00:00I feel as though the language that's been coming out out of various Israeli officials the last couple of days
00:05has most definitely hardened.
00:07And they seem to be implying that the scope of the what they call a security zone, what Lebanese would
00:13describe as an occupation zone, seems to be expanding and shifting even more north.
00:18So walk us through the latest.
00:21Romain, I think you're right. You may also be experiencing some historical deja vu.
00:24It's been over a quarter century since Israel ended its previous occupation of southern Lebanon back in the year 2000.
00:33You recall that was seen by many as an opportunity for Israel and Lebanon to establish finally peaceful relations, neighborly
00:40relations.
00:41That didn't happen.
00:42What happened was that Hezbollah, the cat's paw of Iran in the region, built up its military capabilities, including in
00:49southern Lebanon, with fighters and rockets, sometimes within touching distance of Israelis.
00:56Keep in mind that the proximity there between houses is very remarkable, certainly by Western standards.
01:02There's areas of the border where Lebanese and Israelis can literally peer each into the other's rear yards, backyards or
01:10front yards, depending which way their houses are facing.
01:13What's happened now is Israel, in the wake of the October 7th attacks in the year 2023, which set off
01:19an ongoing regional war, now with a crescendo in Iran, have changed tack completely.
01:25They're no longer willing to tolerate threats on any of their borders.
01:30We've seen that in Gaza, we've seen it in Syria, and now we're seeing it in southern Lebanon, where, as
01:35you noted, not only have they sent in troops to fight Hezbollah, since Hezbollah joined in this war on the
01:42side of Iran, its main backer, on the 1st of March.
01:46They're sending in troops trying to push Hezbollah north to prevent rockets reaching deep into Israel.
01:51It's simply a matter of reducing the range of Hezbollah's remaining rockets, if the rocketeers have to fire them from
01:57further inland in Lebanon.
02:00They're also saying they want to prevent a resumption of the mass evacuations of northern Israeli communities that we saw
02:06in 2023-2024 under Hezbollah fire.
02:10Now they're saying Israeli civilians will stay put, Lebanese civilians will be displaced, somewhere in the order of 1 million
02:17have been displaced.
02:19And given long-standing allegations that, especially the Shia villagers, they've been providing cover in some cases for Hezbollah, as
02:26you noted,
02:26there's something of a scorched-earth tactic being employed against those frontline villagers.
02:33And, Dan, irrespective, it seems, of what happens with the Iran war, even if President Trump decides to wind things
02:40down there in the next two to three weeks,
02:42it still seems very likely that the Lebanon front is going to persist for some while.
02:48Do we have any indication of timeline out of Israeli officials to how long they foresee keeping and maintaining hold
02:57of this territory in southern Lebanon?
02:59Because, you know, you spoke about the displacement of up to 1 million people.
03:02It no longer seems to be a temporary displacement, but rather a more permanent one, which could have significant humanitarian
03:08impacts as well.
03:11Absolutely. And it's significantly added to internal pressure, economic pressure, political pressure on that beleaguered, western-tilted government in Beirut.
03:21The Israelis are definitely saying they see this while linked to the Iran war.
03:25After all, Hezbollah is an Iranian ally as a more protracted campaign, a campaign that should be divorced from the
03:31Iran war.
03:32I would imagine, they're not going to admit this, but should the Iran war end without Israel's objectives or aspirations
03:38vis-Ã -vis Iran being met,
03:40they will double down on trying to achieve something material and long-lasting in Lebanon.
03:45So, yes, that will last. It could be months. But history tells us it could be years as well.
03:49So, yes.
03:50I'm sorry.
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