00:00Is it fair to assume that the front in Lebanon, Israel's war now with Hezbollah,
00:05is going to continue so long as the broader Iran war continues as well?
00:11Well, I think at this point, Israel's war on Hezbollah is unrelated to its war alongside with the U.S.
00:19on Iran.
00:20Now, this round of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah aims at uprooting Hezbollah.
00:26And the Israelis have made it very clear that they will not stop the war until they finish off Hezbollah
00:33as a fighting force.
00:37What does that actually mean?
00:39What does it actually mean to finish off Hezbollah as a fighting force?
00:43What is the ultimate trajectory?
00:45What does the future of Hezbollah look like?
00:50Well, at this point, I don't think Hezbollah has a future.
00:54Neither its military component nor its political component.
00:59Most Lebanese are outraged because Hezbollah started its front against Israel on October 8, 2023.
01:08And since then, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu pledged that by the time the war is over,
01:14he would defeat Hezbollah and transform the Middle East.
01:18Hezbollah has spread within the Lebanese Shiite community, and it has established grassroots.
01:28Therefore, defeating Hezbollah and eliminating Hezbollah is going to be an arduous task, and it will take some time.
01:34I wouldn't be surprised if the front between Hezbollah and Israel outlasts the war on Iran.
01:42Because, you know, as I mentioned, Hezbollah established grassroots within the Shiite community,
01:48who for the most part remain faithful and loyal to Hezbollah.
01:54Okay, let me just go back to 2024, the ceasefire that was negotiated.
01:59Shortly afterwards, we saw the removal of the Assad regime.
02:03And for a while, there was this understanding that perhaps that the linkages between Iran and Hezbollah had been severed.
02:11And you'd seen a massive decapitation, essentially, of Hezbollah leadership.
02:16But actually, what has transpired, and you fast forward to today, is you still have quite the presence and the
02:24influence of Iran, of the IRGC.
02:28There are reports that over the weekend, the IRGC were also being transferred out of Lebanon as well.
02:33How did that happen over the course of the last 18 months?
02:39Well, you know, Assad's regime was overthrown.
02:46And Hezbollah became, I mean, turned to become a defensive force after its leadership, both military and political, was eliminated.
02:58Now, the problem for Hezbollah is that it's unable to dissociate itself from the Iranian regime.
03:06Hezbollah subscribes to Iran's rule by the juriscounsel, and for them, a command from the religious superiors in Iran is
03:17binding.
03:18And therefore, Hezbollah immediately opened a front against Israel after Israel and the U.S. assassinated the supreme leader a
03:27few days ago.
03:28So, I mean, the relationship between Hezbollah and Iran, even though the two sides have not been in contact for
03:39some time,
03:40and especially after last week's exodus of hundreds of Iranian officials and officers from Lebanon to Istanbul via a Russian
03:51military plane.
03:55Now, Hezbollah remains committed to the ideas of the Iranian revolution and its symbols,
04:04even though the two sides are disconnected because of the transformations in the region,
04:09especially the transformation in Syria and the turning of the Syrian regime into an enemy over the past 14, 16
04:20months.
04:22So, can I just ask you, you know, what hope there is for some of the diplomatic channels?
04:27We know that the Lebanese prime minister has reached out to the French president, President Macron,
04:32to work the diplomatic channels to bring the situation, to de-escalate the situation.
04:37How successful do you think those efforts are actually going to be?
04:43Well, the Israelis say there is no room for diplomacy at this point.
04:48They have repeatedly told the Lebanese government to shoulder its responsibilities and disarm Hezbollah.
04:54But the Lebanese army is unable and unwilling to take on Hezbollah because that would mean a civil war in
05:03Lebanon.
05:03True, Hezbollah is no match for Israel, but they are very well equipped to start a civil war in Lebanon.
05:13So, Israel understands that the Lebanese government and the army will not fight Hezbollah.
05:18Therefore, the Israeli prime minister said the other day that if Lebanon does not shoulder its responsibilities,
05:24then Israel will carry out the task of finishing of Hezbollah as a fighting force.
05:30And they have already begun this process.
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