evening.
03:46This is our greatest risk area, probably for the next week.
03:48Tuesday is the day that we're most concerned about.
03:50One city that we're concerned about is Tulsa, Oklahoma.
03:54So here we go through Tuesday evening.
03:55As that disturbance enters the plains, some of these storms will be severe with damaging wind, hail, and a tornado
04:00threat within that area.
04:02Then Wednesday, this slides farther east and lifts up into Chicago with a severe risk as well.
04:07So here we go.
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