00:00We've seen some major flooding in parts of Indiana and Ohio, significant river flooding.
00:06Parts of West Virginia have seen even more flash flooding again this Monday,
00:10and we are just locked into a really stormy pattern.
00:13But there's going to be a brief break before the showers and storms return.
00:17We're looking forward to Tuesday in the Ohio Valley,
00:20one day of kind of a break here before we get back into it.
00:23Here's a look at the percent of normal rainfall over the past 30 days,
00:27and we are really deep up here into the dark green in many areas here in places like Illinois, Indiana,
00:35and Ohio,
00:36with a huge surplus here, many of us over twice the typical amount of rainfall that you would expect this
00:43time of the year,
00:44just for the 30-day window from around mid-July to mid-August.
00:48Way too much rain.
00:49And, you know, this weekend, even though the worst of the flash flood potential was late last week,
00:55really the middle of last week, Wednesday, when we got hit really hard in Indiana.
01:00It has not been a dry spell this weekend from the early evening hours on Saturday through Sunday into Monday.
01:07We've seen some heavy rain yet again in parts of the Ohio Valley and West Virginia, Ohio, north-central Kentucky,
01:14and a lot of areas seeing three, four inches in localized spots here.
01:18When you get up into the yellows here, you're looking at areas with locally three, four-plus inches of rain.
01:26Now, we're still dealing with some very saturated ground out there.
01:29I wanted to show you this product here before we look at some forecasts.
01:32This is soil moisture, and we can look at this in a few different contexts here.
01:37We're near the surface from the very surface of the soil to just 10 centimeters down, which is pretty high
01:42up.
01:43Just the very top layer of soil, there's been a big increase.
01:48And as we start this here, you can see lots of deep green where we are very soggy out there.
01:55And right now, with ongoing rain in parts of West Virginia, we're seeing a pretty good signal of that.
02:00Let's go down a little bit from the surface to 10 centimeters down to between 10 and 40 centimeters down.
02:08Now, we're a few inches down below the surface.
02:10Similar storyline here.
02:13Again, if you dig down with a shovel, and even if you go 40 to 100 centimeters down, there is
02:20some very waterlogged ground.
02:22This has been filtering down and percolating down through the mid-levels of soil and subsoil down into very, very
02:30saturated areas.
02:31Most of West Virginia, eastern Ohio, central Ohio, and right across central Indiana, it is really, really soggy soil out
02:39there.
02:40And it's not just the soil, but also the rivers are running high.
02:43So, last week, we talked a lot about the White River.
02:46Here we are with the Wabash River in western Indiana, in Montezuma, Indiana, near that reference point.
02:53So, it's not far from the Illinois line.
02:55And you can see we're actually rising here, moderate flooding in progress.
02:59We're not expecting many areas to step newly into major flooding.
03:03But we're going to hold into a situation with a lot of moderate flooding on some slow-moving rivers.
03:09The Wabash River separates southwest Indiana from southeast Illinois, and it dumps into the Ohio River.
03:16Ultimately, the feeding into the Mississippi River.
03:18And this area, again, it's pretty flat real estate.
03:21So, unlike what you might see in Colorado or in parts of the mountains of West Virginia where you get
03:27rapid responses,
03:28this is just like a pool that rises and slowly falls.
03:32And here we're going to see a crest around 25.9 feet Tuesday morning here.
03:38And it may not be a specific hour.
03:41It might be five or six hours, maybe ten hours, where we're hanging out near 25.9 feet.
03:47And it may be about 24 hours before we even see it drop an inch from its official crest on
03:52Tuesday.
03:52So, just beware of that.
03:55That's an ongoing concern, some of the river flooding.
03:58Now, what are we looking at for a break?
04:00This is good news in the short term, but not so good news long term.
04:04Tuesday, we do have a strong ridge of high pressure that will be right over the Ohio River.
04:09And that's going to prevent us from seeing any rain on Tuesday.
04:13So, we get a break for Tuesday in many areas.
04:16And I can kind of circle areas that are unlikely to see even a drop of rain here for Tuesday.
04:23That's the GFS.
04:24Let's go to the NAM.
04:26Similarly dry in that same big bubble.
04:29Again, even though it's not explicitly plotted here, you got high pressure there in the NAM.
04:34And there's good agreement here.
04:35Here's the European model with also a dry forecast for Tuesday.
04:39But not far off, not far off, you can see our next return of some rain.
04:44Here's a cold front that's going to be zipping back into the Midwest on Tuesday afternoon and evening.
04:50And that's going to be bringing the return of some rain for Wednesday and Thursday.
04:55In fact, there's a second ripple of energy that follows along that front that's going to scare up some locally
05:01heavy rain.
05:01This is not what we want to see here.
05:04A soaking zone of rain in Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky again on Thursday.
05:08And then that moves into Thursday evening into the mid-Atlantic states.
05:12But soggy weather returns, drenching downpours.
05:15Now here's the NAM.
05:17And that is a little shyer.
05:19I like the NAM solution.
05:20If this were to happen, it would be a good news, a good bit of news here for us.
05:24Because it would actually sink the front a little farther south.
05:28So look at the difference here.
05:29Here's the GFS, rain in southern Ohio and West Virginia.
05:33Here's the NAM at the same time.
05:34It brings rain to southern West Virginia, but not to Ohio.
05:37And then the European is kind of splitting the difference.
05:40And it's a little more timid with the amounts of rain, but it does light up eastern Virginia.
05:45So let's go a little bit upstairs here and see the comparison, why the modeling changes things here or differentiates.
05:52Here is the GFS, which brings a pretty robust shortwave right through Cincinnati.
05:58At the same time, here is the NAM.
06:00And it fragments things.
06:02And it has a slightly stronger shortwave all the way down in Tennessee.
06:08All the way down in Tennessee here.
06:10That would be kind of fracturing the lift of the atmosphere and driving a little bit more of that action
06:15farther south.
06:15That would be kind of a good solution.
06:17Now, the European is a little more muted with the intensity of this shortwave, but it is farther north.
06:23So that kind of splits the difference.
06:25Overall, if we look at the late week rainfall, subtracting out any of the early week, this is just a
06:2848-hour bin from Wednesday to Friday.
06:31There's potential for two inches of rain there in the area of West Virginia with the GFS.
06:36And the Europeans a little more timid, more areas than a half inch to an inch, though it would be
06:40heavier into parts of Kentucky.
06:43So that is your forecast feed for now.
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