00:00All right, we've had a break from severe weather this week, but on the feed we're going to talk about
00:04the return to severe weather.
00:05But I don't see any widespread severe weather outbreaks here over the next three to four days.
00:12We may have to worry about the middle part of the week.
00:14Now, there's going to be some severe weather, but I just don't think it's going to be widespread.
00:18Let me show you what it's going to look like here over the next few days.
00:22We begin on Thursday. There it is across the Plains states.
00:25Mostly wind and hail with this one. Wind and hail.
00:28Wind and hail. Thursday, Friday, Saturday, any tornadoes are going to be isolated.
00:32And the severe weather threats continue even beyond this time period.
00:36Take a look. Here's what we have for you on Sunday.
00:39I should say, yeah, on Sunday. Again, an elongated area.
00:43But as you're going to see, there's not a lot of energy with this right now.
00:48There's enough warmth and enough humidity, but not a lot of energy for widespread severe weather.
00:53And even as we head into Monday, same story. It's an elongated area.
00:58From the Midwest toward Texas, can there be isolated severe weather, including tornadoes?
01:02Yes, but nothing widespread.
01:05Now, we're going to keep an eye on Tuesday.
01:07As we get in the middle part of next week, and I'll show you why.
01:10Now, here's where the energy is coming. It's off the West Coast.
01:14This is what's going to produce the severe weather here over the weekend, this upper low.
01:18But as you're going to see, it's going to weaken.
01:20Now, middle part of next week, we have energy in the Gulf of Alaska.
01:24That's going to come southeast.
01:26Our first system in the Plains, this has more energy with it than our storm off the West Coast.
01:33It just doesn't have a lot of unstable air associated with it.
01:38Let me show you what I mean.
01:39Let's go to the modeling here, and I'm going to show you the tools that I use
01:43as we try to predict this severe weather here over the next couple of days.
01:47So, let's talk about this system coming in down across the Canadian prairies.
01:52Here it comes as we head into Thursday and Friday.
01:54A lot of energy with this.
01:55See how that swings through?
01:57And there's a frontal boundary.
01:59And even this, this is always a little concerning to me.
02:01Thursday night, Friday morning, you see this little low pressure system here?
02:05We call it a triple point low because you have a cold front.
02:08You have a warm front here, cold front here, storm here, cold front.
02:13We call this a triple point low, and oftentimes, you can get tornadoes with these
02:18if you have a right amount of air.
02:20You see how you have that low pressure system going across Illinois?
02:23But as I take a look, a closer look at this, while we look at the low-level jet for
02:27energy,
02:28and look, you have a pretty strong low-level jet here showing you you have energy in the atmosphere.
02:32You see this?
02:33As we get in the late Thursday night, Friday morning, what you are lacking is moisture.
02:40And dew point temperature is only in the, you see this dew point temperature, middle 50s?
02:44Now, if you had 65 or 70 degree dew points coming in here, I'd be a little more worried.
02:49But I think you have the energy, but you don't have the moisture.
02:52So that's why I'm not too worried about this area as we get in the Friday.
02:56But as mentioned, we're also tracking that system off the West Coast.
03:02And little pieces start coming out.
03:04Here's one on Thursday and Friday.
03:06You see that?
03:07Not a lot of energy, not a lot of energy, but we do have thunderstorms posted on Thursday and Friday.
03:14And let me show you why I'm not too worried.
03:16While you certainly have Thursday and Friday, you've got plenty of moisture coming in and out of the Gulf.
03:21Look at it, certainly by Friday.
03:22You've got all this energy coming out of the Gulf of Mexico, a lot of this moisture.
03:28There's just not a lot of energy associated with this.
03:30You go back to the 500 millibar here, what do you have Thursday and Friday?
03:35Not much.
03:36Little pieces, but not a lot.
03:40Another way to look at it is the low-level jet Thursday and Friday.
03:43You see, you've got the low-level jet up here showing you a lot of wind energy, but not much
03:48in Texas.
03:49And even on Saturday, where's a lot of the energy?
03:52Up here.
03:54Up here across the Plains states.
03:57That's why we have some risk up there.
03:59But when you look at, well, okay, do you have the energy?
04:02Do you have the moisture up there on Friday?
04:04Look at our dew point temperatures up on Friday.
04:08Not really.
04:09See, you've got the energy Friday and Saturday.
04:12There it is, Saturday night.
04:13All the energy across the Plains, but all the moisture is down in Texas.
04:19So, where you have the energy, you don't have the moisture.
04:21And where you have the moisture, you don't have the energy.
04:24Nothing is coming together as we get in the Saturday and even Sunday.
04:29And if I go back to this, you'll notice that our severe weather threat on Sunday, that's why we only
04:35have a some risk.
04:37You see that?
04:40Because not all of the ingredients are coming together.
04:44Now, take a look.
04:45There's Monday.
04:46All right.
04:47There's what we have on Monday.
04:48Again, it's a some risk.
04:50Why don't we have a moderate?
04:51Well, let's take a look at it.
04:52What do we have going on on Monday with energy?
04:54You do have some.
04:56You do have some.
04:57But what's happening is this upper low off the California coast is going to weaken.
05:02Watch me play it forward.
05:04Friday, you see how it weakens?
05:05Because that other piece of energy in the Gulf of Alaska follows it.
05:08So, what happens is it comes out in pieces.
05:11So, instead of getting one big day of severe weather, you just get pieces of severe weather.
05:17That's it.
05:17Look at Monday.
05:18There's that piece of energy.
05:19You can see models showing showers and thunderstorms in here.
05:23But when you take a look at the energy and dew points.
05:27So, Monday, you've got plenty of moisture.
05:29Look at our dew point temperatures in the 60s in here.
05:32You see?
05:33But when you look at the wind energy, there's just not a lot.
05:37There's just not a lot.
05:42Now, one thing I think you do have to worry about is this next piece coming in across the Gulf
05:46of Alaska.
05:47There it is.
05:47See this in here?
05:49This is the one to keep an eye on.
05:51Because as we go forward, watch it come across the country.
05:54And you start talking Tuesday and Wednesday.
05:57This is where I start getting worried as we get into Wednesday.
06:02Tuesday, we still, Tuesday, let me go back to this.
06:07Tuesday, we still only have some risk.
06:10Once again, no moderate.
06:11Why?
06:11Well, when you look at the ingredients here, you have some energy coming out here across the Midwest.
06:20But, again, as you look at the low-level jet, it's weakening during the day on Tuesday.
06:25You have the moisture, but the energy is weakening.
06:27But, here's the time to watch.
06:29Wednesday into Thursday.
06:31You see this?
06:32All of a sudden, you have that energy coming out.
06:35Look at the increasing low-level jet across Indiana, Tennessee.
06:39And you have higher dew point air.
06:42That's the time frame to watch for more severe weather than what we're going to see over the next couple
06:47of days.
06:48Middle part of next week, and that's the feed.
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