00:00I've got to wonder whether the reason that the Israeli Prime Minister has turned his sights on Lebanon
00:05is because there was so much public backlash yesterday that Israel were not privy to the ceasefire discussions
00:12that took place between U.S. and Iran.
00:15Is this in reaction to some of that public sentiment?
00:20I think that might be reading too much into this.
00:23Keep in mind that quite aside from the disruption of life and the risks for life in Lebanon caused by
00:31such actions,
00:32and Israel does have an interest in keeping the Lebanon mainstream, if not on its side,
00:37then at least sufficiently neutral to be able to hold some kind of peace talks in the future.
00:43I do think Israel was involved in this.
00:45It's worth remembering that this truce came, dovetailed perfectly with the end of a Jewish holiday,
00:50the resumption of school studies that have now indeed resumed in much of the country, as well as flights.
00:56There are suggestions this wasn't such a surprise to Israel.
01:00However, you're correct in noting that the Lebanon Front is very important to Israel.
01:05It has been pretty much from the outset of this war in Iran, though it is the second front to
01:11this war.
01:12It has been eclipsed for much of the world by what's been going on in Iran,
01:15not so for millions of Lebanese, not so for millions of Israelis, given the sheer proximity there,
01:22the sheer stakes of having a continued friction point in southern Lebanon with a Hezbollah presence there.
01:28The question is whether by stepping up these attacks on what it says was new hiding places being used by
01:35Hezbollah
01:35in the Lebanese interior, including in residential areas, including around the capital,
01:41Israel, whatever was gained militarily here, is risking tipping the balance of latent support
01:48that actions against Hezbollah may have among the Lebanese mainstream.
01:52That remains to be seen.
01:54However, for weeks now, the Israelis have been saying that they will pursue the campaign in Lebanon
01:59independent of whatever develops in Iran, so we should not be surprised at all
02:04that the Israelis did not want Lebanon included in the ceasefire.
02:08They apparently got the United States to agree to its non-inclusion in the ceasefire,
02:13Trump said so explicitly, and they will continue to pursue that campaign in Lebanon
02:18to an end that may be a tall order, but the Israelis appear quite firm on pursuing it for now.
02:26I should say that the Lebanese Prime Minister also declared today a national day of mourning,
02:30given the very high death count that ensued on the back of those strikes yesterday.
02:36To your point about the ceasefire, I think there were a few hours yesterday morning
02:40where it was unclear for Lebanese and even Lebanese officials whether Lebanon was actually included
02:48in that regional ceasefire later transpired, that obviously from Israel's perspective,
02:54Lebanon was not part of the agreement.
02:56But what does this mean for the broader ceasefire agreement and whether it can actually hold?
03:04Because overnight the Iranians have said that unless Israel abide by the terms of the ceasefire
03:11terms that Iran put forward, which includes halting operations against Hezbollah,
03:17then in their eyes the ceasefire doesn't hold anymore.
03:22That's a very good point.
03:24It's worth noting, however, that J.D. Vance, who's heading up the U.S. delegation
03:28at these talks with Iran scheduled to take place on Saturday in Pakistan,
03:33or I should say the White House quite literally trashed those Iranian points, that 10-point plan.
03:40The White House spokeswoman saying they were thrown in the bin from the outset.
03:45So there's one thing to place demands and to publicize them around the world.
03:49It's quite another to argue that those demands were accepted at the outset by adversary before
03:55the talks have even begun.
03:58So, yes, I think as long as the Iranians aren't willing to upset this apple cart,
04:04to resume attacks fully against Israel, to carry out on their veiled threat to do so,
04:10over Lebanon, one should presume that truth talks will continue and that Lebanon will be excluded.
04:16This is now not only an Israeli claim, the exclusion of Lebanon.
04:21It is one also stated by the United States, which is not a small factor in these talks,
04:28which is a major player in these talks and in this war.
04:31So what you have is the allies who carried out the war being in agreement on this point about Lebanon
04:36versus Iran, potentially also Pakistan.
04:39The Pakistani prime minister also talked about Lebanon being excluded.
04:43The big question is, if this is a deal breaker for Iran, let's see it break the deal.
04:47For now, it does not appear to be doing so.
04:49For now, those talks in Pakistan appear to be on track.
04:53And I think we should at least watch the first round to see what happens.
04:57I would add, it's possible that the Israelis expect, and the Americans,
05:01that they will change their terms, in which case this would be the parting shot
05:05before Israel holds fire in Lebanon.
05:07So I don't know if that is Zhao Zongian, who is the King of Vietnam at the many people,
05:07The Israelis have adiscussion.
05:07The Israelis have a burden here, and they come to Jackie.
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